First club to 17 premierships?

Who will be the first club to 17 premierships?


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In 1964 when Collingwood had 13, Melbourne 12, Essendon 11 and Carlton 8 you would've laughed at those who said Carlton would be first to 14 too I bet.

The game tends to go in cycles, there's no reason why someones opinion that Richmond or Hawthorn will win 4 more before Carlton, Essendon or Collingwood get another 1 (or 2) is invalid.
I never said invalid.

Just highly, highly unlikely.

Might run some numbers if I get some time on the weekend...
 

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I never said invalid.

Just highly, highly unlikely.

Might run some numbers if I get some time on the weekend...

You called them "deluded Richmond suppprters"

Numbers don't mean anything if your just going to go by 1/18th per year chance. On that logic Freo should have a flag by now and Saints should have at least 6 or 7.
 
You called them "deluded Richmond suppprters"

Numbers don't mean anything if your just going to go by 1/18th per year chance. On that logic Freo should have a flag by now and Saints should have at least 6 or 7.
OK.

I'll have Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood - one of them will be the first to get to 17, and you can have every other team in the competition.

Hypothetical situation - would you take an even money bet?
 
I got great enjoyment from Richmond winning the flag in 2017, so much so that I wore a Richmond guernsey in a pool bar whilst holidaying with great friends of mine who are all Richmond supporters - one of the most enjoyable Grand Finals I have seen.

But I like to play the numbers, and I would bet anyone I know as much as they want that:
A) Carlton or Essendon will get there first, or
B) if it's neither of them, it will be Collingwood ahead of anyone else.

My point was there are some deluded Richmond supporters that honestly believe they are more likely to win four more flags before any of the above scenarios eventuate. On a simple numbers game, the odds of that happening would be in the realm of 100 to 1.
You know what was also more likely 6 years ago? Collingwood hitting 17 before Richmond hit 13.

Oh is that the simple numbers? Mind telling me how you came to those 100 to 1 odds?
 
Yep. Once the Pies get to 35 years without contending for a flag, I'll acknowledge we've sunk to Richmond's depths.

We are currently in Year 2.

Richmond's depths? They've just won 3 of the last 4 flags and you wanna talk about depths?!

It's not about contending them, it's about winning them.

For the thread title it's unlikely to be us.
 

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Richmond's depths? They've just won 3 of the last 4 flags and you wanna talk about depths?!

It's not about contending them, it's about winning them.

For the thread title it's unlikely to be us.
Yep. I'm sure it was all part of their strategy.

'Let's be absolute crap for 35 years, and then sneak up on everyone to win 3 flags in 4 years'...
 
Yep. I'm sure it was all part of their strategy.

'Let's be absolute crap for 35 years, and then sneak up on everyone to win 3 flags in 4 years'...

Like our strategy of handing the keys of a should've been dynasty team to an untried coach?

Of course it wasn't their strategy, but you're not in a position to criticize from a club point of view. We're literally down the bottom of the performance ladder for the last 6 decades. The mob over the road is not, they're at the top for the last 4 years.

I'd stop right there if I were you, you look hypocritical given our clubs back yard.
 
Yep. I'm sure it was all part of their strategy.

'Let's be absolute crap for 35 years, and then sneak up on everyone to win 3 flags in 4 years'...

Was that Melbourne's strategy?
Sneak up on everyone after 57 years of mediocrity?
 
It's not unlikely.

It's about an 80% probability.

Melbourne?

Adelaide

I come back from the future and we get 17th flag in 2078.


The threepeat of 2077-76-78 got us past Essendon, Carlton and Gold Coast all stuck on 16.





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How many flags have the Power won?
 
In 1964 when Collingwood had 13, Melbourne 12, Essendon 11 and Carlton 8 you would've laughed at those who said Carlton would be first to 14 too I bet.

The game tends to go in cycles, there's no reason why someones opinion that Richmond or Hawthorn will win 4 more before Carlton, Essendon or Collingwood get another 1 (or 2) is invalid.

imagine in the 30s if youd said the ‘sociable mayblooms’ would have more success than anyone going forward. Fair dinkum certifiable
 
Melbourne a chance.
Not seen a midfield set up this good in a long long time.
You got the perfect ruck division of Gawn and Jackson. Then you got the engine room of Petracca, Oliver and Viney that very hard to stop as they combine beautifully and attack straight away from the centre break. Even the Lions in early 2000's did not have a ruck division this good.
If they can keep them all on park for next five to six years, anything is possible. It really interesting that Beveridge is someone that does not rate the ruck that important. I think he got a lesson in never underestimate what a dominant ruckmen giving you the perfect set up from engine room.
It is also good for football to see a midfield like that.
 
It's not unlikely.

It's about an 80% probability.

Yes, but the way people carry on here you’d think neither club will win a final again, let alone flag.

Obviously much of that is wishful thinking.

But yes all it takes is either club to get its act together and have some luck for one year to get to 17, opposed to twice for pies or 4 more times for hawks, tigers or Dees.
 
Melbourne a chance.
Not seen a midfield set up this good in a long long time.
You got the perfect ruck division of Gawn and Jackson. Then you got the engine room of Petracca, Oliver and Viney that very hard to stop as they combine beautifully and attack straight away from the centre break. Even the Lions in early 2000's did not have a ruck division this good.
If they can keep them all on park for next five to six years, anything is possible. It really interesting that Beveridge is someone that does not rate the ruck that important. I think he got a lesson in never underestimate what a dominant ruckmen giving you the perfect set up from engine room.
It is also good for football to see a midfield like that.

They looked amazing last night, but 4 more flags (5 in total) with this group would be something never done in the salary cap/draft era (hawks crossed over between the 2).

Mind you everyone else could get stuck and melb get 17 before everyone else in 2046.
 
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