Footy Season 2000 Predictions

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ESSENDON:

COACH: Kevin Sheedy (since 1981).

CAPTAIN: James Hird.

PREMIERSHIPS: 15 (last in 1993).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 3rd.

KEY PLAYERS: Hird, Matthew LLoyd, Mark Mercuri, Sean Wellman.

STRENGTHS: The best depth in the competition. Possess the game's best full forward in Lloyd while Wellman and Fletcher lead a good defence. The recruitment of ex-Cat John Barnes will boost the ruck division while the return of Hird and Scott Lucas from injury plus the move to Colonial Stadium should give the Bombers a further edge after coming so close last year.

WEAKNESSES: As evidenced in last year's heartbreaking one point loss to Carlton in the preliminary final, the Bombers' less skilled players struggle when the pressure is on. The ruck position also still looks a worry.

PREDICTED FINISH: Premier. Should have won last year only to blow it against Carlton. That loss has burned into the souls of everyone at Windy Hill over the summer and with Hird back to fitness the Bombers look ideally placed to make amends.

KANGAROOS:

COACH: Denis Pagan (since 1993).

CAPTAIN: Wayne Carey.

PREMIERSHIPS: Four (last in 1999).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: First.

KEY PLAYERS: Carey, Corey McKernan, Mick Martyn, Peter Bell.

STRENGTHS: After seven successive years in the finals including two premierships and three grand final appearances in the last four years, the Roos are the yardstick for all other AFL teams. They have arguably the game's best-ever player in Carey, complemented by an aggressive defence led by Martyn and a hard-working midfield. Since last year's flag the Roos recruited the best player available in the draft in ex-Geelong skipper Leigh Colbert while the addition of ex-Docker ruckman Matthew Burton should allow McKernan to play more in attack.

WEAKNESSES: The critics have been saying it for years, the Roos' lack of pace through midfield is their weakness yet few teams have been able to exploit it. Many of the Roos' key players are also into the twilight of their careers.

PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd. Impossible to believe the Roos won't be up there challenging for back-to-back flags. But recent encounters suggest the Bombers are a fraction better.

BRISBANE

COACH: Leigh Matthews (since 1999).

CAPTAIN: Michael Voss and Alastair Lynch.

PREMIERSHIPS: Nil.

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 4th.

KEY PLAYERS: Voss, Jarrod Molloy, Justin Leppitsch, Darryl White.

STRENGTHS: An even playing list with few superstars other than Voss but also few poor players. Eleven home games at their extended Gabba home is a huge advantage while the Lions have a superb backline, led by the much improved Leppitsch, which conceded a league low 76 points per game last season.

WEAKNESSES: Lack a forward line matchwinner in the mould of Lloyd or Carey. Still haven't proved they can win the big games in Melbourne although they were desperately unlucky to be hit by injuries and suspensions in last year's preliminary final loss to the Kangaroos.

PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd. The Lions rose from 16th to 4th under former Collingwood premiership coach Matthews last year and with their playing list and huge home ground advantage will be a genuine premiership hope.

CARLTON:

COACH: David Parkin (since 1991).

CAPTAIN: Craig Bradley.

PREMIERSHIPS: 16 (last in 1995).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: Runner-up.

KEY PLAYERS: Lance Whitnall, Matthew Allan, Stephen Silvagni, Brett Ratten.

STRENGTHS: Terrific midfield led by much improved ruckman Allan and profilic ballwinners Ratten, Bradley and Fraser Brown. Silvagni remains one of the game's elite defenders while the Blues have three of the most promising young forwards in the AFL in Whitnall, Aaron Hamill and Brendon Fevola.

WEAKNESSES: Lack of pace through the midfield is offset when the Blues play at their small Optus Oval home but can be exploited on bigger grounds. While their attack has improved the Blues still struggle to kick big scores.

PREDICTED FINISH: 4th. Stunned everyone last year by reaching the grand final and would have to improve again this season just to match that effort. Will certainly be up with the leading contenders again but may not have the firepower to match Essendon and the Kangaroos.

HAWTHORN:

COACH: Peter Schwab (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Shane Crawford.

PREMIERSHIPS: Nine (last in 1991).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 9th.

KEY PLAYERS: Crawford, Nathan Thompson, Paul Salmon, Jonathan Hay.

STRENGTHS: The Hawks have some of the most promising key position players within their ranks with Hay and Trent Croad two of the league's best young defenders and Thompson a potential 100 goal full-forward. Add to that the league's premier midfielder in reigning Brownlow medallist Crawford and the Hawks look well equipped to push up the ladder.

WEAKNESSES: A lack of depth in several key positions looks to be the Hawks' biggest worry with their back-up players not as good as the leading contenders. In particular a lack of a quality ruckman to help out veteran Salmon is a problem while in midfield the Hawks rely heavily on Crawford.

PREDICTED FINISH: 5th. The Hawks look poised to end a run of three years out of the finals and give new coach Schwab a first-up finals appearance.

WESTERN BULLDOGS:

COACH: Terry Wallace (since 1996).

CAPTAIN: Scott Wynd.

PREMIERSHIPS: One (in 1954).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 6th.

KEY PLAYERS: Chris Grant, Luke Darcy, Rohan Smith, Scott West.

STRENGTHS: Arguably the best midfield in the AFL. The Bulldogs are virtually an entire team of midfielders and coach Wallace has the luxury of being able to rotate numerous players through the middle. Also possess two quality ruckman in Darcy and veteran Wynd.

WEAKNESSES: A lack of quality key position players other than Grant, who still does not kick as many goals as he should. Still undersized in defence and lack a quality centre half-back as well as a recognised spearhead. Several key players such as Wynd, Tony Liberatore, Jose Romero and Paul Hudson are in the twilight of their careers.

PREDICTED FINISH: 6th. The Bulldogs have been one of the AFL's most consistent teams in the past three years but their chance to win that elusive premiership may have gone. Still too good to miss the finals.

ADELAIDE:

COACH: Gary Ayres (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Mark Bickley.

PREMIERSHIPS: Two (last in 1998).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 13th.

KEY PLAYERS: Shaun Rehn, Andrew McLeod, Darren Jarman, Ben Hart.

STRENGTHS: Ideal draw with with 12 games in Adelaide plus only one encounter with Essendon, Carlton and the Kangaroos. The return from injury of champion ruckman Rehn, who missed all of last year as the Crows slumped from 1st to 13th, is also a huge boost while the South Australian outfit still possess one of the league's better defences led by Hart and the underrated Peter Caven.

WEAKNESSES: Plenty of doubts hang over some of the Crows' best players. Rehn is coming back from his third knee reconstruction, McLeod has no cartilage on one knee, Jarman is 33, while Smart and Bickley turn 31.

PREDICTED FINISH: 7th. Will improve on last year's injury-marred season and should give new coach Ayres a first-up final appearance. But don't look good enough to recapture the glory years under Malcolm Blight.

ST KILDA:

COACH: Tim Watson (since 1999).

CAPTAIN: Nathan Burke.

PREMIERSHIPS: One (in 1966).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 10th.

KEY PLAYERS: Robert Harvey, Peter Everitt, Barry Hall, Damian Monkhorst.

STRENGTHS: Potentially one of the best forward lines in the AFL particularly if veteran recruit Monkhorst can hold down the ruck position this year. That would allow the dangerous Everitt to play in attack where the Saints also have quality talls in Hall, Stewart Loewe and Jason Heatley. In Harvey and Burke the Saints also have two of the game's best midfielders.

WEAKNESSES: In the last two years the Saints have lost eight of their last 10 games and eight of their last 11 games respectively. While the Saints have several genuine stars they lack depth and their defence relies too heavily on the Wakelin brothers. Burke and Harvey also need more midfield support - players such as Aussie Jones and Tony Brown have gone backwards in recent years.

PREDICTED FINISH: 8th. A critical year for the Saints and second year coach Watson. Certainly good enough to make the finals but that was also the case last year.

WEST COAST:

COACH: Ken Judge (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Guy McKenna.

PREMIERSHIPS: Two (last in 1994).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 5th.

KEY PLAYERS: Ben Cousins, Scott Cummings, Peter Matera, Glen Jakovich.

STRENGTHS: Strong defence led by Jakovich and Ashley McIntosh while the recruitment of Cummings last year solved the club's previous lack of strikepower. The Eagles also have some of the game's best young midfielders in Ben Cousins and Michael Braun.

WEAKNESSES: Many key players are nearing the end of their careers. Skipper McKenna turns 31 this year, as does Peter Matera, Dean Kemp and Chris Lewis. The huge influence over the club of departing coach Mick Malthouse (10 finals appearances in 10 years) will be virtually impossible to replace.

PREDICTED FINISH: 9th. The Eagles have too many good players to drop into the lower reaches but equally don't appear capable of improvement with their key players ageing.

SYDNEY:

COACH: Rodney Eade (in 1996).

CAPTAIN: Paul Kelly.

PREMIERSHIPS: Three (last in 1933).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 8th.

KEY PLAYERS: Daryn Cresswell, Andrew Dunkley, Adam Goodes, Michael O'Loughlin.

STRENGTHS: With some Victorian clubs looking to cash in on the potentially lucrative Sydney market, the Swans have the luxury of 13 SCG matches this season. The Swans also have some of the AFL's most promising young players in last year's Rising Star winner Goodes plus Jason Saddington, Jude Bolton and Matthew Nicks. The return of ruckman Greg Stafford from injury is a boost while Cresswell and Wayne Schwass remain two of the game's best ball winners.

WEAKNESSES: The retirement of the game's greatest ever full-forward Tony Lockett and the loss through injury for most of the season of captain Paul Kelly leave two virtually unfillable holes in the Swans' line-up. Defence still looks a worry.

PREDICTED FINISH: 10th. Many people are tipping doom and gloom for the Swans this year following the losses of Lockett and Kelly. But their dream draw and promising crop of young players should keep Sydney in contention for a finals berth.

PORT ADELAIDE:

COACH: Mark Williams (since 1999).

CAPTAIN: Gavin Wanganeen.

PREMIERSHIPS: Nil.

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 7th.

KEY PLAYERS: Warren Tredrea, Wanganeen, Matthew Primus, Stephen Paxman.

STRENGTHS: Good midfield led by skipper Wanganeen and Brayden Lyle. In Tredrea the Power have one of the game's most exciting forwards while the return from a serious knee injury of ruckman Primus will be a huge boost.

WEAKNESSES: Tough draw despite 12 games in Adelaide with return games against Essendon and Brisbane while once only clashes against the Kangaroos and West Coast are both away. Lack of strikepower, other than Tredrea, remains a big problem with the Power having only three players who kicked more than 20 goals last year.

PREDICTED FINISH: 11th. Capable of matching last year's finals appearance but not helped by tough draw. Other teams look capable of leapfrogging the Power this season.

MELBOURNE:

COACH: Neale Daniher (since 1998).

CAPTAIN: David Neitz.

PREMIERSHIPS: 12 (last in 1964).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 14th.

KEY PLAYERS: Neitz, David Schwarz, Jeff White, Jeff Farmer.

STRENGTHS: Powerful forward line with the addition of Bulldogs' spearhead James Cook complementing Schwarz at centre half-forward and the exciting Jeff Farmer in a forward pocket. The Demons also have one of the game's best young ruckman in White while they have plenty of good ball winners in Adem Yze, Guy Rigoni, Shane Woewodin and new recruit Stephen Powell.

WEAKNESSES: Backline looks a big worry even if the presence of Cook should allow skipper Neitz to play in defence more often this season. Full-back Jamie Shanahan is now 32 and no obvious replacement looms while a lack of a quality back-up for White is a worry.

PREDICTED FINISH: 12th. Off-field problems were a key reason behind the Demons fall from 4th to 14th last season after rising from 16th the previous year. Should improve this year but a lack of star quality is likely to keep Melbourne in the bottom half.

RICHMOND:

COACH: Danny Frawley (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Matthew Knights.

PREMIERSHIPS: 10 (last in 1980).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 12th.

KEY PLAYERS: Matthew Richardson, Wayne Campbell, Brad Ottens, Joel Bowden.

STRENGTHS: Has one of the AFL's few genuine matchwinners in star forward Richardson while Ottens is a rising star. Core midfield group of Campbell, Knights and Nick Daffy is solid while centre half-back Darren Gaspar should be far better this season after overcoming the illness that plagued him throughout 1999.

WEAKNESSES: Undersized in defence, too reliant on Campbell and Knights in midfield and lacking support for Richardson up forward. They are the problems that confront new coach Frawley and the signs throughout the pre-season are that the Tigers are still a long way from solving them.

PREDICTED FINISH: 13th. The Tigers always play with plenty of passion and will cause one or two upsets but lack the quality to make the eight.

COLLINGWOOD:

COACH: Mick Malthouse (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Nathan Buckley.

PREMIERSHIPS: 14 (last in 1990).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 16th.

KEY PLAYERS: Buckley, Saverio Rocca, Anthony Rocca, Paul Williams.

STRENGTHS: Possess one of the game's greatest players in Buckley while in the talented but inconsistent Rocca brothers they have quality key position players at both ends of the ground. But it is the addition of much respected ex Eagles coach Mick Malthouse that could prove to be the Magpies' biggest strength as he is renowned at getting improvement from young players and last year's wooden spooners have plenty of those including No.1 draft pick Josh Fraser and exciting goalsneak Leon Davis.

WEAKNESSES: A lack of quality right across the list with a lack of height in defence the biggest worry. Apart from Sav Rocca, who was injured for much of last season, the Magpies don't have a proven goalkicker while too much is left to Buckley in midfield.

PREDICTED FINISH: 14th: Will certainly improve under Malthouse but the 'Black and White Army' will have to wait a little longer for the glory days to return.

GEELONG:

COACH: Mark Thompson (newly appointed).

CAPTAIN: Ben Graham.

PREMIERSHIPS: Six (last in 1963).

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 11TH.

KEY PLAYERS: Garry Hocking, Graham, Steven King, Ronnie Burns.

STRENGTHS: Top young ruckman in King and a solid defence led by new skipper Graham and the tough Tim McGrath. Good draw is a bonus with once only matches against Essendon and Brisbane (at home).

WEAKNESSES: Since the end of last year the Cats have lost their captain Leigh Colbert, two-time all-Australian defender Mick Mansfield and their best ruckman of recent years in John Barnes to rival clubs. Have a lack of quality across the list with players such as Barry Stoneham, Liam Pickering, Paul Lynch and Derek Hall weighed down by injuries in recent years. Lack of key forwards a big worry with too much goalkicking responsibility left to the inconsistent Ronnie Burns.

PREDICTED FINISH IN 2000: 15th: A tough first year in store for new coach Thompson.

FREMANTLE:

COACH: Damian Drum (since 1999).

CAPTAIN: Adrian Fletcher and Shaun McManus.

PREMIERSHIPS: Nil.

FINISHED LAST YEAR: 15th.

KEY PLAYERS: Fletcher, Tony Modra, Clive Waterhouse, Daniel Bandy.

STRENGTHS: Possess one of the AFL's best spearheads in Modra and one of the game's most profilic ballwinners in Fletcher and a genuine home ground advantage with the Dockers usually competitive in most of their 12 Perth games.

WEAKNESSES: The worst list in the competition with no stars other than Fletcher and Modra and defence a huge worry. Hardly ever win away from Perth and lack height in most positions. Badly need a big year from Bandy in the ruck and will be hoping promising newcomers Matthew Pavlich and Paul Hasleby provide a boost to attack and midfield.

PREDICTED FINISH: 16th: With Collingwood likely to improve under Malthouse it's hard to imagine the Dockers finishing anywhere but last.
 
Oooh - Frodo's learnt to cut and paste. It would have been polite to give AAP the attribution though...
 
Frodo writes for the AAP you ******* Powermad, are you stupid or something, get with it, I know people from Port Adelaide are a bit slow and all but come on
 

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A really good wrap-up but I don't agree with The'Weaknesses' section for my team, Hawthorn. It's a bit bleedin' obvious to state that "back-up players not as good as the leading contenders" that could applu to any team. Disagree on lack of depth for key position players. Hawks have nine players cpable of doing an excellent/Adequate job in the ruck plus four 'big men' positions (Salmon, Thompson, O'Farrell, Hay, Croad, Holland, Graham, Rawlings, Barker) five of these have already had minor injuries so perhaps injuries may bite deep this year.

I would say the weaknesses are:

1. Need to improve delivery to forward line on a more consistent basis. Smith, Treleven and Harford the keys here, take Crawford, Taylor and Rock as constant here

2. Midfield quite good with some depth but needs some help against 'beefier' opponents. Young may be valuable here

3. Young side needs to be more consistent, especially over more quarters than at present.

4. New coach needs to develop some new 'strategies' quite quickly. But he has the talent at his disposal.

5. Tough draw, but good sides seem to do better in a year with a 'tough' draw (eg essendon in '93 and '99)
 
Being an essendon supporter I thought I'd pick the first round team for Sheeds. t osee how real our depth is.

FB Johnson M, Fletcher Henneman
HB Soloman, Wellman, Hardwick
C Long, Misiti, Barnard
HF Mercuri, Alessio,Hird
FF Rioli, Llyodd, Caracella
F Barnes, Johnson J,Heffernan
Bench Wallis, Blumfield, Denham,Ramanuauskas

bad luck to Jacobs,Bewick,McCallister,McVeigh
Prior.
I stacked with running midfield types because its a game against port. Maybe the foward line is a little slow, especially in putting pressure on the ball coming out with both Rioli and Caracella chosen, not known in my mind for intense efforts at keeping the ball down there. But its easy enough to adjust the team by adding a runner, benching one of them, and sending Barnard up foward.

To add: Lucas and probably Moorcroft. In my mind Lucas may well find himself playing some tall defender when he gets fit. That would reallymake for a re-bounding back line.
 
Well Frodo may write for AAP, but he/she must be a moron if they think Hawthorn will finish 5th.
 
I'm with you, power mad - Hawthorn will finish third or fourth

Get used to It - We'll be up here for a few years now
 
On the basis of what? A brownlow medalist and a couple of good games at the end of last season? [Remember pre-season games count for nothing] Be realistic. A slight improvement yes, but third or fourth- that's a bit optimistic!
An untried coach and new coaching staff, a tough draw (you say?) and with only one consistantly good player, 7th - 10th in 2000.
 
I may be a bit optimistic (for once) but sometime soon Hawthorn will be very, very good. Whether its this season or later will remain to be seen. I've already noted the weaknesses to be overcome. A pessimistic view would be just outside the eight, by a whisker

But Eagle Fan, you've got at least two years to come of what we've had over the tast three years, one Mr Judge. When you offered him a job (nobody else did) you did us a BIG favour.

And don't give me any crap about better players at WCE, when KJ came to hawthorn we had four or five superstars and some young guns and the last flag was five years before - just like the eagles now - It's Deja vu, again
 
Okay the low down on where I see the Hawkers this season. For one thing if they dont finish at least 6/7th I will be bitterly disappointed. Eagle-fan says how can we do so well with one consistantly good player? I guess that aside from salmon/crawf/Croad/hay/Chick/Lekkas........
added to that Thommo who could be bigger than jes ... well lets say the Beatles no to offend religous types. Handy team indeed and the midfiel is better than given credit now that judge has gone they might be allowed to display some offensive qualitys. Judge makes Mmalthouse look like blight! The eagles will come to realise this very soon.

Cmon a bit of credit there is a very handy team being put together down the Hawks way. Pess said he sees the worries in Midfield. Personally i have alot of time for Barlow and rekon that he could really catch a few out,Young should be good in the crunches and with Graham being left upfield Holland (dont laugh) could ruckrove around through the half forward midfield. This is almost how the sceanrio against the eagles went.

The big if is injuries but again that can cut down any team,even the much heralded deths of the bombers.If Long fell over I rekon they are nowhere near as potent as his vision is just so good, mercuri is nearing his class though so he could step up.

My ladder? who knows what will happen but i rekon the one team no one hear is giving a thought towards a the lions.
A team of atheltes not footballers is the biggest load a crap ive heard in ages. Look at their midfield and if they stay fit (again injuries)Voss/Scott/Black/Mcrae/Lawrence/lambert/
akerhead add to that a great defense and a solid attack I think they are the ones to watch.
 
Hi Grendel

Where did all the Hawks posters go ? Bigfooty has it's moments but all threads lead to Essendon/Power/coming top is the best/I hate north/Ihate essendon etc.

Just on Thommo. I saw him on TV being interviewed and he's (personally)so much like Richardson, let's hope he doesn't turn out like him on the field. Wow the guy is really exciting in the packs. Someone said at the game that he was more in the mould of Huddo (sr.) But I guess to avoid injuries like the last one he'll have to tone it down a bit, more's the pity.

I just realised in that in the pre-season we out-marked everybody, even in the losses. We just need to be more efficient with our use.

I agree with you on Barlow but I see Woodsy being given constructive roles also. He's been doing a bit of that on the quiet and Crawf may be more of a forward this year.

I thought about the key players and came up with a couple of spines to play each other in an intra-club game which would be interesting (UPPERCASE playing up the page)

THOMPSON
Rawlings
HOLLAND
Graham
SALMON
O'Farrell
CROAD
Barker
HAY
dixon

The midfields:

CRAWFORD ROCK HARFORD SMITH
Taylor Woods Barlow Treleven
 

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Just to set the record straight you Hawk fans, I'm a serious bomber fan and despite your calls to the contrary have been rating the Lions as a huge threat for ages on this forum (it just North that I don't rate any more). Again, I rate the Lions, mass injuries, attitude, tribunal adn/or horrendous kicking as the only things that can stop us this year.

Re: Hawthorn, I agree that they have some significant talent on the way up of whom Thompson is only the tip of the iceberg - and Bazza will be a huge bonus in protecting Crawford and providing drive.

But, Salmon is on his last legs and you still need some more depth should the injury toll happen again.

Who know's? You may have all the depth you need already at the club just waiting to take the next step up - that seems to be what happens at Essendon ever coupla years.

Incidently, glad to see Salmon end out his career in such style but thanks for Wellman, he's the best CHB we've had in the last 30 years - Barnard's not bad either. Robran - jury is out.

Dutch
 
Hmph - all the same players that saw Hawthorn miss the finals last year. The only change is the coach. We'll see...
 
PM

New talented players: Thompson and Young (at least)

That's not no change.

Get the ol facts straight (and don't tell me Thompson was in the 2s developing or some such BS as a smart alec reply).

Incidently, re: Port I agree that they are unlikely to lose ground in terms of ability -however, if teams like Richmond, StKilda, Hawthorn, Adelaide and hell even Collingwood improve at a rapid rate then.. well.. you might still lose ground on the ladder. We'll see.
 
Hi Pess, yeah I get your meaning on the posts of a few it was to bad those morons on the Hawks forum stuffed it up for all the rest. I keep sending requests for its return but I like the general discussion in here too!
Re PowerMad and the improvment and where it should come from,thanks dutchman for pointing it out. Kids from the last couple of years are now (the spine in particular) seem ready for it now. Just hope it is proved right.[ who
the hell are Ports recruits? Mongomery who cant put two good games back to back and the Melbourne bloke who couldnt get a regular game last year with them when they were going awful. Plus you gave up Eagleton??? Lord knows what williams was thinking there, to much of the red cottes cordial.
Most other teams in the league I dont really have any particular warm fuzzy feelings for but I dont mind the bombers , strange as that may sound., I save all my loathing for rich.... cant even bring myself to type the name. Please Pess never compare Thommo to that lug Richardson again. I rekon he is more like a Mckernan in that he could be outstanding either as a forward or ruck. Your matck ups for the intra were interesting,how abour Croady and Thommo going at each other? NO mayve not hahaha.

Dutchman I go to quite a few bomber games with my best mate and though I admire the depth of talent I always feel that there is (or has been) something not quite right in the mix for them. I call it Sheedy who I rekon has cost you more flags than he has one.(Every grand final from 83 to 91 should have been Hawks vs Ess, that it wasnt can only be directed at one K Sheedy. One question I have never had a good answer to is why Harvey was shifted to a half back when he was one of the best half forwards ive seen. Re the Wellman/Barnard three way with Jarman and Salmon. If you had had Salmon last year then maybe Allen wouldnt have killed you in the prelim. Allessio, mountain of a body soul of a kitten.
depth is well and good put it is still the top liners that win you the big stuff. Just pray that Hird (and yes I have seen how good he is and that is HE IS BLOODY GOOD) can come back and that Lond can still be so gifted of one leg. Does he ever kick with the right, imagine how creative he could be then haha.




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Just one other thought on predictions

Everyone is fancying Essendon, North and Brisbane to make the top three again. But you need to go a long way back for the top three to be the same as the previous season

In fact over the last four years, for the top four, an average of one team has come from the previous top four, two have come from the positions 5-14 (weighted in the ratio 2:1 from positions 5-8) and one has come from the positions 15-16. Yes for the past three years running a final four team has come from last or second last, and made the preliminary final (Footscray '97, Melbourne '98 and Brisbane '99)

That means that on average, only one (two at the most) of this years final four will come from Essendon, North, Brisbane, Bulldogs. Two will come from the positions 5-14, and more likely from 5-8 and one will come from 15 or 16. Collingwood ? Perhaps they're a little young but look to 13 and 14 you have Melbourne and Adelaide, who could quite easily bounce back this year.

So where do they go to when they are pushed out of the four ? They don't quite fall so far. No top four team has finished 15 or 16 the next year (Melbourne managed 4 down to 14 last year)and one, possibly two stays in the top four. of the other three they will go to positions 5-14 but more likely to stay in the eight (3:1 ratio)

Are Essendon, North, Brisbane and Bulldogs really that far ahead ? Essendon and Bulldogs lost finals to supposedly much lower sides. They seem strong now but even Carlton slid down to 5th after a year in which they won the most games ever.

Not to mention that six teams have new coaches.
 
Powermad,I never even mentioned where I thought Port would finish> I dont discount yyyour chances and ,yeah with the rynners you have and tredrea and cornes up front I rekon that anywhere between6-10th will be where you will finish up.
As to your assertion that Brereton/Walls and blight know more about the game than me, well..... Walls and Brereton do but Blighty has lost the plot go to
http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/20000228/A45102-2000Feb28.html

also apology to not including Cable before in the chapion bracket, an oversight on my part :)



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I reckon Essendon are going to have a stellar year and win the flag easily. I think they will only lose one game late in the home and away season, probably against a side like the bulldogs as they can match Essendons run from half back, and have a strong potent foward line.

I see Melbourne coming from no-where and matching their performance in 1998. I think they can possibly make the grand final.

I think Carlton will also challenge for the flag, and string together a long run of wins. Kouta will dominate, although i can see them making the top 4, i can see them having a dissapointing finals series.

Predicted Top 8: After rd 22
1.Essendon
2:Melbourne
3:Carlton
4:Kangaroos
5:Geelong
6:Brisbane
7:Bulldogs
8:Hawthorn

Premiers: Essendon
Runners Up: Melbourne
Brownlow: Kouta (Dark horse: Shane Woewodin)
Norm Smith: Hird
Coleman: Lloyd
 
Ummmmm yeah.
Well done. :confused:

The point of this being?



I reckon Essendon are going to have a stellar year and win the flag easily. I think they will only lose one game late in the home and away season, probably against a side like the bulldogs as they can match Essendons run from half back, and have a strong potent foward line.

I see Melbourne coming from no-where and matching their performance in 1998. I think they can possibly make the grand final.

I think Carlton will also challenge for the flag, and string together a long run of wins. Kouta will dominate, although i can see them making the top 4, i can see them having a dissapointing finals series.

Predicted Top 8: After rd 22
1.Essendon
2:Melbourne
3:Carlton
4:Kangaroos
5:Geelong
6:Brisbane
7:Bulldogs
8:Hawthorn

Premiers: Essendon
Runners Up: Melbourne
Brownlow: Kouta (Dark horse: Shane Woewodin)
Norm Smith: Hird
Coleman: Lloyd
 
STRENGTHS: Strong defence led by Jakovich and Ashley McIntosh while the recruitment of Cummings last year solved the club's previous lack of strikepower. The Eagles also have some of the game's best young midfielders in Ben Cousins and Michael Braun.

Hang on... I though Braun was a virtual unknown untill he burst onto the scene against the Brisbane Lions in 2004, in a game on Jason Akermanis that had everyone sit up and take notice...
 

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Footy Season 2000 Predictions

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