Prediction Finals

[Daddoo]

Before the season started, I predicted we would finish 7th and lose our first final. I'm sticking with that as the "pass/fail" mark. We're definitely going to finish above 7th, so that's a win. If we're 5th and lose week one, that's still a win imo for this young team. If we get top 4 and lose both, that's still a big win in my book. If we win one, that would be flipping incredible and I'd party like its 1999. If we make it to the grand final, I'm calling off work and holding a week long party at my house. If we win the grand final, I'm quitting my job, buying a ticket to perth and coming down to party with everyone here.

So basically in all scenarios, I win.

 

[88mph]

Before the season started, I predicted we would finish 7th and lose our first final. I'm sticking with that as the "pass/fail" mark. We're definitely going to finish above 7th, so that's a win. If we're 5th and lose week one, that's still a win imo for this young team. If we get top 4 and lose both, that's still a big win in my book. If we win one, that would be flipping incredible and I'd party like its 1999. If we make it to the grand final, I'm calling off work and holding a week long party at my house. If we win the grand final, I'm quitting my job, buying a ticket to perth and coming down to party with everyone here.

So basically in all scenarios, I win.

Forget about season predictions.

We have proven we can beat the best, there's no excuses for not making the prelims.

 

[Purple Suit]

Honestly, the one place we don't want to play a final is at the SCG - given we haven't played there in a long time. I would give us a chance at the MCG, Gabba and of course at Optus, I wouldn't hold much hope at the SCG though, given it's a very different ground to anywhere else.

The good thing is we won’t play there till 2nd week of finals the absolute earliest, maybe prelim. Gives us a chance to win one first.

 

[Daddoo]

Forget about season predictions.

We have proven we can beat the best, there's no excuses for not making the prelims.

Except that we're an incredibly young team that has no experience playing finals footy. We have been building since JL took over and upper admin was changed. I will keep my preseason expectations as I believe this is where our team "should" be in their development, imo.

So for me, I have already deemed this season a success. Next year, my expectations will go up. Top four and win at least one final for them to earn a "pass". The following three years when our age demographic are in their prime, it's a flag (or two) or bust.

It's really about managing expectations. There's a difference between what to "expect" from the team and what you "want". I agree with you that we have beaten the best this year and it's not unreasonable to want a finals win. I want one too. But, imo, if you start changing your expectations from where the team should be overall in their development, you are setting yourself up for disappointment and heartache. which, again, is totally your right as a fan. It would be unfortunate if you end up here melting down with the rest who "make no excuses", "demand high standards" and "expect excellence", etc if we don't win a finals game. This is your right and I don't fault you for this. But I will be celebrating an entertaining season with a ton of great games, highlights, and performances regardless of what we do in the finals. I will remember Chappy's fist, Clark's and Brodie's breakout into the top players at their position, ending the Dee's winning streak, Serong's torn jumper during the Derby, Mundy's last season, and a ton more. Maybe back off and set your cruise control at 55mph instead of 88mph and enjoy the finals ride.

 

[Mr Cheese]

We're in this up to our eye-balls. Our defence is always going to keep us in games, and I think we're one of the better matchups for Geelong if we go with speed.

No idea what happens but, if we play to our best, there isn't one team that we can't mix it with. Needs a lot to go right, but same could be said for anyone.

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dockeroo]

I’ve always said if you find yourself in the top 4 after a home and away season all bets are off.
Forget all preseason expectations, premature timelines, young team, lose one to win one, all that usual crap you hear from clubs at times.

You just go all in to win the flag. Strap up the dodgy ankles and pop some injections into any sore shoulders or backs. Get all the best players possible on the field and get ready for war in week one of finals. It’s so hard to win a flag from outside the top 4, and it’s also so hard to finish top 4, we have done it what - 4 times in 27 years?
If you are lucky, you might get three top 4 finishes in a good premiership window. That all we got from 2010-2015 after all.

I want a crack at Geelong, in a qualifying final. Could even be in Marvel. I’m convinced they are beatable, and we match up well on them. Win that and you are looking at a prelim final at Optus and then it’s really on, it’s on like donkey Kong.

 

[freo1997]

Geelong first week at marvel..

Fire up the bus last week of September.

 

[Alfonz]

Honestly, the one place we don't want to play a final is at the SCG - given we haven't played there in a long time. I would give us a chance at the MCG, Gabba and of course at Optus, I wouldn't hold much hope at the SCG though, given it's a very different ground to anywhere else.

People think of the old SCG, but it has been lengthened and is about the same as the Gabba. They have real 50's marked now, whereas before they were 45m arcs. The camera angle is also very low and is deceptive, making it appear smaller. Playing area is only 1.7% smaller than Optus. SCG is shorter, but wider.

 

[Purple Suit]

I’ve always said if you find yourself in the top 4 after a home and away season all bets are off.
Forget all preseason expectations, premature timelines, young team, lose one to win one, all that usual crap you hear from clubs at times.

You just go all in to win the flag. Strap up the dodgy ankles and pop some injections into any sore shoulders or backs. Get all the best players possible on the field and get ready for war in week one of finals. It’s so hard to win a flag from outside the top 4, and it’s also so hard to finish top 4, we have done it what - 4 times in 27 years?
If you are lucky, you might get three top 4 finishes in a good premiership window. That all we got from 2010-2015 after all.

I want a crack at Geelong, in a qualifying final. Could even be in Marvel. I’m convinced they are beatable, and we match up well on them. Win that and you are looking at a prelim final at Optus and then it’s really on, it’s on like donkey Kong.

Geelong won’t be at Marvel as there won’t be enough Melbourne teams hosting to need to use Marvel.

Geelong locked in

Rest of top six between Dees, Collingwood, Brisbane, Swans, Freo.

Therefore Maximum of 3 VIC finals, 1 interstate. Thursday, Friday, 2 x Saturday.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

So what is our best path to a Prelim final - e.g. who do we barrack for this weekend.

We are likely to finish 4th or 5th as long as we beat the Giants - I see 4 most likely scenarios

1. Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond, Carlton
2. Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Fremantle, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, Carlton
3. Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
4. Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs

Obviously best scenarios are 1 and 2, and then beat Geelong, and probably play Melbourne, Brisbane or Richmond in the prelim.

If we lose to Geelong in 1 or 2, then I think scenario 1 is better, as we would play Brisbane in week 2, I feel more comfortable against them compared with the last time we played Melbourne at home.

3 and 4, I think are equal as we would end up playing Collingwood in week 2, and Sydney in Week 3.

So I guess going for scenario 1, barracking for Melbourne and Carlton to win, given they're 50-50 games, I'm discounting Saints beating Sydney.

It probably means if we are going to make the GF - it has to go through Sydney and the SCG, as much as I'd love to go to a prelim at the MCG if we don't host it at Optus.

 

[theGav56]

Except that we're an incredibly young team that has no experience playing finals footy. We have been building since JL took over and upper admin was changed. I will keep my preseason expectations as I believe this is where our team "should" be in their development, imo.

So for me, I have already deemed this season a success. Next year, my expectations will go up. Top four and win at least one final for them to earn a "pass". The following three years when our age demographic are in their prime, it's a flag (or two) or bust.

It's really about managing expectations. There's a difference between what to "expect" from the team and what you "want". I agree with you that we have beaten the best this year and it's not unreasonable to want a finals win. I want one too. But, imo, if you start changing your expectations from where the team should be overall in their development, you are setting yourself up for disappointment and heartache. which, again, is totally your right as a fan. It would be unfortunate if you end up here melting down with the rest who "make no excuses", "demand high standards" and "expect excellence", etc if we don't win a finals game. This is your right and I don't fault you for this. But I will be celebrating an entertaining season with a ton of great games, highlights, and performances regardless of what we do in the finals. I will remember Chappy's fist, Clark's and Brodie's breakout into the top players at their position, ending the Dee's winning streak, Serong's torn jumper during the Derby, Mundy's last season, and a ton more. Maybe back off and set your cruise control at 55mph instead of 88mph and enjoy the finals ride.

I think that given the length of a season modifying expectations is valid. So many variables and for us the injury list comparison between last season and this is enough to justify a different expectation. Similarly, if we do in fact lose all our forward for the finals my expectations would adjust.

Anyway, we're on track and our season is alive in September, which is one massive Snuff tick I reckon.

 

[Bigger]

A prelim in Sydney?

Remember when Heath Black

Heath Black

Age

44

Ht

178cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.9

4star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.4

4star

didn't even know where the 2006 prelim venue was? Glory days.

I genuinely don't give a rat's ase what happens in this finals series (as long as we don't get humiliated). The internal metric was finish top six with a home final. We've met our goal. Anything else is gravy.

(It would be nice, of course, to slather said gravy all over our fine, firm bodies and * the living bejesus out of anything that wanders in our path - soaked to our purple bones in intoxicating, powerful juices and just getting all up in amongst it - but that may just be thoughts I need to keep to myself.)

 

[Big Animal]

we went from 11 to probably 5. Couldn't ask for more than that. Richmond and similar followed the same trajectory with a GF the next year.

Would like to see a finals win or two preferably.

Just a bit disappointed we have given young mids and backs a good go yet we still persist rain, hail or shine with a bloke that is by all reports out the door, a perennially injured Tabs, and an out of form unfit Fyfe as talls up forward. Should have kept persisting with Treacy every other week as third tall, and why is Sturt not given the chance even on a game like this week where the opp doesn't care and is missing many players, and Tabs and Lobb (and Logue?) need a rest. I find it bizarre.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Before the season started, I predicted we would finish 7th and lose our first final. I'm sticking with that as the "pass/fail" mark. We're definitely going to finish above 7th, so that's a win. If we're 5th and lose week one, that's still a win imo for this young team. If we get top 4 and lose both, that's still a big win in my book. If we win one, that would be flipping incredible and I'd party like its 1999. If we make it to the grand final, I'm calling off work and holding a week long party at my house. If we win the grand final, I'm quitting my job, buying a ticket to perth and coming down to party with everyone here.

So basically in all scenarios, I win.

I’ve seen photos of your basement and I think we should come to you

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Finishing 4th and knocking the cats off in their home state again would be pretty sweet.

Realistically, however, we will more than likely finish 5th (or 6th if we lose), win a home final and then face probably Geelong, where we will be in with a sniff (I think the travel factor and them losing week 1 will prevent them going out in straight sets) or if we finish 6th play Brisbane and end up with a similar outcome

We have already exceeded expectations from the off-season and if we don't finish top 4, I sill feel like we are in with a shot at winning a couple of finals as our away record is pretty good - particularly in Victoria. Winning 3 on the road in a row is going to be tough regardless of where we finish.

 

[BStaff17]

Geelong first week at marvel..

Fire up the bus last week of September.

Marvel ???

Game will be at MCG

 

[Purpletown]

We have exceeded my expectations by far in 2022 and it feels so good to have been wrong.

Win this weekend against GWS and if Carlton win we are possibly in the top four.

With our away record in 2022 I feel results have shown we are very capable of winning in Melbourne against good teams but on the other hand we have been less than convincing at home so perhaps the venue is not such an issue this season.

Provided we don't get the finals jitters we are certainly capable of giving a good account of ourselves.

From here we need to win at least one final to judge the season as a success.

 

[Square Peg]

My final prediction, in order of most to least likely for the games this weekend:

Freo, Carlton and Sydney win = 4th

Freo, Collingwood and Sydney win = 5th

Freo lose, nothing else matters = 6th

Freo, Carlton and Saints win = 3rd

Freo, Collingwood and Saints win = 4th

All other bizarro results with draws do my head in and are not further contemplated

 

[CapitalA]

Marvel ???

Game will be at MCG

Not if Collingwood, Carlton or Richmond are matched up.

 

[BStaff17]

Not if Collingwood, Carlton or Richmond are matched up.

Thursday night final more likely. Due to week off

So 3 finals in 3 days at MCG with Sydney, Brisbane will host one as well if we are 4th.

 

[Bigger]

"Freo, Carlton and Saints win = 3rd"

On their day, any one of these three would comfortably vie for being the flakiest team in the comp. Historically, Melbourne belong here also.

But I need odds for this eventuality -


BECAUSE I AM GETTING ON!

 

[Tbonefreo]

I hope we get Carlton. Bloody hell that would be awesome

 

[BStaff17]

I hope we get Carlton. Bloody hell that would be awesome

95% it wont be Carlton if they make finals we should be 4th and wouldn't have to worry about them.

If we lose tomorrow we play Richmond.

 

[purplerunsdeep2]

First domino to fall for us

No draw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Square Peg]

"Freo, Carlton and Saints win = 3rd"

On their day, any one of these three would comfortably vie for being the flakiest team in the comp. Historically, Melbourne belong here also.

But I need odds for this eventuality -


BECAUSE I AM GETTING ON!

A multi for all three is paying about 8/1