Opinion Financial impact on structure of Port, the AFL and long lasting Covid issues

About time the clubs took back control. Shut down the corporate overhead of the AFL and distribute the proceeds. Go back to the old days. Clubs running things and no corporate overhead

The clubs running things saw half of them broke and the TV rights worth pennies towards the end of the 80’s.

The AFL and its independent commission has seen the game evolve into a national colossus.

It owns a billion dollar asset outright, has a nine-figure future fund, multimedia rights worth hundreds of millions and world class stadia dotted around the country from the associated revenue (MCG, Adelaide Oval, Optus Stadium).

Whether the executive or other departments (ie. assistant coaches, analysts) are too fat is neither here nor there when there’s zero incoming revenue anywhere.
 
Jul 1, 2014
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I hope that details are given to members soon regarding options for their memberships going forward. I suspect that they're delaying this until they work out when the league will start again.

Regardless of their reasoning, there has been a clear lack of transparency on this front which I can't say has impressed me.

Most people I suspect will be happy to continue their membership in full, but they need to share some more light here soon. Its already been 2 weeks since the season was suspended. I get clubs have been busy but don't cry that supporters are the heart of all clubs and then say next to nothing other than "we'll update you soon" when it comes to our memberships.
 
May 26, 2017
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The clubs running things saw half of them broke and the TV rights worth pennies towards the end of the 80’s.

The AFL and its independent commission has seen the game evolve into a national colossus.

It owns a billion dollar asset outright, has a nine-figure future fund, multimedia rights worth hundreds of millions and world class stadia dotted around the country from the associated revenue (MCG, Adelaide Oval, Optus Stadium).

Whether the executive or other departments (ie. assistant coaches, analysts) are too fat is neither here nor there when there’s zero incoming revenue anywhere.
The key here is balance. There are a lot of negatives as well.
 
Tom Browne reported on the Hot Breakfast this morning that the AFL are likely to cap how much money club's are allowed to spend on administration.

These cuts are being made due to the dire financial situation the league finds itself in as a result of a suspended season. This means that many more jobs in the industry are likely to be cut.

It is also likely to impact the big clubs with larger membership bases and off-field commitments. Browne & Eddie McGuire explained the implications on the industry.

 

Lawnchair Larry

Cancelled
Apr 1, 2015
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Attempted to estimate the approx maximum number of confirmed cases we might see given the sfforts we have made to suppress the disease.
Looked at 3 models and projected what might be the maximum number of cases we see, based on the data generated before day 68 (vertical line in plot below).
3 models: Hill distribution (often used to monitor progression of the disease state), Weibull distribution, modified Corrigan Gallagher distribution.
Based on data before day 68 the Weibull distribution is U/S.
Somewhere between 6200 and 6900 look realistic based on other models
Say 20% experience breathing difficulties: maybe 1240 - 1380 people.
Say mortality rate is 4%: 50 - 63 people.
In saddest possible way, hope these are the maximum limits.
Maximum Predicted Confirmed Cases 050420.jpg
 
Attempted to estimate the approx maximum number of confirmed cases we might see given the sfforts we have made to suppress the disease.
Looked at 3 models and projected what might be the maximum number of cases we see, based on the data generated before day 68 (vertical line in plot below).
3 models: Hill distribution (often used to monitor progression of the disease state), Weibull distribution, modified Corrigan Gallagher distribution.
Based on data before day 68 the Weibull distribution is U/S.
Somewhere between 6200 and 6900 look realistic based on other models
Say 20% experience breathing difficulties: maybe 1240 - 1380 people.
Say mortality rate is 4%: 50 - 63 people.
In saddest possible way, hope these are the maximum limits.
View attachment 853348
Any of those distributions have a factor that allows from going from mild autumn to middle of winter in 50 days?

I think tomorrow's release of the federal government modelling will.
 

PowerBaz

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 13, 2014
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Of course it would, but its not the AFL that has to bang heads, but its the owner of the ground and has signed over management rights who has to do it. If there is a force majeure clause in all the agreements between the government and the SANFL and SACA its relatively straight forward to say we have renegotiate the deal for the next 5 years.

The club should be using this situation to highlight we should be able to become stronger financially from game day rather than live in the edge whist we gift money elsewhere, really annoys me that I feel we must come across like Nth Melbourne yet get plenty of crowds to game day we’ll beyond half the Vic clubs.
Not sure the current admin would want to rock the boat.
 
Jul 1, 2014
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Any of those distributions have a factor that allows from going from mild autumn to middle of winter in 50 days?

I think tomorrow's release of the federal government modelling will.

Its going to be very interesting to see how they portray the modelling. Its abundantly clear that the measures put in place so far have been working, but there's no doubt more to do. I'm intrigued to see whether they push the "if you don't do x y z then thousands of lives will be lost" or if they try to provide a more balanced approach.

My cousin is quite a good data analyst for Telstra and she was telling me on Friday that pretty much every data analyst in the Australian workforce has been given access to the raw data to provide their input. Because of the nature of the illness in that it is new, projections are likely to be at both extremes of the scale simply because there are not enough data points to accurately project with any kind of certainty.
 
Is there a chance that reduced game time would allow the league to expand the season? More games would mean more revenue, and 24-match season doesn't seem excessive...
They will struggled to get 17 rounds in. Grounds where cricket is played will become unavailable for the T20 World Cup if they have to play once it starts, ie 18 October to 15 November. Perth Stadium, Adelaide Oval, MCG, Geelong, Hobart, SCG and Gabba in Brisbane all will be out of action.
 
Aug 15, 2015
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Is there a chance that reduced game time would allow the league to expand the season? More games would mean more revenue, and 24-match season doesn't seem excessive...

its a compromised season in any case, in my view its better to just abandon it and hopefully start fresh next year.

any footy that takes place might have a feel good vibe for a couple of weeks, but have all the overall significance of AFLX
 
May 26, 2017
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They will struggled to get 17 rounds in. Grounds where cricket is played will become unavailable for the T20 World Cup if they have to play once it starts, ie 18 October to 15 November. Perth Stadium, Adelaide Oval, MCG, Geelong, Hobart, SCG and Gabba in Brisbane all will be out of action.
its a compromised season in any case, in my view its better to just abandon it and hopefully start fresh next year.

any footy that takes place might have a feel good vibe for a couple of weeks, but have all the overall significance of AFLX
This season, if we manage 17, that would be great. If I were to bet, I would go for unders, though.

I was thinking from 2021 onwards.
 
This season, if we manage 17, that would be great. If I were to bet, I would go for unders, though.

I was thinking from 2021 onwards.
Ok. But it is still a Maybe. Most grounds have to be handed over by a certain date for cricket. Eg AO Footy has control 15th March to 7th October and cricket after that. Other cricket grounds maybe be more flexible but not much more than that.
 
Jul 1, 2014
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Is there a chance that reduced game time would allow the league to expand the season? More games would mean more revenue, and 24-match season doesn't seem excessive...

I would love to see more matches without a finals series, premier league style (and every other soccer league style really outside of MLS and the A League). That being said, Australia has a culture whereby finals are an essential part of sport.

I personally would like to see a 16 team comp, each team to play twice (home and away), with a top 8 finals series.

Would get rid of North and St. Kilda. Would like to cut it to 14 and get rid of Gold Coast and another Victorian club, but given the TV deal you have to have 2 clubs in QLD.

I do wonder if some players push for the 16.5 minute quarters to remain, if the AFL pushes for more games in the coming years of the new broadcast deal.
 

Granny Duurs is Lovely

All Australian
Jun 11, 2019
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Any of those distributions have a factor that allows from going from mild autumn to middle of winter in 50 days?

I think tomorrow's release of the federal government modelling will.

I doubt this will be built into the core of any models as this isnt confirmed to impact Covid 19. I expect they'll be presented as 'best', 'worst' and 'most likely' cases. Worst case would include increase in cases / case severity due to winter.
 
I doubt this will be built into the core of any models as this isnt confirmed to impact Covid 19. I expect they'll be presented as 'best', 'worst' and 'most likely' cases. Worst case would include increase in cases / case severity due to winter.
Any decent model will have plenty of variables. Covid-19 is a respiratory illness so it would be a useless model if didn't account for the effect of winter on people's respiratory system.

This is what the NZ modelling said on page 6. The reproductive rate of the virus, or R[SUB]0[/SUB], measures the average number of secondary infections caused by a single case.


Parameter
Seasonality effect

Baseline value/s used
Variation in R₀ of 25%

Worse case values
50% (ie, accelerating the epidemic further in the NZ winter; peak on day 137)

Details for inputs into the CovidSIM model and additional Excel-based analyses (for the baseline analyses in the 23 March Report for the Ministry of Health)
Winter conditions are known to accelerate transmission of influenza and also the other coronaviruses which cause common cold like symptoms [24]. Enveloped viruses show strong seasonality with winter peaks [25], and SARS-Cov-2 is an enveloped virus. Even though there are many uncertainties relating to seasonality and this novel coronavirus [26], it seems prudent to assume some seasonal fluctuation so we increased the average by 25% in winter and reduced it by 25% in summer (with a sinusoidal variation throughout the simulated year), using a mid-winter peak for NZ of 15 July (ie, day 106 of the simulation)

Notes
24. Killerby ME, Biggs HM, Haynes A, Dahl RM, Mustaquim D, Gerber SI, et al. Human coronavirus circulation in the United States 2014-2017. J Clin Virol. 2018;101:52-56.
25. Price RHM, Graham C, Ramalingam S. Association between viral seasonality and meteorological factors. Sci Rep. 2019;9:929.
26. Cohen J. Why do dozens of diseases wax and wane with the seasons—and will COVID-19? Science 2020;(13 March). https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozensdiseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19.
 
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PowerBaz

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 13, 2014
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So if we end up needing Financial assistance out of this s**t show from the AFL, surely that will give them control over club decisions, I wonder what the game in China will be like for us when it resumes, will it resume?
I see the Crows are going it alone with funding, can i assume we won’t be doing that?

The more control the AFL can’t be a good thing.
 
Mar 1, 2014
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Kochie this morning's press restating that Port would sign up for an AFL rescue package. This from this morning's press...

Port Adelaide renegotiated loans with Bank SA, totalling $4.75 million in 2018 to be payable in 2021, which the AFL provides a guarantee for.
The Power have been contacted for comment whether it will try and be an “unassisted” club.
Port Adelaide president David Koch said on radio it would take up the AFL’s offer.
“We have signed on to the program,” he said on FIVEaa.
“We have no idea how much we are going to need.”
 
Kochie this morning's press restating that Port would sign up for an AFL rescue package. This from this morning's press...

Port Adelaide renegotiated loans with Bank SA, totalling $4.75 million in 2018 to be payable in 2021, which the AFL provides a guarantee for.
The Power have been contacted for comment whether it will try and be an “unassisted” club.
Port Adelaide president David Koch said on radio it would take up the AFL’s offer.
“We have signed on to the program,” he said on FIVEaa.
“We have no idea how much we are going to need.”

To be expected.

SANFL bled us dry. AFL will keep us afloat but impotent.

Koch can’t take us any further than dependant on AFL House.
 
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