Fitzgibbon: ALP could split in the next 20 years

[Johnny Bananas]

FFS just because you agree with the science of climate change doesnt mean you are in favour of shutting down every coal mine and power plant tomorrow.

this is legitimately the absolutism that drives me nuts "you either believe in my response to climate change, or you dont think climate change is real!!!"

and going back to my original point, when that is where you start a negotiation, no sh*t no compromise is possible.

If you're going to criticise others for absolutism, at least have the honesty to accurately represent their views instead of parroting the straw man arguments of the coal lobby. Not even the Greens want to shut down coal mines and power plants tomorrow, what they want is to not open any new coal mines or power plants, and retire the existing ones when they come to the end of their useful life. How do you expect anyone to compromise if you're going to caricature their nuanced position?

yes you are, when there is a refusal to consider non renewal options to replace the hunter and latrobe valley

What solution do you want, exactly? New coal? New gas turbines? Neither of those are going to help stave off sea level rises and more intense droughts.

Rubbish, Bob Brown and his convoy was the single biggest reason that secured the election for Morrison.

Are you being serious?

 

[Kwality]

Yep agree, except Lydia is in the Senate now

a minor detail ... the Greens have selected an indigenous activist to oppose Ged Kearney:

Indigenous activist Celeste Liddle will attempt to unseat Labor MP Ged Kearney at the next federal election as the Greens candidate for the inner-Melbourne seat of Cooper.
Ms Liddle, an Arrernte woman who is a union organiser and a social commentator, will become a key figure in the Greens’ strategy to help Labor form a minority government and demand greater action on climate change and inequality.

Indigenous activist to run for Greens in Ged Kearney’s inner-Melbourne seat

If successful, Celeste Liddle would be the first Indigenous Australian woman to be elected to the federal House of Representatives from Victoria.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Kwality]

He said a better understanding of which islands are growing and which are eroding could help Pacific nations adapt to climate change.

Couldnt put it better myself .... the simplistic suggestion that if you question the rhetoric, you are a denialist holds back the cause.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

How have they dealt with the dispatchable issue?

i dont believe so, they are still dealing with energy shortages, so that's occupying much of their focus I suspect (not my field, so guesswork just on media reporting)

 

[Ned_Flanders]

If you're going to criticise others for absolutism, at least have the honesty to accurately represent their views instead of parroting the straw man arguments of the coal lobby. Not even the Greens want to shut down coal mines and power plants tomorrow, what they want is to not open any new coal mines or power plants, and retire the existing ones when they come to the end of their useful life. How do you expect anyone to compromise if you're going to caricature their nuanced position?





What solution do you want, exactly? New coal? New gas turbines? Neither of those are going to help stave off sea level rises and more intense droughts.





Are you being serious?

We need to replace a lot of our coal with something now. Not in 10 years. Personally I'd go gas, but that's me.

Reality is we don't have enough batteries to cover 10 million plus homes

 

[Suspense]

They aren't an environmental party now, but they used to be eg Franklin river, Rudd's progressive climate policy, anti-nuclear policies ect.
Workers overwhelmingly want stronger climate policy, it's something like 75 to 80% .
Labor is making the mistake of targeting swinging voters who are only 2 or 3% of voters.
Modern politics is about getting your base out to vote and inspiring your base.
There's nothing inspiring about Labor , it's all about internal pollsters making the decisions now. This so called pragmatic approach is not helping to inspire voters.

In countries without mandatory voting.
On 2PP, Greens preferences traditionally flow to ALP anyway.
Winning over Greens voters is essentially a nil net gain.
Winning over moderates/swinging voters from LNP is a 2 net gain (-1 LNP +1 ALP).

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Yes, the core Labor vote is union members and rusted on elderly voters now.
The young people are getting out unless they have family or union ties.
It should be a good election for the Greens coming up. A few more lower house seats like Lydia Thorpe in Darebin and the balance of power in lower house would be good.

They are growing from a small base though. As discussed with you recently, I can't recall a green candidate at my booths ever having more than 2 volunteers on board for the entire day (alp in my area have 4-6 at a time across three shifts)

This isn't a bag btw, engagement is tough for all parties, and it varies by geography too.

For example, I did 5 letterboxing arrangements for three candidates in the council elections. All because not enough hands were going up and they were frankly desperate.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

In countries without mandatory voting.
On 2PP, Greens preferences traditionally flow to ALP anyway.
Winning over Greens voters is essentially a nil net gain.
Winning over moderates/swinging voters from LNP is a 2 net gain (-1 LNP +1 ALP).

What about Greens holding the balance of power?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Is it one industry though?

https://me.cfmeu.org.au/sites/me.cfmeu.org.au/files/uploads/Campaign%20Materials/COVID_MINSTANDARDS_SAFETY.pdf

Mining is that industry & without mining we'll be back to lattes & scones .... even the smart country where people cant read.

I agree with measuring subsidies, bang for the buck ....

its one subsector of mining which is coal mining/ coal power generation. Trying to conflate it into other mining seems overreach.
As I mentioned we let other industries die, what is the difference here.

 

[Kwality]

its one subsector of mining which is coal mining/ coal power generation. Trying to conflate it into other mining seems overreach.
As I mentioned we let other industries die, what is the difference here.

Good point.
Living in the Latrobe Valley I know coals best days are behind it.
Dying on the vine is not what Fitzgibbons critics here seem to want. Paying lip service to jobs in Australia when there is plenty of other sources of coal internationally begs the question why?
Australia can not & will not, save the world from climate change, but we can destroy our own economy from within.

 

[Suspense]

What about Greens holding the balance of power?

They only have one seat in the lower house.

If the Greens vote is as substantial as is being purported and they manage to hold the balance of power in the upper house, I expect that they would fulfil their role in holding the executive to account - particularly on environmental matters.

 

[Kwality]

What about Greens holding the balance of power?

It'd be the equivalent of the Christian lobby on the other side.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Good point.
Living in the Latrobe Valley I know coals best days are behind it.
Dying on the vine is not what Fitzgibbons critics here seem to want. Paying lip service to jobs in Australia when there is plenty of other sources of coal internationally begs the question why?
Australia can not & will not, save the world from climate change, but we can destroy our own economy from within.

As I posed I would like subsides to only be provided if there was net benefit from providing subsidy. These need to be independently costed (as opposed to either BS partisan group doing it)_

The lack of carbon pricing makes it difficult to conduct fair costs and benefits. Thanks Abbott.

 

[Kwality]

As I posed I would like subsides to only be provided if there was net benefit from providing subsidy. These need to be independently costed (as opposed to either BS partisan group doing it)_

The lack of carbon pricing makes it difficult to conduct fair costs and benefits. Thanks Abbott.

Its a different issue to subsidies as I see it. Scrapping jobs here, for jobs overseas doesnt reduce emissions & deliberately destroys working families.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Its a different issue to subsidies as I see it. Scrapping jobs here, for jobs overseas doesnt reduce emissions & deliberately destroys working families.

I don't know. From what the green side claim, these coal jobs mainly exist via generous subsidies.
There should be no expectation of government support for most jobs.
You seem to be recycling the same failed arguments raised by car industry as to why a job should exist in australia.

 

[Heisenberg_]

Are you being serious?

Admittedly I exaggerated that point and probably shouldn’t have said anything because it’s been done to death and in the past.
However it was so counterproductive and only allowed Palmer and Morrison to back up the ridiculous claim that “Bill Shorten and the Greens are going to take your jobs” as well as the embarrassment that was the fear campaign with bloody electric vehicles.
They should have been using facts to show that not only is Adani a waste of money it’s not going to create * all long term employment after it’s built but renewable energy will give the people in the regions much more employment opportunities and sustainable.
Instead they let the RW media have a field day about the “out of touch elites”

 

[Kwality]

I don't know. From what the green side claim, these coal jobs mainly exist via generous subsidies.
There should be no expectation of government support for most jobs.
You seem to be recycling the same failed arguments raised by car industry as to why a job should exist in australia.

The subsidies for the car industry were very clear, transparent.
Not so coal.

Home - Mining and Energy Union

me.cfmeu.org.au

'Australian coking coal had revenues up from US$1.1b to US$1.3b, and EBITDA profit up from US$541m to US$673m. (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation – a key measure of cash income after deducting operating costs.)

The much larger Australian thermal coal business had revenues up from US$4.9b to US$6.3b, and EBITDA profit up from US$2b to US$3.2b (up 60%).

Glencore claims a high cash margin of 46% on its coal business. An overall cash margin of US$40 per tonne. That’s a high rate of profit from any perspective.

BHP, which used to be the biggest Australian coal producer, had attributable production of 60 million tonnes in 2018. (It manages a lot more production than that, but the 60mt is its share of the various joint ventures.) As BHP is a diversified resources company, its total profits don’t tell us enough about the Australian coal business. But as with Glencore we can look at just the coal results.

BHP’s financial year is to the end of June, so its recent results are for the half year to end December. Queensland Coal revenue increased from US$3.35b to US$3.77b and EBITDA profit from US$1.5b to US$1.8b. NSW Energy Coal had increased revenue – US$799m, up from US$750m – but lower EBITDA profit – declining from US$304m to US$229m. That’s still a lot of profit from one mine - Mt Arthur Coal - in the Hunter valley!'

 

[Kwality]

It was a Labor policy.
The Feds sat on the fence which was tacit approval.
Shorten and Albanese had every opportunity to say they will do all they can to stop it but they didn't.
If you can stop Tasmania making the Franklin River a dam you can stop a coal mine.
They had plenty of reasons to stop it 1/ It's uneconomic and a waste of money. 2/ Profits are going to India 3/ It's almost fully automated. 3/ It has an adverse effect on the surrounding environment 4/ It is accelerating the demise of the Barrier Reef 5/ It increases our already massive per capita climate emissions.
6/ It contributes to increased mega-fires and losses of native animal habitat .

The mixed messaging around coal was a drag on the Labor vote & Bob Browns caravan firmed up the vote for ScoMo.
WE have the Government the people elected.

 

[Kwality]

Admittedly I exaggerated that point and probably shouldn’t have said anything because it’s been done to death and in the past.
However it was so counterproductive and only allowed Palmer and Morrison to back up the ridiculous claim that “Bill Shorten and the Greens are going to take your jobs” as well as the embarrassment that was the fear campaign with bloody electric vehicles.
They should have been using facts to show that not only is Adani a waste of money it’s not going to create fu** all long term employment after it’s built but renewable energy will give the people in the regions much more employment opportunities and sustainable.
Instead they let the RW media have a field day about the “out of touch elites”

The claims over Adani were/are unsupported by fact. The coal will go to India, developing power needs to increase the standard of living.
In India, like China, they are building more coal fired power stations with a life well past the magic 2050 date.

Instead of blaming others for the electoral result of the unloseable election, accept the failure & get electable.
Note, you missed Murdoch whilst obfuscating blame for the defeat. Not you fault though.

 

[Taylor]

The claims over Adani were/are unsupported by fact. The coal will go to India, developing power needs to increase the standard of living.
In India, like China, they are building more coal fired power stations with a life well past the magic 2050 date.

Instead of blaming others for the electoral result of the unloseable election, accept the failure & get electable.
Note, you missed Murdoch whilst obfuscating blame for the defeat. Not you fault though.

The people don't know what's good for them. But we do.

- Every Tyrannical Political Ideology Ever

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Reality is we don't have enough batteries to cover 10 million plus homes

Again, a straw man. That's not what people are suggesting. They're suggesting a transition that involves retiring generation assets as they stop being useful. That means phasing in batteries over 10-20 years.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Again, a straw man. That's not what people are suggesting. They're suggesting a transition that involves retiring generation assets as they stop being useful. That means phasing in batteries over 10-20 years.

we need to replace the generation in the hunter and latrobe valley now, not in 15 years.

there is no time for transition with existing assets. Remember one solution in the hunter is for the govt to buy the powerplant for $1b, just to buy an extra 2-4 years.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

They should have been using facts to show that not only is Adani a waste of money it’s not going to create fu** all long term employment after it’s built but renewable energy will give the people in the regions much more employment opportunities and sustainable.

How do you know they weren't stating that? The media was always going to portray them as villains because that's what Australian media does.

I'm not going to say my state is the most intelligent one, but to suggest that Bob Brown lost the election for Labor is to treat Queenslanders as simple-minded fools who cannot tell the difference between a retired Greens politician and the present-day Labor Party. It may have changed the votes of a few mouth-breathers who know nothing at all about politics, but plenty of people had very different reasons for not voting for Labor. Many knew that Shorten was a major figure in the ousting of Queensland's favourite son Kevin Rudd, and weren't happy with him because of that, and Shorten's complete lack of charisma didn't help matters. Perhaps an even bigger issue was the successful media scare campaign on franking credits, death duties and other taxes. People care a lot about their back pockets, and didn't trust Shorten to look after it.

I'd argue that if the Brown convoy was truly that influential in changing votes, the swing against Labor would have at most been confined to Central Queensland and other rural or coal-mining areas, almost all of which vote LNP anyway. But it wasn't. Where Labor really lost the election in Queensland was in the mortgage belt surrounding Brisbane, which is where the marginal electorates are. All of them swung heavily towards the LNP, despite precious few of the people in those areas having anything at all to do with the coal industry. Even Jim Chalmers' seat of Rankin, which contains some of the most heavily Labor areas in the state, had a 5% swing against him.

By the way, the Greens vote actually went up in Capricornia, showing that whatever damage the convoy caused, it wasn't to the Greens.

 

[Kwality]

Again, a straw man. That's not what people are suggesting. They're suggesting a transition that involves retiring generation assets as they stop being useful. That means phasing in batteries over 10-20 years.

There is a clear understanding of the life of the coal fired power stations*, yet no program for a battery build that I have ever seen. Given the absolute snafu that is the east coast gas market, gas seems unlikely to be the answer to 24/7 power as coal assets are retired.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_Australia

 

[Johnny Bananas]

we need to replace the generation in the hunter and latrobe valley now, not in 15 years.

there is no time for transition with existing assets. Remember one solution in the hunter is for the govt to buy the powerplant for $1b, just to buy an extra 2-4 years.

That's a pretty big exaggeration. Liddell indeed will close in the next couple of years but Bayswater and Eraring, which have far bigger capacities, will be around for another 15 years at least. They both use superior technology to Liddell, which is particularly carbon-heavy for a black coal plant, because it's so old. Loy Yang is only scheduled to be scrapped in the 2040s. Yallourn has been brought forward to 2028, but that's hardly imminent. And both Liddell and Yallourn are going to be replaced with very large batteries, which will be able to replace them in terms of baseload.

So I have no idea what evidence you're using to say "there is no time for transition with existing assets". There's plenty of time for transition. I also don't know on what basis you're suggesting that Liddell and Yallourn power 10 million homes, when they're not even the biggest generators in their states, they're just the oldest and most polluting.