Free Kick Differential Ladder For 2019

[Final Siren]

-60, -3, -19, -2, -99, -97, -6.

Almost half of the seasons the premiers of that season were at a negative free kick differential, with 2 being almost the absolute worst free kick differential of the whole 16 seasons above.

What credibility does this stat/thread have outside allowing whingers and trolls to have potshots and complain about other clubs?

IIRC free kicks are slightly negatively correlated with victory, i.e. teams win more often when they lose the free kick count.

But you'd still rather have them. So it's interesting to think about when/why/how they happen and what effect they have.

Also if you break down free kicks further, you get interesting results like this:

 

[PieLebo87]

IIRC free kicks are slightly negatively correlated with victory, i.e. teams win more often when they lose the free kick count.

But you'd still rather have them. So it's interesting to think about when/why/how they happen and what effect they have.

Also if you break down free kicks further, you get interesting results like this:

That table is interesting, and a far better talking point than just a simple free kick differential table. You can actually talk to this. Really insightful info there.

Interestingly, the only interstate sides evidently ‘favoured’ are WCE and Port. Brisbane, Sydney, GC and Adelaide don’t have a ‘home ground advantage’ when it comes to free kicks/‘noise or affirmation’.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

The Eagles need 4 free kicks to avoid recording a negative free kick differential for the first time in 18 years!

I'm not too concerned either way as you'll always have winners and losers. The West Coast numbers are staggering though when you see it put like that.

The thing that stands out to me though is the Bulldogs. Max, or any Bulldog fans, can you explain the sudden change in their numbers? 2011-2015 there were 5 years where the total spread between best and worst result was a grand total of 18, with a best result of +6. We then move to +112 and two further years of solid positive results.

Bulldogs fans, I'm not putting shade on results or anything, don't take it that way. Was there a significant shift in game style?

Cheers

 

[Deadpool]

I can't wait to play free kick differential finals

With the new, unique McIntyre "Top Seven" System.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Without weighing into the free count difference between clubs the info I would love to see (that does exist because media personal have posted screens before)

Are individual umpire free kicks paid for each team during games

 

[Substance]

AFL trying to gift the Dogs another undeserved premiership it seems.

 

[Tyler from Fremantle]

Post this over on thw Freo board, the cognitive dissonance would wipe put 3/4 of our board.

 

[telsor]

Only MCG based teams get guaranteed games at the MCG, a decided advantage in ground knowledge on Grand Final day (mitigated somewhat as a large portion of the crowd are unaligned). Smaller Vic, and all non-Vic, teams get anywhere down to zero MCG games in a year.
That said, it is the closest to neutral we have, the AFL should be ensuring every team plays there at least three times a year for ground familiarity though.

It's a nice theory, and I agree with it to a degree, but it falls down when you look at the practicalities.

There are 3 home teams (Melbourne, Richmond, Collingwood) and 4 others that play their big games there (Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Geelong).

I kinda doubt the last 4 would be thrilled to draw some of the lower drawing teams there, and it'd hopelessly bias both the fixture and the finances (of club and league) to require the first 3 to play ALL the low drawing teams there every year....and it's not like you can just add more games, because the ground is pretty much at capacity unless you want to sacrifice pitch quality.

Perhaps do it like the current 6/6/6 fixture....The top group get at least 3 games, the second tier 2, and the bottom clubs 1?

Mind you, it goes both ways....If clubs get required games at the MCG, then clubs should also be able to insist on having played at other grounds during the H&A season if they're to be required to play a final there (or at very least, have played there in the past 2 years).

 

[flipper83]

I'm not too concerned either way as you'll always have winners and losers. The West Coast numbers are staggering though when you see it put like that.

The thing that stands out to me though is the Bulldogs. Max, or any Bulldog fans, can you explain the sudden change in their numbers? 2011-2015 there were 5 years where the total spread between best and worst result was a grand total of 18, with a best result of +6. We then move to +112 and two further years of solid positive results.

Bulldogs fans, I'm not putting shade on results or anything, don't take it that way. Was there a significant shift in game style?

Cheers

Pretty much when we were crap we were negative free kick differential and when we were good (besides last 2 years) we were positive.
I'd be interested if that trend extended to other clubs but don't really have the time to investigate.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Pretty much when we were crap we were negative free kick differential and when we were good (besides last 2 years) we were positive.
I'd be interested if that trend extended to other clubs but don't really have the time to investigate.

Has to be related to some style though I'd think. We went big time negative FKD when we improved 17-18. Our previous EF exit patch we were slightly positive but playing a more open style.

 

[Coaster2012]

Now everyone can shut the * up about WC getting the rub of the green.

 

[Final Siren]

The Eagles need 4 free kicks to avoid recording a negative free kick differential for the first time in 18 years!

They were -4 at the end of Home & Away but went +1 and +8 in finals to continue the streak for another year!

 

[PerthBoy86]

Get ready for a debacle on Saturday arvo.

 

[PerthBoy86]

They were -4 at the end of Home & Away but went +1 and +8 in finals to continue the streak for another year!

Yet we actually had a lower differential in 2018 than Collingwood.

 

[Final Siren]

Get ready for a debacle on Saturday arvo.

On 2019 season averages, Collingwood should receive exactly 7 more free kicks than GWS.

Last time the Pies played the Giants, in Round 18, Collingwood won 10 more free kicks (24-14). That was up in Sydney, though, and generally teams get more free kicks at home, so the Pies are primed to deliver a real free kick thrashing this week.

 

[Final Siren]

Yet we actually had a lower differential in 2018 than Collingwood.

To be fair, everyone had a lower differential in 2018 than Collingwood.

 

[Farang83150]

Not at all surprised but thought the collingwood and freo counts would be higher.

 

[Roddy]

#freekickfootscray is alive, well, kicking, breathing and veritably bursting out with bountiful life and exuberance.
#freekickhawthorn is dead, buried, cremated and its ashes scattered across the MCG and stomped repeatedly by every member of the umpiring fraternity and the AFL itself. Or maybe it has just been proven a myth, an absolute load of utter, media and jealous opposition supporter-driven bollocks?

 

[kranky al]

The tennants at the G earn the right by playing at the most neutral ground in the game, being unable to train at their home ground and having no home ground advantage at all for up to 30% of their home games.

The definition of a neutral ground is one that neither of the clubs playing at are tenants of.

The mcg by the very definition of the word is the LEAST neutral ground in the afl as it has the most tenants and thus the biggest chance of a tenant meeting a non tenant there.

The most neutral ground in the afl is clearly adelaide oval :

it only has two clubs that have it as a home ground reducing the chances of tenant meeting non tenant

It is central - so the travel burden is equalised

 

[Werewolf]

On 2019 season averages, Collingwood should receive exactly 7 more free kicks than GWS.

Last time the Pies played the Giants, in Round 18, Collingwood won 10 more free kicks (24-14). That was up in Sydney, though, and generally teams get more free kicks at home, so the Pies are primed to deliver a real free kick thrashing this week.

And it didn't help them much as they got flogged! I think it's a case of some players are better at drawing free kicks and/or not giving away free kicks than others and some teams have more of those types than other teams. Rather than umpires setting out to favour certain teams.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Eagles free kicks are amazing

 

[Tiger2709]

The definition of a neutral ground is one that neither of the clubs playing at are tenants of.

The mcg by the very definition of the word is the LEAST neutral ground in the afl as it has the most tenants and thus the biggest chance of a tenant meeting a non tenant there.

The most neutral ground in the afl is clearly adelaide oval :

it only has two clubs that have it as a home ground reducing the chances of tenant meeting non tenant

It is central - so the travel burden is equalised

Okay class sit down, Kranky please try and focus.

neutral
/ˈnjuːtr(ə)l/
Learn to pronounce
adjective

1. 1.
   not supporting or helping either side in a conflict, disagreement, etc.; impartial.

Now with 5 tenants and many others that use the MCG as a second home, a ground where more clubs play at than any other, it is cleary by definition the most neutral of all grounds.
When any of these teams play each other it cleary does not support or help either side.

It is also the most central ground with similar distances for the 2 NSW, QLD and SA sides and only slightly further than Adelaide for the two WA sides.

Class dismissed.

 

[The Goon]

The definition of a neutral ground is one that neither of the clubs playing at are tenants of.

The mcg by the very definition of the word is the LEAST neutral ground in the afl as it has the most tenants and thus the biggest chance of a tenant meeting a non tenant there.

The most neutral ground in the afl is clearly adelaide oval :

it only has two clubs that have it as a home ground reducing the chances of tenant meeting non tenant

It is central - so the travel burden is equalised

.. and the definition of sophistry is this post.

 

[kranky al]

.. and the definition of sophistry is this post.

Au contraire

The very definition of sophistry is to try and deceive by using clever but false arguments


Nothing false in what ive written - a neutral venue by dictionary definition, is one that neither of the clubs are tenants of.

Wembley stadium is a neutral venue

The mcg on the other hand has the highest probability of having a non tenant face a tenant - invalidating neutrality.

Therefore it is the least neutral venue


To argue that the mcg is a neutral venue is sophistry as it contains a false argument

 

[Gavin Excell]

Au contraire

The very definition of sophistry is to try and deceive by using clever but false arguments


Nothing false in what ive written - a neutral venue is by dictionary definition, is one that neither of the clubs are tenants of.

Wembley stadium is a neutral venue

The mcg on the other hand has the highest probability of having a non tenant face a tenant - invalidating neutrality.

Therefore it is the least neutral venue


To argue that the mcg is a neutral venue is sophistry as it contains a false argument

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Eagles free kick frenzy