First club to 17 premierships?

[BF Tiger]

Hmmmmm.

If Richmond were awesome between 2013 and 2016, then the following holds true:

Collingwood 1897 - 2020: Awesome.

Oh, salted caramel Fadge... Richmond 13-present is considered awesome because we started making finals again, which has since led to three premierships. Collingwood 59-87 was not awesome, regardless of how many grand finals you lost. But 88-90 you can have as awesome. Started making finals, and culminated in a flag. You can’t even extend that out, because you weren’t really in contention after 1990. Sure those two GF losses to Brisbane in early 2000s were nearly awesome, but ultimately not at all. I’ll give awesome again from 2006 to 2013, because there was a flag in there.

So to put it in terms relevant to today, Collingwood being successful is like a seasonal flu, whereas Richmond are like a global pandemic.

This is such a weird hypothetical, for all we know any team could be in a drought still in 20 years time.

I can tell you now if you asked someone this in 2000 they would have thought Carlton or Essendon would be at 20 by now.

Totally agree, and it’s continued to be the expectation (those two and Collingwood). I’d love to see them caught and overtaken by another team. Just for the history making aspect of it.

 

[Fadge]

Oh, salted caramel Fadge... Richmond 13-present is considered awesome because we started making finals again, which has since led to three premierships. Collingwood 59-87 was not awesome, regardless of how many grand finals you lost. But 88-90 you can have as awesome. Started making finals, and culminated in a flag. You can’t even extend that out, because you weren’t really in contention after 1990. Sure those two GF losses to Brisbane in early 2000s were nearly awesome, but ultimately not at all. I’ll give awesome again from 2006 to 2013, because there was a flag in there.

So to put it in terms relevant to today, Collingwood being successful is like a seasonal flu, whereas Richmond are like a global pandemic.

You really do have to be a few sandwiches short of a picnic to be a Richmond supporter.

 

[BF Tiger]

You really do have to be a few sandwiches short of a picnic to be a Richmond supporter.

You are the picnic salted caramel Fadge.

 

[Ash1337]

Pretty clear Carlton are the most likely from here. Their list is set up for a few years to make the jump. Essendon's list needs at least another 5 years to seriously contend. Pies list is closer than Essendon's but wont win 2 with their track record before their list needs to be rejuvenated, and the rest need a string of flags of 4 or more to get there and with current lists, age profiles and time that'll be pretty impossible to do.

 

[Fadge]

Odds:
$3.00 - Collingwood
$3.25 - Carlton
$3.60 - Essendon
$10 - Hawthorn
$25 - Richmond
$50 - Melbourne
$15 - Any other team

 

[sandeano]

Surely it has to be Carlton.

Richmond has possibly one, maybe two at most flags left in this current cycle. Now that the club is cashed up, has a huge membership and is splendidly run it will hopefully take only another decade after that to be competitive again (rather than 30-odd years).

Carlton is the gear clicking right into contention. They appear to have learnt a lot of lessons and their team on and off the field looks settled and potentially very competitive. Yes, it could all fall over very quickly but within three to four years if progress continues upwards then they should nab their 17th.

Essendon, if they get their act together, will be a year or two behind that.

Collingwood is the hard one to read. Plateauing, going up or down? Hard to tell with that lot.

The Hawks seem to have a flurry of flags when they hit form, so I wouldn't count them out fully either.

 

[Rasha]

Odds:
$3.00 - Collingwood
$3.25 - Carlton
$3.60 - Essendon
$10 - Hawthorn
$25 - Richmond
$50 - Melbourne
$15 - Any other team

How is it that we're $25 and Hawthorn are $10 given the respective positions that each club is entering this season, to go with the fact we're equal on 13 flags?

 

[owen87]

How is it that we're $25 and Hawthorn are $10 given the respective positions that each club is entering this season, to go with the fact we're equal on 13 flags?

Because it's unlikely that Richmond win 4 more in the current window, and Hawthorn do have form for bobbing up every decade or so since the 60's and winning a string of them

 

[Fadge]

Because it's unlikely that Richmond win 4 more in the current window, and Hawthorn do have form for bobbing up every decade or so since the 60's and winning a string of them

Exactly.

Hawthorn don't regularly have 3 decades on end of mediocrity in the same way Richmond have not once, but twice in the past 80 years.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Odds:
$3.00 - Collingwood
$3.25 - Carlton
$3.60 - Essendon
$10 - Hawthorn
$25 - Richmond
$50 - Melbourne
$15 - Any other team

Surprised Collingwood are favourites.

I would have had it-
1/ Carlton - Currently equal first on 16 with Essendon. They are effectively finished with their rebuild and should be competing for the premiership within a couple of years.
2/ Essendon - Currently equal first. However appear to be at the start of a rebuild and will be many years for them to be competing for a premiership.
3/ Collingwood - Currently 3rd on 15 premierships. Their list is in a position of where if they make the right moves in the next year or two they could possibly pinch one if the planets align, but look unlikely to string a couple together.
4/ Richmond - Currently equal 4th on 13 premierships. They within the mix of winning another this year or next, but they are towards the end of their era. Would need to win one in the next two years and rebuild a successful list again, while hoping Essendon or Carlton don't win any in the mean time to even have a chance of being first to 17.
5/ Hawthorn - Currently equal 4th with Richmond. Their list doesn't look that great and are in need of a rebuild. Richmond are slightly ahead because they are still within the premiership window at this point and are a chance to snag another one.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

Exactly.

Hawthorn don't regularly have 3 decades on end of mediocrity in the same way Richmond have not once, but twice in the past 80 years.

Premierships since 1960
Hawthorn - 13
Richmond - 8
Carlton - 8
Collingwood - 2

Premierships in AFL era
Hawthorn - 5
Richmond - 3
Collingwood - 2
Carlton - 1

The odds are spot on.

However, first to 20 premierships, Collingwood would be 501 cause they can't win them anymore

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s gotta be Hawthorn. You know it.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Collingwood will have the best opportunity as they make plenty of GF's but they just choke all the time.

Hawthorn have been the most successful team of the last 50 years so would be in the box seat.

Melbourne win flags in batches so if we can just break the drought.......

 

[Kwality]

How is it that we're $25 and Hawthorn are $10 given the respective positions that each club is entering this season, to go with the fact we're equal on 13 flags?

Where can I find a bookie silly enough to give me 15s on Port?
Not one of the corporates Rashy, they do bets they cant win on.

 

[Fadge]

Where can I find a bookie silly enough to give me 15s on Port?
Not one of the corporates Rashy, they do bets they cant win on.

You reckon 15's on Port winning another 16 flags before Carlton or Essendon win 1, or Collingwood win 2, etc. is good odds?

The $15 I suggested was for ANY of the remaining teams to get to 17 before the first of the listed teams. And I reckon I quoted unders.

 

[g_TRAIN]

I would say Carlton honestly.

I know the last 20 years have not been great but they are due for a turnaround.

I think Collingwood is done for a while. They just don't have good enough forwards.

 

[Kwality]

You reckon 15's on Port winning another 16 flags before Carlton or Essendon win 1, or Collingwood win 2, etc. is good odds?

The $15 I suggested was for ANY of the remaining teams to get to 17 before the first of the listed teams. And I reckon I quoted unders.

So its not flags you are talking about. Weasel words Fadge .....

 

[JMarra]

I think we're overlooking St Kilda.

 

[Fadge]

So its not flags you are talking about. Weasel words Fadge .....

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I suspect you're the same...

 

[Kwality]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I suspect you're the same...

I am not surprised.

 

[Xtreme]

The answer begins and ends with Hawthorn.

 

[Fadge]

I am not surprised.

Yep, I find it difficult to stoop to the lowest common denominator of the populace.

 

[HTT]

Think I said Hawthorn in this thread a while back, anyway here’s what I reckon now
1) Carlton - only need one flag and could enter a window in the next couple of years if they don’t * it up
2) Essendon - similar to Carlton but still seem a while off building something sustainable.
3) Collingwood - what is their current list right now capable of? If they get their s**t together they could cobble a flag. But 2 quick ones? Less likely than Carlton’s winning at least 1
4/5) Richmond/Hawthorn - hard to split really, both teams 4 flags away. For Hawthorn to get there they’d need to have a successful rebuild and start another dynasty. Not beyond that club but still very difficult. Richmond could pinch one or two more with this list before needing to reassess which would make our task easier, but we will in all likelihood drop back down a bit before getting a crack at 17. Either of these teams could be decades away.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The answer begins and ends with Hawthorn.

The only logical answer really. It’s just mathematics.

 

[BF Tiger]

Sometime at the end of 1964 a Melbourne Football Club fan sent a telegram saying that a 13th flag in the next season or two was all but assured. The receipient replied that he thought Hawthorn, at that point with one premiership, was more likely.