Prediction First 6 Games

[Daddoo]

Brisbane were 2-5 to start last season, losing to Freo, Carlton, Geelong, GWS, and Collingwood.

Someone remind me how their season ended. I forget....

Two of the losses were to teams who wouldn't make finals and one they would eventually beat in the GF.

My point is I won't be concerned unless they go 0-6 or 1-5. We have a very favorable opponent schedule (and travel schedule) in the middle of the season where we could make up ground, if necessary. I'm looking forward to the ride.

 

[Lach72]

We can fix Sydney up.

Their forwards are shite

 

[poshman]

Brisbane were 2-5 to start last season, losing to Freo, Carlton, Geelong, GWS, and Collingwood.

Someone remind me how their season ended. I forget....

Two of the losses were to teams who wouldn't make finals and one they would eventually beat in the GF.

My point is I won't be concerned unless they go 0-6 or 1-5. We have a very favorable opponent schedule (and travel schedule) in the middle of the season where we could make up ground, if necessary. I'm looking forward to the ride.

Of all of those WCE is the danger game. It will be a sign of us maturing if we grind that out without too much fuss. I think they will win 7-8 games this season. We can't be one of them.

4-2 with our middle season schedule will see us locked in the top four.
If we go 5-1 we will be top two and have a ridiculous percentage. We are going to hand out some beatings this year.

 

[theGav56]

Of all of those WCE is the danger game. It will be a sign of us maturing if we grind that out without too much fuss. I think they will win 7-8 games this season. We can't be one of them.

4-2 with our middle season schedule will see us locked in the top four.
If we go 5-1 we will be top two and have a ridiculous percentage. We are going to hand out some beatings this year.

If we lose to WC I think Longmuir should be instantly dismissed.

We're trying to win a premiership and in their current state of rebuild we are gifted 2 games against them. Our list is superior. Our development is way ahead.

I'm not meaning that we should just chalk up the win. I'm saying we simply cannot allow for anything but a winning performance.

Would it be fair to lay a loss on the coach? You bet it would.

 

[poshman]

If we lose to WC I think Longmuir should be instantly dismissed.

We're trying to win a premiership and in their current state of rebuild we are gifted 2 games against them. Our list is superior. Our development is way ahead.

I'm not meaning that we should just chalk up the win. I'm saying we simply cannot allow for anything but a winning performance.

Would it be fair to lay a loss on the coach? You bet it would.

I agree - and after WCE last season and North the year before in my mind it would be the end of the road. I would even look at the captain in that instance as well.

It simply cannot be a pattern.

 

[anchor man]

If we are going to be the team we want us to be, then we must win the first six games.
To say the Eagles are a danger is fantasy. I know they belted us last season, but have they improved that much!!
We play well at Alphabet park and Cats don't seem to worry us.
Home games Sydney, Dogs and Tigers ar e must wind .None of them should beat us here at home.And could, aprat from the crowd factor , beat the Yeallas at Perth Stadium.
And Melbourne should not be a worry to us.
If, we drop one of those six, it can not be against the Yellas.Can not be.

 

[Andy Brennan]

If we are going to be the team we want us to be, then we must win the first six games.
To say the Eagles are a danger is fantasy. I know they belted us last season, but have they improved that much!!
We play well at Alphabet park and Cats don't seem to worry us.
Home games Sydney, Dogs and Tigers ar e must wind .None of them should beat us here at home.And could, aprat from the crowd factor , beat the Yeallas at Perth Stadium.
And Melbourne should not be a worry to us.
If, we drop one of those six, it can not be against the Yellas.Can not be.

Have we improved that much? We've traditionally been a team that loses the 'unloseable'

 

[anchor man]

Have we improved that much? We've traditionally been a team that loses the 'unloseable'

That is what I am saying, If we are going to be the team we want, then they have to win all of those games.
Have we improved.... I believe we have. Bolton though only one player will give us the difference we needed.
I see Simpson having an influence as the season goes on, Same as Reid.
But we have to make sure tht DArcy stays fit, and that means no injuries.To me he is our most vital player.Reidy, at the moment, is far from an answer.
We can not afford to run Jackson as our number one ruck and Treacy as our second string.

 

[theGav56]

If we are going to be the team we want us to be, then we must win the first six games.
To say the Eagles are a danger is fantasy. I know they belted us last season, but have they improved that much!!
We play well at Alphabet park and Cats don't seem to worry us.
Home games Sydney, Dogs and Tigers ar e must wind .None of them should beat us here at home.And could, aprat from the crowd factor , beat the Yeallas at Perth Stadium.
And Melbourne should not be a worry to us.
If, we drop one of those six, it can not be against the Yellas.Can not be.

I like sport that is competitive and we come up against key rivals in that period. Sydney and Geelong are peers in terms of competing for the premiership. Bulldogs as well although there is some turmoil there.

To me it is quite different to drop a game against those clubs compared to WC or Richmond, and a win perhaps more highly prized beyond banking 4 points. It's 4 points less for them for starters.

Being ruthless in WA is definitely important.

But I can't see us going 6-0. Happy days if we do.

 

[theGav56]

Have we improved that much? We've traditionally been a team that loses the 'unloseable'

Yes we have shown signs of mental weakness in the past and it has effected our performance.

I know there has been a lot of talk about going after recruits of good character. I don't think that's about Boy Scout behaviour per se. I think it incorporates and is primarily about mental toughness and it is definitely a requisite for us to be successful.

I think it is there to be harnessed in this group.

 

[Mogumber]

We won't win the first 6, no chance

 

[Joao]

We won't win the first 6, no chance

There's always a chance. If you assume 50/50 in each game it would be ~1.5%

 

[Mogumber]

Won the first 9 in 2015, and kicked over 100 points five times in those 9 games,
Can't see it happening with this young team. I reckon our mids are a bit o/rated, the top ones are very good, but the relief are still learning

 

[theGav56]

Won the first 9 in 2015, and kicked over 100 points five times in those 9 games,
Can't see it happening with this young team. I reckon our mids are a bit o/rated, the top ones are very good, but the relief are still learning

I agree re the mids. Young missing is the stuff of sleepless nights. Darcy too. Amiss seems a bit low key.

Across the board we have good availability, but we're still vulnerable until we show we're not.

 

[Minz]

I agree - and after WCE last season and North the year before in my mind it would be the end of the road. I would even look at the captain in that instance as well.

It simply cannot be a pattern.

I walked a patient through my department the night of that Norf game. He was watching the game; when I saw the final score, I said, out loud and involuntarily, “F***ing Fremantle!”.

He was startled. It’s a wee bit embarrassing to do such things when you’re the doctor

 

[King Huskii]

Geelong. Loss
Sydney. Win
WC. Win
WB. Win
Rich. Win
Melb. Win

I think maybe we beat Geelong but hard to say so leaning towards the cats

5 n 1 start with Adelaide and Saints coming up. Could be 7 and 1

 

[oldgoat]

Geelong. Loss
Sydney. Win
WC. Win
WB. Win
Rich. Win
Melb. Win

I think maybe we beat Geelong but hard to say so leaning towards the cats

5 n 1 start with Adelaide and Saints coming up. Could be 7 and 1

Eight Zip!
Every match stands alone...
We can beat EACH of them.

 

[Alfonz]

There's always a chance. If you assume 50/50 in each game it would be ~1.5%

I would guess 0.35 x 0.65 x 0.95 x 0.65 x 0.95 x 0.5 = 6.7% chance.

The 0.35 is the current odds with the bookies for our first game. Reversed it for some others, plus two almost sure things and then a 50/50 away game.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I would guess 0.35 x 0.65 x 0.95 x 0.65 x 0.95 x 0.5 = 6.7% chance.

The 0.35 is the current odds with the bookies for our first game. Reversed it for some others, plus two almost sure things and then a 50/50 away game.

Probability is a more realistic way of looking at it, and while it happens absolute streaks of wins aren't that common.

It does show that it's pretty optimistic to insist we should win the first 6-8 games even if we were favourites in all of them.

I'd rather us in top notch form at the end of the year anyways

 

[Vimal Anand]

Freo, 5-and-0? Beat the Cats and you’re in business

If the Dockers can topple Geelong on their home turf, then there is no reason why they cannot start the season 5-0, writes Mitchell Woodcock.

thewest.com.au

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Big Animal]

beat Geelong and it will be 6 wins. If that occurs, I have our first loss against GWS in Sydney R10

 

[BREATHLESS_987]

Yuck. This thread is starting to sound exactly like the start of 2023 when, after winning a final the proceeding year, we had the Saints and North first up, and all the talk was how we were a certainty to go undefeated for the first month.

 

[Big Animal]

Yuck. This thread is starting to sound exactly like the start of 2023 when, after winning a final the proceeding year, we had the Saints and North first up, and all the talk was how we were a certainty to go undefeated for the first month.

meh. It's irrelevant what we think. We're just fans. We have no influence anyway over the results except for a bit of noise at the home games. Let us enjoy our hopium in peace.

 

[Joao]

Yuck. This thread is starting to sound exactly like the start of 2023 when, after winning a final the proceeding year, we had the Saints and North first up, and all the talk was how we were a certainty to go undefeated for the first month.

I'm embracing the hype. I'm not going to be any less disappointed as I know internally I expect us to step up this year.

 

[BREATHLESS_987]

FWIW I'm all aboard the high expectations train. I just think teams (all teams) unexpectedly lose games in the first quarter of the year that have very little resemblence to where things sit come the end of the year. See hawks and Brisbane last year as extreme examples.