Preview First Pick Discussion

[LuKe2428]

There's a Clayton McCartney later in the draft.

I really think we should grab him with a 3rd or 4th rounder. Little goal sneak we need (dale thomas) like. Always in the best for the Stingrays, Even in the champs he kicked a few goals. Think he will last to our 4th round pick tigs2010 ?

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[pebblestone]

I know what you meant. It's just my favourite face

SO Forrest Whittaker.

 

[Cevap_Roll]

Is it too much to ask for a future Normsmith/Brownlow medalist?

 

[RichoLedio]

Is it too much to ask for a future Normsmith/Bronlow medalist?

We already have Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Vlastuin and Ellis who will all win Brownlows and Norm Smiths, plus McBean who both medals will be renamed for, how many do we need?

 

[Cevap_Roll]

We already have Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Vlastuin and Ellis who will all win Brownlows and Norm Smiths, plus McBean who both medals will be renamed for, how many do we need?

Not much.
Just dominate the AFL for the next ten years.
30 years of pain for 10 years of domination it's only fair

 

[nobulltiger]

SO Forrest Whittaker.

 

[3rdManUp]

Not much.
Just dominate the AFL for the next ten years.
30 years of pain for 10 years of domination it's only fair

Well last time it was 20 years of pain for 10 years of domination so I would be pushing for at least 15

 

[_kp_]

Hey, don't post often but I like to be around during draft time.

FWIW here's my top 15 (power rankings not predictions). Not much talent left after this.

1. Boyd
2. Sheed
3. Kelly
4. Billings
5. Scharenberg
6. Acres
7. Bontempelli
8. McDonald
9. Kolodjashnij
10. Dumont
11. Aish
12. Salem
13. Dunstan
14. Templeton
15. Giles

 

[SteveRFC]

Anyone reckon we could nab Dom Sheed?

 

[Stylo]

Hey, don't post often but I like to be around during draft time.

FWIW here's my top 15 (power rankings not predictions). Not much talent left after this.

1. Boyd
2. Sheed
3. Bontempelli
4. Kolodjashnij
5. Billings
6. McDonald
7. Scharenberg
8. Lennon
9. Kelly
10. Dumont
11. Salem
12. Freeman
13. Aish
14. Dunstan
15. McCarthy

Aish at 13 is interesting. Don't rate Taylor?

 

[Calcium Man]

I've hoped on the Acres bandwagon.

But would be happy with most, but i wouldn't want Aish, Billings, Hartung or KK as i think they are way to outside and i have a theory on outside players not translating as well to AFL level.

 

[_kp_]

Aish at 13 is interesting. Don't rate Taylor?

Not sure what the fuss is with Taylor. He's tiny and terrible under physical pressure. He just panics. Athletically very impressive. I don't see any star qualities though.

 

[_kp_]

I've hoped on the Acres bandwagon.

But would be happy with most, but i wouldn't want Aish, Billings, Hartung or KK as i think they are way to outside and i have a theory on outside players not translating as well to AFL level.

There is nothing wrong with outside players.

They just need more than one trick.

 

[tigs2010]

I've hoped on the Acres bandwagon.

But would be happy with most, but i wouldn't want Aish, Billings, Hartung or KK as i think they are way to outside and i have a theory on outside players not translating as well to AFL level.

Not that it will happen but I'd take Aish. I reckon he has inside ability but with his bung shoulder played more outside. Get on board my Acres bandwagon. Kids a gun. Though I'd be doing a very, very thorough medical on those shoulders.

 

[KingJ]

Anyone reckon we could nab Dom Sheed?

Yes!

 

[Bird Man]

Lennon is perfect for our Cf needs

 

[tigs2010]

Lennon is perfect for our Cf needs

What's a Cf?

 

[Calcium Man]

There is nothing wrong with outside players.

They just need more than one trick.

They need an inside game. There is a fair correlation between high picked outside players and failing to really live up to the hype at AFL level.

2004 - Tambling, Egan and Russell
2005 - Thomas, Ellis, JON, Higgins, Hurn and Birchall
2006 - Gibbs, Everitt, O'Keefe, Jetta and Grigg
2007 - Morton, Myers, Palmer, Veszpremi, rioli
2008 - Hill, Yarran and Blease
2009 - Scully, Shepperd, Lucas and Jetta
2010 - Bennell, Gaff, Polec, Heppell and Issac smith


2004 - all failures

2005 - Thomas and Birchall are the real exceptions in the whole list. Daisy has a very good inside game too and Birchall is really the only superstar that plays as outside as he does.

2006 -Gibbs is very good but never be elite that people expected after he dominated SANFL and Grigg is solid. The rest are very poor or delisted

2007 - Rioli is it and he is probably is not an outside type but a clever FP who is exceptional inside as well.

2008 - Hill is another very good player but its his inside game is actually quite good. Yarran is all over the shop and blease is no good.

2009 - Jetta is good but one good year doesn't yet make him a superstar. The rest are junk

2010 - Bennell looks like he will be the exception to the rule. Gaff and Polec will never be stars and Gaff is already getting found out. Heppell has an exceptional inside game too which gets overlooked and probably came in with the illusion he was an outside player when he isn't and Issac smith is another Grigg.

Overall Thomas and Birchall would be the only elite players with Hill and Bennell the best chances to join them.

Purely outside players struggle to make the adaption in my mind and i think its cos a junior or SANFL level you have so much more time on the outside, you lose that time at AFL level. Inside guys are used to having less time and adapt better. Aish may have shoulder problems but I just don't see his inside game as it wasn't really there last years champs either (was he injured in 2012) and he gets such a low percentage of his possessions in contested situations. KK is completely outside and so is Hartung. Billings probably has a better chance but i just don't see him becoming a top line mid maybe more an Alan Didak with better marking.

 

[Calcium Man]

Not that it will happen but I'd take Aish. I reckon he has inside ability but with his bung shoulder played more outside. Get on board my Acres bandwagon. Kids a gun. Though I'd be doing a very, very thorough medical on those shoulders.

Was he injured last year?? Seems he played the same role at champs last year too. The one positive is that he is already being tagged at SANFL level and he handles it well which is a big weakness for most AFL players. But personally see him being Bryce Gibbs mark II. Its not a bad thing but he won't be a top 20 player more like a top 50

 

[tigs2010]

Was he injured last year?? Seems he played the same role at champs last year too. The one positive is that he is already being tagged at SANFL level and he handles it well which is a big weakness for most AFL players. But personally see him being Bryce Gibbs mark II. Its not a bad thing but he won't be a top 20 player more like a top 50

I have no idea about last year. Probably using his outside skills. Kid can win his own ball if he has to was more my point. The list you made before raises an interesting point about outside players and the teams they play for. Look at the successes you have there. Daisy, Birchall, Rioli, Hill, Jetta all have one thing in common. The year they were drafted they all played in a finals team (except maybe Birchall who probably took the longest to kick in) The outside guys who end up at the shit clubs without good players to get it to them get found out and often get tagged. I'd be worried if Melbourne take Kelly at pick 2 which it seems they will after Toumpas last year.

 

[Calcium Man]

I have no idea about last year. Probably using his outside skills. Kid can win his own ball if he has to was more my point. The list you made before raises an interesting point about outside players and the teams they play for. Look at the successes you have there. Daisy, Birchall, Rioli, Hill, Jetta all have one thing in common. The year they were drafted they all played in a finals team (except maybe Birchall who probably took the longest to kick in) The outside guys who end up at the shit clubs without good players to get it to them get found out and often get tagged. I'd be worried if Melbourne take Kelly at pick 2 which it seems they will after Toumpas last year.

Birchall and Hill both played at clubs that were poor in their first season (Freo third last in 2009 and Hawks 10th in 2006). I think you may have been suggesting stronger clubs like Hawks, Collingwood and Sydney but hawks have had ellis as a failure (maybe injury helped), Varco at Geelong and Gaff and Shepperd at WC are what i would consider other strong clubs with failures.

The thing that sets those guys apart (except Birchall) is extreme speed/agility. Which Bennell also has. I also think the other important thing is the ability to win your own ball which they all have except maybe Jetta.

I'm not saying Aish dosen't have that ability as i've only seen the 4 champs games of him (and Toumpas was so much more impressive) so i can't be conclusive but he did play very outside in those games. Somebody had a stat in one of these threads that he had a 24% contested possession rate which is so much lower then even Kelly who had 36%. I think he has it in him to be Bryce Gibbs which is not a bad thing, thats 250 games of high level football but its not top 10 or 20 in the league its more like top 50 but you still need those players.

But KK and Hartung for mine are so very outside they are being highly over rated and i wouldn't pick them in the top 20. I'm a very big believer in picking another Vlastuin, Ellis (who is actually quite outside but sounds like they will work on his inside game) or Conca not a flashy player who looks better and more composed because he plays on the outside.

Acres is my first choice but i'll understand if we skip him. He has height, he ran 2.94 20 meter sprint at the start of the year (3.05 at draft camp on minimal training), and he is a nice kick and can play an outside/inside role.

Sheed is probably my second choice as he is a leader, racks up possessions, knows what he can do with the ball and doesn't try beyond that and can kick goals and go forward. Strikes me as a Joel Corey, Jordan Lewis, Reece Conca type 250 game very solid citizen.

Salem is my third choice, think he is a mix of the two above but not quite as good. Would love to know his 20 metre sprint time.

Freeman and Bontempelli would be my next choices. They are a little bit more of risk and you're not sure just how high a level player you'll get but don't have the runs on the board and will take time to develop.

Dunstan, Dumont and Lennon would be the other three i'd be satisfied with. Dumont is a bit of a reach but just strikes me as a conca. I've gone off dunstan a bit but he was a certain top 5 coming into the year, his SANFL form was great and he is a leader, i actually can't put my finger on why i have him below the others as he almost strikes Vlastuin mark II. Lennon i havent seen enough of but reading everything he seems to tick every box except moving full time into the mids a bit like Billings, but i think he has more upside then Jack.

I suspect at least 3-4 of these guys to be available so i'd be disappointed if we got anyone outside this group unless its Cam McCarthy as a KPP (but i see no point). If i could pick 1 knowing he reach his potential though it would be Bontempelli. Would love to know his 20 meter sprint, wish the AFL would not just do a top 10 and show us all the results its crap.

 

[KingJ]

Birchall and Hill both played at clubs that were poor in their first season (Freo third last in 2009 and Hawks 10th in 2006). I think you may have been suggesting stronger clubs like Hawks, Collingwood and Sydney but hawks have had ellis as a failure (maybe injury helped), Varco at Geelong and Gaff and Shepperd at WC are what i would consider other strong clubs with failures.

The thing that sets those guys apart (except Birchall) is extreme speed/agility. Which Bennell also has. I also think the other important thing is the ability to win your own ball which they all have except maybe Jetta.

I'm not saying Aish dosen't have that ability as i've only seen the 4 champs games of him (and Toumpas was so much more impressive) so i can't be conclusive but he did play very outside in those games. Somebody had a stat in one of these threads that he had a 24% contested possession rate which is so much lower then even Kelly who had 36%. I think he has it in him to be Bryce Gibbs which is not a bad thing, thats 250 games of high level football but its not top 10 or 20 in the league its more like top 50 but you still need those players.

But KK and Hartung for mine are so very outside they are being highly over rated and i wouldn't pick them in the top 20. I'm a very big believer in picking another Vlastuin, Ellis (who is actually quite outside but sounds like they will work on his inside game) or Conca not a flashy player who looks better and more composed because he plays on the outside.

Acres is my first choice but i'll understand if we skip him. He has height, he ran 2.94 20 meter sprint at the start of the year (3.05 at draft camp on minimal training), and he is a nice kick and can play an outside/inside role.

Sheed is probably my second choice as he is a leader, racks up possessions, knows what he can do with the ball and doesn't try beyond that and can kick goals and go forward. Strikes me as a Joel Corey, Jordan Lewis, Reece Conca type 250 game very solid citizen.

Salem is my third choice, think he is a mix of the two above but not quite as good. Would love to know his 20 metre sprint time.

Freeman and Bontempelli would be my next choices. They are a little bit more of risk and you're not sure just how high a level player you'll get but don't have the runs on the board and will take time to develop.

Dunstan, Dumont and Lennon would be the other three i'd be satisfied with. Dumont is a bit of a reach but just strikes me as a conca. I've gone off dunstan a bit but he was a certain top 5 coming into the year, his SANFL form was great and he is a leader, i actually can't put my finger on why i have him below the others as he almost strikes Vlastuin mark II. Lennon i havent seen enough of but reading everything he seems to tick every box except moving full time into the mids a bit like Billings, but i think he has more upside then Jack.

I suspect at least 3-4 of these guys to be available so i'd be disappointed if we got anyone outside this group unless its Cam McCarthy as a KPP (but i see no point). If i could pick 1 knowing he reach his potential though it would be Bontempelli. Would love to know his 20 meter sprint, wish the AFL would not just do a top 10 and show us all the results its crap.

Quality post Calcium Man
I think you may be underselling Aish a little when you compare him to Gibbs, feel as though Aish will become a better player than Gibbs at AFL level through his sheer class and ability, could potentially become a top 20 AFL player at the right team/development.
One of Bontempelli/Acres/Freeman would excite me, Salem would make me content, the ceiling for the first three mentioned is endless and as you said if Bontempelli reaches his potential he could be anything!

 

[Cevap_Roll]

What's a Cf?

Shane Edwards.

 

[Nostradumbass]

I watched the champs and Sheed is the one I remembered as a stand out for me. The kid was all class. Broke his arm iirc.

 

[Richo83]

Hey, don't post often but I like to be around during draft time.

FWIW here's my top 15 (power rankings not predictions). Not much talent left after this.

1. Boyd
2. Sheed
3. Bontempelli
4. Kolodjashnij
5. Billings
6. McDonald
7. Scharenberg
8. Lennon
9. Kelly
10. Dumont
11. Salem
12. Freeman
13. Aish
14. Dunstan
15. McCarthy

Thoughts on Crouch?