First club to 20 Flags

[deanc]

61

Of course 61, jeez I've having a shocker...

BTW speaking of flag/finals droughts, most will know the last time Essendon 'won a final' was 2004, but apparently the last time they won a 'non-Sheedy coached' final was 1966...!!!

 

[Blues177]

Who knows who will get to flag 20 first but I'll give it a go.

Hopefully Carlton. As for the other clubs listed, in order:

Collingwood
Richmond
Essendon
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Geelong (too far behind)

When: Not before 2050

 

[Thebont657]

Richmond

 

[Tiger71]

Both those things are true though...

Richmond did have a 37 year premiership drought and won their first AFL era premiership in 2017.

1980 VFL Premiers - 2017 AFL Premiers = 37 years

yes we had a 37 year drought due to being in the comp over a 100 years. It's not our fault our club has a history shorter then red rooster like the eagles, so i still dont see your point ?

 

[FreeTK]

yes we had a 37 year drought due to being in the comp over a 100 years. It's not our fault our club has a history shorter then red rooster like the eagles, so i still dont see your point ?

Other newer clubs also have droughts. That's not the reason why.

You had a drought because your club was a basket case and was a laughing stock for 30+ years.

 

[Tiger71]

Other newer clubs also have droughts. That's not the reason why.

You had a drought because your club was a basket case and was a laughing stock for 30+ years.

Yet what on earth does that have to do with the tigers now ?

 

[DEVO]

North Melbourne. Sometime in 2050's.

 

[Filthy Sanchez]

Well Carlton and Essendon are a dynasty away from achieving it so they're the most realistic choices followed by Collingwood.

With FA and greater discrepency between the rich and poorer clubs I'd say we may see a resurgence of the big powerful clubs winning a lot more than those that struggle to entice talent. Sydney, West Coast and GWS will be the big disruptors to a team achieving 20 premierships in the near future.

You'd also need to allow for some expansion teams as the AFL continues to vide for world domination. These further concession riddled drafts will allow the rich clubs to consolidate their unrelenting grip on the top of the table.

I'll say Carlton, as they're capable of snagging a couple in the next eight years, and from there can probably maintain some dominance through expansion years to get to 20.

In trying to ascertain how frequently a team can win a premiership I think you need to take out the teams that probably won't win one in the next twenty years, (Gold Coast, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, yet to be invented expansion teams, Melbourne?)

That leaves us with thirteen teams to win premierships in twenty years. I'd say Carlton could claim four more say around 2050.

I don't see four to Essendon, five to Collingwood or seven or eight to anyone else topping that.

 

[Coach_Required]

It will be Carlton or Essendon, won't be us we are still 8 flags away LOL (that's about 50 years on average if you're lucky)

 

[Fadge]

Well Carlton and Essendon are a dynasty away from achieving it so they're the most realistic choices followed by Collingwood.

With FA and greater discrepency between the rich and poorer clubs I'd say we may see a resurgence of the big powerful clubs winning a lot more than those that struggle to entice talent. Sydney, West Coast and GWS will be the big disruptors to a team achieving 20 premierships in the near future.

You'd also need to allow for some expansion teams as the AFL continues to vide for world domination. These further concession riddled drafts will allow the rich clubs to consolidate their unrelenting grip on the top of the table.

I'll say Carlton, as they're capable of snagging a couple in the next eight years, and from there can probably maintain some dominance through expansion years to get to 20.

In trying to ascertain how frequently a team can win a premiership I think you need to take out the teams that probably won't win one in the next twenty years, (Gold Coast, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, yet to be invented expansion teams, Melbourne?)

That leaves us with thirteen teams to win premierships in twenty years. I'd say Carlton could claim four more say around 2050.

I don't see four to Essendon, five to Collingwood or seven or eight to anyone else topping that.

You were going well with this post until you nominated Carlton.

 

[Tiger Soze]

It will be Carlton or Essendon, won't be us we are still 8 flags away LOL (that's about 50 years on average if you're lucky)

Statistically Hawthorn would have to be the choice here, they have won 7 flags in a 30 year period and 6 in under 30 years prior to that.

 

[A Banderas]

You were going well with this post until you nominated Carlton.

More chance than pies . Pies will lose another 5 before they win another 5

 

[Marcel Proust]

Port did it eons back.

in a farmers league

 

[Ceehook]

we've seen since the 2000's clubs hang around the top 4 and win multiple flags ie ( Geelong, Hawks & Brisbane )

reaching a total of 20 cups will need a club to get on a roll like those clubs did and more , but records are made to be broken

we are well placed for the moment
strong playing list
destination club (think Lynch)
strong administration
good facilities
strong club culture
but as we know that can just fall short (2018) or all fall apart (post 1982)
for us to reach 20 we need a productive 10 -15 years

Essendon , due to cups in the bank , must figure and they look like they are still rebuilding from the drugs saga in the right way (adding Carracella & Lade to coaching panel) building list steadily (I was impressed by their VFL side late in 2019)

Collingwood are lurking , not totally convinced by their depth , with a little luck on the trading and drafting front they could take that next step to powerhouse but need quite a few stars to align to have a run of premierships, to my eye they are very reliant on Pendlebury & Sidebottom , De Goey with an injury free run could carry them to a premiership but is his body upto multiple cups over 5 + years ? , the football world hopes not

Carlton have had too many round 1 picks to count in the last decade and have finally shown real promise post coach sacking
they have a good base but do think their list depth is too skinny for a flag in 2020 , beyond that they could be a chance if the football gods smile down on them (God I hope not)

Hawks , while Clarkson's there you wouldn't want to write them off

I'd see Brisbane and the West Coast as the big spoilers

Go Tiges

 

[mcgarnacle]

Despite not winning premierships since 1995 & 2000 respectively, and looking fairly average over the past couple of decades, Carlton & Essendon are still in the box seat to be first to 20 purely based on being closest there. Collingwood are generally a better performing club and only 1 premiership behind the leaders, but their record is to lose 2 GFs for every 1 premiership they win. If that stat holds, they'll need to make another 13-14 GFs before they win another 5. In contrast, Hawthorn and Melbourne have great GF records - the Dees issue over the past 50 years is making one. Hawthorn are the most successful club of the past 50-60 years.

End of the day though, historic stats mean FA.

 

[FreeTK]

in a farmers league

So pretty much the equivalent to VFL before the Eagles and bears joined?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Tiger Soze]

So pretty much the equivalent to VFL before the Eagles and bears joined?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

If that were the case SANFL or WAFL would have become the AFL wouldn’t it? Can’t recall any interstate teams wanting to join those competitions. In fact if my memory is correct the decent players from those competitions used to come over here to play in the best competition in the land!! VFL games were replayed on The Winners into those states as well.

 

[FreeTK]

If that were the case SANFL or WAFL would have become the AFL wouldn’t it? Can’t recall any interstate teams wanting to join those competitions. In fact if my memory is correct the decent players from those competitions used to come over here to play in the best competition in the land!! VFL games were replayed on The Winners into those states as well.

Lol all three state leagues were amateurish compared to today’s national competition. VFL was the strongest of the 3.
WAFL economic model was based on player transfer fees and audience for VFL was extremely small compared to today’s national market which is why the VFL was about to go under.

Only reason a wa team joined (west coast) joined was to prevent knock on affects that would result in WAFL collapsing after VFL collapsing.

People comparing state level VFL flags to national competition AFL flags have rocks in their head.

They are apples and oranges.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Senor M]

People comparing state level VFL flags to national competition AFL flags have rocks in their head.

They are apples and oranges.

Another day-- another thread FreeTK derails with his views that only premierships from 1990 onwards count

 

[Franc de Borges]

Most likely to be in the same order that teams reached 14, 15 and 16.

 

[Tiger Soze]

Another day-- another thread FreeTK derails with his views that only premierships from 1990 onwards count

It’s interesting that some interstate team supporters look at it from this perspective, but in reality teams didn’t leave the VFL to form a new competition. Interstate teams first joined the VFL competition in 1987, that competition then had a name change only in 1990. The history of the AFL is clearly the VFL, hence the term “interstate clubs” which is still used today.
Now if you were going to reset and draw a new line it would actually have to be 2012 when GWS was the last team to join the competition. Which would have the premiership leaders being Hawks (3) Tigers (2).
But the history books will always show it from 1897, as it should be.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Hawks are on what 5, Eagles are on 4?

Going to be a while before we have to worry about someone winning 20 flags

 

[Kwality]

in a farmers league

The AFL is the ONLY game in town v any of the State Leagues & you've won 2, the Hawks 5, Port 1 - put down the glasses the Hawks by a couple of lengths ....

 

[Tiger Soze]

The AFL is the ONLY game in town v any of the State Leagues & you've won 2, the Hawks 5, Port 1 - put down the glasses the Hawks by a couple of lengths ....

AFL Premiership Winners - AFL.com.au

In complete chronological order, view the full list of Toyota AFL premiership winners from 1897 to present.

m.afl.com.au

 

[FRUMPY]

Fremantle - by 2040