First club to 17 premierships?

Who will be the first club to 17 premierships?


  • Total voters
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Major Colvin

Premiership Player
May 8, 2006
4,645
3,135
AFL Club
Melbourne
Incredible that Collingwood have played in 44 Grand Finals (including the draws). 60% winning ratio over their history but only 45% in finals. Still probably can claim most consistent club over their AFL/VFL journey.
 

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Carringbush2010

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
13,381
8,152
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Collingwood are on 15 closer then richmond are and in a better positon then carlton (16) so its the pies
Really? Right now we're behind 17 clubs for our next flag.

Nah, we should already be there, in fact we should have another 10 in the cabinet. But in typical Collingwood fashion whenever we make the opportunity it's gun, foot then shoot.
 

mcgarnacle

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 2, 2003
9,045
3,281
AFL Club
Sydney
Incredible that Collingwood have played in 44 Grand Finals (including the draws). 60% winning ratio over their history but only 45% in finals. Still probably can claim most consistent club over their AFL/VFL journey.
Another way of looking at it is Collingwood have reached the Grand Final in 42 of the 123 seasons that there has been a VFL/AFL Challenge or Grand Final. In other words, they've contested 35% of all Grand Finals.

The next best is Carlton. They've reached the Grand Final 29 times in 123 seasons of VFL/AFL Grand Finals - 24% of all deciders.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Flag 17 Odds.JPG


Based on the table of probabilities posted earlier, I have updated with perceived odds for being the first to 17.

Essendon - slightly shorter than the base odds, because I believe they are a chance to sneak one with a few tweaks to their current list.
Carlton - they are still nowhere near it for mine, but could still be the first to 17 even if their next flag is 20 years away.
Collingwood - also nowhere near it with their current list, but do historically play in a lot of Grand Finals, so just need some luck to swing their way when they inevitably get there.
Hawthorn - Have stormed into contention and need another dynasty or two to get there.
Richmond - Can't see them contending again with their current list, so are reliant on rebuilding to contend again. Do they now have the formula right to do so?
Melbourne - talks of a dynasty with their current list is premature, but we'll see what the coming years bring. Certainly more likely than Richmond and Hawthorn to add to their tally in the short term.

It is then 'write your own ticket' for the remaining teams.
 

HTT

B2B
Sep 13, 2015
18,629
48,410
Hillary Step
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Richmond
Other Teams
76ers
In order of likelihood, it's pretty much in order of flags won so far - maybe for a couple of hours in 2018 Collingwood jumped ahead as a 16th flag looked imminent. Since 2000 11 clubs have won a flag, 6 have won multiple flags, 4 have won three or more, and 1 has won four. While it's worth noting the team that's won 4 is Hawthorn, it is clearly more likely in the next twenty years that either Essendon or Carlton get it together for one flag, than one of the three one 13 going on to win four more flags.

At the moment I'd put Essendon most likely as they've got a chance to contend in the next couple of years. Carlton a bit behind that, they still look like they've got some issues off field, but so do Collingwood who are next in line. If none of those get up, Melbourne would be next most likely as this team could really kick on and win a couple more flags very soon. Winning four more in this run is probably a bit far fetched, but winning two or three more is certainly within reach, and if they can do that, they put themselves in the conversation with the three ahead. Else they sit with Richmond and Hawthorn. Richmond and Hawthorn need to build another dynasty, or will need to go through multiple waves to get there, both of those are really hard to predict - if it's one of these two it will be as a result of Essendon and Carlton enduring serious droughts.
 

Pessimistic

Make me an Admin!
Sep 13, 2000
82,708
39,452
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Horks
Grand Final Winning Percentage - UPDATED

In order of #Premierships, then win %
Melbourne and Hawthorn have a wonderful strike rate in Grand Finals. Just to think these two clubs could have potentially merged in the 90s. Melbourne were happy to give up. Hawthorn had the conviction to continue alone. Melbourne wouldn't have this today if it weren't for Hawthorn making the hard decision for them.
Just to give Melbourne some slack it looked like a takeover for them(only the hawk and glenferrie would survive) funny that glenferrie is only ‘safe’ for Auskick these days
 

timokane

All Australian
Oct 2, 2018
829
636
AFL Club
Collingwood
Unable to see tigers bombers hawks winning one anytime soon. Im tipping melbourne again in 2022.

But as said before Collingwood have a tending to play in alot of grand finals though and its a matter or a case of winning one at last.

its on the day.

Feeling Collingwood need more players in their prime for that here and now flag.

Too many are either kids or too old like Pendles.

there no one in that middle age group.

Nice coaching panel now with fly leppa bolton with wright running the footy dept

I think the tigers have been found out essendon played a camio this year but 2022 may drop off and the hawks are having to re build for the first ever time.

Carlton are either hit or miss bit hot or cold. Good they have Voss as coach weather he will stay there for a while is another thing. A repeat of 2021 and he will leave. He demands instant success thats his style if its not he will walk.

like to see st.kilda to win it in 2022.
 

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CarnTheScray

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2019
4,966
6,053
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Since Essendon and Carltons last flags the Hawks have won 4 and Richmond have won 3. Yet to be seen if Melbourne win multiple.

Would bet my money on any of the teams in the list other than Essendon and Carlton easily.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
25,486
13,869
Parts Unknown
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Fremantle
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Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
yeah and I can see richmond hit the 17 flag mark before essendon and carlton does.

You will be surpised who i see will get to 17 flags before Carlton, essendon, richmond and collingwood.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
15,421
22,274
AFL Club
Essendon
It's a pointless exercise to try and predict who reaches 17 first.

Richmond certainly won't win 4 with this current group of players given that Dusty, Cotchin and Riewoldt aren't going to be here for long. For them, it's how well the likes of Ross, RCD and draftees come along. Or how well they trade. It's baseless to suggest they'll be the first given that Essendon and Carlton have better youth than Richmond at the moment.

Hawthorn are currently rebuilding so there's no point looking back to the Clarkson era. At this stage, their rebuild is behind Carlton and Essendon so there's no evidence they're building a premiership side let alone one that wins 4.

Melbourne funnily enough are more likely to win 4 than either of those two teams since their window will be open for a while.

Essendon and Carlton are still the most likely to reach 17 given that it's much easier to pinch 1 than to win 4. They're also both ahead of Collingwood in their rebuild.
As for which of the two wins the premiership first, I have no idea. If Carlton land Cerra and Hewett, then I think it could go either way. Both should enter their window around 2023-2024.
 
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timokane

All Australian
Oct 2, 2018
829
636
AFL Club
Collingwood
I think Collingwood will be a quick re build and could if all goes well with injuries and they keep it together make the finals in 2022
 

Juddernaut08

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 8, 2007
9,250
12,355
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Since Essendon and Carltons last flags the Hawks have won 4 and Richmond have won 3. Yet to be seen if Melbourne win multiple.

Would bet my money on any of the teams in the list other than Essendon and Carlton easily.
Seems like a dumb bet, but your money I suppose. Well, it won't be the dogs lol. Maybe first to 3 out of Saints/Dogs/Freo
 

Rasha

2017🏆 2019🏆 2020🏆
Aug 25, 2019
1,550
4,397
AFL Club
Richmond
oh Hell no.

Hawks or cats.

Saying that, I see Dusty and co get one more flag before Dusty retires. Another flag in that 2022-2024 period.
I wouldn't be surprised to see us pinch another flag with this list.
It'd be like Hawthorn's 2008-2015 era in reverse.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
25,486
13,869
Parts Unknown
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
I wouldn't be surprised to see us pinch another flag with this list.
It'd be like Hawthorn's 2008-2015 era in reverse.
I wouldn't be surprised either if Richmond win another flag with their current list.

Certain core players are good enough for one more decent shot.
 

Rasha

2017🏆 2019🏆 2020🏆
Aug 25, 2019
1,550
4,397
AFL Club
Richmond
I wouldn't be surprised either if Richmond win another flag with their current list.

Certain core players are good enough for one more decent shot.
Just as long as we don't lose a grand final if we happen to make it back there again.
We're the only team since Adelaide 1997-1998 to win flags and not lose any grand finals.
 

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