First club to 17 premierships?

Who will be the first club to 17 premierships?


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PonsfordMagpie

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 3, 2013
9,104
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Collingwood
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Chelsea
Those 6 club's would also dominate the runners up numbers I suspect. Just looking at Melbourne's flags we have won 11 against the other 5 in that list (6 against Collingwood, 4 Essendon, 1 Richmond).

Collingwood/Carlton, Richmond/Carlton, Carlton/Essendon would also be fairly common grand final matchups through the years. Hawks also had a couple against Essendon, a couple with Carlton and one with Melbourne in the 80s.
Most common GF matchups.

Melbourne (6) vs Collingwood (1) = (1926, 1939, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1964)

Collingwood (4) vs Richmond (2) = (1919, 1920, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1980)
Carlton (5) vs Collingwood (1) = (1910, 1915, 1938, 1970, 1979, 1981)
Richmond (4) vs Carlton (2) = (1921, 1932, 1969, 1972, 1973, 1982)
Carlton (3) vs Essendon (3) = (1908, 1947, 1949, 1962, 1968, 1993)
Melbourne (4) vs Essendon (2) = (1941, 1946, 1948, 1957, 1959, 2000)
Geelong (4) vs Collingwood (2) = (1925, 1930, 1937, 1952, 1953, 2011)

Collingwood (2) vs Fitzroy (2) = (1903, 1905, 1917, 1922)
Carlton (3) vs Sydney (1) = (1907, 1909, 1914, 1945)
Essendon (2) vs Collingwood (2) = (1901, 1902, 1911, 1990)

Fitzroy (2) vs Carlton (1) = (1904, 1906, 1916)
Collingwood (2) vs Sydney (1) = (1918, 1935, 1936)
Hawthorn (2) vs North Melbourne (1) = (1975, 1976, 1978)
Essendon (2) vs Hawthorn (1) = (1983, 1984, 1985)
Hawthorn (2) vs Geelong (1) = (1963, 1989, 2008)
Richmond (2) vs Geelong (1) = (1931, 1967, 2020)

Fitzroy (1) vs Essendon (1) = (1898, 1923)
Sydney (1) vs Richmond (1) = (1933, 1934)
Essendon (1) vs Richmond (1) = (1942, 1943)
Hawthorn (1) vs Carlton (1) = (1986, 1987)
West Coast (2) vs Geelong (0) = (1992, 1994)
Brisbane Lions (2) vs Collingwood (0) = (2002, 2003)
Sydney (1) vs West Coast (1) = (2005, 2006)
St Kilda (1) vs Collingwood (1) = (1966, 2010)
Sydney (1) vs Hawthorn (1) = (2012, 2014)
Hawthorn (2) vs West Coast (0) = (1991, 2015)
Western Bulldogs (1) vs Melbourne (1) = (1954, 2021)

Fitzroy (1) vs Sydney (0) = (1899)
Melbourne (1) vs Fitzroy (0) = (1900)
Essendon (1) vs Sydney (0) = (1912)
Fitzroy (1) vs St Kilda (0) = (1913)
Melbourne (1) vs Richmond (0) = (1940)
Fitzroy (1) vs Richmond (0) = (1944)
Essendon (1) vs North Melbourne (0) = (1950)
Geelong (1) vs Essendon (0) = (1951)
Hawthorn (1) vs Western Bulldogs (0) = (1961)
Essendon (1) vs St Kilda (0) = (1965)
Hawthorn (1) vs St Kilda (0) = (1971)
Richmond (1) vs North Melbourne (0) = (1974)
North Melbourne (1) vs Collingwood (0) = (1977)
Hawthorn (1) vs Melbourne (0) = (1988)
Carlton (1) vs Geelong (0) = (1995)
North Melbourne (1) vs Sydney (0) = (1996)
Adelaide (1) vs St Kilda (0) = (1997)
Adelaide (1) vs North Melbourne (0) = (1998)
North Melbourne (1) vs Carlton (0) = (1999)
Brisbane Lions (1) vs Essendon (0) = (2001)
Port Adelaide (1) vs Brisbane Lions (0) = (2004)
Geelong (1) vs Port Adelaide (0) = (2007)
Geelong (1) vs St Kilda (0) = (2009)
Hawthorn (1) vs Fremantle (0) = (2013)
Western Bulldogs (1) vs Sydney (0) = (2016)
Richmond (1) vs Adelaide (0) = (2017)
West Coast (1) vs Collingwood (0) = (2018)
Richmond (1) vs GWS (0) = (2019)

* Sydney played as “South Melbourne” before 1982.
 
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PonsfordMagpie

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 3, 2013
9,104
17,232
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Chelsea
It always surprises me that we’ve never met Carlton in a grand final. 29 flags and god knows how many appearances between us you’d think you’d get at least one.
The other two major non-GF matchups I can think of are Collingwood (15) vs Hawthorn (13) and Hawthorn (13) vs Richmond (13).

Collingwood and Hawthorn have a knack of always avoiding each other despite both clubs featuring regularly in Grand Finals over the past few decades.

1960 (Collingwood)
1961 (Hawthorn)
1962
1963 (Hawthorn)
1964 (Collingwood)

1970 (Collingwood)
1971 (Hawthorn)

1975 (Hawthorn)
1976 (Hawthorn)
1977 (Collingwood)
1978 (Hawthorn)
1979 (Collingwood)
1980 (Collingwood)
1981 (Collingwood)
1982
1983 (Hawthorn)
1984 (Hawthorn)
1985 (Hawthorn)
1986 (Hawthorn)
1987 (Hawthorn)
1988 (Hawthorn)
1989 (Hawthorn)
1990 (Collingwood)
1991 (Hawthorn)

2008 (Hawthorn)
2009
2010 (Collingwood)
2011 (Collingwood)
2012 (Hawthorn)
2013 (Hawthorn)
2014 (Hawthorn)
2015 (Hawthorn)
 

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Stabby McGee

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Jul 30, 2011
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The other two major non-GF matchups I can think of are Collingwood (15) vs Hawthorn (13) and Hawthorn (13) vs Richmond (13).

Collingwood and Hawthorn have a knack of always avoiding each other despite both clubs featuring regularly in Grand Finals over the past few decades.

1960 (Collingwood)
1961 (Hawthorn)
1962
1963 (Hawthorn)
1964 (Collingwood)

1970 (Collingwood)
1971 (Hawthorn)

1975 (Hawthorn)
1976 (Hawthorn)
1977 (Collingwood)
1978 (Hawthorn)
1979 (Collingwood)
1980 (Collingwood)
1981 (Collingwood)
1982
1983 (Hawthorn)
1984 (Hawthorn)
1985 (Hawthorn)
1986 (Hawthorn)
1987 (Hawthorn)
1988 (Hawthorn)
1989 (Hawthorn)
1990 (Collingwood)
1991 (Hawthorn)

2008 (Hawthorn)
2009
2010 (Collingwood)
2011 (Collingwood)
2012 (Hawthorn)
2013 (Hawthorn)
2014 (Hawthorn)
2015 (Hawthorn)
That one is probably more interesting as with us and Carlton we are up when they are down, and vice versa, but yours coincided for the 70s, early 80’s and early 90’s when you were both up.
Richmond and us are interesting too. 26 between and no finals against us for 80 years
 

Demonic Ascent

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 21, 2006
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It is because Colliwobbles was like 8 to 10 grand finals in a row, they failed out that people of those times, saw as The Colliwobbles.
Those wobblers supporters that followed there club from mid 60's through to their premiership drought of 1990, saw lots of wobbler Grand Finals where they did not win one.

As for Cats, it was not as long standing but they got the Kittyjitters between 1989 and 1995, four failed grand final attempts in seven seasons is going to cop a lot of ridicule. Essendon had a less famous one called Eliminitis where they failed in a lot of Elimination Finals in a row before getting beyond one in 1983.
Not only that but the Colliwobbles were Collingwood losing from seemingly unloseable positions
 

footyfan1978

Hall of Famer
Aug 27, 2014
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there are no other teams worthy
It always surprises me that we’ve never met Carlton in a grand final. 29 flags and god knows how many appearances between us you’d think you’d get at least one.
I believe Carlton and Melbourne met in many of the big games in the the seasons of 1870's before the VFL started up.
They were basically the big first rivalry in the early seasons if you read up about those early times of football seasons.
FootballRecord1917.jpg
 
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footyfan1978

Hall of Famer
Aug 27, 2014
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there are no other teams worthy
Not only that but the Colliwobbles were Collingwood losing from seemingly unloseable positions
Well yeah, certainly in 1970 they famously lost from 44 points up at half time.
I think they also lost a preliminary final or something a few years after that to Richmond from so called unloseable position.
By the time I started following footy and introduced to my first game of 1977 grand final, the term Colliwobble was common place. They kicked the first 5 goals in 1979 grand final against us on a very very wet and muddy day and still lost and then when they played us two years later in another grand final, lead by 21 points during time on of third quarter which I always remember well as a kid watching live at home as my thoughts in those exact moments, were sh*t 21 points down now is really getting in serious danger of losing and the only time I really got concerned during the day. But I soon was not worried, we kicked two quick goals to reduce margin to 9 points at three quarter time and the wobbles were a real thing for them so I knew we would win and did it by around 20 points in the end. By the time that great day was over they had the running tally of grand finals in 1960, 64, 66, 70, 77, 77, 79, 80 and 81 where they failed to win any of them.

2018 was a nice throw back to the past of how they played a role as the Colliwobbles, when they kicked first 5 goals against Eagles and still found a way to fail. It a shame it happens less often now
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
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Very optimistic including Melbourne, Hawthorn and Richmond in the count. A bridge too far expecting 3-4 flags in quick succession.

The only real contenders are the Pies, Essendon and Carlton.

Collingwood are currently in dire straights, rebuilding and need to cop a few flags to take it out.

Essendon haven’t got past Week 1 of finals since 2004.

The smart money is on the Bluebaggers.
 

Havoc

Debutant
Sep 8, 2019
131
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Richmond
That one is probably more interesting as with us and Carlton we are up when they are down, and vice versa, but yours coincided for the 70s, early 80’s and early 90’s when you were both up.
Richmond and us are interesting too. 26 between and no finals against us for 80 years
Richmond and Melbourne... have only played finals in the same season, once since 1941!!
 

Stabby McGee

All Australian
Jul 30, 2011
805
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Melbourne
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Richmond and Melbourne... have only played finals in the same season, once since 1941!!
Crazy eh? 2018. And were only a couple of years apart in the 60’s, then last year you’d have thought it was even money we’d meet in a final back in July.
I’d love to see us play off in the big one. I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for our junior co-tenants. Your supporters might all be a touch mad but for pure passion nobody gets close. Anzac eve is a sublime experience win lose or draw, and to see that on the big stage would be a story to tell the grandkids.
 

Demonic Ascent

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Feb 21, 2006
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Very optimistic including Melbourne, Hawthorn and Richmond in the count. A bridge too far expecting 3-4 flags in quick succession.

The only real contenders are the Pies, Essendon and Carlton.

Collingwood are currently in dire straights, rebuilding and need to cop a few flags to take it out.

Essendon haven’t got past Week 1 of finals since 2004.

The smart money is on the Bluebaggers.
Who says Melbourne, Hawthorn or Richmond would have to win 3-4 in quick succession? Carlton and Essendon have been stuck on 16 for over 2 decades and collingwood have won 4 flags since the 1930s.
 

theyellowsash

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 9, 2009
15,329
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Footscray
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Richmond
Very optimistic including Melbourne, Hawthorn and Richmond in the count. A bridge too far expecting 3-4 flags in quick succession.

The only real contenders are the Pies, Essendon and Carlton.

Collingwood are currently in dire straights, rebuilding and need to cop a few flags to take it out.

Essendon haven’t got past Week 1 of finals since 2004.

The smart money is on the Bluebaggers.
hawks have won 4 flags since either dons or blues last made a grand final, or even since essendon have won a final. Richmond went from the basketcase club and worse than fitzroy to triple flag dynasty in 7 years. The demons look likely to embark on a run which if it nets them 3 flags, will put them level with collingwood on 15. In another 15-20 years, either of richmond/hawthorn could have had another dynasty run to reach the 17, as could melbourne if we assume they net 3 this time. hawks probably the most likely, as they can only go up from here while we have only just started going down.

conversely, in 20 years collingwood will be 31 years without a flag, essendon will be 41 years, and carlton 46 years. That pales in comparison to the dogs, dees and stkilda's (still going) 60 year droughts, the swans 70+ years, and is on par with geelong and collingwoods 40 or so year droughts, and even our 35 year drought of even making a grand final at all.

point is, its entirely feasible that those 3 clubs wont win a flag within 20 years while hawks or tigers win 4. Less likely with melbourne, but theyre primed to win 2 more in say 5 years and only need another 2 in the remaining 15.
 

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La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
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Carlton
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hawks have won 4 flags since either dons or blues last made a grand final, or even since essendon have won a final. Richmond went from the basketcase club and worse than fitzroy to triple flag dynasty in 7 years. The demons look likely to embark on a run which if it nets them 3 flags, will put them level with collingwood on 15. In another 15-20 years, either of richmond/hawthorn could have had another dynasty run to reach the 17, as could melbourne if we assume they net 3 this time. hawks probably the most likely, as they can only go up from here while we have only just started going down.

conversely, in 20 years collingwood will be 31 years without a flag, essendon will be 41 years, and carlton 46 years. That pales in comparison to the dogs, dees and stkilda's (still going) 60 year droughts, the swans 70+ years, and is on par with geelong and collingwoods 40 or so year droughts, and even our 35 year drought of even making a grand final at all.

point is, its entirely feasible that those 3 clubs wont win a flag within 20 years while hawks or tigers win 4. Less likely with melbourne, but theyre primed to win 2 more in say 5 years and only need another 2 in the remaining 15.
Clubs (these days) don’t have dominant periods with clustered flags every decade.

Hawthorn were an elite team and won 4 in 8 years, but prior to their flag in 2008 hadn’t won one in almost 20 years.

Before Richmond’s dynasty they hadn’t won one in three decades.

Melbourne aren’t necessarily going to win any more flags either. They have the list to do it, but things fall apart and other teams may best them and quickly.

If you’re going by the law of averages and equal salary cap allocations theoretically decentralising club performances over time you’d be backing the clubs at the top of tree to pinch flag #17.
 

Havoc

Debutant
Sep 8, 2019
131
797
AFL Club
Richmond
Clubs (these days) don’t have dominant periods with clustered flags every decade.

Hawthorn were an elite team and won 4 in 8 years, but prior to their flag in 2008 hadn’t won one in almost 20 years.

Before Richmond’s dynasty they hadn’t won one in three decades.

Melbourne aren’t necessarily going to win any more flags either. They have the list to do it, but things fall apart and other teams may best them and quickly.

If you’re going by the law of averages and equal salary cap allocations theoretically decentralising club performances over time you’d be backing the clubs at the top of tree to pinch flag #17.
Hawthorn reached 13 flags before Melbourne did.... despite Melbourne reaching 12 flags when Hawthorn only had 1 flag!!
 

catscollector

Premiership Player
Jun 30, 2018
4,134
5,284
AFL Club
Geelong
Have to like what Essendon are doing at the moment. Great young list and more importantly, a lot of hard and in and under players who win contested footy. They have also recruited tall. A similar strategy Geelong used in the early 00's when we brought in big bodies mids.
They should be in with a genuine shot of winning a premiership in the next 4 years.

Carlton should have been playing finals already so they already behind Essendon who tasted finals footy for the first time in many years. Bombers only getting better next season.
 

Havoc

Debutant
Sep 8, 2019
131
797
AFL Club
Richmond
Almost happened in 1987. Carl v Melb GF looked very likely until Stynes ran across the mark.
Geelong vs Melbourne grand final has never happened either... two oldest clubs in the game, hence why it's surprising to me.. that they've never met in a grand final!
 

Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
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Call me biased and delusional but I think we’re a genuine chance with this list of getting to 16 before Carlton or Essendon win one, and certainly before Collingwood win another two. Not a big chance mind you, but I don’t think it’s outrageous. Club should be aiming to get to 16 by 2030 IMO when we begin to see off 34yo Petracca/Brayshaw/Lever, 33yo Fritsch, 32yo Oliver, 30yo Petty/Spargo and 29yo Jackson/Kossie/Rivers. Be about the same age as the Hawthorn stars at the end of 2016.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
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Call me biased and delusional but I think we’re a genuine chance with this list of getting to 16 before Carlton or Essendon win one, and certainly before Collingwood win another two. Not a big chance mind you, but I don’t think it’s outrageous. Club should be aiming to get to 16 by 2030 IMO when we begin to see off 34yo Petracca/Brayshaw/Lever, 33yo Fritsch, 32yo Oliver, 30yo Petty/Spargo and 29yo Jackson/Kossie/Rivers. Be about the same age as the Hawthorn stars at the end of 2016.
You're biased and delusional.
 

Havoc

Debutant
Sep 8, 2019
131
797
AFL Club
Richmond
You're biased and delusional.
Carlton and Essendon have been spinning their wheels for two decades!! Collingwood have recently slumped into what is the beginning of a lean period for them too!

It ain't a stretch.. to suggest Hawthorn, Melbourne and Richmond are more likely to win premierships in the near future!!
 

mcgarnacle

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 2, 2003
9,045
3,281
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Sydney
Carlton and Essendon have been spinning their wheels for two decades!! Collingwood have recently slumped into what is the beginning of a lean period for them too!

It ain't a stretch.. to suggest Hawthorn, Melbourne and Richmond are more likely to win premierships in the near future!!
past performance is not an indicator of future performance
 

Power Play

Club Legend
Oct 8, 2017
1,774
10,697
Brisbane
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Richmond
Carlton are most likely going to get to 17 premierships first, and become the outright leader for overall premierships won.

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of Hawthorn, Melbourne or Richmond overtake Carlton for the most premierships won, along with overtaking Essendon and Collingwood.

Melbourne are primed to win another flag or two with this list. Hawthorn won't be down for much longer, they have won a premiership every decade for the last six consecutive decades, and I can't see why that streak won't continue.

Richmond won't be down for long either, and I won't be surprised if we bounce back into premiership contention next season.

Overall, I'm confident that Hawthorn, Melbourne and Richmond will all win premierships again before either Collingwood or Essendon do.
 

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