For all the talk of backline inadequacy, do we need a new forward structure?

sauce_head

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 24, 2006
Posts
7,042
Likes
3,668
AFL Club
St Kilda
Thread starter #1
Are we as simple to beat as two lose men 30 metres out in front of goal, or are our forwards lazy? Is it the rushed nature of the men behind the ball game plan that is to blame? I am not for the coach being at fault, but can somebody tell me how it has gone so dramatically wrong?


http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21895730-11088,00.html


ST Kilda kicked more goals than any other team in 2005, Mark Stevens writes.

This year it is tracking to finish as the fifth lowest-scoring team in the past 20 years.
Footy is still a simple game.
If you pump the ball inside 50 more than the opposition, odds are you will win.
Official stats kept since the start of 1999 reveal 73 per cent of teams winning the inside 50s take the four points as well.
Yet St Kilda's class of 2007 continues to defy logic.
The Saints have won the inside 50s in seven of 11 games this year for just four victories.
It happened again on Sunday. St Kilda won the inside 50s 51-49 against the Kangaroos, yet had seven fewer scoring shots and lost by 22 points.
Saints coach Ross Lyon is well aware of the conversion problem, raising it at his post-match media conference.
But there is plenty more in the devilish detail.
St Kilda, which kicked more goals than any other team in 2004 and 2005, is now ranked 16th and averaging just 10.4 goals a game.
The Saints are tracking to finish as the fifth lowest-scoring team in 20 years.
Fitzroy, in its final year of 1996, averaged just 9.4 goals a game.
Melbourne in '97 averaged 9.4, the Bulldogs of 1989 10.1 and Fitzroy of 1995 10.5.
St Kilda has time to lift its average before the end of the season, and surely it will not get any worse.
But the Saints' scoring has dropped dramatically in the past month.
In losses to Hawthorn, Fremantle, Geelong and the Kangaroos, they have managed 222 points, 73 fewer than any other team in those four rounds. And the root of the problem is the important art of converting forward 50 entries into goals.
Consider these facts:
ST KILDA this season scores a goal just 21.3 per cent of the time once inside 50, ranked 16th in the competition and clearly the worst conversion rate since Champion Data has been keeping the stat.
THE second-worst conversion rate recorded is St Kilda's 23.3 per cent back in 2000, the year the Saints finished last with two wins and a draw.
IN THE past four rounds, the Saints are turning just 15.3 per cent of forward entries into goals, 5 per cent less than any other team in that time.
BACK in 2004 when the Saints scored the most goals in the competition, they converted 30.6 per cent of forward 50s into goals.
So what's going wrong?
The Saints have genuinely dangerous marking targets in Nick Riewoldt, Fraser Gehrig and Justin Koschitzke and a buzzing crumber in Stephen Milne.
On paper, it should be a matter of getting it in there and letting the foursome do the rest.
But in the past four weeks, the Saints haven't produced one bag of more than two goals. Gehrig has kicked two goals three times and Riewoldt two twice.
A Champion Data investigation has revealed key reasons for the big dry.
When the Saints are getting it into 50, they are invariably being forced wide.
Just 57.7 per cent of all St Kilda's shots on goal have been from the corridor, ranked 16th in the competition.
The Kangaroos, the Saints' masters on Sunday, have had 75.4 per cent of shots from the corridor.
The wider you go, the more inaccurate you will be.
And the Saints rank 16th for accuracy, converting 51.4 per cent of shots.
Then there is the basic fact that Riewoldt, Gehrig and Milne are spending less time inside 50.
Riewoldt, working as hard as ever this year, is winning 35.9 per cent of his possessions inside 50. Through 2004-06, Riewoldt was winning 41.4 per cent of his ball in the arc.
Gehrig is now winning only 55.8 per cent of his stats inside 50, down from 77.1 per cent in 2004-06.
And Milne, once the king of patrolling close to goal, has won just 39.7 per cent of his ball in the forward arc. In the previous three years, he tracked at 52.1 per cent.
Lyon doesn't need reminding he has a problem on his hands. Finding a way to get reward for hard work down the field will be high on his list of priorities for the mid-season break.
The Saints' opponents are converting inside 50s into goals 27.1 per cent of the time.
The gap to the Saints' 21.3 is the widest in the competition, and that is what is hurting them on the scoreboard.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Red Gum

All Australian
Joined
May 3, 2006
Posts
785
Likes
12
Location
Brunswick
AFL Club
St Kilda
#2
Finally something which makes sense of the issue instead of just blaming, finger pointing and threatening de-listings etc...

If we can identify the problem it can be solved!
 

Persevering Saint

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jun 8, 2007
Posts
16,900
Likes
27,527
Location
MAdelaide
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
I'm a lover, not a fighter
#4
One thing I'm interested to see about the forward line is how we respond to G-Train being out for 1-3 weeks. Presumably this will bring Watts back into the side. Is that going to be a curse or a blessing? Part of me thinks RL's game-plan just doesn't suit Fraser's style - it requires more run from a FF rather than Fraser's preferred stand back and use his size and strength to out-do his opponent. But I dunno...

The thing is, based on the report you've cited, this isn't so much about the forwards' ability, but really about the mid-field. This brings us back to the thing we've talked about heaps, which is that it's not enough to kick it into the 50m, you have to get it there quickly and not force your forward either to go out wide, or have to contest with a flooded opposition backline.

... That and Roo has to learn that he's meant to aim BETWEEN the big sticks, not AT the big sticks (struth, how many times has he hit the posts this year?).
 

Monika72

Team Captain
Joined
Apr 30, 2007
Posts
356
Likes
361
Location
Daylesford
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Tottenham Hot Spurs
#5
After 11 rounds our forward line has been very disappointing. This is the same forward line as last year so what is the problem?
It’s the forward coach. He has to go. I don’t think the midfield or backs are great, but they are holding their own. So John Barker has to go.:thumbsd
 

sainter

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Joined
Mar 5, 2000
Posts
14,466
Likes
33
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Southampton,Victory,Storm
#6
Unfortunately our skill level has been atrocious and it doesn't matter what forward structure or game plan our team employs when we can't hit a target from 20 metres away.

The most disappointing thing is that it was right across the board. Grammy was coughing it up out of defence, Hayes was winning plenty of it but generally turning it over, Milne was getting a bit of the ball up the ground but doing nothing with it.

Perhaps it's just a symptom of the lack of confidence that's engulfing the team at the moment but unless it improves we're not going to win many more games.
 

Fehring

Club Legend
Joined
Aug 9, 2006
Posts
2,696
Likes
3,092
Location
Level 2 Bar, Coventry End
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Packers, Detroit Tigers
#7
Sorry to bore those of you who trawl the Saints boards by repeating myself, but there are two differences between the team of the first seven rounds and the team that has lost the last four - X Clarke and C Jones. They tackled, caused turnovers and created goals in our foward fifty. The past month we have regularly had more inside 50s than our opponents and lost. Anyone who has watched us the last two weeks can testify to the fact that the ball ricochets out of our forward line like a pinball. Bring back Clarke and Jones, bring back the winning feeling.
 
Joined
May 3, 2007
Posts
80
Likes
0
AFL Club
St Kilda
#8
Unfortunately our skill level has been atrocious and it doesn't matter what forward structure or game plan our team employs when we can't hit a target from 20 metres away.

The most disappointing thing is that it was right across the board. Grammy was coughing it up out of defence, Hayes was winning plenty of it but generally turning it over, Milne was getting a bit of the ball up the ground but doing nothing with it.

Perhaps it's just a symptom of the lack of confidence that's engulfing the team at the moment but unless it improves we're not going to win many more games.
I agree. Our disposal has been very, very poor (especially into the forward line).

Lack of confidence is definitely part of the reason. Guys like lenny and sam fisher were turning it over, and theyre usually so reliable disposal-wise...so hopefully the confidence returns soon!

As far as the forward-line structure is concerned i dun think GTrain suits RL's game style as 'Perservering Saint' said. He is an out and out 'stay at home' FF. Be interesting to know the percentage of his goals that he kicks from 0-20m out.

In GTrain's absence id like to see Sweeney brought into the line-up. He seems to have been kicking 2-3 consistently for Casey and would suit RL's game style as a lead-up forward. I havn't seen Watts play this year, saw that he kicked 3 the other week...but is he match fit yet? he could be another option.

Fingers crossed X and C.Jones will be back from the WCE game - we desparately need their pace and pressure skills within the fwd 50.
 
Top Bottom