Four Teams Can Still Win The Minor Premiership...

[PerthBoy86]

Surely this situation is unprecedented in round 23? Has top spot or top 2 ever been so close? Sure, it's very hard for WC or Richmond to do it, but mathematically possible. Geelong the likeliest, with their percentage and having Carlton. Brisbane next, just having to beat Richmond unless the Cats also lose. The Eagles would need the Cats to lose, to thump the Hawks and for the Tigers to win (preferably handily). While the Tigers would need to thump Brisbane by at least 60? (Haven't done the maths) and hope Geelong loses, and WC lose or doesn't win by enough.

Conversely the race for 8th is still wide open, also one of the closest races for 8th spot I can remember. What a year of footy, and final round. Who said footy is getting worse?

 

[demondavey]

Personally I think by round 23 top spot will be decided between Richmond, Brisbane, Geelong or West Coast.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Geelong probably favourite although the current Blues are no pushover and the Lions are a decent chance V Tigers

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

One of the last times Geelong won the minor premiership in 1992, Geelong, Footscray and Collingwood finished on 16 wins and West Coast finished on 15.5. All won their final game, so each was a chance to finish on top heading into the last round.

In 1996 Sydney beat West Coast to finish first, had the Eagles (fourth) won that game, they could have finished on top. Brisbane was smacked by Collingwood to finish a game behind Sydney and if they'd won, the Bears would have claimed the minor premiership. North won its final game and was also in the mix to finish on top if West Coast had beaten Sydney. All had percentages around the 123-127 mark.

Back then though, it probably wasn't considered as important as the top four didn't play each other in the first week of the finals.

 

[NetworkNerd]

2012 had 3 teams on 64 points going into the last round. Collingwood was on 60 but didn't have the percentage to take first.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think the thing that separates this year is the potential venues involved. If Brisbane lose and West Coast win, a combined 12 goal margin in those games would make it very tight, percentage wise. And that would make things very interesting, if Richmond have the game in hand with West Coast having already won comfortably and the venue for the Qualifying Final changing between Perth and Brisbane with each junk time goal.

Combine that with the MCG and a combination of any two of the three being in play and it's going to be a very interesting round for the top four, which may even live up to the standard set in round 22.

 

[Handsuper47]

People forget just how close the top 7 in 2016 was

 

[Kwality]

Minor premiership, has anyone ever cared?
Top 2 gets the prize, nothing for a minor premiership.

 

[kranky al]

Minor premiership, has anyone ever cared?
Top 2 gets the prize, nothing for a minor premiership.

Id say being that its the first bit of silver the purples have ever had and the end of all the empty trophy cabinet memes and gags - the mclelland is rated by them as substantially better than a flick on the nuts with a rubber band.

And in truth it should be rated higher - the club that wins it has been the best club all year. It should be rated and rewarded in accordance with this.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Id say being that its the first bit of silver the purples have ever had and the end of all the empty trophy cabinet memes and gags - the mclelland is rated by them as substantially better than a flick on the nuts with a rubber band.

And in truth it should be rated higher - the club that wins it has been the best club all year. It should be rated and rewarded in accordance with this.

100% agreed. It's the best measuring stick to prove the best team (all year) by facts.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Would be interesting if we happen to be up by 6 or 7 goals at three quarter time, to see if we're instructed to go hard or if they ease off

 

[Fyfetheknife]

100% agreed. It's the best measuring stick to prove the best team (all year) by facts.

With how the draw is done I disagree. If everyone played each other an equal amount of times then this would have some base to it

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

And in truth it should be rated higher - the club that wins it has been the best club all year. It should be rated and rewarded in accordance with this.

Amen. The AFL is really missing a trick in not celebrating the minor premiership more and really offering no discernible advantage over finishing second. Most people aren't even sure whether the McLelland trophy exists. Removing the 'minor premiers' title wouldn't be a bad start.

If it's possible, make the presentation at the end of the round 23 game (which won't work this year, unless Brisbane or Richmond wins it) - provided the team actually wins the game, I suppose, or the round in which the team clinches it if there's a bolter that year.

For all the games Geelong's won in my life, we've finished top of the ladder three times, with an excellent chance to make it four this week, even though the last two months have been so frustrating as a Geelong supporter that when I switched the Brisbane game on last weekend, my two year old calmly said "F**k's sake, Dad" (whoops).

And even with the mind numbing frustration of our recent form, even though two of the three top finishes ultimately ended with a Grand Final loss, the season is still worth celebrating. It's a great achievement.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The curse of the minor premiership?

 

[dean33]

Minor premiership, has anyone ever cared?
Top 2 gets the prize, nothing for a minor premiership.

Only thing minor premiers get is a curse.

 

[Benny78]

Richmonds win next week will have us finish 1st

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Only thing minor premiers get is a curse.

Isn't first place still the most likely ladder finish for the premier since the current finals system has been introduced?

I'd say the 'curse' can be attributed more to there often not being much of a gap between first and second (or even the top four) and the likelihood of a non-Victorian top placed team travelling to - at best - a neutral venue (often their opponent's home ground) to play the grand final.

 

[W.C. Fry]

Minor premiership, has anyone ever cared?
Top 2 gets the prize, nothing for a minor premiership.

Only thing minor premiers get is a curse.

Port Adelaide and Brisbane 2004 strongly disagree.

Kind of ironic that the side that happily stole a home final last is the side whinging the most now about their finals location.

 

[dean33]

Isn't first place still the most likely ladder finish for the premier since the current finals system has been introduced?

I'd say the 'curse' can be attributed more to there often not being much of a gap between first and second (or even the top four) and the likelihood of a non-Victorian top placed team travelling to - at best - a neutral venue (often their opponent's home ground) to play the grand final.

Well let’s look at the last few years
2018- Tigers 2 games clear on top, fail to make grand final
2017- crows, hot favourites finish runners up
2016- Sydney, hot favourites finish runners up
2015 - Fremantle, fail to make grand final.
2014- Sydney, hot favourites runners up
2012- Hawthorn, hot favourites runners up.

Not a great recent history.

 

[HTT]

Quite amazing that the top 4 all having the same number of wins is a real possibility.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I

Well let’s look at the last few years
2018- Tigers 2 games clear on top, fail to make grand final
2017- crows, hot favourites finish runners up
2016- Sydney, hot favourites finish runners up
2015 - Fremantle, fail to make grand final.
2014- Sydney, hot favourites runners up
2012- Hawthorn, hot favourites runners up.

Not a great recent history.

Firstly, what odds is a 'hot favourite' getting for the flag at this stage of the season? Richmond last year would have been the hottest favourite of that lot and I'd be surprised if they were much shorter than about $2.50. Typically, the favourite is around the $3-3.50 range. Meaning that if you were offered the tipping choice of <<favourite>> or <<anyone else>> for the premiership at round 23, it would be a bold (or mad) call to pick the favourite.

Secondly, is the recent history any better for second, or third, or sixth? I know in Geelong's case, we've finished second on the ladder a stupid number of times in the last 10 years - it's absolutely in play for it to be four times since 2013 and seven since 2009. Second hasn't done much good for us over the period you've quoted (nor has third, fifth, or eighth).

Thirdly, three of those teams were non-Victorians facing Melbourne-based clubs in the GF.

Fourthly, teams just don't have the incentive to push for top spot anymore. It's lock in a finals spot, lock in top four, lock in a home final (and if the top three are Victorian clubs, third is really no worse than first in terms of your path to the GF). If there was a cup for the team at the end of the season, maybe they'd strive a bit more to finish first, instead of second.

 

[winty]

Richmonds win next week will have us finish 1st

We have to win ourselves first.

 

[kranky al]

Amen. The AFL is really missing a trick in not celebrating the minor premiership more and really offering no discernible advantage over finishing second. Most people aren't even sure whether the McLelland trophy exists. Removing the 'minor premiers' title wouldn't be a bad start.

If it's possible, make the presentation at the end of the round 23 game (which won't work this year, unless Brisbane wins it) - provided the team actually wins the game, I suppose, or the round in which the team clinches it if there's a bolter that year.

For all the games Geelong's won in my life, we've finished top of the ladder three times, with an excellent chance to make it four this week, even though the last two months have been so frustrating as a Geelong supporter that when I switched the Brisbane game on last weekend, my two year old calmly said "F**k's sake, Dad" (whoops).

And even with the mind numbing frustration of your recent form, even though two of the three top finishes ultimately ended with a Grand Final loss, the season is still worth celebrating. It's a great achievement.

Yep minor premiership downgrades it

Its a hell of an achievement - its consistency throughout the whole year. Yhe prize money and cachet should be equal to the granny.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Yep minor premiership downgrades it

Its a hell of an achievement - its consistency throughout the whole year. Yhe prize money and cachet should be equal to the granny.

Not sure about equal, but it should be bigger than winning any of those other H&A cups that are on offer.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Yep minor premiership downgrades it

Its a hell of an achievement - its consistency throughout the whole year. Yhe prize money and cachet should be equal to the granny.

I wasn't aware there was prize money for the GF, never thought about it. It's an achievement but let's not get carried away, this isn't the EPL. How anticlimatic would it be if the champion was simply who finished on top? (I know you're not suggested that but just thinking about it).