Prediction Fixing our forward line

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

It's all going to depend on who is considered best 22 and where they end up playing, but last year we had Army kick 16 from 15 games, Levi 18 from 20 games, Charlie got 5 from 6, Gibbs 18 from 22, Jones 9 from 8, Lamb got 13 from 15, Silvagni 7 from 8, and Wright with 22 from 22. Kerridge wasn't really used forward, but in previous years at Adelaide he's gone 13 from 11 games and 10 from 14 games, Palmer also managed 13 from 12 games at GWS and has gone at slightly better than a goal a game for a couple of years prior to that.
All these players are capable of getting a goal a game while keeping the forward line unpredictable and that doesn't even allow for natural progression for the likes of SOS and Charlie. Based on preseason form, there's no reason to think that Pickett couldn't get at least a goal a game. In 3 JLT games, averaging 84% game time and sharing that time between forward and back, Weitering managed 2 goals while looking dangerous and handy at times.
The biggest problem is the quality and frequency of delivery into the 50. We can kick winning scores with output like that. Not every week though.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I go back to my original comment. Why do we need to wait for 2018? Are we playing for NOW or the future?

I believe we are building our next great side which will take 4-5 years minimum. Like Bulldogs, Saints, GWS & Demons have done you need to play the kids asap and get past the average players that won't take you anywhere.

I think depending on the uptake of development of these players it may be possible to trim that to 3 - 4 years, depending on how quickly the youngsters are developing. But generally, I am in agreement with you. The quicker we can trim the average players from the list, the better.

 

[therubbernub]

If its a choice between Jack or Jaksch, the latter has done more in the offseason to earn their selection as far as I'm concerned. Not saying he's not going to be a good long term option, but think there's value in Jack playing VFL for now.

Agree. Give KJ a go. Whats the worse that can happen? Jack I fear will go backwards this year and should not have the weight of expectation on his shoulders. Let Jack go back to the VFL kickhis 4-5 a game and come back in full of confidence

 

[Smegger]

Jaksch has to be given more game time in the seniors so that he gets some confidence, otherwise he will just lose interest playing in the seconds all the time. I cannot imagine any player having less intensity than Jones, who has the build for a kpp but just goes missing all the time. It is time for Jaksch to be played or got rid of, like Jones will be at the end of this season.

Character test. Fight or flight? We're not privy to inside info but it appears that CFC has given KJ every opportunity to meet required personal targets. I'm assuming that he will play only when they are met.

 

[La Dispute]

Wasn't KJ in better form than Jack at VFL level? Like, he had a patch of 10 solid weeks but was overlooked after Jack had a few really strong performances?

 

[slashin_velvet]

Wasn't KJ in better form than Jack at VFL level? Like, he had a patch of 10 solid weeks but was overlooked after Jack had a few really strong performances?

Certainly did. Was consistently performing as a forward, and yet the MC picked Jack after 3 or so good performances, and also favoured Liam Jones for some reason.

There has to be more to it. I'd like the club to be a bit more transparent about it tbh

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I remember Casboult smashing plenty of our players too lol. Wasn't Walker and Charlie injured directly as a result of Casboult?? Seriously though as many have said he's not a smart player, if you want a big body I think Rowe is a better candidate. Can crash and bash, is more intelligent, can kick straight, has been in the leadership group, can also contest in the ruck to give Kruezer a break. The young players will get more protection and development from Rowe than Casboult, as he won't be sucking the confidence out of players by kicking the ball oob and points which kills momentum as well.

Rowe is an option worth trying and a lot want KJ tried out as well.

If you search on contested marks, not uncontested marks, Sam Rowe is a long way off Levi. He does have Levi covered in kicking and other areas as you have alluded to. But we need contested marks in the fwd line. This is not Rowe's speciality. Sam Rowe's best attribute is punching the ball. As for clangers, Rowe outperforms most of the AFL....but agree Casboult is the clanger king.

Rowe is slow, not a good contested mark, and also not a good decision maker. Great for opposition defenders if he became the permanent fwd.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Rowe is an option worth trying and a lot want KJ tried out as well.

If you search on contested marks, not uncontested marks, Sam Rowe is a long way off Levi. He does have Levi covered in kicking and other areas as you have alluded to. But we need contested marks in the fwd line. This is not Rowe's speciality. Sam Rowe's best attribute is punching the ball. As for clangers, Rowe outperforms most of the AFL....but agree Casboult is the clanger king.

Rowe is slow, not a good contested mark, and also not a good decision maker. Great for opposition defenders if he became the permanent fwd.

You can't use contested marks to compare Levi and Rowe. One plays as a KPD, the other a KPF. If you look at the league leaders for contested marks, they are just about all forwards. A defenders job is generally to spoil or contest the ball from a position of weakness. A forward is generally in a stronger position in a marking contest.

For all his deficiencies and his detractors, most would say that Rowe is a competent defender. Not one of the best in the league, but far from the worst and led the league in 1%ers. Could anyone honestly call Levi a competent forward? What does he lead the league in? His best attribute is his marking. He can claim to be top 10 in that category, but where does it get him as a forward? Barely top 80 for total goals and not even top 120 for average goals. Same average as Schache, an 18/19yo first year player and Goldstein, a bloke that probably spends 90% of his time in the ruck.

The only info we have to compare him to Rowe is from Rowe's first year. He played 10 games, mostly as a forward, but with stints in the ruck. He averaged 1.3 contested marks and 1.5 marks inside 50, but this was his first season of AFL footy. In comparison, in his 5th season (when a KPF should really be hitting his straps), Levi averaged 2.3 cont and 1.9 marks i50. Surely Rowe could match that with consistent forward time? With straighter kicking, he actually wouldn't need to match Levi's marking numbers to match (or better) his output on the scoreboard.

Levi kicks 0.39 goals per contested mark and 0.47 goals per mark i50
League leaders in those categories for a KPF?
Josh Kennedy - 1.95 goals per cont mark (averages of 1.8 cont and 3.8 i50)
Lance Franklin - 1.09 goals per mark i50 (averages of 1.6 cont and 2.8 i50)
Neither of them are top 20 in the league for contested marks, but both are top 10 for marks i50. Levi is considered one of the best contested marks in league by a lot of people, but it doesn't translate to scoreboard impact. His leading is terrible. His kicking action is terrible. His ground/follow up work is terrible. His forward defensive pressure is terrible. His rucking is adequate and his marking is exceptional.
I used to defend him a lot myself, but I just can't do it anymore. I don't think he has a spot in the side anymore and I'd rather try Rowe, Weitering, Jaksch, McKay (even though he's not ready yet) or even Jones. Hell, we had a pretty good backline last year with Rowe, Weiters and Plowman, throw Marchbank forward for a stretch of games.

Unfortunately I have little doubt that he will line up in the goal square come rd1 and play 18+ games, injuries permitting, but he's going to have to do a lot to get me back on board.

Sorry for the rant, but needed to get that off my chest.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Liam Jones is not going to play AFL, but i fear he could stunt Harrys development in the VFL if he is played forward and becomes ab key option. Harry needs to learn to play on the big bodied defenders and dominate the forward 50.. This is why i think we should have agreed to part ways with Jones last year.

 

[Jeremias]

I am not overly concerned by our forward line at the moment.

No doubt we will struggle for goals in the immediate future but I think we've got a fair bit of young quality up there which will be exciting to watch over the next few years as they develop as players and as a unit.

SOS, CC, Pickett and Harry is a good young quartet to build around and I expect them all to feature at senior level this year. LeBois looks a talent but is further back and certainly needs more time and development before we see him regularly at senior level.

More quality is needed there, no doubt, but I do think a few pieces are already there for a really dangerous forward line a couple of years down the track.

Then, if you put Weitering in there as well.........

 

[therubbernub]

You can't use contested marks to compare Levi and Rowe. One plays as a KPD, the other a KPF. If you look at the league leaders for contested marks, they are just about all forwards. A defenders job is generally to spoil or contest the ball from a position of weakness. A forward is generally in a stronger position in a marking contest.

For all his deficiencies and his detractors, most would say that Rowe is a competent defender. Not one of the best in the league, but far from the worst and led the league in 1%ers. Could anyone honestly call Levi a competent forward? What does he lead the league in? His best attribute is his marking. He can claim to be top 10 in that category, but where does it get him as a forward? Barely top 80 for total goals and not even top 120 for average goals. Same average as Schache, an 18/19yo first year player and Goldstein, a bloke that probably spends 90% of his time in the ruck.

The only info we have to compare him to Rowe is from Rowe's first year. He played 10 games, mostly as a forward, but with stints in the ruck. He averaged 1.3 contested marks and 1.5 marks inside 50, but this was his first season of AFL footy. In comparison, in his 5th season (when a KPF should really be hitting his straps), Levi averaged 2.3 cont and 1.9 marks i50. Surely Rowe could match that with consistent forward time? With straighter kicking, he actually wouldn't need to match Levi's marking numbers to match (or better) his output on the scoreboard.

Levi kicks 0.39 goals per contested mark and 0.47 goals per mark i50
League leaders in those categories for a KPF?
Josh Kennedy - 1.95 goals per cont mark (averages of 1.8 cont and 3.8 i50)
Lance Franklin - 1.09 goals per mark i50 (averages of 1.6 cont and 2.8 i50)
Neither of them are top 20 in the league for contested marks, but both are top 10 for marks i50. Levi is considered one of the best contested marks in league by a lot of people, but it doesn't translate to scoreboard impact. His leading is terrible. His kicking action is terrible. His ground/follow up work is terrible. His forward defensive pressure is terrible. His rucking is adequate and his marking is exceptional.
I used to defend him a lot myself, but I just can't do it anymore. I don't think he has a spot in the side anymore and I'd rather try Rowe, Weitering, Jaksch, McKay (even though he's not ready yet) or even Jones. Hell, we had a pretty good backline last year with Rowe, Weiters and Plowman, throw Marchbank forward for a stretch of games.

Unfortunately I have little doubt that he will line up in the goal square come rd1 and play 18+ games, injuries permitting, but he's going to have to do a lot to get me back on board.

Sorry for the rant, but needed to get that off my chest.

All good points. So if everything goes according to last year, then levi is not our answer. It is clear.
But I still hold out the idea that if Levi is part of a much better structured forward line then, he may become much more effective. Now where can this structure improvement possibly come from.

a. Weitering up forward. The guy can play anywhere, and given our deficiencies up forward, there is a strong valid argument that he should. The addition of marchbank could help compensate for his loss and we could theoretically have a forward line that is at roughly the same level as last year. Not brilliant but certainly quite solid.

b. Jack. I do have my reservations about jack and the weight of expectations, but he has certainly put on plenty of bulk and will have much better fitness. In theory, he should be a better player this year than last. Lets just not expect him to kick 50.

c. Charlie. The guy showed glimpses last year that suggest that he would be a very effective roaming high half forward. His strength and fitness whilst great for a first year player looks to have improved significantly in the off-season. He will be a better player than last year and hopefully his run of sickness and injury is behind him.

d. Jaksche. Do or die year for him. Many thought he deserved a run in the seniors last year. He is laconic and will always look a bit soft. But hopefully the penny has dropped in the offseason with an impending delisting if he doesnt lift his output a few notches. Could surprise.

e. harry. Still growing and at his height that needs management. But the guy can play. he is very mobile for his height, can take a grab and is a good kick. Just having him as a third tall will give opposing match committees reason to pick an appropriate defender to put on him

Any combination of 2 of the above potentially gives us a much better structure. If Levi is part of a three pronged attack he could surprise and become much more effective. Being double and triple teamed all the time can and has reduced much better players to just average players

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

All good points. So if everything goes according to last year, then levi is not our answer. It is clear.
But I still hold out the idea that if Levi is part of a much better structured forward line then, he may become much more effective. Now where can this structure improvement possibly come from.

a. Weitering up forward. The guy can play anywhere, and given our deficiencies up forward, there is a strong valid argument that he should. The addition of marchbank could help compensate for his loss and we could theoretically have a forward line that is at roughly the same level as last year. Not brilliant but certainly quite solid.

b. Jack. I do have my reservations about jack and the weight of expectations, but he has certainly put on plenty of bulk and will have much better fitness. In theory, he should be a better player this year than last. Lets just not expect him to kick 50.

c. Charlie. The guy showed glimpses last year that suggest that he would be a very effective roaming high half forward. His strength and fitness whilst great for a first year player looks to have improved significantly in the off-season. He will be a better player than last year and hopefully his run of sickness and injury is behind him.

d. Jaksche. Do or die year for him. Many thought he deserved a run in the seniors last year. He is laconic and will always look a bit soft. But hopefully the penny has dropped in the offseason with an impending delisting if he doesnt lift his output a few notches. Could surprise.

e. harry. Still growing and at his height that needs management. But the guy can play. he is very mobile for his height, can take a grab and is a good kick. Just having him as a third tall will give opposing match committees reason to pick an appropriate defender to put on him

Any combination of 2 of the above potentially gives us a much better structure. If Levi is part of a three pronged attack he could surprise and become much more effective. Being double and triple teamed all the time can and has reduced much better players to just average players

Fair assessment. I need to see it before I believe it though. Just lost all confidence in him.

 

[BluesRule]

Wow lot of good discussion here...

my view is Weitering adds more value to us forward than back in 2017. Last year Weiters proved a very capable backman, especially for a first year player. This year he should be played forward as he fills a massive hole in our team structure - and lets develop Marchbank and Macreadie down back too fill the void (both have enormous potential IMO). We also have depth and experience down back with COSOS and Rowe for 2017 while others (JGM) develop. Weiters is agile, can mark, can kick, etc. etc. His leadership would be Gold in our forward line. However I did hear Bolts say he will be a backman... but I hope that changes as the next best option is KJ. Bit too early for Kerr to play AFL yet, Liam is not up to it, and I would prefer Rowe back.

Pickett has done enough in the JLT to play round 1. Also fills a massive hole we had in 2016 for a speedy goalsneak. Could see him getting 2 goals a game+ if he is working at the feet of ....

Casboult plays as the backup ruck for Kreuzer. Harry Mac can develop in the N.Blues till ready to replace Casboult. Gorringe is our logical rucy replacement/backup with experience. Korchek is not good enough right now, so Casboult gets a game as Fwd/Ruck until he proves incapable of holding his spot or Kreuzer proves that no backup is required.

SOSOS did enough in 2016 to stay in the team. He is tall mobile agile and smart. He kicks well, applies pressure, gets in the right spots.... Just needs games and development.

Charlie C. I like forward but also really want him playing midfield. If he can get plenty of ball as a midfielder who roams forward then that would be perfect. Really exciting year for CC.

Wright - I like the way Wright has come into CFC and played good footy. Not a superstar but very reliable and accountable. I know we have faster options in lebois, Army, Sumner, Gallucci possibly even Kerridge and Lamb, but I think Wright can play solid midfield minutes to let Cripps and Murphy, etc. rest forward to give the team more flexibility. Kerridge was good last week but Wright is more consistently good. Army is faster but also not as consistent/clean IMO. Palmer another option but not sure on his injury yet. Buckley, Boek, Daisy, further back in my mind (but would not be surprised to see Daisy lining up in round 1)

It is great to see that up forward we have options and hopefully in 2017 a few of these boys become AFL stars.

 

[ferrisb]

View attachment 344561

Rowe is more than a lumbering giant. Always excells in 1%'s

I think he led the league in 1%ers last year?

Not sure if right, but Rowe seems to me to be the kind of player that is slow, lumbering, lacks polished disposal and decision-making, but you take him out of the team and we are worse off....

 

[Metalcrusher]

Agreed .. cannot get rid of the slow lumbering dinosaur yet .....

And BR above ... Wright at this stage will be required for at least 2-3 more seasons...... he is only 27 and adds value.

 

[TooBlue14]

Liam Jones is not going to play AFL, but i fear he could stunt Harrys development in the VFL if he is played forward and becomes ab key option. Harry needs to learn to play on the big bodied defenders and dominate the forward 50.. This is why i think we should have agreed to part ways with Jones last year.

1 more jones year will help McKays development as he will get the second best vfl defender followed by the best when jo es is moved on in 2018.

 

[Soapy V]

1 more jones year will help McKays development as he will get the second best vfl defender followed by the best when jo es is moved on in 2018.

Wouldn't it be more beneficial if McKay is getting the best VFL defender each week? That's effectively the 3rd or 4th best AFL defender. The better the opposition the better the lesson. Listening to McKay and how he approaches the game I reckon he would thrive on it. Good forwards do

 

[Stig O'Hara]

No love for Kerr??

 

[The Dominator7]

No love for Kerr??

That just made me think....how the hell do you get Kerr, Jones, KJ and H-Mac into the same NB forward line for " "development"...surely someone makes way if none are playing seniors straight up??

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

That just made me think....how the hell do you get Kerr, Jones, KJ and H-Mac into the same NB forward line for " "development"...surely someone makes way if none are playing seniors straight up??

Not sure of the NB's ruck situation but if they are as light on as we are ATM, maybe Jones plays there initially?

 

[slashin_velvet]

Not sure of the NB's ruck situation but if they are as light on as we are ATM, maybe Jones plays there initially?

Korcheck will play 1st ruck with HMac giving him the chop out one would expect.

Would result in a forward line of KJ, Jones and Kerr with a rotating ruck and benchtime, you'd only have 3 talls in the forward line most of the time.

 

[Jimmae]

Korcheck will play 1st ruck with HMac giving him the chop out one would expect.

Would result in a forward line of KJ, Jones and Kerr with a rotating ruck and benchtime, you'd only have 3 talls in the forward line most of the time.

Gorringe should be back in the mix as well.

 

[slashin_velvet]

For mine, our club needs to employ Jonathan Brown.

It's more than just kicking technique. It's drilling in mongrel and a specific mind set when you cross that white line. That the ball must end up in your hands in the forward line. Want it more than anyone else. Demand it. For Casboult and Jaksch, Sav has been ok, but Sav can be benched if Jono is available. He's based in Melbourne... surely CFC could make an enquiry.

Sam Pang to slip a word in during radio show prep?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

For mine, our club needs to employ Jonathan Brown.

It's more than just kicking technique. It's drilling in mongrel and a specific mind set when you cross that white line. That the ball must end up in your hands in the forward line. Want it more than anyone else. Demand it. For Casboult and Jaksch, Sav has been ok, but Sav can be benched if Jono is available. He's based in Melbourne... surely CFC could make an enquiry.

I wouldn't say no to this.

 

[BluesRule]

For mine, our club needs to employ Jonathan Brown.

It's more than just kicking technique. It's drilling in mongrel and a specific mind set when you cross that white line. That the ball must end up in your hands in the forward line. Want it more than anyone else. Demand it. For Casboult and Jaksch, Sav has been ok, but Sav can be benched if Jono is available. He's based in Melbourne... surely CFC could make an enquiry.

And his daughter is a big Blues fan apparently...