Fixture, Form and Ladder 2017

[GarnerSmash]

6 games in and the comp is starting to settle into the season now, with teams starting to settle into their relative positions on the ladder. We are 1-5 however I think the consensus is that we have played better footy than our record suggests. As such I though it a good time to do a bit of a check on form, actual form based upon win/loss records of all teams opponents. Below is ladder based upon the average position of each teams opponent, and it makes for interesting reading.


Western Flogs: 12.3
WCE: 12.3
Geelong: 12
Essendon: 11.3
Gold Coast: 10.8
St. Kilda: 10.3
Port: 10.3
GWS: 10
Carlton: 9.7
Richmond: 9.5
Adelaide: 8.5
Collingwood: 8.5
Melbourne: 8.5
Brisbane: 8
Sydney: 7.7
Fremantle: 7.3
Hawthorn: 7.2
North: 7


Based upon results to date we have had the hardest draw this seasind taking in to account the relative position as of round 6 of our current opponents, but we have also lost to the 3 teams with the easiest draws to date.

So what does this mean? Who is actually doing well and who is playing poorly?

If you allocate 3 points for a win and 1 for a loss, then factor in the average position of opponents played the ladder looks like this:


Adelaide: 0.47
Richmond: 0.59
Fremantle: 0.61
GWS: 0.62
Melbourne: 0.71
Port: 0.74
Geelong: 0.75
Collingwood: 0.85
St. Kilda: 0.86
Western Flogs: 0.88
WCE: 0.88
North: 0.88
Hawthorn: 0.9
Essendon: 0.94
Sydney: 0.96
Carlton: 0.97
Brisbane: 1
Gold Coast: 1.08

Adelaide still clearly come out in front. Richmond are to be given credit for beating all in front of then bar Adelaide (with a middling draw). Freo are a surprise but they have done well despite the third toughest draw to date and GWS make up the top 4.

Then come Melbourne, Port and Geelong, followed by a glut of teams, including us, WBD and WCE funnily enough. Sure, Dogs are a better side than this indicates but they ain't really playing that way. Nor are WCE.

The bottom 5 make for pretty poor reading, especially the Lions and Suns.

I will keep a track of this througout the season and will update after say Round 10 as we will have a better data set to work with.

No real conclusions to draw but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Kimbo]

6 games in and the comp is starting to settle into the season now, with teams starting to settle into their relative positions on the ladder. We are 1-5 however I think the consensus is that we have played better footy than our record suggests. As such I though it a good time to do a bit of a check on form, actual form based upon win/loss records of all teams opponents. Below is ladder based upon the average position of each teams opponent, and it makes for interesting reading.


Western Flogs: 12.3
WCE: 12.3
Geelong: 12
Essendon: 11.3
Gold Coast: 10.8
St. Kilda: 10.3
Port: 10.3
GWS: 10
Carlton: 9.7
Richmond: 9.5
Adelaide: 8.5
Collingwood: 8.5
Melbourne: 8.5
Brisbane: 8
Sydney: 7.7
Fremantle: 7.3
Hawthorn: 7.2
North: 7

Based upon results to date we have had the hardest draw this seasind taking in to account the relative position as of round 6 of our current opponents, but we have also lost to the 3 teams with the easiest draws to date.

So what does this mean? Who is actually doing well and who is playing poorly?

No real conclusions to draw but interesting nonetheless.

Yes, but if we'd won those three close games, then the rating of opponents shifts dramatically with us being ranked a 'hard opponent' instead of an easier one etc. Would percentage be a better way to rate opponents than W-L?

 

[GarnerSmash]

Yes, but if we'd won those three close games, then the rating of opponents shifts dramatically with us being ranked a 'hard opponent' instead of an easier one etc. Would percentage be a better way to rate opponents than W-L?

I was thinking that percentage should be a factor, but now don't have the time to think about how to factor that in and keep it looking realistic. Maybe something like and allocation of 1/-1 point for every 10 percentage points above/below 100. Ultimately any extrapolation past the initial average ranking of a teams draw is open to bias as the choice as to what factors are inputted aren't clear. But meh, a bit of fun.

 

[Kimbo]

...a bit of fun.

It's footy. That's what it's all about. Even BF, for the most part.

 

[Dodecahedron]

I hope we push Adelaide.
After that game there is no reason why we can't make a long winning streak and sneak up on the 8.

 

[Mcarcherey]

6 games in and the comp is starting to settle into the season now, with teams starting to settle into their relative positions on the ladder. We are 1-5 however I think the consensus is that we have played better footy than our record suggests. As such I though it a good time to do a bit of a check on form, actual form based upon win/loss records of all teams opponents. Below is ladder based upon the average position of each teams opponent, and it makes for interesting reading.


Western Flogs: 12.3
WCE: 12.3
Geelong: 12
Essendon: 11.3
Gold Coast: 10.8
St. Kilda: 10.3
Port: 10.3
GWS: 10
Carlton: 9.7
Richmond: 9.5
Adelaide: 8.5
Collingwood: 8.5
Melbourne: 8.5
Brisbane: 8
Sydney: 7.7
Fremantle: 7.3
Hawthorn: 7.2
North: 7


Based upon results to date we have had the hardest draw this seasind taking in to account the relative position as of round 6 of our current opponents, but we have also lost to the 3 teams with the easiest draws to date.

So what does this mean? Who is actually doing well and who is playing poorly?

If you allocate 3 points for a win and 1 for a loss, then factor in the average position of opponents played the ladder looks like this:


Adelaide: 0.47
Richmond: 0.59
Fremantle: 0.61
GWS: 0.62
Melbourne: 0.71
Port: 0.74
Geelong: 0.75
Collingwood: 0.85
St. Kilda: 0.86
Western Flogs: 0.88
WCE: 0.88
North: 0.88
Hawthorn: 0.9
Essendon: 0.94
Sydney: 0.96
Carlton: 0.97
Brisbane: 1
Gold Coast: 1.08

Adelaide still clearly come out in front. Richmond are to be given credit for beating all in front of then bar Adelaide (with a middling draw). Freo are a surprise but they have done well despite the third toughest draw to date and GWS make up the top 4.

Then come Melbourne, Port and Geelong, followed by a glut of teams, including us, WBD and WCE funnily enough. Sure, Dogs are a better side than this indicates but they ain't really playing that way. Nor are WCE.

The bottom 5 make for pretty poor reading, especially the Lions and Suns.

I will keep a track of this througout the season and will update after say Round 10 as we will have a better data set to work with.

No real conclusions to draw but interesting nonetheless.

Great analytical post!

Can i ask, did you come up with the avg. ladder position played divided by the 3/1 point for W/L yourself?

 

[RobZombie]

For this sort of opponent quality assessment, it's always and forever The Squiggle (I'd actually like to see an Expected Scores Squiggle but would have to do it myself and cbf). There has only been one week so far this year where we have underperformed Squiggle's prediction on both attack and defence, and that's the GWS game.

R1 vs WCE Attack Defence
R2 vs Gee Attack Defence
R3 vs GWS Attack Defence
R4 vs WB Attack Defence
R5 vs Freo Attack Defence
R6 vs GCS Attack Defence

On the whole we've improved on attack by about the same amount as defence has regressed, but we haven't really moved far from last year's standard. We have collapsed in junk time twice vs WCE and GWS, which doesn't help. GCS also only really got over their projected score in junk time.

Unsurprisingly, Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Adelaide are the big movers. GC have also lifted their attacking game a fair bit. Hawthorn is now a worse squiggler than us and Sydney are chasing us down. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, Richmond aren't a big mover overall. Squiggle says they've had a really easy early draw and then reality check.

 

[Rooboys Rool]

I hope we push Adelaide.
After that game there is no reason why we can't make a long winning streak and sneak up on the 8.

Absolutely. After Adelaide we have 9 games against teams currently out of the 8. Of the 5 games against teams currently in the 8, 2 are against Melbourne who are 8th and 1 is against Richmond, so very winnable. Leave Braves and Port as the only truly tough games for the rest of the year.

Just hope this doesn't lift us to ~9th with no finals or high draft picks.