Fixture Fixture 2022

[The Punter]

To be fair, CD use different metrics mostly based on statistical performance of teams. Squiggle's analysis takes into account factors that don't change much over time, such as location of matches and in-built advantages.

A proposed expansion to 20 teams gives the AFL the opportunity to futureproof the fixture. Protect a "rival" pairing who you play twice every year. Then you play one of those pairings twice every nine years, and then you split the other eight pairings (one home, one away). Equalises travel, makes the fixture fairer and more abitrary in the best way.

 

[hangdog]

To be fair, CD use different metrics mostly based on statistical performance of teams. Squiggle's analysis takes into account factors that don't change much over time, such as location of matches and in-built advantages.

A proposed expansion to 20 teams gives the AFL the opportunity to futureproof the fixture. Protect a "rival" pairing who you play twice every year. Then you play one of those pairings twice every nine years, and then you split the other eight pairings (one home, one away). Equalises travel, makes the fixture fairer and more abitrary in the best way.

I like the sound of that. The AFL will never give up their derby games twice a year. But a rotation of double ups between the Victorian sides sounds like a reasonable solution.

I'd also suggest that when they expand to 20 teams in the comp they reduce AFL list sizes by 2-3 players. Only a small change to list sizes but then there's 36-54 AFL quality players able to fill the other two clubs and won't dilute the talent pool much at all. They'd also need to make changes to the rookie list by not allowing formerly or currently listed AFL players eligible to be rookie listed. Make it a GENUINE rookie spot.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Depends how you look at it. Is it an "easier" draw if you play none of last years top 8? Or this years top 8? Or is it more complicated than that?

I posted this the other week and have updated it for this round.

teams currently (end of round 6) in the 8 in blue. Final 8 last year in green. Red for teams final 8 currently AND last year.

1. Melbourne: Dogs H, Suns A, Bombers H, Port A, Giants H, Tigers A. Hawks H to come.

2. Fremantle: Crom A, Eagles A, Giants H, Bombers A, Blues H with a loss to the Saints at home. Cats A to come.

3. Lions: Port H, Bombers A, North H, Pies H, Suns A with a loss to Geelong at home. Swans A to come

4. Swans: Giants A, Cats H, North H, Eagles A, Hawks A with a loss to the Dogs away. Lions H to come.

5. Saints: Fremantle A, Richmond H, Hawks A, Suns H, Giants A with a loss to Collingwood at home. Port H/A to come

6. Geelong: Essendon H, Collingwood A, Brisbane H, North A with losses to Sydney away and Hawthorn away. Freo H to come.

7. Carlton: Richmond H, Dogs A, Hawks H, Port H with loses to the Suns away and Freo away. North H to come.

8. Collingwood: Saints A, Crom H, Essendon H with losses to Geelong at home, West Coast at home (LOL), Brisbane away. Suns H to come.

9. Hawks: North H, Port A, Geelong H with losses to Carlton away, St Kilda home and Sydney home. Dees A to come.

Carlton has had the easiest draw in the first 6 rounds by my assessment, yet it's only the Saints being underrated due to an "easy draw". We're about to play our third game interstate (same as Freo and Sydney). The only bottom 4 side we've played were the Giants, and they won't be bottom 4 at seasons end.

My point is, it's quite subjective how difficult a draw is but I'd say we sit somewhere in the middle of the top 8 sides for difficulty thus far.

Bullshit that Melbourne got given such an easy draw. Port are a percentage booster team, dogs are flat as anything, bombers were obviously a dud team, giants haven’t been good since their grand final, everyone knows that and dustyless tigers are a walkover. Hawks almost won the spoon last year for gods sakes.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

it was pretty obvious Freo would be big improvers

According to who lol. I thought they’d drop down the ladder. We smashed them and we were trash last year

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

So we avoided both grand finalists.

They gave us brisbane who look the second best team. And I’d rather play the dogs twice with their d grade backline and non existent forward line. Adelaide beat the dogs lol.

 

[Minga]

It’s not worth getting annoyed about now. Let’s just do the job, anyone, anywhere, anytime.

I, for one, don’t mind versing tough opponents on repeat. I think it shows our young side the level they ought to be playing at. Our only losses thus far have been our own faults.

The other thing is, you just never know what’s going to effect the fixture at what time. Perhaps a team is ravaged by Covid or injuries? Perhaps they’re horribly out of form? Would you like to try and guess what teams those disadvantages would apply to by say round 15? You’d have no chance.

I want to us the to be the hunter, and that properly starts with a double header against Melbourne and Geelong. Bring it on.

 

[The Punter]

I, for one, don’t mind versing tough opponents on repeat.

Properly tough teams should appreciate the poetry.

 

[gringo2011]

Properly tough teams should appreciate the poetry.

Apparently the misuse of "versed" has been put in the dictionary. You can now "verse" an opponent. St Kilda versed Collingwood is correct use now apparently. It grates on me still. It's versus not verses.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Apparently the misuse of "versed" has been put in the dictionary. You can now "verse" an opponent. St Kilda versed Collingwood is correct use now apparently. It grates on me still. It's versus not verses.

arrghhhhh

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Subjunctively muttering his curses
Mr. Gringo has a grudge he still nurses
“Were it up to me,
I’d beat them, you see,”
For confusing verses and versus.”

'Versus' vs. 'Verses'

The ultimate battle.

www.merriam-webster.com

 

[#gosaintas]

arrghhhhh

not happy with versed at all

sound stupid

also unhappy with people calling aussie rules AFL
kids who play for Dingley 3rds aren't playing AFL

 

[hangdog]

According to who lol. I thought they’d drop down the ladder. We smashed them and we were trash last year

I thought natural progression from their high picks like Brayshaw, Serong, Young, Chapman, etc. I am a Brodie fan and am not surprised by how well he's playing. Thought their forward line was their biggest concern but they've accounted for that by being super strong defensively.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

not happy with versed at all

sound stupid

also unhappy with people calling aussie rules AFL
kids who play for Dingley 3rds aren't playing AFL

They aren't sure what to call it , because if they call it football , all the round ball proponents get in a huff, even though their sport is not "the" football. Its a generic term.

I maintain that they should trademark the name it was called while i was growing up. "Foody" though Aussie rules is OK.
And the roundball gits shouldn't get in a huff at the use of Soccer, which is short for Association Football which is what it is if you want to describe it correctly.

Describing it as football without a reference to the type is as stupid as replying "Food" to the question, "what do you want for lunch?".

Call it Foody ( or Footy ) and Soccer and everyone will know what it is.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

I thought natural progression from their high picks like Brayshaw, Serong, Young, Chapman, etc. I am a Brodie fan and am not surprised by how well he's playing. Thought their forward line was their biggest concern but they've accounted for that by being super strong defensively.

Serong I thought would take a while longer to have impact. Young has been injured heaps. Brayshaw I can see. Fyfe has been out injured.

Their forward line is horrid. I don’t know how they’re making it work with Taberner and Lobb and out of form Michael Walters.

 

[lewdogs]

It's interesting going into the last month of the season with our double ups. Look at them compared to the teams around us. How many current top eight teams do we double up against compared to our rivals?

St Kilda = 4 (Fre, Gee, Syd, Bri)
WB = 3 (Mel, Gee, Syd)
Carlton = 2 (Coll, Fre)
Richmond= 1 (Car)

I've got a thread about this on the main board but this is why they need to rotate double ups over a four year period. That right there is the difference between finals and not finals and it shows if we do make the finals from here it will have been an incredible effort.

 

[gringo2011]

It's interesting going into the last month of the season with our double ups. Look at them compared to the teams around us. How many current top eight teams do we double up against compared to our rivals?

St Kilda = 4 (Fre, Gee, Syd, Bri)
WB = 3 (Mel, Gee, Syd)
Carlton = 2 (Coll, Fre)
Richmond= 1 (Car)

I've got a thread about this on the main board but this is why they need to rotate double ups over a four year period. That right there is the difference between finals and not finals and it shows if we do make the finals from here it will have been an incredible effort.

The problem with that is Carlton are a perennial loser. Getting them twice was a win at the start of most years. Same with Freo. Richmond looked like they could be bottom 6 with their patchwork list. If you got Richmond 2 years ago by the time another side got them they might be a spud not a power house.

Essendon and WC were both finalists and looked like they would be bad double ups but sides that got those got a free hit. Port was top 4. There isn't a perfect system, we have a side to compete with most top 8 sides. I've never said we are a premiership side but the * ups were our inability to get wins against Port and Essendon when both were down. You can't fixate your way out of incompetence. We just have to get good enough that we aren't vulnerable to playing other sides.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

The problem with that is Carlton are a perennial loser. Getting them twice was a win at the start of most years. Same with Freo. Richmond looked like they could be bottom 6 with their patchwork list. If you got Richmond 2 years ago by the time another side got them they might be a spud not a power house.

Essendon and WC were both finalists and looked like they would be bad double ups but sides that got those got a free hit. Port was top 4. There isn't a perfect system, we have a side to compete with most top 8 sides. I've never said we are a premiership side but the * ups were our inability to get wins against Port and Essendon when both were down. You can't fixate your way out of incompetence. We just have to get good enough that we aren't vulnerable to playing other sides.

A question is do you think other clubs would be excited or dreading that they double up against us.

 

[lewdogs]

The problem with that is Carlton are a perennial loser. Getting them twice was a win at the start of most years. Same with Freo. Richmond looked like they could be bottom 6 with their patchwork list. If you got Richmond 2 years ago by the time another side got them they might be a spud not a power house.

Essendon and WC were both finalists and looked like they would be bad double ups but sides that got those got a free hit. Port was top 4. There isn't a perfect system, we have a side to compete with most top 8 sides. I've never said we are a premiership side but the * ups were our inability to get wins against Port and Essendon when both were down. You can't fixate your way out of incompetence. We just have to get good enough that we aren't vulnerable to playing other sides.

That's beside the point, of course in an ideal world you're good enough to win every game but it just doesn't work like that. The fixture has a huge impact and for some reason we consistently have a really hard one. I think if you make it more random that would eventually even out and at the least you wouldn't feel hard done by because it's random.

If we make the finals from here it will be an amazing effort because we will have had to beat good teams much more consistently than other sides.

I mean an example is the 6-6-6 system where they choose double ups, we end up getting Sydney who finished 5th and were a bees dick from fourth but lost a final to finish seventh. Now if that was randomly generated to happen, fine, but it's not it's some bloke going "hmm that looks like a good matchup" the idea that that is fair is insane to me.

 

[gringo2011]

A question is do you think other clubs would be excited or dreading that they double up against us.

After 2020 they might have dreaded it, after last year they would have thought they'd lucked it. I think we are seen as a chicane, we don't offer too much resistance over the last decade so most would be thinking as long as they play well they would get us most years. We need to make ourselves hated foes again.

 

[gringo2011]

That's beside the point, of course in an ideal world you're good enough to win every game but it just doesn't work like that. The fixture has a huge impact and for some reason we consistently have a really hard one. I think if you make it more random that would eventually even out and at the least you wouldn't feel hard done by because it's random.

If we make the finals from here it will be an amazing effort because we will have had to beat good teams much more consistently than other sides.

I mean an example is the 6-6-6 system where they choose double ups, we end up getting Sydney who finished 5th and were a bees dick from fourth but lost a final to finish seventh. Now if that was randomly generated to happen, fine, but it's not it's some bloke going "hmm that looks like a good matchup" the idea that that is fair is insane to me.

What I'm saying is last years ladder had Port in 2nd place. This year early they were a walk over. You can't fixture for that. West Coast were above us. This year they were not even competitive and looked bottom 2. Suns third last now they would be a hard side to beat especially up there. Essendon, GWS and Dogs were top 8 and this year none were much chop. Richmond, Freo and Carlton finished below us and looked like they should be easy to beat middlers. Collingwood were second last. Unless you can accurately predict the ladder changes then it's impossible to factor who the fair double ups will be.

Last year our pool was WCE, GWS, Saints, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn as those middler sides. We were unlucky to get doubles against Brisbane and Geelong but if one had dropped like Port we would have thought it was great double up.

We are seen as a small club and get fitted in round others. We have to create our own destiny because no-one is going to give us a lucky break.

 

[John2010362340]

It's interesting going into the last month of the season with our double ups. Look at them compared to the teams around us. How many current top eight teams do we double up against compared to our rivals?

St Kilda = 4 (Fre, Gee, Syd, Bri)
WB = 3 (Mel, Gee, Syd)
Carlton = 2 (Coll, Fre)
Richmond= 1 (Car)

I've got a thread about this on the main board but this is why they need to rotate double ups over a four year period. That right there is the difference between finals and not finals and it shows if we do make the finals from here it will have been an incredible effort.

This is why there needs to be a Wild Card round. The AFL haven't seen this as an opportunity for more Revenue and allow the Top 6 to have advantage not just the top 4. Top 4 have a double chance top 6 have a week off. 7 play 10, 8 play 9.

Pretty sure this is the only major league in the world that have teams that don't play each other at least twice. The Fixture is incredibly compromised and having the Wild Card round would help eliminate the current issue that no one in the media rarely talks about.

 

[lewdogs]

What I'm saying is last years ladder had Port in 2nd place. This year early they were a walk over. You can't fixture for that. West Coast were above us. This year they were not even competitive and looked bottom 2. Suns third last now they would be a hard side to beat especially up there. Essendon, GWS and Dogs were top 8 and this year none were much chop. Richmond, Freo and Carlton finished below us and looked like they should be easy to beat middlers. Collingwood were second last. Unless you can accurately predict the ladder changes then it's impossible to factor who the fair double ups will be.

Last year our pool was WCE, GWS, Saints, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn as those middler sides. We were unlucky to get doubles against Brisbane and Geelong but if one had dropped like Port we would have thought it was great double up.

We are seen as a small club and get fitted in round others. We have to create our own destiny because no-one is going to give us a lucky break.

If you're ok with the bolded part that's you, but I would hope those in charge at the club would be pushing against that.

 

[George]

I'm still a big advocate for 17 rounds playing every team once and then the final 5 against teams in your pool of 6 on the ladder to determine final spots (1-6, 7-12, 13-18).

In an absolute ideal world it's only a 17 game season. It's the fairest way to do it. I love how the EPL does it, one home and one away game every year. Obviously 34 rounds in an AFL season is insanity so 17 is the next best.

Won't happen of course, a lot of this stuff is tied into the TV rights deal I believe.

 

[BrutThough]

It's interesting going into the last month of the season with our double ups. Look at them compared to the teams around us. How many current top eight teams do we double up against compared to our rivals?

St Kilda = 4 (Fre, Gee, Syd, Bri)
WB = 3 (Mel, Gee, Syd)
Carlton = 2 (Coll, Fre)
Richmond= 1 (Car)

I've got a thread about this on the main board but this is why they need to rotate double ups over a four year period. That right there is the difference between finals and not finals and it shows if we do make the finals from here it will have been an incredible effort.

Even more frustrating that Richmond also got to play West Coast when they fielded a WAFL side due to their COVID outs.

It is all just luck with the fixture, and we got unlucky this year, but it does mean when we look at the overall year and our performance, we need to take into account other factors beyond just finals or not. There is a realistic chance we win 2-3 more games than last year, beat more finalists and have an improved percentage while still missing finals.

 

[gringo2011]

If you're ok with the bolded part that's you, but I would hope those in charge at the club would be pushing against that.

They probably do but the AFL give zero *s about us because we've made ourselves irrelevant by not being competitive for so long.