Finishing 17th or 18th - your preference?

Finish 17th or 18th?


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    68
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119others

Premium Platinum
Apr 19, 2018
290
419
AFL Club
Adelaide
I truly believe the large amount of benefits finishing last outweigh any negatives from our first spoon. Especially this year. Major benefits:

- Clearly pick 1 - we choose whoever we like. The best available player in the talent pool.
- Pick 2 - if Crouch leaves gives us the option to optimise and controlling favoured selection outcomes (eg say one M/F and one KPP)
- Leverage power of 1 and 2, to get draft concessions potentially from Bullies by not bidding on JUH
- Leverage pick 2 threat to Swans to aim for a pick swap of Crows pick 2 and 2nd round pick (either this year or next) for Swans pick 4 and 1st sound 2021
- PSD threat when negotiating possible multiple deals in the off-season (think GCS screwing us over with Greenwood last year). Linked already to Hately and Caldwell this is a negotiating tactic that can be used more than once if played correctly.
- Gives us pick 19 (before distortions) and possibly (probably) pick 20 with Atkins to GCS. These are VERY valuable picks. Look at previous years and what Brissie gave up to get the first selection in the second round last year to Power who did well in leveraging this.

A number of above points - Swans potential first selection in 2021 and also pick 19 and 20 trading onwards for 2021 picks helps provide deep value picks in a midfield rich draft containing Horne (and I believe) a few other SA M/F's next year but will leave further commentary to the draft experts.

Will be very disappointed to not finish 18th for the above reasons. All I care about in that 3-5 years from now is having a flag capable squad. There is NO doubt finishing 18th and the many advantages helps speed up the process, especially as recent form may point to us not being one of the very bottom teams next year (Kangas, Hawks, Swans all seemingly now worse prospects in 2021) so we may not finish with a very high end draft pick next year.

Email below to Senior Management (CEO, COO etc), Directors, List Managers and all Coaches the other night spells it all out in further detail. All such employees and Directors acutely aware of the benefits as outlined above. I was jokingly told ' I must have been 'bugging their office' with the detail below :)

Interested in other fans thoughts here?



Evening Ladies & Gents


Below is a 7 pillar strategy, involving one-off competitive advantages available to the AFC in 2020, needing to be very strongly leveraged in my view. We have been screwed over time and time again by the AFL and other clubs in numerous ways – time for karma to catch up 😊

I would appreciate 5 mins of your time to read the below.

The club has been through a lot and ALL of the below looks at moving forward, leveraging some unique advantages this year. I am sure theres much other off-field stuff also being done (assistants etc) – the below is purely from a draft and trade strategy and I would like to think you are 100% over every point already.

Key strategies



  1. Ensure we finish bottom (which clearly is likely but not yet fait accompli) – the benefits far outweigh the negatives as outlined below. As a passionate fan all I care about is future success. Finishing 17 or 18 this year makes not an iota of difference. The below strategies are prefaced based on finishing bottom. Failure to do so, severely compromises most of the following.
  2. Pick 2 for B Crouch (assumes the AFL can confirm this prior to finalising the matter). Pick 2 and the leverage it involves far EXCEEDS the value of pick 2 itself. If pick 2 not available for BC, must be tempting to keep him. Re Atkins – if he really is getting 450-500k for 4-5 years from GC then that gives us pick 20 (in pure terms) – a great result for us and he is clearly gone.
  3. Use the threat of PSD for obtaining required players for UNDERS (see H Greenwood to GC last year). This threat can be used on MULTIPLE occasions if leveraged correctly. As a minimum pick up one required player (Hately or Caldwell for example if needed through this means). We should now have salary cap room to start to compete for such players that we haven’t had in recent years. We are traditionally portrayed as being ‘Mr Nice Guy’ in the AFL – time to change this perception to our advantage?
  4. Pick 1 – threaten to use on JUH unless Bullies come to the table with a mutually advantageous trade to share the points (Crows to own majority of points benefit) if we DON’T bid on JUH with either pick one or 2 (623 points after ‘NGA ‘discount’ saved if JUH is bid on pick 3 at earliest instead of pick 1). We completely control this outcome. We all know they screwed us with the A Keath trade last year so take ’no prisoners’ please. They come to the party or we bid #1 on JUH.

Otherwise #1 on Hamishs and Justins preference. With Himmelbergs recent ascension if that means we go Vic country midfielder (Hollands) instead I leave that to our experts who have consistently nailed the draft overall in the last 10-13 years with the help of Matty Rendell – any chance we can give him a gig again reporting to Hamish?

  1. Pick 2 – now this is the interesting one for me. Assuming we want another KPP and equally happy with Thilthorpe (rather than Mc Donald or another KPD in Barras ) then it seems likely Thilthorpe may go 4-6. We need to convince Swans we are going to BID on Swans academy player Campbell here (who personally looks like a top 2 midfielder to me anyway). We need Swans to TRADE their very likely current PICK 4 as they now play Lions and Cats (pick 4 in ‘pure’ terms, before distortions kick in), and we in return give them PICK 2 to get either Phillips, Mc Donald or Barras AND their own Gun Academy player). What would the trade look like….We have last years similar GWS trade as a template. Crows give up pick 2 and a second round pick 2021 (or one of our second rounders this year) for Swans pick 4 AND the Swans first pick next year. Clearly the Swans are in rebuild mode, Buddy cooked and along with Kangas and Hawks (and probably ourselves) look likely bottom 4-5 teams next year.
  2. If we end up with both pick 19 and 20 (Atkins) as per previous years these picks are VERY valuable to start the 2nd round of drafting (especially if held over 2 nights again – not sure if draft over 2 nights again, or at least an extended break between rounds one and two if held the same night?) Our feral friends down the road at Alberton leveraged pick 19 brilliantly last year and we can do the same – keep at least ONE if not BOTH until trade night to get into next years draft to gain maximum benefit for teams scrambling to pick up a player that unexpectedly slipped from first round.
  3. Position ourselves again for deep drafting in the midfield rich 2021 draft, including Souths Jason Horne. SA’s best pure midfielder for well over a decade? Trading with Swans as per above and/or using pick 19/20 to roll into a lucrative 2021 draft pick will help enable this,

Realistically with the above AND having gained high value picks for next years draft we could end up with Hollands (#1), Thilthorpe (#4, or #2 if no trade), another speedy mid or 2 with picks gained from GWS first round this year and possibly Bullies first rounder as per above. Plus we bring Hately home and incentivise Caldwells (both contenders for first pick in 2018 when we picked Jones I would have thought and commanding salaries GWS cant easily match 280-400k per year) with $ and their previous strong relationship with Nicksy (deal probably involves giving GWS back their first this year and us maybe chucking in a second rounder somewhere). And then we have our NGA/FS that we choose – Edwards (?), Borlase and the seemingly exciting Newchurch who hopefully has been tanking his defensive pressure in recent weeks.

With seemingly some obvious outs - Gibbs, Atkins, Knight, Poholke, Wilson, Davis, B Crouch (?) and even wonder if a 29 yo B Smith who we all love but would be tempted for a top 15 type pick from a contender.. Lots of genuine elite talent brought in which after never bottoming out is what we now clearly need.



All the best and thanks for spending the time reading 😊
 
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Southerntakeover

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 21, 2006
29,996
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At vB temple...
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The imperative to avoid the spoon is silly old AFC mentality stuff that we need to get past. Premierships are all that matter. You're either taking steps towards your next premiership, or you're doing nothing.

We've been a club that's hung its hat on false accomplishments for too long. 'years making the finals' when we werent contending. Years without a wooden spoon. That's led to us being a club that really is only going to be thought about in terms of 'years since last premiership'.

Teams that are winning premierships don't think back with pain on their wooden spoons. Teams that don't win premierships don't feel good at the end of the day.
 

Dewy006

President: Will Hamill Fan Club
Oct 20, 2007
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18th, for all the reasons you outlined, it’s a no brainer.
 

ABAB

Premiership Player
Apr 3, 2018
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The imperative to avoid the spoon is silly old AFC mentality stuff that we need to get past. Premierships are all that matter. You're either taking steps towards your next premiership, or you're doing nothing.

We've been a club that's hung its hat on false accomplishments for too long. 'years making the finals' when we werent contending. Years without a wooden spoon. That's led to us being a club that really is only going to be thought about in terms of 'years since last premiership'.

Teams that are winning premierships don't think back with pain on their wooden spoons. Teams that don't win premierships don't feel good at the end of the day.
Years making the finals when we weren't "contending".....WTF????? We should have won a premiership in 2005/06 and snag one of 2012 or 2017, I call this contending. In a real AFL season then it will be very embarrassing winning the wood spoon but everyone know this isn't a real season so who cares.
 

Peter Doherty

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Dec 18, 2007
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The imperative to avoid the spoon is silly old AFC mentality stuff that we need to get past. Premierships are all that matter. You're either taking steps towards your next premiership, or you're doing nothing.

We've been a club that's hung its hat on false accomplishments for too long. 'years making the finals' when we werent contending. Years without a wooden spoon. That's led to us being a club that really is only going to be thought about in terms of 'years since last premiership'.

Teams that are winning premierships don't think back with pain on their wooden spoons. Teams that don't win premierships don't feel good at the end of the day.
You've misread the thread title, it's 'Finishing 17th or 18th - your preference?' Not, 'Finishing 9th or 18th - your preference?'.
 

VictorianCrow85

Club Legend
Jul 22, 2016
2,437
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AFL Club
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Don't really care either way.

We finish last and get pick 1 or we finish with 4 wins on the trot & take momentum into the offseason. Doesn't mention the nice little bonus of the last win being beating the reigning premiers on the eve of a finals campaign. Personally I think we'll lose to Richmond next week, our improvement has been great but don't quite know we'll be good enough to get over a team finals bound with more to play for.
 

hey shorty

TheBrownDog
Jun 15, 2005
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As KM said, we aren't really going to have a choice given who we play. Richmond will want to win, and will do so easily enough.

We maintain our recent competitive efforts and give a good account of ourselves, finish 18th with Pick 1 and 2.

Work hard in the summer and maintain the rate.
 

Southerntakeover

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 21, 2006
29,996
19,616
At vB temple...
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Years making the finals when we weren't "contending".....WTF????? We should have won a premiership in 2005/06 and snag one of 2012 or 2017, I call this contending. In a real AFL season then it will be very embarrassing winning the wood spoon but everyone know this isn't a real season so who cares.
It's remarkable, really, that you never accidentally stumble onto a good point.

Admirable consistency.
 

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Ramses Red

Senior List
Sep 29, 2014
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Spank me hard with that wooden spoon! Stud my derriere with your splinters of glory and let us bask in the joy of your spoils. We have toiled with withered sinew for many a year. Now be it our moment to feast on the freshly cut meats lay out before us.

I mean, I reckon it'd be good n sh*t if we win the farken spoon ya campaigners
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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I personally don't think it's all that much of a difference to be honest ie. finishing 17th or 18th.
2 key points:

1. This year, out of all the years, is going to be a hard one to make concrete calls on the best young talents. The Covid19 has caused footy to stop for months, and there isn't a continuity of games in the junior ranks to make good assessments like all the other years. So without knowing much about the top talents that are out there, I can imagine picks 1-5 will be kind of hazy to be absolutely confident on.

2. Whether we finish last or second from last, I think it was more important we have some winning momentum and a mood shift (from 13-straight-losses apathetic depression to 3 wins-in-a-row optimistic euthymia). This would now hopefully bring the playing group closer in bonding over the coming preseason, and get fans more chilled without absolute despair for the footy seasons to come.
 

FR0GGY

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Oct 9, 2004
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Though, ideal result would be North losing by 100+ points
Us beating Richmond

THen North being stripped of 1st round draft pick for tanking.
Get the benefits of winning the spoon without winning it.


.......

WHAT!??!? I cant dream!???!
Strip them of Melbournes pick as well whilst they are at it.
 

kirky

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 29, 2000
14,249
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AFL Club
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Just go for the win and see what happens. At least we go into the preseason with a bit more hope than we had a month ago.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app
Just 4 weeks ago we got spanked by the Bulldogs then followed up with a reasonably good effort against Geelong then the bye and now 3 wins on the trot.

We have ruined 2 teams chances of making finals and now get to test ourselves against the best team for the past 4 years (2017-2020). Rather ironic we are playing the Tigers and are likely to lose and win the spoon.

From where we were 4 weeks ago, I’m more confident of 2021 than I was previously.
 

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