Fixture Fixture 2022

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saintbill said:
Mate, I am not one to normally moan about these sort of things. Never complain about umps, Friday night games etc.

However, nobody could objectively look at our fixture without drawing the conclusion we were absolutely robbed.

3 of our 5 double up games are against top 6 sides from last year that one 15 games or more. That is insane for a side that finished outside the 8 and not something any other side has being dished up. Not even Dees, Lions, or Cats.

Of the middle 6 teams they gave us games against they choose Freo, the most likely to rise. They give us Hawks from bottom 6, again the most dangerous from the bottom 6. No Hawks, Crows (who are better than expected).

We also travel 7 times, some clubs travel 4.

To suggest that is an okay fixture for any side is a stretch. To suggest it is an okay fixture for a side that didn't make top 8 last year is madness.

A fixture this bad is at least 2 standard deviations greater than what could be expected for a non top 8 side.
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Clubs like us beg to play the big-drawing sides like Coll and Ess in Melbourne as home games. Thats why we travel more than them. "Fixture requests" from Clubs is another compromise.

What the On and Off-Field Depts of an AFL club wants are often very very different
 
saintbill said:
Mate, I am not one to normally moan about these sort of things. Never complain about umps, Friday night games etc.

However, nobody could objectively look at our fixture without drawing the conclusion we were absolutely robbed.

3 of our 5 double up games are against top 6 sides from last year that one 15 games or more. That is insane for a side that finished outside the 8 and not something any other side has being dished up. Not even Dees, Lions, or Cats.

Of the middle 6 teams they gave us games against they choose Freo, the most likely to rise. They give us Hawks from bottom 6, again the most dangerous from the bottom 6. No Hawks, Crows (who are better than expected).

We also travel 7 times, some clubs travel 4.

To suggest that is an okay fixture for any side is a stretch. To suggest it is an okay fixture for a side that didn't make top 8 last year is madness.

A fixture this bad is at least 2 standard deviations greater than what could be expected for a non top 8 side.
Click to expand...
And two years in a row...
 
saintbill said:
Mate, I am not one to normally moan about these sort of things. Never complain about umps, Friday night games etc.

However, nobody could objectively look at our fixture without drawing the conclusion we were absolutely robbed.

3 of our 5 double up games are against top 6 sides from last year that one 15 games or more. That is insane for a side that finished outside the 8 and not something any other side has being dished up. Not even Dees, Lions, or Cats.

Of the middle 6 teams they gave us games against they choose Freo, the most likely to rise. They give us Hawks from bottom 6, again the most dangerous from the bottom 6. No Hawks, Crows (who are better than expected).

We also travel 7 times, some clubs travel 4.

To suggest that is an okay fixture for any side is a stretch. To suggest it is an okay fixture for a side that didn't make top 8 last year is madness.

A fixture this bad is at least 2 standard deviations greater than what could be expected for a non top 8 side.
Click to expand...
This is all completely hindsight.

First off, we have 2 double ups from lats years top 6 - Brisbane and Geelong. So we avoided both grand finalists. Not too bad.

We have 2 from the middle 6 - Sydney and Freo. Both have ended up being good but no one predicted Fremantle to be this good this year. We have also already beaten them in Perth so we are ahead on the current ledger. Sydney were as likely to drop a bit this year with a young team as they were to rise again. We beat them once last year and had a close loss so it is not like we cant compete with them.

And 1 from the bottom 6 - Hawthorn. You say now they were the most dangerous but a significant amount of people tipped them for the wooden spoon with their new coach.
 

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BrutThough said:
This is all completely hindsight.

First off, we have 2 double ups from lats years top 6 - Brisbane and Geelong. So we avoided both grand finalists. Not too bad.

We have 2 from the middle 6 - Sydney and Freo. Both have ended up being good but no one predicted Fremantle to be this good this year. We have also already beaten them in Perth so we are ahead on the current ledger. Sydney were as likely to drop a bit this year with a young team as they were to rise again. We beat them once last year and had a close loss so it is not like we cant compete with them.

And 1 from the bottom 6 - Hawthorn. You say now they were the most dangerous but a significant amount of people tipped them for the wooden spoon with their new coach.
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Brisbane, Cats, Swans all won 15+ games last year. 7 interstate trips.

Not sure how this is all completely hindsight? These are straight facts.

Show me any other team that has to play 3 teams that won 15+ games last year and has to travel this much.

Genuinely perplexed by your post. The only point you could make is Freo and Hawks are better than expected. However even then, Hawks were at the top part of the bottom 6. No games against North, Crows etc.

There is no hindsight here. At the start of the year there were articles written about how bad our draw is, that was before we definitely knew Freo and Hawks would he better.
 
saintbill said:
Brisbane, Cats, Swans all won 15+ games last year. 7 interstate trips.

Not sure how this is all completely hindsight? These are straight facts.

Show me any other team that has to play 3 teams that won 15+ games last year and has to travel this much.

Genuinely perplexed by your post. The only point you could make is Freo and Hawks are better than expected. However even then, Hawks were at the top part of the bottom 6. No games against North, Crows etc.

There is no hindsight here. At the start of the year there were articles written about how bad our draw is, that was before we definitely knew Freo and Hawks would he better.
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It is complete hindsight. No one knows which teams will rise or fall in November. Of the 5 teams we have double ups against, we beat 4 of them last year and had 2 close losses to the other.

You say now that Freo were always going to rise but you are only saying that now because they have started the season off well. You say Hawthorn were the most threatening bottom 6 team despite them getting a brand new coach and being one of the favourites for the wooden spoon. Sydney lost their final and finished in the middle 6 bracket so it is fair game to get them.

7 interstate trips is pretty normal for us. Dogs have 6 so the one extra we have is the one we have sold out of Victoria. It is a lot less than what every non-Victorian team has to do. And if we can't win on the road, then we dont deserve to make finals anyway.
 
saintbill said:
Brisbane, Cats, Swans all won 15+ games last year. 7 interstate trips.

Not sure how this is all completely hindsight? These are straight facts.

Show me any other team that has to play 3 teams that won 15+ games last year and has to travel this much.

Genuinely perplexed by your post. The only point you could make is Freo and Hawks are better than expected. However even then, Hawks were at the top part of the bottom 6. No games against North, Crows etc.

There is no hindsight here. At the start of the year there were articles written about how bad our draw is, that was before we definitely knew Freo and Hawks would he better.
Click to expand...
I dont recall any articles about how hard our draw was

In 2021...yes.
 
saintbill said:
FMD, I don't normally like to complain about this stuff but our draw is disgusting. How do we end up with a significantly harder draw than every other top 4 candidate after missing finals last year? Simply unbelievable.

There are 6 teams that can make top 4. Dees, Lions, Cats, Saints, Swans, Freo.

Dees are a lock. The rest have piss easy draws compared to us. Lions have to play Dees twice but that is a joke, as they play round 22 when Dees will rest their entire squad. Lions draw is soooooo easy outside apart from that. They are making top 4 when you consider they will be gifted round 22.

That leaves 2 spots for 4 teams. Given we play the other contenders twice (mind blowing), we are going to have to beat at least 2 of the other teams twice to make it IMO. Freo should happen, which leaves Cats and Swans. Have to go 2-0 against 1 of these teams to make top 4.

In essence if we manage to pull off top 4 with this fixture we will need to be the second best side in the comp this year.

Unbelievably bad draw. Almost looks intentional to be honest. Nobody is this unlucky.
Click to expand...


Freo and Swans were around our level on last years ladder. Geelong just ahead of us. We tend to be seen as irrelevant to the AFL because we don't bring crowds and others don't request to play us. On top of that we've been in a holding pattern of around mid table for so long we don't create hype.

We can control our own destiny by being successful and crowds turning up to games. The way we are playing I don't feel like we are far off any of those sides. I'd split points with all of them where they win on their deck and we win on our.....only we have already taken Freo's home game off them.

If we win through to top 4 we have done it the hard way and go in battle hardened and in form. That's exactly the way you want it.
 
BrutThough said:
It is complete hindsight. No one knows which teams will rise or fall in November. Of the 5 teams we have double ups against, we beat 4 of them last year and had 2 close losses to the other.

You say now that Freo were always going to rise but you are only saying that now because they have started the season off well. You say Hawthorn were the most threatening bottom 6 team despite them getting a brand new coach and being one of the favourites for the wooden spoon. Sydney lost their final and finished in the middle 6 bracket so it is fair game to get them.

7 interstate trips is pretty normal for us. Dogs have 6 so the one extra we have is the one we have sold out of Victoria. It is a lot less than what every non-Victorian team has to do. And if we can't win on the road, then we dont deserve to make finals anyway.
Click to expand...

Mmm, not sure if we really agree on the definition of hindsight. Of course any team can rise or fall. However, surely wins based from the previous year predicts the probability of wins the next year. Or do you think Dees being better than North this year is simply "hindsight". Some random event that could not be reasonably predicted?

How about we look at the actual data? If we simply look at wins and percentage last year and who each team has to play twice, you will notice that the average win/loss for our opponents is 12.8 wins with an average percentage of 110%. Far above sides that finished in the top 6 last year. Can't be bothered doing this on every side, but here is a decent sample of last years best teams.

The average win/loss for opponents played twice is typically 11 games and a percentage a bit about 100%, significantly lower than the opponents we play twice. We should have an easier draw, not harder than last years top tier teams.

On paper the only club based on last years data even close to a draw as hard as ours is the Dees. Its actually statistically very significant. For context GWS finished 7th last year with 11.5 wins and a percentage of under 100% Our average side played twice is 12.8 wins with a percentage of 100%! That's insane for any side let alone one that finished 10th!

Again, last years win/losses are not hindsight it is a trend. Of course there will be teams that rise and fall, but last years win/loss record is a bloody good start. I don't even know how this is a debate to be honest. The data is right there, take a look.

Opponents played twice in 2022 analysis:
SAINTS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Geelong16126.7
Brisbane15133.3
Sydney15119.9
Fremantle1086.5
Hawks885.2
Average12.8110.32
LIONS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Essendon11109.1
Gold Coast776.8
GWS11.599.7
Melbourne17.5130.8
Saints1091.5
Average11.4101.58
SWANS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Essendon11109.1
North470.3
GWS11.599.7
Saints1091.5
Dogs15132.8
Average10.3100.68
DEES
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Brisbane15133.3
Collingwood685.6
Freo1086.5
Port17126.3
Dogs15132.8
Average12.6112.9
GEELONG
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
North470.3
Saints1091.5
Eagles1093.2
Port17126.3
Dogs15132.8
Average11.2102.82
 
gringo2011 said:
Freo and Swans were around our level on last years ladder. Geelong just ahead of us. We tend to be seen as irrelevant to the AFL because we don't bring crowds and others don't request to play us. On top of that we've been in a holding pattern of around mid table for so long we don't create hype.

We can control our own destiny by being successful and crowds turning up to games. The way we are playing I don't feel like we are far off any of those sides. I'd split points with all of them where they win on their deck and we win on our.....only we have already taken Freo's home game off them.

If we win through to top 4 we have done it the hard way and go in battle hardened and in form. That's exactly the way you want it.
Click to expand...
If we make top 4 we will absolutely deserve it:thumbsu: Particularly when you look at the sides we will be competing with, Swans, Lions etc have a far easier fixture.
 
saintbill said:
Mmm, not sure if we really agree on the definition of hindsight. Of course any team can rise or fall. However, surely wins based from the previous year predicts the probability of wins the next year. Or do you think Dees being better than North this year is simply "hindsight". Some random event that could not be reasonably predicted?

How about we look at the actual data? If we simply look at wins and percentage last year and who each team has to play twice, you will notice that the average win/loss for our opponents is 12.8 wins with an average percentage of 110%. Far above sides that finished in the top 6 last year. Can't be bothered doing this on every side, but here is a decent sample of last years best teams.

The average win/loss for opponents played twice is typically 11 games and a percentage a bit about 100%, significantly lower than the opponents we play twice. We should have an easier draw, not harder than last years top tier teams.

On paper the only club based on last years data even close to a draw as hard as ours is the Dees. Its actually statistically very significant. For context GWS finished 7th last year with 11.5 wins and a percentage of under 100% Our average side played twice is 12.8 wins with a percentage of 100%! That's insane for any side let alone one that finished 10th!

Again, last years win/losses are not hindsight it is a trend. Of course there will be teams that rise and fall, but last years win/loss record is a bloody good start. I don't even know how this is a debate to be honest. The data is right there, take a look.

Opponents played twice in 2022 analysis:
SAINTS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Geelong16126.7
Brisbane15133.3
Sydney15119.9
Fremantle1086.5
Hawks885.2
Average12.8110.32
LIONS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Essendon11109.1
Gold Coast776.8
GWS11.599.7
Melbourne17.5130.8
Saints1091.5
Average11.4101.58
SWANS
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Essendon11109.1
North470.3
GWS11.599.7
Saints1091.5
Dogs15132.8
Average10.3100.68
DEES
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
Brisbane15133.3
Collingwood685.6
Freo1086.5
Port17126.3
Dogs15132.8
Average12.6112.9
GEELONG
Teams played 2 times:WinsPercentage
North470.3
Saints1091.5
Eagles1093.2
Port17126.3
Dogs15132.8
Average11.2102.82
Click to expand...
They don't do the double ups based on win/loss. They do it off the three segments of the ladder.

We got 2 from the top (neither of them a Grand Finalist), 2 from the middle (one who finished above us and one below us) and 1 from the bottom. That's standard. We beat 4/5 of those teams last year.

From the original comment I responded to - Of the middle 6 teams they gave us games against they choose Freo, the most likely to rise. They give us Hawks from bottom 6, again the most dangerous from the bottom 6. No Hawks, Crows (who are better than expected).

Your comment that Freo were most likely to rise and Hawthorn were the most dangerous from the bottom 6 is complete hindsight based off the results of the first 6 rounds. We have also already beaten both those sides at their home grounds so I don't think those match ups are ones to complain about either.
 
BrutThough said:
They don't do the double ups based on win/loss. They do it off the three segments of the ladder.

We got 2 from the top (neither of them a Grand Finalist), 2 from the middle (one who finished above us and one below us) and 1 from the bottom. That's standard. We beat 4/5 of those teams last year.

From the original comment I responded to - Of the middle 6 teams they gave us games against they choose Freo, the most likely to rise. They give us Hawks from bottom 6, again the most dangerous from the bottom 6. No Hawks, Crows (who are better than expected).

Your comment that Freo were most likely to rise and Hawthorn were the most dangerous from the bottom 6 is complete hindsight based off the results of the first 6 rounds. We have also already beaten both those sides at their home grounds so I don't think those match ups are ones to complain about either.
Click to expand...
I understand how they do the double ups mate, doesn't mean you can't have vastly lopsided draws. GWS and Dees in the same 6. Who would u rather play twice? Obviously win/loss from prior year still relevant.

Not sure you are even reading my posts. I followed up by saying even if you ignore the fact Hawks and Freo likely risers as this is subjective, the data from last year is not.

No matter which way u skin it, we have been reamed.
 
saintbill said:
I understand how they do the double ups mate, doesn't mean you can't have vastly lopsided draws. GWS and Dees in the same 6. Who would u rather play twice? Obviously win/loss from prior year still relevant.

Not sure you are even reading my posts. I followed up by saying even if you ignore the fact Hawks and Freo likely risers as this is subjective, the data from last year is not.

No matter which way u skin it, we have been reamed.
Click to expand...
You don't seem to considering you keep going on about number of wins. And you are correct, I stopped reading your post because those numbers were irrelevant to how the fixture is determined.

You can make us out to be a victim all you want, there is nothing unfair about the fixture we got.
 

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BrutThough said:
You don't seem to considering you keep going on about number of wins. And you are correct, I stopped reading your post because those numbers were irrelevant to how the fixture is determined.

You can make us out to be a victim all you want, there is nothing unfair about the fixture we got.
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Ha ha, your wife must have a rough ride with you. When presented with actual data u won't even look at it because you can't possibly concede on any point🤣
 
saintbill said:
If we make top 4 we will absolutely deserve it:thumbsu: Particularly when you look at the sides we will be competing with, Swans, Lions etc have a far easier fixture.
Click to expand...

Freo and Hawks don't look like the soft wins people were suggesting now.
 
Geez the ladder is funny. We lose to a 1-5 side and actually go up a place to 4th.

Freo pull off a fantastic win in Geelong and go down a spot to 3rd.
 
hangdog said:
Geez the ladder is funny. We lose to a 1-5 side and actually go up a place to 4th.

Freo pull off a fantastic win in Geelong and go down a spot to 3rd.
Click to expand...

A specific position on a ladder is only relevant once a year.
Apart from that , you're up the top, down the bottom or in the middle.
 
squiggle.com.au

How the Fixture Screwed St Kilda - Squiggle

It’s hard to prove the fixture affects any team’s finishing position. To say that, you need to find games that were so close that the result could easily have been different, and establish that they were scheduled in a lopsided way. The only really clear examples of this tend to be...
squiggle.com.au squiggle.com.au

A lot of the venue stuff is true for us every year, and it never gets evened out.
 
The Punter said:
squiggle.com.au

How the Fixture Screwed St Kilda - Squiggle

It’s hard to prove the fixture affects any team’s finishing position. To say that, you need to find games that were so close that the result could easily have been different, and establish that they were scheduled in a lopsided way. The only really clear examples of this tend to be...
squiggle.com.au squiggle.com.au

A lot of the venue stuff is true for us every year, and it never gets evened out.
Click to expand...
Good read

The 6-6-6 fixture model is a farce, given that theres about 150 exemptions and provisos to it

For instance..Port finish bottom 6, Adelaide finish top 6. One of Ports double ups HAS to be to be Adelaide, cos apparently interstate crosstown rivals have to play each other twice. Add that rule for WA, Qld and NSW sides and you might as well not have 6-6-6
 
saint66au said:
Good read

The 6-6-6 fixture model is a farce, given that theres about 150 exemptions and provisos to it

For instance..Port finish bottom 6, Adelaide finish top 6. One of Ports double ups HAS to be to be Adelaide, cos apparently interstate crosstown rivals have to play each other twice. Add that rule for WA, Qld and NSW sides and you might as well not have 6-6-6
Click to expand...
and that was written in 2018

now we've had 4 more years of it
 
#gosaintas said:
and that was written in 2018

now we've had 4 more years of it
Click to expand...
I was trying to find an updated article. They said we had the worst in 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018 and the 9th best in 2016. We definitely had the worst in 2021 and (as it currently appears) we have one of the worst in 2022. Champion Data rated St Kilda's as the easiest in 2019 and 9th easiest in 2020.

Agree that some is self inflicted by selling home games, however being right up there with interstate games year in, year out is getting ridiculous.
 
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