FOOTBALL TRUTH'S

[chev1977]

The term due for a loss is right

its the same as a person who speeds in a car and tailgates you (HE/SHE IS DUE FOR AN ACCIDENT) almost 99.999999999999999% ACCURATE

end of story

please dan24 you make me laugh !!!!

 

[Drakey]

Chev1977

The the last time I picked against Essendon (v Melbourne) because they were "due for a loss" it cost me $50 in the footy pools.

I don't believe in "due for a loss" anymore.

They are "one game closer to their next loss". Thats because they will loose one sooner or later. I think it will be before the finals because I reckon Sheedy will flog them on the track for a while, to ensure their aerobic fitness during the finals.

 

[Dan26]

Chev1977

Your lack of common-sense is cause for genuine concern,

Obviously, if the Essendon Football Club exists for another 100 years, they will lose at some point. OBVIOUSLY.

But every match is independent of every other match.

When you run out on the ground, you have the same chance of winning as you do any other week (taking into account the talent of the opposition)

David Parkin believes winning streaks are NOT that difficult to maintain. Once you start winning, your confidence grows, and it becomes harder and harder for teams to knock you off.

Essendon and Carlton are proving that.

Sure the Bombers may lose a gmae, but that's got nothing to do with the fact the may have won 18 or 19 in a row beforehand. If the Dons lose to Port in Round 16, after 15 wins in a row, they would have lost anyway, even if they had won 3 in a row going into that match.

There is no law stating you have to drop a match. Well, not that I've heard anyway.

I remember in 1995, people were saying Carlton were due for a loss after they'd won about 8 in a row. Those same people were eating humble pie after the Blues won their 16th win in a row and they won the Grand Final.

Due for a los ? Yeah right ! The Blues blew that theory out the window, didn't they.

 

[Dan26]

It's like tossing a coin.

It doesn't matter if it has come up 10 heads in a row, when you toss the coin up in the air, there is still a 50-50 chance it wil be either heads of tails.

Obviously, if you kept on doing this hundreds of times, it would come up tails, but the "due" theory is a complete farce.

it's simple matahematics Chev1977. Did you do that at school ? Do they teach that in Adelaide ?

 

[chev1977]

Passed English and Mathematics !!!


check your spelling son !!! as I said you make me laugh I will always be able to shoot you down in flames lol

how did you spell it matathmatics LOL HAHAHAH

 

[curious]

Dan24 typed in his oh so self superior fashion:
1. It's like tossing a coin.

2. It doesn't matter if it has come up 10 heads in a row, when you toss the coin up in the air, there is still a 50-50 chance it wil be either heads of tails.

3. Obviously, if you kept on doing this hundreds of times, it would come up tails, but the "due" theory is a complete farce.

Lets assume for a moment your opening premise is correct and footy games ARE like tossing a coin. In that case, your second statement is an adequate synopsis of the gamblers fallacy. In a purely chance event (such as a coin toss) the past history has nothing to do with the probability of outcomes for the current event.

This being so your third statement is wrong, that too is gamblers fallacy. It contradicts the first two.

The gamblers fallacy is very common and it is bassicaly a belief that a number of consecutive similar outcomes somehow imply the opposite outcome is now due- completely false IF AND ONLY IF all the events are independent. Coin tosses are. Football games may not be. Example- injuries sustained in one game clearly can affect the outcome of the next.

So you haven't shown evidence to support your opening assumption and you have drawn drawn an incorrect final conclusion.

Yes we do learn mathematics in Adelaide and we are also taught how to spell the word.

Stick that lot up your jumper.

 

[jod23]

All this Mathematics and heads and tails talk....it wont matter come monday cause the bombers will have lost

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[servo]

I think we've been here before guys.

I will say again, the 'due for a' business is crap.

We all 'agree' the Bombers are due for a loss. We all agree the Saints are due for a win. So if they played each other tomorrow we would all pick the Saints wouldn't we? Of course not.

Get back to the footy and stop crapping on.

 

[Dan26]

Curious,

You are a fair dinkum toss-bag.

What do you do analyse every word I say, or something ? What a loser.

Obviously if a coin is thrown, say, a hundred times, there is the PROBABILITY it could come up heads every time, but common-sense and percentages say that it is EXTREMLY unlikely.

Why you would spend so much time arguing that is beyond me. I just wanted to get a point across. Deep down, you knew this, so why waste all your time ?

The basis of it all, ws that every match is independent, but with the sheer huge number of matches year after year after year, even if a team has a 90% chance of winning every given match, the probabilty of that 90% chance ALWAYS coming up, is pretty low.

Anything's possible of course. Theoretically, it's possible to win every game for the next 100 years, but the probability would be, like 0.000000000001 %, or something.

 

[Dan26]

Oh, and I'm not handing in these posts to be marked. I don't want to correct them all the time, so if i spell a word wrong, live with it.

And curious, obviously I know that footy matches are not EXACTLY like tossing a coin. There are obviously variables. But it still doesn't mean a team has to lose simply because they ae "due".

Take note chev1977

 

[chev1977]

RE: Dan24

All I can say are my opinions ! You seem to think your correct 110 % of the time ?

Got news for you YOUR WRONG !


oh and when was the last time you saw a team go undeafeated in a season ? um never (at least in our generation !)


I am not right all the time either but regardless what you think I care deeply for this game and I post relevant questions 95% of the time the other 5% are for fun and to stir you Vics up any blind person could see that !!!


take note Dan24