Footy Analysis - Doing the form.

[rideclutch]

Heading into Round 4, I'd like to get peoples' opinions on what makes them keen to bet on any given match?

At a glance, I'd say this weekends' games are fairly open with maybe only 1 or 2 having clear winners, but even then I can make a case for the other side.

However it's clear some posters don't feel that way at all, my man A11dAtP0w3R happy to dive into the Hawks against good opposition and others more than happy to bet against a side like Sydney.

Obviously, the name of the game is gambling but at what point (if any) do you decide a side is value or not, and how do you go about that decision?

What are the main factors (if any) you incorporate into your decision to bet? Do you have certain deal-breakers about any sides, eg. no good in the wet? Any crazy theories?

How many replays do you watch, and if so - what games and why? What are you looking for?

Furthermore, is there such thing as 'doing the form' in regards to footy - Are there such things as form factors and if so, what are they - or is it as simple as deciding who the best side is?

Share your knowledge here with your punting brethren and may we all take the bookies to the cleaners...

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Thnx 4 the tag xox

Ok re: Hawthorn this week…

Ground/Travel interstate well? : tick
No notable injuries? : tick
Form? : tick

That's just three i like to look at before the get go.

Regarding the tick on Hawthorn's form. As i mentioned in the Round 4 thread, they are playing with teams when they want to…That loss to Essendon can be attributed to two parts for mine. 1)Lack of pre-season (although extended for everybody this year due to World Cup) and 2) Coming off a rivalry game (this is has been successful strategy for me in the past) by this i mean any game when the players are up for an occasion against a rival team, it can be Port vs Adel, WCE vs Freo, Bris vs GC or on this occasion Haw vs Geel…the drop off the following week is always a massive chance. And whilst they were beaten by Essendon, when they did decide to put their foot down during the third and fourth quarter their form was there for all too see. Whilst they haven't beaten much on paper in Geelong and WB, its the manner they went about it that was so impressive to me.

Last year they were beaten (only just) against Port at AO, please note that they had half their side missing that game. I remember it well because i had never seen Jordan Lewis play a better game, he was amazing that night. The ground will hold no fears what so ever.

Port's form to me is only average. They were good against Freo (but i dont think Freo played to what they have the past two weeks that night either) they were poor against Sydney at home and only just got past the Roos missing Dal Santo and Wells whilst also having to deal with the early sub of one of their best hardball winners in Ziebell. I think Matthew Lobbe is a big key to them, highly underrated by many, not as big a name as Gray, Boak or even Wines but probably their most important. Ryder has looked very ordinary thus far and i expect him to play much better once Lobbe is back in. Wingard has had a delayed pre season and their back half just doesn't seem to be clicking like they were last year (maybe due to lack of midfield pressure and first hands on the ball from Lobbe). Hodge fit and in the midfield is also a massive plus for Hawthorn who haven't had that luxury over the past few years.

This is the type of game that will have Hawthorn up from the beginning, a chance to make a statement against a fellow preliminary finalist from last year who are desperate for a win at home.

In short, Hawthorn have shown the gears are there in each game so far this season, i haven't seen Port get above fourth as of yet and while i expect them to also be up for it this week they won't be able to go with Hawthorn when they put the foot down at some point during the game on what I've seen so far.

$1.45 chance for mine, just as confident here as i am with GWS against GC who i think are about their right price.

 

[rideclutch]

Cheers ADP - thread was going great guns before you replied

Interesting your theory on coming off rivarly games. Whilst you wouldn't call GWS/Swans a rivarly just yet, it was IMO their highest rating performance this year when you consider the opposition. Do you subscribe to any theory that a big effort like that could leave them a little flat, or is the form difference too big to worry about it?

 

[rideclutch]

How much importance does anyone place on the buzz stats and applying them to their decision making? Things like clearances, contested possessions, tackles, Inside 50's etc.?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Cheers ADP - thread was going great guns before you replied

Interesting your theory on coming off rivarly games. Whilst you wouldn't call GWS/Swans a rivarly just yet, it was IMO their highest rating performance this year when you consider the opposition. Do you subscribe to any theory that a big effort like that could leave them a little flat, or is the form difference too big to worry about it?

Half Time leader bet on GC is probably a good bet, GWS to get their arse into gear after that and run away with it (hopefully for my doubles and trebles). Their midfield is dead set scary, apart from that dud on over 1 million a year that they got from Melbourne.