Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage | Page 3 | BigFooty

Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Mar 2, 2018.

  1. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    The home ground "advantage" only comes into play when the home team has the vast majority of the crowd on their side, or when they play a team who is unfamiliar with the ground.

    Does Geelong have any of these hurdles to overcome by playing 7 or 8 games a year at the MCG ? No.

    Pure garbage. Just lame excuse-making here on Big Footy. I noticed many of you Geelong cry-babies clinged onto that pitiful excuse for losing to Richmond by 10 goals during last year's finals. It wasn't the gap in quality of the teams' performances. It was Richmond's "home ground advantage"... :$
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2018
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  2. Mningasimisonda

    Mningasimisonda Club Legend

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    Hawks and Richmond do play there twice as often as us.

    I think the complaint was a playing a home final in front of mainly Richmond supporters at their ground. Their club was even encouraging them to buy Geelong allocated tickets.

    It's not why we lost though.
     
  3. Dr Tigris

    Dr Tigris Premiership Player

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    Great work FS.

    Shows that sometimes teams get a a surprise present from the AFL. Sometimes it's an old jock strap, sometimes its a chocolate cake.

    Most teams are pretty much even. On that I'd expect the Hawks to do a little better than I'd reckon otherwise. And the Saints and poor old Suns to do worse. Although we all know the Suns will have a tough year due to the Games.
     
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  4. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    Mate... Just give it up...

    The Cats don't suffer any away ground disadvantage from playing Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond or Collingwood at the MCG

    Geelong has just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn

    Your team plays at the ground more than any other club apart from those 4 'tenant clubs' listed above

    Do you really think Geelong players are "disadvantaged" by playing 7/8 MCG games compared to 12/13 by those other 4 clubs?

    Get your hand off it.
     
  5. doppleganger

    doppleganger Brownlow Medallist

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    Yes...but it is also accepted that it isn’t the same for all teams and venues.

    But for vic teams, as a result of ground rationalisation, ‘home’ and ‘away’ no longer actually have any meaning most of the time.

    teams like North playing ‘home’ games in Canberra against Sydney and Richmond home games in QLD against QLD teams.

    Matter of stats has a good piece where actually looks at combination of travel penalty and venue adjustment and can use historical stats to again crea

    Point being in your modelling you attempt to accomodate this with some adjustments , but IMO they are inconsistently applied.

    Hawthorn in Tassie, you upgrade what would have been a +1 for the Saints to a +5...but then why wouldn’t you downgrade Port which would be a +10 at the G to a lessor disadvantage considering both teams travel?

    You knock a Suns home game in China down to a +1 but keep Melbourne home game in NT and Dogs in Ballarat as +10?

    It just makes no sense to rank a Melbourne home game at the G as a 10, but then allocate a game in NT as a 10 too...and then on the other side also allocate Adelaide and Freo -10 for these games.

    You can create a better model that does actually take into account the three components that people acknowledge (and you are even making some tweaks to) are factors - net travel, crowd advantage and venue familiarity.

    The issue as you flag is how to apportion the specific elements to each.

    But that will dramatically improve your fixture analysis over the initial attempt!!

    Always appreciate your work though, long live the squiggle.
     
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  6. Matt Slade

    Matt Slade Team Captain

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    He don't like Hawthorn, that's why. FS has never liked the Hawks. This is a clever ninja goblin.
     
  7. manicmagpie

    manicmagpie Premium Platinum

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    Probably pointed out already but just in case - if you're going to analyse Home Ground Advantage why ignore the actual 'Home Ground' in question? Just looking at my own team we're credited with a +1 game because we have a home game against the Bulldogs at their home ground, not ours. We also get a maximum +10 game for hosting Brisbane at a ground that isn't our home and that Brisbane play more often at, although at least in this case we have the travel advantage.

    We don't benefit in the same way from any of our away games this year, although that isn't always the case.
     
  8. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    I would also query the -1 disadvantage attributed to Hawthorn for their away games at Etihad Stadium

    In 2017, the Hawks played just 2 games at Etihad
    • St Kilda played 14 games there (13 games in 2018)
    • North 13 games last year (11 games in 2018)
    • Bulldogs 11 games (13 games in 2018)
    • Carlton 6 games (8 games in 2018)
    Hawk fans will be in the minority at all four of these away games. We'll have 14,000-15,000 up high in the nosebleed seats while those home clubs will have 25,000-30,000 of their members sitting close to the action on levels 1 and 2 and at front of level 3

    So the Hawks score +10 for their 2 "home games" at the MCG vs Geelong, but only a total of -4 for these away games where our players have barely played and the crowd support will be clearly louder for the home teams.

    Seems legit. :drunk:
     
  9. STPer18

    STPer18 Premiership Player

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    :think:
     
  10. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    Well, if you've got something to post, please feel free to use words and construct some sentences
     
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  11. bh90210fan

    bh90210fan Club Legend

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    Why don’t you put up your own analysis instead of just shitting on someone else’s effort you mungbean
     

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  12. STPer18

    STPer18 Premiership Player

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    Geelong supposedly get 'just as many fans at the MCG as Hawthorn', so you deem the 'crowd support' to be irrelevant, yet you claim the crowd support will clearly be in favour of teams such as North, Bulldogs and Saints when they host the Hawks at Etihad. Not true.
     
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  13. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    I am putting in my own analysis, you moron. Can't you read?

    I gave my reasons and stats why I think there's no advantage to Hawthorn playing Geelong at the MCG
    The OP's +10 advantage to the Hawks for these games is ludicrous.

    I also compared this to Hawthorn's 4 away games at Etihad (a ground we're not overly familiar with and where our fans will be outnumbered by the vocal home membership) and suggested a -1 disadvantage for these games is totally out of whack within the +5 he gave the Hawks for our Geelong games at the MCG. Why not also score these games at +5 for the home side?

    He can't have one and not the other.


    Do you have anything at all to add to the discussion?
     
  14. Back One Out

    Back One Out Brownlow Medallist

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    Geelong played 7 games at the MCG last year compared to Hawthorn's 11
    Geelong will play 7 again in 2018 compared to Hawthorn's 9

    Your club is at no disadvantage in terms of familiarity with the ground and stadium

    Compare this to Hawthorn's 2 games at Etihad Stadium last year to St Kilda 14 games, North 13 games, Bulldogs 11 games and Carlton 6 games. The Saints, Roos and Dogs play there virtually every week! The Hawks are far less familiar with the Etihad Stadium environs than their 2018 opponents.

    Which leaves us with the crowd factor in determining what (if any) home ground advantage there is. The crowd at Hawthorn v Geelong games at the MCG is always split 50/50. Fact. I dare say, this year we'll probably see Geelong fans outnumber Hawk fans at these games. Laughable to suggest the Cats are somehow at a disadvantage by playing in front of Hawthorn's "home crowd". Complete bollocks.

    Hawthorn doesn't get huge crowds along to Etihad Stadium. Fact. We will certainly be outnumbered by Carlton, St Kilda and Dogs members and reserve seat holders. The crowd for North v Haw will be 50/50. But like I already said, their fans will be seated closer to the action than the Hawk fans on level 3 and therefore, their voice will be louder to the players and umpires out on the field. So any influence the crowd has on games will be against us as the away team.

    Personally, I don't believe the home ground factor is anywhere near as big as people say it is.

    I'm just pointing out the fallacy of the OP's gradings
     
  15. DanA

    DanA Norm Smith Medallist

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    To me:

    Geelong at home is the biggest ground advantage in the AFL because other teams play there maybe twice every three years, and Geelong has a uniquely shaped narrow ground which requires some adaptation.
     
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  16. the harry

    the harry Brownlow Medallist

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    Final Siren very good stuff. The explanations of "why" are great too.
     
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  17. bh90210fan

    bh90210fan Club Legend

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    Well have a look at the fixture and give us a score for Hawthorn then.
     
  18. Crankyhawk

    Crankyhawk Brownlow Medallist

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    His argument about Hawks supporters being low at Etihad only really applies when we play Essendon as the away team (limited seats available to non Essendon members), the other games are pretty much walk up and sit.
     
  19. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    It is a publicly advertised goal of the AFL to intentionally design an unequal fixture based upon the ladder of the previous year. The winner of the GF is intended to get a harder draw than the team that finished 13th, for example.

    I would be interested in an assessment of how successful the AFL are in achieving this. For example, if Hawthorn have an easier draw than Richmond in 2018 then that would be a fulfillment of AFL policy; so, an assessment of fairness adjusted for the previous years ladder position.

    Hawthorn finished in the bottom half of the top 12 in 2017. In 2018 we often play teams from the top 8, and this seems a highly relevant adjustment.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2018
  20. JayJ20

    JayJ20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Great analysis except one thing.

    I think it's actually being too kind to Geelong. Why would our home game against Geelong at the MCG be considered +5 in our favour when the MCG is not our home ground? We both play a similar amount of games at the venue. There's no advantage for us.
    +1 would be more appropriate. Geelong isn't that far from Melbourne.

    Other than that, it's spot on
     
  21. bh90210fan

    bh90210fan Club Legend

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    That’s not really true though. In 2011 Hawthorn finished 3rd and in 2012 benefited from receiving one of the cushiest draws of recent times.
     
  22. tigertigertiger

    tigertigertiger Club Legend

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    Would Geelong supporters back a move fir the club to play every home game at the MCG ? Kardinia Park to be for training only!
     
  23. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    The ladder is divided into 3..... 1-6, 7-12, 13-18.

    When you finish in the top 6, fairness dictates that you normally play two games (or return matches) against harder teams:

    In 2011, Hawthorn finished 3rd.
    In 2012, Hawthorn played:

    Magpies x 2 = they finished second in 2011
    Cats x 2 = they finished first in 2011
    Power x 2 = they finished 16th in 2011
    Swans x 2 = they finished 7th in 2011
    Eagles x 2 = they finished 4th in 2011

    I don't see how they got an easy draw.
     
  24. bh90210fan

    bh90210fan Club Legend

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    You played 17 games on your home grounds and travelled interstate only 3 times for an away clash!

    Hawthorn were clearly advantaged in 10 games that year while disadvantaged in only 5.

    That’s a year after finishing 3rd on the ladder.
     
  25. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    Are you saying we had 10 home games? Generally you will need to explain your point in greater detail.

    From my perspective, outlined above, a 3rd finishing team has not been given harder match-ups based upon ladder position.
     
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