Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage

Back One Out

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#51
Thanks for the facts to support your argument.
The home ground "advantage" only comes into play when the home team has the vast majority of the crowd on their side, or when they play a team who is unfamiliar with the ground.

Does Geelong have any of these hurdles to overcome by playing 7 or 8 games a year at the MCG ? No.

Pure garbage. Just lame excuse-making here on Big Footy. I noticed many of you Geelong cry-babies clinged onto that pitiful excuse for losing to Richmond by 10 goals during last year's finals. It wasn't the gap in quality of the teams' performances. It was Richmond's "home ground advantage"... :$
 
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Mningasimisonda

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#52
The home ground "advantage" only comes into play when the home team has the vast majority of the crowd on their side, or when they play a team who is unfamiliar with the ground.

Does Geelong have any of these hurdles to overcome by playing 7 or 8 games a year at the MCG ? No.

Pure garbage. Just lame excuse-making here on Big Footy. I noticed many of you Geelong cry-babies clinged onto that pitiful excuse for losing to Richmond by 10 goals during last year's finals. :$
Hawks and Richmond do play there twice as often as us.

I think the complaint was a playing a home final in front of mainly Richmond supporters at their ground. Their club was even encouraging them to buy Geelong allocated tickets.

It's not why we lost though.
 

Dr Tigris

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#53
Great work FS.

Shows that sometimes teams get a a surprise present from the AFL. Sometimes it's an old jock strap, sometimes its a chocolate cake.

Most teams are pretty much even. On that I'd expect the Hawks to do a little better than I'd reckon otherwise. And the Saints and poor old Suns to do worse. Although we all know the Suns will have a tough year due to the Games.
 

Back One Out

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#54
Hawks and Richmond do play there twice as often as us.

I think the complaint was a playing a home final in front of mainly Richmond supporters at their ground. Their club was even encouraging them to buy Geelong allocated tickets.

It's not why we lost though.
Mate... Just give it up...

The Cats don't suffer any away ground disadvantage from playing Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond or Collingwood at the MCG

Geelong has just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn

Your team plays at the ground more than any other club apart from those 4 'tenant clubs' listed above

Do you really think Geelong players are "disadvantaged" by playing 7/8 MCG games compared to 12/13 by those other 4 clubs?

Get your hand off it.
 

doppleganger

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#55
It's actually easier to figure out how much home ground advantage is worth than why it exists. To calculate its worth, you just throw statistics at a decade or two of data. Everyone who's ever done this, to the best of my knowledge, comes out with a figure for interstate home advantage of between 6-12 points.
Yes...but it is also accepted that it isn’t the same for all teams and venues.

But for vic teams, as a result of ground rationalisation, ‘home’ and ‘away’ no longer actually have any meaning most of the time.

teams like North playing ‘home’ games in Canberra against Sydney and Richmond home games in QLD against QLD teams.

But as to why it exists - whether it's ground familiarity, or the crowd, or the travel, or the umpires, or psychological, or a particular combination of the above, or something else altogether - no-one really knows. Those things are hard to measure objectively.
Matter of stats has a good piece where actually looks at combination of travel penalty and venue adjustment and can use historical stats to again crea

Point being in your modelling you attempt to accomodate this with some adjustments , but IMO they are inconsistently applied.

Hawthorn in Tassie, you upgrade what would have been a +1 for the Saints to a +5...but then why wouldn’t you downgrade Port which would be a +10 at the G to a lessor disadvantage considering both teams travel?

You knock a Suns home game in China down to a +1 but keep Melbourne home game in NT and Dogs in Ballarat as +10?

It just makes no sense to rank a Melbourne home game at the G as a 10, but then allocate a game in NT as a 10 too...and then on the other side also allocate Adelaide and Freo -10 for these games.

You can create a better model that does actually take into account the three components that people acknowledge (and you are even making some tweaks to) are factors - net travel, crowd advantage and venue familiarity.

The issue as you flag is how to apportion the specific elements to each.

But that will dramatically improve your fixture analysis over the initial attempt!!

Always appreciate your work though, long live the squiggle.
 

Matt Slade

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#56
Yes...but it is also accepted that it isn’t the same for all teams and venues.

But for vic teams, as a result of ground rationalisation, ‘home’ and ‘away’ no longer actually have any meaning most of the time.

teams like North playing ‘home’ games in Canberra against Sydney and Richmond home games in QLD against QLD teams.


Matter of stats has a good piece where actually looks at combination of travel penalty and venue adjustment and can use historical stats to again crea

Point being in your modelling you attempt to accomodate this with some adjustments , but IMO they are inconsistently applied.

Hawthorn in Tassie, you upgrade what would have been a +1 for the Saints to a +5...but then why wouldn’t you downgrade Port which would be a +10 at the G to a lessor disadvantage considering both teams travel?

You knock a Suns home game in China down to a +1 but keep Melbourne home game in NT and Dogs in Ballarat as +10?

It just makes no sense to rank a Melbourne home game at the G as a 10, but then allocate a game in NT as a 10 too...and then on the other side also allocate Adelaide and Freo -10 for these games.

You can create a better model that does actually take into account the three components that people acknowledge (and you are even making some tweaks to) are factors - net travel, crowd advantage and venue familiarity.

The issue as you flag is how to apportion the specific elements to each.

But that will dramatically improve your fixture analysis over the initial attempt!!

Always appreciate your work though, long live the squiggle.
He don't like Hawthorn, that's why. FS has never liked the Hawks. This is a clever ninja goblin.
 

manicmagpie

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#57
Probably pointed out already but just in case - if you're going to analyse Home Ground Advantage why ignore the actual 'Home Ground' in question? Just looking at my own team we're credited with a +1 game because we have a home game against the Bulldogs at their home ground, not ours. We also get a maximum +10 game for hosting Brisbane at a ground that isn't our home and that Brisbane play more often at, although at least in this case we have the travel advantage.

We don't benefit in the same way from any of our away games this year, although that isn't always the case.
 

Back One Out

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#58
I would also query the -1 disadvantage attributed to Hawthorn for their away games at Etihad Stadium

In 2017, the Hawks played just 2 games at Etihad
  • St Kilda played 14 games there (13 games in 2018)
  • North 13 games last year (11 games in 2018)
  • Bulldogs 11 games (13 games in 2018)
  • Carlton 6 games (8 games in 2018)
Hawk fans will be in the minority at all four of these away games. We'll have 14,000-15,000 up high in the nosebleed seats while those home clubs will have 25,000-30,000 of their members sitting close to the action on levels 1 and 2 and at front of level 3

So the Hawks score +10 for their 2 "home games" at the MCG vs Geelong, but only a total of -4 for these away games where our players have barely played and the crowd support will be clearly louder for the home teams.

Seems legit. :drunk:
 

STPer18

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#59
Mate... Just give it up...

The Cats don't suffer any away ground disadvantage from playing Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond or Collingwood at the MCG

Geelong has just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn
I would also query the -1 disadvantage attributed to Hawthorn for their away games at Etihad Stadium

Hawk fans will be in the minority at all four of these away games. We'll have 14,000-15,000 up high in the nosebleed seats while those home clubs will have 25,000-30,000 of their members sitting close to the action on levels 1 and 2 and at front of level 3

So the Hawks score +10 for their 2 "home games" at the MCG vs Geelong, but only a total of -4 for these away games where our players have barely played and the crowd support will be clearly louder for the home teams.

Seems legit. :drunk:
:think:
 

bh90210fan

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#61
I would also query the -1 disadvantage attributed to Hawthorn for their away games at Etihad Stadium

In 2017, the Hawks played just 2 games at Etihad
  • St Kilda played 14 games there (13 games in 2018)
  • North 13 games last year (11 games in 2018)
  • Bulldogs 11 games (13 games in 2018)
  • Carlton 6 games (8 games in 2018)
Hawk fans will be in the minority at all four of these away games. We'll have 14,000-15,000 up high in the nosebleed seats while those home clubs will have 25,000-30,000 of their members sitting close to the action on levels 1 and 2 and at front of level 3

So the Hawks score +10 for their 2 "home games" at the MCG vs Geelong, but only a total of -4 for these away games where our players have barely played and the crowd support will be clearly louder for the home teams.

Seems legit. :drunk:
Why don’t you put up your own analysis instead of just shitting on someone else’s effort you mungbean
 

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STPer18

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#62
Well, if you've got something to post, please feel free to use words and construct some sentences
Geelong supposedly get 'just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn', so you deem the 'crowd support' to be irrelevant, yet you claim the crowd support will clearly be in favour of teams such as North, Bulldogs and Saints when they host the Hawks at Etihad. Not true.
 

Back One Out

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#63
Why don’t you put up your own analysis instead of just shitting on someone else’s effort you mungbean
I am putting in my own analysis, you moron. Can't you read?

I gave my reasons and stats why I think there's no advantage to Hawthorn playing Geelong at the MCG
The OP's +10 advantage to the Hawks for these games is ludicrous.

I also compared this to Hawthorn's 4 away games at Etihad (a ground we're not overly familiar with and where our fans will be outnumbered by the vocal home membership) and suggested a -1 disadvantage for these games is totally out of whack within the +5 he gave the Hawks for our Geelong games at the MCG. Why not also score these games at +5 for the home side?

He can't have one and not the other.


Do you have anything at all to add to the discussion?
 

Back One Out

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#64
Geelong supposedly get 'just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn', so you deem the 'crowd support' to be irrelevant, yet you claim the crowd support will clearly be in favour of teams such as North, Bulldogs and Saints when they host the Hawks at Etihad. Not true.
Geelong played 7 games at the MCG last year compared to Hawthorn's 11
Geelong will play 7 again in 2018 compared to Hawthorn's 9

Your club is at no disadvantage in terms of familiarity with the ground and stadium

Compare this to Hawthorn's 2 games at Etihad Stadium last year to St Kilda 14 games, North 13 games, Bulldogs 11 games and Carlton 6 games. The Saints, Roos and Dogs play there virtually every week! The Hawks are far less familiar with the Etihad Stadium environs than their 2018 opponents.

Which leaves us with the crowd factor in determining what (if any) home ground advantage there is. The crowd at Hawthorn v Geelong games at the MCG is always split 50/50. Fact. I dare say, this year we'll probably see Geelong fans outnumber Hawk fans at these games. Laughable to suggest the Cats are somehow at a disadvantage by playing in front of Hawthorn's "home crowd". Complete bollocks.

Hawthorn doesn't get huge crowds along to Etihad Stadium. Fact. We will certainly be outnumbered by Carlton, St Kilda and Dogs members and reserve seat holders. The crowd for North v Haw will be 50/50. But like I already said, their fans will be seated closer to the action than the Hawk fans on level 3 and therefore, their voice will be louder to the players and umpires out on the field. So any influence the crowd has on games will be against us as the away team.

Personally, I don't believe the home ground factor is anywhere near as big as people say it is.

I'm just pointing out the fallacy of the OP's gradings
 

DanA

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#65
To me:

Geelong at home is the biggest ground advantage in the AFL because other teams play there maybe twice every three years, and Geelong has a uniquely shaped narrow ground which requires some adaptation.
 

bh90210fan

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#67
I am putting in my own analysis, you moron. Can't you read?

I gave my reasons and stats why I think there's no advantage to Hawthorn playing Geelong at the MCG
The OP's +10 advantage to the Hawks for these games is ludicrous.

I also compared this to Hawthorn's 4 away games at Etihad (a ground we're not overly familiar with and where our fans will be outnumbered by the vocal home membership) and suggested a -1 disadvantage for these games is totally out of whack within the +5 he gave the Hawks for our Geelong games at the MCG. Why not also score these games at +5 for the home side?

He can't have one and not the other.


Do you have anything at all to add to the discussion?
Well have a look at the fixture and give us a score for Hawthorn then.
 

Crankyhawk

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#68
Geelong supposedly get 'just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn', so you deem the 'crowd support' to be irrelevant, yet you claim the crowd support will clearly be in favour of teams such as North, Bulldogs and Saints when they host the Hawks at Etihad. Not true.
His argument about Hawks supporters being low at Etihad only really applies when we play Essendon as the away team (limited seats available to non Essendon members), the other games are pretty much walk up and sit.
 

Luv_our_club

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#69
It is a publicly advertised goal of the AFL to intentionally design an unequal fixture based upon the ladder of the previous year. The winner of the GF is intended to get a harder draw than the team that finished 13th, for example.

I would be interested in an assessment of how successful the AFL are in achieving this. For example, if Hawthorn have an easier draw than Richmond in 2018 then that would be a fulfillment of AFL policy; so, an assessment of fairness adjusted for the previous years ladder position.

Hawthorn finished in the bottom half of the top 12 in 2017. In 2018 we often play teams from the top 8, and this seems a highly relevant adjustment.
 
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JayJ20

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#70
Home ground advantage is often overlooked, underrated, or just plain cocked up in fixture analysis. Which is strange, because it's one of the most reliable predictors. We don't know whether a team's double-up opponents will become tougher or weaker in 2018, but we do know it's always better to play interstate opponents at home.

In theory, all teams should face a balanced fixture, and travel to face interstate opponents the same number of times as they host them at home. But in practice, this doesn't happen. Some teams enjoy home games against interstate opponents while staying local for their away games, and sometimes teams play "away" games at their home ground, with their opponents forced to travel to them.

This is home ground advantage fixture bias. The AFL does a pretty good job of managing it, but each year there are imbalances, with some sides coming out better than others, playing more games at favourable venues than unfavourable ones. While it's not the only factor in fixture difficulty, I think it's important enough to take a closer look. So in this post, I analyze every team's fixture and discuss why it's good, bad, or break-even.



Favourabity is the net total of points a team receives from home ground advantage during the season. Throughout 2018, Hawthorn will receive a net benefit of a little over five goals from home ground advantage, while the Suns will be penalized almost the same amount.

Favourability is calculated by classifying each game as one of three types:

Interstate advantage (+10): a team hosts an opponent who travels from interstate. This includes Geelong home games against Melbourne-based sides, given the Cats' superb record there.

Local advantage (+1): a team hosts an opponent located in the same city.

Limited advantage (+5): a few specific cases: a Melbourne-based team hosting Geelong at the MCG or Docklands, Hawthorn or North Melbourne hosting a Melbourne-based team in Tasmania, and Melbourne hosting a Melbourne-based team in Darwin.

These numbers are, I think, generally accepted in AFL analytics. That is, it's commonly agreed that interstate home advantage is worth somewhere in the realm of 10 points, while the advantage of playing a local team in your own city is almost negligible. If you want to adjust them a couple of points either way, though, I won't quibble.



HAWTHORN

The Hawks travel to face interstate opponents four times, the fewest in the league, while interstate teams have to travel to face them six times, a league-high two-game discrepancy in their favour. On top of that, they play Geelong at home, which is worth +5, and they also have an "away" game against the Cats at the same venue. This effectively gives the Hawks 12 home games for the year, eight of which are against non-Melbourne sides.

That's a remarkable number, only just short of the ten games that non-Victorian sides typically receive. In fact, it's the same number as Gold Coast, who have to travel seven more times than the Hawks do to face interstate opponents.

And that's not all: Hawthorn also take St. Kilda to Tasmania, which turns a +1 game into +5. The net result is a 32 point bonus over the course of the season.

+10 GAMES (x6)
R8: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)
R11: Port Adelaide @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R13: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R14: Gold Coast @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R17: Brisbane Lions @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
+5 GAMES (x3)
R2: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: St Kilda @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R21: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x3)
R1: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R4: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x6)
R3: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R5: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x4)
R9: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)

FREMANTLE

Fremantle are the lucky recipient of an "away" game against Gold Coast in Perth due to the unavailability of Carrara due to Commonwealth Games renovations. This transforms the game from -10 to +10, giving the Dockers 11 games with interstate advantage in their favour and only nine against.

+10 GAMES (x11)
R2: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R8: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R10: North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium (WA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R6: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-10 GAMES (x9)
R1: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R4: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
R7: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R11: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Melbourne @ Marrara Oval (NT)
R18: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

PORT ADELAIDE

Port Adelaide's otherwise balanced fixture is tilted in their favour by playing Gold Coast at a neutral venue (China) instead of at the Suns' home ground.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R3: Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R5: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R12: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R13: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R14: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R16: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R21: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R8: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
-1 GAMES (x2)
R9: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Arena at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
-10 GAMES (x9)
R2: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R4: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R15: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R22: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)

COLLINGWOOD

Collingwood's fixture is mostly balanced, with five interstate home games and five interstate away, but they benefit from playing Geelong at the MCG.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R2: Greater Western Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: West Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Port Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+5 GAMES (x1)
R8: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x5)
R5: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R14: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: North Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x6)
R1: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R12: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x5)
R4: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R20: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs' fixture is mostly balanced, with five interstate home games and five interstate away,
but they also have a game against Geelong at the Docklands, a venue in their favour.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R2: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)
R4: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: Gold Coast @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R8: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)
R19: Port Adelaide @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
+5 GAMES (x1)
R15: Geelong @ Docklands (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x5)
R3: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R11: Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R14: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x6)
R10: Collingwood @ Docklands (VIC)
R17: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R21: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R23: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x5)
R1: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
R5: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R9: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R13: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)

NORTH MELBOURNE

Like Hawthorn, North benefit from dragging a Melbourne-based team to Tasmania, turning what should be a +1 game against the Saints into +5. Otherwise their fixture is balanced.

+10 GAMES (x6)
R6: Port Adelaide @ Docklands (VIC)
R9: Greater Western Sydney @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
R11: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Gold Coast @ Docklands (VIC)
R17: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
R19: West Coast @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
+5 GAMES (x1)
R4: Carlton @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
+1 GAMES (x4)
R2: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)
R8: Richmond @ Docklands (VIC)
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x5)
R3: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R14: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R15: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x6)
R1: Gold Coast @ Cazaly's Stadium (QLD)
R7: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R10: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R20: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R22: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

RICHMOND

Richmond host interstate teams only four times, equal fewest in the league, while having to travel interstate themselves five times. But they more than make up for this by receiving two games against Geelong at the MCG, one of which is a nominal away game.

+10 GAMES (x4)
R4: Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+5 GAMES (x2)
R13: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x6)
R1: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Western Bulldogs @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x5)
R5: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R11: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x5)
R2: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R9: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R21: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)

GEELONG

Geelong play just nine games at their true home and 13 games away, which is an enormous discrepancy. But since their Kardinia games are all rated +10 while their MCG and Docklands games are only -5, they come out even on balance.

+10 GAMES (x9)
R4: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R6: Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R7: Greater Western Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R10: Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R12: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R18: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R19: Brisbane Lions @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
-5 GAMES (x8)
R1: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R2: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R20: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x5)
R3: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R11: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R16: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R17: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

SYDNEY

Sydney's fixture is neatly balanced with 10 interstate games away, 10 at home, and 2 local bridge battles or whatever they're called.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R2: Port Adelaide @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R5: Adelaide @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R7: North Melbourne @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R9: Fremantle @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R11: Carlton @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R13: West Coast @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R16: Geelong @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R18: Gold Coast @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R20: Collingwood @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R23: Hawthorn @ S.C.G. (NSW)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R3: Greater Western Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
-10 GAMES (x10)
R1: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R8: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R12: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R15: Richmond @ Docklands (VIC)
R17: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R19: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R21: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

The Giants have a balanced fixture that is typical for non-Victorian sides, with ten interstate games away, ten at home, and two local bridge busters.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Western Bulldogs @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
R4: Fremantle @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
R6: Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R8: West Coast @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R10: Essendon @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R12: Gold Coast @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R15: Hawthorn @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R17: Richmond @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: St Kilda @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R21: Adelaide @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R22: Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R3: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
-10 GAMES (x10)
R2: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R5: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R9: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
R11: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R14: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R16: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R18: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R20: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R23: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)

ADELAIDE

Adelaide's fixture is neatly balanced with ten interstate games away, ten at home, and two local showdowns.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R2: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R4: Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R6: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Carlton @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R9: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R11: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R15: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R19: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R22: North Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R20: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R8: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
-10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R3: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R10: Melbourne @ Traeger Park (NT)
R12: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R13: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)
R23: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)

BRISBANE LIONS

Brisbane's fixture is neatly balanced with 10 interstate games away, 10 at home, and 2 local Q-Clashes.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R2: Melbourne @ Gabba (QLD)
R7: Collingwood @ Gabba (QLD)
R9: Hawthorn @ Gabba (QLD)
R10: Sydney @ Gabba (QLD)
R12: Essendon @ Gabba (QLD)
R14: Greater Western Sydney @ Gabba (QLD)
R16: Carlton @ Gabba (QLD)
R18: Adelaide @ Gabba (QLD)
R20: North Melbourne @ Gabba (QLD)
R23: West Coast @ Gabba (QLD)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R5: Gold Coast @ Gabba (QLD)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R22: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
-10 GAMES (x10)
R1: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R3: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R4: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R8: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R11: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R15: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R19: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R21: Collingwood @ Docklands (VIC)

WEST COAST

West Coast's fixture is neatly balanced with 10 interstate games away, 10 at home, and 2 local derbies.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Geelong @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R7: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R9: Richmond @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R14: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R6: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-10 GAMES (x10)
R2: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R10: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)
R13: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R15: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)

CARLTON

Carlton's otherwise symmetrical fixture is tarnished by having to travel to Tasmania to play North Melbourne, turning what should be a -1 game into a -5 game.

+10 GAMES (x6)
R2: Gold Coast @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: West Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Fremantle @ Docklands (VIC)
R15: Port Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Greater Western Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
R23: Adelaide @ Docklands (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x5)
R3: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x4)
R1: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R14: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
-5 GAMES (x1)
R4: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)
-10 GAMES (x6)
R7: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R10: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R11: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R16: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R19: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R21: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

MELBOURNE

This analysis may be too optimistic on Melbourne, even though they're ranked fourth-last. That's because the Demons host Adelaide and Fremantle in the Northern Territory, and these are classified as +10 games in Melbourne's favour (hosting an interstate side at an alternative home ground), even though in practice, geography and history suggests it may not be deserved.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R10: Adelaide @ Traeger Park (NT)
R16: Fremantle @ Marrara Oval (NT)
R20: Gold Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+5 GAMES (x1)
R1: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x5)
R3: North Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R5: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R12: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: Western Bulldogs @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x5)
R4: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R9: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x6)
R2: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R8: Gold Coast @ Gabba (QLD)
R14: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R19: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)

ESSENDON

Essendon host interstate teams only four times but must travel away six times. They get a game against the Cats at the MCG, which helps, but not enough.

+10 GAMES (x4)
R1: Adelaide @ Docklands (VIC)
R4: Port Adelaide @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Fremantle @ Docklands (VIC)
R19: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
+5 GAMES (x1)
R9: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x6)
R6: Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x5)
R3: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
-10 GAMES (x6)
R2: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R10: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R12: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R14: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R23: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

ST KILDA

At least there's a plausible explanation for Gold Coast's terrible fixture: the unavailability of their home ground. What's behind St. Kilda's shafting, I can't say. Firstly, the Saints host interstate sides only four times while traveling six times, which is a heavy imbalance in itself. But whereas Essendon are compensated for the same issue with an MCG game against the Cats, there's no such balm for the Saints, who are bound for Kardinia Park. They also must travel to Tasmania to play Hawthorn, which turns a -1 game into -5.

+10 GAMES (x4)
R1: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)
R3: Adelaide @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Greater Western Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
R12: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)
+1 GAMES (x7)
R7: Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R9: Collingwood @ Docklands (VIC)
R17: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Richmond @ Docklands (VIC)
R20: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)
R23: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
-1 GAMES (x4)
R2: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R10: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
-5 GAMES (x1)
R6: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
-10 GAMES (x6)
R4: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R8: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R13: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R16: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R19: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)

GOLD COAST

The Suns immediately drop 20 points by playing a home game against Fremantle in Perth, which turns what should be a +10 game into -10. Then there's a home game against Port Adelaide in China, knocking down a +10 game to +1 (nominal home team in neutral venue). It leaves them with 11 games where interstate advantage will work against them and only eight when it will be in their favour.

+10 GAMES (x8)
R1: North Melbourne @ Cazaly's Stadium (QLD)
R8: Melbourne @ Gabba (QLD)
R11: Geelong @ Carrara (QLD)
R13: St Kilda @ Carrara (QLD)
R15: Collingwood @ Carrara (QLD)
R17: Essendon @ Carrara (QLD)
R19: Carlton @ Carrara (QLD)
R21: Richmond @ Carrara (QLD)
+1 GAMES (x2)
R9: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Arena at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
R22: Brisbane Lions @ Carrara (QLD)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R5: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
-10 GAMES (x11)
R2: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R3: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R6: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R12: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R14: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R16: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R20: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
Great analysis except one thing.

I think it's actually being too kind to Geelong. Why would our home game against Geelong at the MCG be considered +5 in our favour when the MCG is not our home ground? We both play a similar amount of games at the venue. There's no advantage for us.
+1 would be more appropriate. Geelong isn't that far from Melbourne.

Other than that, it's spot on
 

bh90210fan

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West Coast
#71
It is a publicly advertised goal of the AFL to intentionally design an unequal fixture based upon the ladder of the previous year. The winner of the GF is intended to get a harder draw than the team that finished 13th, for example.

I would be interested in an assessment of how successful the AFL are in achieving this. For example, if Hawthorn have an easier draw than Richmond in 2018 then that would be a fulfillment of AFL policy; so, an assessment of fairness adjusted for the previous years ladder position.

Hawthorn finished in the bottom half of the top 12 in 2017. In 2018 we often play teams from the top 8, and this seems a highly relevant adjustment.
That’s not really true though. In 2011 Hawthorn finished 3rd and in 2012 benefited from receiving one of the cushiest draws of recent times.
 

Luv_our_club

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Hawthorn
#73
That’s not really true though. In 2011 Hawthorn finished 3rd and in 2012 benefited from receiving one of the cushiest draws of recent times.
The ladder is divided into 3..... 1-6, 7-12, 13-18.

When you finish in the top 6, fairness dictates that you normally play two games (or return matches) against harder teams:

In 2011, Hawthorn finished 3rd.
In 2012, Hawthorn played:

Magpies x 2 = they finished second in 2011
Cats x 2 = they finished first in 2011
Power x 2 = they finished 16th in 2011
Swans x 2 = they finished 7th in 2011
Eagles x 2 = they finished 4th in 2011

I don't see how they got an easy draw.
 

bh90210fan

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#74
The ladder is divided into 3..... 1-6, 7-12, 13-18.

When you finish in the top 6, fairness dictates that you normally play two games (or return matches) against harder teams:

In 2011, Hawthorn finished 3rd.
In 2012, Hawthorn played:

Magpies x 2 = they finished second in 2011
Cats x 2 = they finished first in 2011
Power x 2 = they finished 16th in 2011
Swans x 2 = they finished 7th in 2011
Eagles x 2 = they finished 4th in 2011

I don't see how they got an easy draw.
You played 17 games on your home grounds and travelled interstate only 3 times for an away clash!

Hawthorn were clearly advantaged in 10 games that year while disadvantaged in only 5.

That’s a year after finishing 3rd on the ladder.
 

Luv_our_club

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#75
You played 17 games on your home grounds and travelled interstate only 3 times for an away clash!

Hawthorn were clearly advantaged in 10 games that year while disadvantaged in only 5.

That’s a year after finishing 3rd on the ladder.
Are you saying we had 10 home games? Generally you will need to explain your point in greater detail.

From my perspective, outlined above, a 3rd finishing team has not been given harder match-ups based upon ladder position.
 
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