Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage

[doppleganger]

Hawthorn recalculated as +16

+10 GAMES (x2)
R8: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

The only games where they play a non-vic team at their actual home ground

+9 GAMES (x1)
R10: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)
Clearly a large advantage, but not the full advantage if grounds are meant to actually be important.

+5 GAMES (x4) Tassie

R11: Port Adelaide @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R14: Gold Coast @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R17: Brisbane Lions @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R6: St Kilda @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

Hawks have to travel just like their opposition, but ground familiarity and crowd advantage gives them a clear advantage...not as much as playing at the G when they haven’t had to travel though.

+5 GAMES (X2)
R2: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)

Same state, but city advantage goes to the Hawks...I think this is too large but what the hell.

0 GAMES (x3) MCG tenant derbies
R1: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R4: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)

No ground advantage here

0 games (x3)
R20: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)

Ess n Carl split their games across both Melbourne venues, they don’t have advantage at either venue

-1 GAMES (x3) Etihad tenant at Etihad

R5: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)

Hawks slightly disadvantaged here in terms of venue

-10 GAMES (x4)
R9: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)

Hawks new number is +16, for mine a better reflection of the advantage they get.

 

[theyellowsash]

Great read. Geelong just the 9 home games and 13 away is a bit of a farce.

nice whinge. geelong have more '+10' games than any other victorian team

 

[STPer18]

nice whinge. geelong have more '+10' games than any other victorian team

You'd hope so considering we play 13 games away from home.

 

[theyellowsash]

You'd hope so considering we play 13 games away from home.

and every other vic team using this system plays more than 13 games 'away from home'

 

[Engimal v3]

Not sure about North/Hawks getting such an advantage from Tassie.

 

[STPer18]

and every other vic team using this system plays more than 13 games 'away from home'

Richmond play 14 at the MCG, 8 away from the MCG.

 

[theyellowsash]

Richmond play 14 at the MCG, 8 away from the MCG.

and how many of them are against teams which we get a genuine home advantage (ie the +10 of this metric)

 

[roacheee]

i reckon pies n dons at mcg is plus 1 both games, leaving us on +5 for the year and equal 4th easiest draw.

yellow and back to back

 

[doppleganger]

Need to actually come up with the components of how you are getting to the advantage

Travel Disadvantage
outside your state -2, travel inside state a -1, play at home is 0

Crowd
Home crowd is +2, neutral crowd is 0, away crowd is -2

Two Victorian teams facing off at G or Etihad is neutral, unlike SA showdown where home team gets the big crowd advantage.

Ground
If you play at the ground 9 times or more you get a +1, between 8 and 3 is a 0, 2 or 1 appearances at a ground and you get a -1

So that means the advantage ranges from +8 through to 0.


Some examples

Geelong v Carlton at Cattery
Geelong get 0 for travel,+2 crowd, +1 for ground = +3

Carlton get -1 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for ground = -4

Advantage to Geelong +7

Geelong v Carlton at Etihad

Geelong -1 for travel, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -2
Carlton get 0 for travel, 0 for crowd, +1 for ground = +1

Advantage to Carlton of +3

Hawks v Port in Tassie

Hawks -2 for travel, +2 for crowd, 0 for ground = 0
Port -2 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for ground = -5

Advantage to Hawks of +5


Hawks v Eagles at Etihad

Hawks = 0 for travel, +2 for crowd, 0 for ground = + 2
Eagles = -2 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for crowd = - 5

Advantage Hawks of +7

Adelaide v Collingwood at AO
Adelaide = 0 for travel, +2 for crowd, +1 for ground = +3
Coll = -2 for travel, -2 for ground, -1 for ground = -5

Advantage to Crows of +8

Dees v Adelaide in NT
Dees = travel -2, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -3
Adelaide travel -2, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -3

No advantage to either team

Adelaide (home) v Port in showdown

Adelaide trav 0, crowd +2, ground +1 = 3
Port trav 0, crowd -2, ground +1 = -1

Advantage Adelaide of +4

Melbourne v collingwood

Melbourne trav 0, crowd 0, ground +1
Pies trav 0, crowd 0, ground +1

No advantage.

 

[falcons2]

I like the effort and analysis but it seems to be looking for a formula to support a pre-conceived opinion. The weighting of Geelong games is way overs. They play 7 games at the MCG in 2018. MCG is no threat. The weighting of travelling is also way overs. Non Victorian teams won 57% of away games (all away even if in own state) in 2017 making it more likely to win away than lose. To give a weight 10 x that of non travelling is not supported by game results.
I am confident if Jeff Kennett called over the Punt Rd fence, "Hey Benny let's swap our super favourable draw with you and I'll throw in $1million." Benny Gale reply would be something like, "#*ss off Jeff, we're not giving up our 14MCG, 3 Etihad and 5 travels. And you ain't got the money to give we'll be making out of this FIXture."

 

[theyellowsash]

I like the effort and analysis but it seems to be looking for a formula to support a pre-conceived opinion. The weighting of Geelong games is way overs. They play 7 games at the MCG in 2018. MCG is no threat. The weighting of travelling is also way overs. Non Victorian teams won 57% of away games (all away even if in own state) in 2017 making it more likely to win away than lose. To give a weight 10 x that of non travelling is not supported by game results.
I am confident if Jeff Kennett called over the Punt Rd fence, "Hey Benny let's swap our super favourable draw with you and I'll throw in $1million." Benny Gale reply would be something like, "#*ss off Jeff, we're not giving up our 14MCG, 3 Etihad and 5 travels. And you ain't got the money to give we'll be making out of this FIXture."

I'm not sure why you think gale would reject being paid to have an easier fixture

 

[CrowsFlag2018]

Totally wrong. Look at home ground advantages over decades against interstate teams. When you have such an enduring statistic over that kind of period you cannot dismiss its significance or put it down to events 'on the day'. Every single team since their inception wins a higher % of games at home than they do away. You can't say that's a myth.

Stats taken from:
https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/overall_wl.html#1

View attachment 465238

Sorry im just repeating what people said about MCG grand finals.

 

[theyellowsash]

Sorry im just repeating what people said about MCG grand finals.

Where's the follow up quote and agreement/backslapping of yourself?

 

[doppleganger]

Sorry im just repeating what people said about MCG grand finals.

If try and use components of what make up home ground advantage - travel, crowd and ground familiarity.

Would rate GF as below.

Richmond v Adelaide GF

Rich - travel 0, crowd 0, ground +1 = +1

Adelaide - travel-2, crowd 0, ground 0 = -2

Advantage to Richmond of +3

 

[falcons2]

I'm not sure why you think gale would reject being paid to have an easier fixture

Because the fixture Richmond have will rake in truck loads of $$$.
Also the 'easier fixture' concept has so many variables and the one presented here only looks at one.

I'll give an example. Hawthorn play Essendon on Aug 4 at the MCG. Hawthorn home game. Hawthorn have not played at the MCG since June 16. Six games in between four of which are interstate (2 by choice). In the same period Essendon play 2 interstate games. The week prior Essendon play Sydney on the Friday Night at Etihad giving them an eight day break and Hawthorn play Fremantle in Perth on the Sunday giving them a six day break and travel. It is Hawthorns 8th MCG game and Essendons 7th for the year. Does Hawthorn have a home ground advantage? Maybe its still yes but do the other factors offset and even create an advantage the other way?
One more - Round 3. Hawthorn Richmond. MCG Richmond home game. Its 3 in a row at the MCG for the Hawks but they come into the game off a six day break. Richmond are returning from Adelaide for their 2nd MCG game but with a 10 day break. Richmond home ground advantage. What about the offsets, do they swing it Hawthorns way or increase the Richmond advantage?

In summary Home ground against travellers has some advantage but after offsets these advantages could be extended, diminished or reversed.

 

[Final Siren]

Need to actually come up with the components of how you are getting to the advantage

Travel Disadvantage
outside your state -2, travel inside state a -1, play at home is 0

Crowd
Home crowd is +2, neutral crowd is 0, away crowd is -2

Two Victorian teams facing off at G or Etihad is neutral, unlike SA showdown where home team gets the big crowd advantage.

Ground
If you play at the ground 9 times or more you get a +1, between 8 and 3 is a 0, 2 or 1 appearances at a ground and you get a -1

So that means the advantage ranges from +8 through to 0.


Some examples

Geelong v Carlton at Cattery
Geelong get 0 for travel,+2 crowd, +1 for ground = +3

Carlton get -1 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for ground = -4

Advantage to Geelong +7

Geelong v Carlton at Etihad

Geelong -1 for travel, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -2
Carlton get 0 for travel, 0 for crowd, +1 for ground = +1

Advantage to Carlton of +3

Hawks v Port in Tassie

Hawks -2 for travel, +2 for crowd, 0 for ground = 0
Port -2 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for ground = -5

Advantage to Hawks of +5


Hawks v Eagles at Etihad

Hawks = 0 for travel, +2 for crowd, 0 for ground = + 2
Eagles = -2 for travel, -2 for crowd, -1 for crowd = - 5

Advantage Hawks of +7

Adelaide v Collingwood at AO
Adelaide = 0 for travel, +2 for crowd, +1 for ground = +3
Coll = -2 for travel, -2 for ground, -1 for ground = -5

Advantage to Crows of +8

Dees v Adelaide in NT
Dees = travel -2, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -3
Adelaide travel -2, 0 for crowd, -1 for ground = -3

No advantage to either team

Adelaide (home) v Port in showdown

Adelaide trav 0, crowd +2, ground +1 = 3
Port trav 0, crowd -2, ground +1 = -1

Advantage Adelaide of +4

Melbourne v collingwood

Melbourne trav 0, crowd 0, ground +1
Pies trav 0, crowd 0, ground +1

No advantage.

It's actually easier to figure out how much home ground advantage is worth than why it exists. To calculate its worth, you just throw statistics at a decade or two of data. Everyone who's ever done this, to the best of my knowledge, comes out with a figure for interstate home advantage of between 6-12 points.

But as to why it exists - whether it's ground familiarity, or the crowd, or the travel, or the umpires, or psychological, or a particular combination of the above, or something else altogether - no-one really knows. Those things are hard to measure objectively.

 

[Final Siren]

Example of the above:

"Some mathematicians have worked out exactly how much a home advantage means in terms of scores, very useful for calculations in football tipping. Professor Steve Clarke from Swinburne University in Melbourne estimates that home advantage can account for 10 points per match in Australian Rules.

...

Why do home teams have such an advantage? Well, to ask the question another way, what do away teams have going against them? There are several issues that away teams have to deal with that home teams don't. Firstly, they must often travel great distances, and this throws out the body clock. At the same time, players must deal with new cultures and foods, and may also suffer from not having their loved ones around to provide support. Secondly, they often face extremely hostile crowds. Thirdly, they are often playing in a venue which they are not familiar with.

Which of these factors most affects home advantage is a matter of some debate."

 

[Back One Out]

The Hawks play Geelong at home, which is worth +5, and they also have an "away" game against the Cats at the same venue. This effectively gives the Hawks 12 home games for the year.

Yeah, that home ground advantage Hawthorn gets from playing Geelong twice at the MCG every year is unbelievable.

Geelong are clearly disadvantaged by playing at the MCG as their 59-36 W/L record (62%) since the year 2000 would attest.
This includes a 30-19 record vs Collingwood and Hawthorn over that time (both finals regulars)

The AFL must do something about this inequity.


Good analysis, mate.

You should increase the +5 factor to +11... Or maybe +15

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

I knew the AFL would finally give us a leg up. Seriously, I admire the time taken to do this, but it is not one bit convincing.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Not sure about North/Hawks getting such an advantage from Tassie.

Prior to us beating them down there last year they had won 19 in a row there, so it does seem like a pretty damn big home ground advantage to me.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Yeah, that home ground advantage Hawthorn gets from playing Geelong twice at the MCG every year is unbelievable.

Geelong are clearly disadvantaged by playing at the MCG as their 59-36 W/L record (62%) since the year 2000 would attest.

The AFL must do something about this inequity.


Good analysis, mate.

You should increase the +5 factor to +11

How does our overall win-loss record look though?

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

Prior to us beating them down there last year they had won 19 in a row there, so it does seem like a pretty damn big home ground advantage to me.

You are so right. We have usually played top 8 sides down their just to make sure of the wins through this advantage

 

[Back One Out]

How does our overall win-loss record look though?

You mean all those cupcake games at Kardinia Park vs interstate teams and Victorian strugglers?
Awsum. Just an incredible winning record down at Kardinia Park against the easybeats which doesn't inflate your overall W/L totals in the slightest

 

[Mningasimisonda]

You mean all those cupcake games at Kardinia Park vs interstate teams and Victorian strugglers?

Awsum

Just an incredible winning record down at Kardinia Park

Thanks for the facts to support your argument.

 

[Engimal v3]

Prior to us beating them down there last year they had won 19 in a row there, so it does seem like a pretty damn big home ground advantage to me.

Yeah, but Hawthorn also won 3 flags in a row. I think it probably had more to do with them being very, very good.

I don't think it should be weighted the same as the MCG, for them. Maybe some middle ground.