Free Kick differential over the last 15 years

[Scotland]

I know it's hard to admit that your top of the ladder team on their home ground only just beat a bottom 4 team with help from the umpiring but they're the facts, maybe we aren't as bad as people think or West Coast aren't as good as people think.

We only beat Carlton by 10 points and they are worse than you, though not by much. People can 'think' what they like but we are 10-1 and you are 1-9-1. You blame the umpires when we beat you by 13 and you blame them when we beat you by 103 so your opinion there isn't particularly valuable.

 

[Dazzler9]

I know it's hard to admit that your top of the ladder team on their home ground only just beat a bottom 4 team with help from the umpiring but they're the facts, maybe we aren't as bad as people think or West Coast aren't as good as people think.

That's certainly a more comforting narrative for you than getting flogged by a dominant team who decided to begin their bye week at 3/4 time. Whatever makes you feel good, I don't mind.

Enjoy the remainder of the season, you won't have to deal with that nasty Perth crowd again, and their Jedi mind manipulation of the umps.

 

[Kram]

We're simultaneously a bunch of Chardonnay sipping grannies who leave early and the most intimidating crowd in the country.

It's a pretty impressive achievement, really. I guess the umpires are intimidated by octogenarians with knitting needles and thermoses.

Every WC fan in Perth has heard (from Freo fans, obvs) that Freo fans are more passionate, Freo crowds are louder etc. plenty of times.

I said on our board that it can't just be the crowd noise, the Freo 2015 PF was the most loudest and intimidating crowd I've been in at the footy and we got a pretty ordinary run with the umps that night.

 

[Scotland]

never heard anyone say that on this side of the country. I think that's just a WC Freo thing

I assume you mean the Chardy sipping grannies bit because your own coach has had a good old whinge about the other bit.

 

[99cents]

Eagles fans celebrate their win over St Kilda

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

I know it's hard to admit that your top of the ladder team on their home ground only just beat a bottom 4 team with help from the umpiring but they're the facts, maybe we aren't as bad as people think or West Coast aren't as good as people think.

enjoy september mate

 

[Scotland]

I said on our board that it can't just be the crowd noise, the Freo 2015 PF was the most loudest and intimidating crowd I've been in at the footy and we got a pretty ordinary run with the umps that night.

I've been to plenty of Freo home derbies and a handful of other Freo games not involving WC and the atmosphere really isn't noticeably different.

Footy crowds are footy crowds wherever you go, with the exception of NSW/Qld where most of them don't know what's going on. And the higher proportion of mullets at Coll/Rich games and Range Rovers parked near Melbourne games at the G.

 

[Taylor]

how so?

If we take the 2012 season as a random choice, the expansion teams had a winning percentage of 11.36%.

Compared to teams like Sydney and Hawthorn that year who had winning percentages of 76%, the teams that played them more would suffer a much harder draw and the ladder position due to it would be skewed compared to a side that played GWS and GCS twice.

Sydney played: Hawthorn 3x, GWS + Collingwood + Adelaide + Geelong + Bulldogs x2 (that is four top four teams in that group)

That period where the expansion teams came in was a unique time of beltings, and those sides that played GWS and GCS twice had a double dip at it. That season's top eight was three games difference between 1st and 8th. Two teams on 68, two on 64, two on 60 and two on 56. Percentage is a factor.

I would argue that the ladder as a result of the draw doesn't represent true placing of a team, due to the above.

But since the statistic shown on the table was strictly the differential of free kicks across the years without motive or bias, it leaves the interpretation entirely up to the consumer.

 

[Ghossein]

If we take the 2012 season as a random choice, the expansion teams had a winning percentage of 11.36%.

Compared to teams like Sydney and Hawthorn that year who had winning percentages of 76%, the teams that played them more would suffer a much harder draw and the ladder position due to it would be skewed compared to a side that played GWS and GCS twice.

Sydney played: Hawthorn 3x, GWS + Collingwood + Adelaide + Geelong + Bulldogs x2 (that is four top four teams in that group)

That period where the expansion teams came in was a unique time of beltings, and those sides that played GWS and GCS twice had a double dip at it. That season's top eight was three games difference between 1st and 8th. Two teams on 68, two on 64, two on 60 and two on 56. Percentage is a factor.

I would argue that the ladder as a result of the draw doesn't represent true placing of a team, due to the above.

But since the statistic shown on the table was strictly the differential of free kicks across the years without motive or bias, it leaves the interpretation entirely up to the consumer.

I understand, however every team gets to play these teams once every season (~18), with the remaining (~5) being an advantage to a certain team. The sample size is 271 and we're talking about approximately 10-12 data points being very slightly off, if at all. Some teams might move up a ladder spot or two, while some wont move at all, so we're talking about 4% of the data points being distorted by around 10%. If I was doing it legitimately i'd probably correct for it but it's not going to have a major impact on the results of the analysis.

 

[DJMac]

This is what happens every time.
We get the correction

Poor Freo

 

[Happy Mastenator]

never heard anyone say that on this side of the country. I think that's just a WC Freo thing

It's partially reality, in that a lot of members signed up in the early 90's and kept their memberships rather than relinquish them, as you couldn't pick and choose seasons to sign up due to the waiting lists. 25 years on, they all 50+, and less boisterous.

Not sure how much the new stadium and expanded memberships have dropped the average age.

 

[99cents]

It's partially reality, in that a lot of members signed up in the early 90's and kept their memberships rather than relinquish them, as you couldn't pick and choose seasons to sign up due to the waiting lists. 25 years on, they all 50+, and less boisterous.

Not sure how much the new stadium and expanded memberships have dropped the average age.

makes sense. 25 years three flags three losing grannies.... not a bad run.

 

[Ghossein]

I know it's hard to admit that your top of the ladder team on their home ground only just beat a bottom 4 team with help from the umpiring but they're the facts, maybe we aren't as bad as people think or West Coast aren't as good as people think.

yeah if you take that one game in isolation of all others throughout the season we do look pretty bad dont we?

 

[dave123]

I know it's hard to admit that your top of the ladder team on their home ground only just beat a bottom 4 team with help from the umpiring but they're the facts, maybe we aren't as bad as people think or West Coast aren't as good as people think.

Whatever mate...

The ladder doesn't lie after 11 matches...

 

[Tony_Clifton]

It is analysis because it directly measures team success against the differential. Your qualm isn't technically against my analysis, it's against my methodology and operational definitions.

Conclusions also.
So if I think there is a problem with your methodology, operational definitions and conclusions then I technically don't have a problem with your analysis?

Here is why what you did irks me:

There is no correlation between free kicks and chance of winning.

This is part of a post that got 6 likes!

If you asked a 5yr old whether it is a good thing when a 50/50 call goes your way they will give you the correct answer. These adults have been unintentionally misled by yourself.

My issue with your response here is that "west coast get more than their fair share", implying that there is a supposed "fair" amount of free kicks that each team is entitled to. This is not the case. If you infringe on a rule then you give away a free kick. There is nothing in the AFL rules that stipulates that each team must hit a certain number of frees per game.

I agree with you that there is no amount of free kicks a team is entitled to. If Team A should have got 10 free kicks and 10 were paid, whilst Team B should have got 15 free kicks and 15 were paid then that is their fair share. Fixing up the numbers is the opposite of fair share. I should also clarify that fair share does not imply a 50 50 share.

West Coast may legitimately deserve more free kicks than the opposition, but the 900 figure is such an outlier it does beg the question whether they get more than their fair share. Which coincidentally is the whole point of this thread. It is not to kick a successful club from the West, it is to investigate the reason for the anomaly.

You also state that if you infringe on a rule you give away a free kick. This is not the case. It is actually when an umpire decides to blow his whistle when the free kick occurs.

I would prefer the West Coast supporter to say, "Yeah, so what if we get more free kicks? Makes up for the travel and the MCG. Besides you're just a jealous campaigner."
Because at least that would be true.

 

[Carringbush2010]

When lions won flags th media and fans said it was cola and hand outs
When the swans won flags ...ditto and academies and cola
When west coast won flags it was because of steroids and drugs

There’s a theme ...you just don’t see it

Yet in the 1970’s and 1980’s teams like hawthorn and Essendon won flags through chequebooks .....yes they purchased the best players and that’s why teams like bulldogs and saints could never win

Yet nothing is ever written about that ...

Again, you're looking through the pens and keyboards of the media and painting all of the fans with the same brush. Can you prove to me that all vic fans have a vic vs everyone else mindset? No you can't - you gobble up the media and any negative social media bs (bigfooty!) and come to your clouded conclusion.

 

[dave123]

Again, you're looking through the pens and keyboards of the media and painting all of the fans with the same brush. Can you prove to me that all vic fans have a vic vs everyone else mindset? No you can't - you gobble up the media and any negative social media bs (bigfooty!) and come to your clouded conclusion.

They wouldn't write it if they didn't believe fans would read it

 

[Scotland]

In a parallel universe where West Coast are punished for crowd behaviour and forced to play home games behind closed doors (like they do in UEFA competitions), what happens to the free kick tallies? The numbers say that the reason for the differential isn't so much frees for but frees against. If you take the crowd out of the equation do the umpires just award 10-15 frees per game to each side, on average, instead of 20-25 to the home side and 10-15 to the away?

 

[Ghossein]

Conclusions also.
So if I think there is a problem with your methodology, operational definitions and conclusions then I technically don't have a problem with your analysis?

what you said before didn't imply that the analysis was wrong, you implied that I was asking the wrong question

This is part of a post that got 6 likes!

If you asked a 5yr old whether it is a good thing when a 50/50 call goes your way they will give you the correct answer. These adults have been unintentionally misled by yourself.

I'm not sure what you mean by this? i'm misleading people by providing an analysis that goes beyond simply adding everything up and displaying it on a nice graph?

I agree with you that there is no amount of free kicks a team is entitled to. If Team A should have got 10 free kicks and 10 were paid, whilst Team B should have got 15 free kicks and 15 were paid then that is their fair share. Fixing up the numbers is the opposite of fair share. I should also clarify that fair share does not imply a 50 50 share.

West Coast may legitimately deserve more free kicks than the opposition, but the 900 figure is such an outlier it does beg the question whether they get more than their fair share. Which coincidentally is the whole point of this thread. It is not to kick a successful club from the West, it is to investigate the reason for the anomaly.

There's no doubt that some of the data around WC are outliers, but simply adding up the total over 15 years isn't really the right way to do it. You might think that this issue is not to kick west coast just as they're hitting some success, but when this trend has existed since 2003 and all of a sudden, as soon as we go top of the table, it's a widely talked about issue throughout the footy media landscape? We had a massive differential in the years where we were outside the 8 but now, all of a sudden, it's a major talking point. That doesn't seem odd to you?

You also state that if you infringe on a rule you give away a free kick. This is not the case. It is actually when an umpire decides to blow his whistle when the free kick occurs.

exactly. if we catch 10 people holding the ball, and the free stats at the end of the game show a 10 free differential in our favour, were we given a free ride by the umps? or did we just play better? this whole issues started around the fact that if you look at the stats post game WC tend to have a large amount of frees.

 

[Ghossein]

>be opposition team
>fly over to perth
>put 5 defenders on kennedy and instruct them to pull on his jumper at all times
>instruct ruckman to hold NN in any and all stoppages around the ground
>"omg why are they getting so many free kicks?"

 

[ep2018]

I said on our board that it can't just be the crowd noise, the Freo 2015 PF was the most loudest and intimidating crowd I've been in at the footy and we got a pretty ordinary run with the umps that night.

Up until Mayne missed a sitter that would have put you three goals up in the first whilst the Hawks were rattled.

 

[Kram]

Up until Mayne missed a sitter that would have put you three goals up in the first whilst the Hawks were rattled.

Mate I've never seen the life sucked out of so many people in a stadium in one single moment.

The worst thing is I just knew he would miss beforehand.

 

[Carringbush2010]

They wouldn't write it if they didn't believe fans would read it

Read yes, agree? The minority

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I'm not sure what you mean by this? i'm misleading people by providing an analysis that goes beyond simply adding everything up and displaying it on a nice graph?

People read true stuff you wrote and came to unjustified conclusions. The fellow I quoted seems to think free kicks are not correlated with chance of winning. Before he read your post he would have been closer to the truth. He followed your lead and came to the wrong place. Is this not mislead?

Your analysis was specific. It compared ladder position (was it end of the H&A or after finals?)
with the free kick differential. It had an interesting result that showed no correlation between the two.

So what can we draw from this analysis?

It sure looks like evidence that winning the free kick count does not influence your position on the ladder. If winning the free kick count does not influence your position on the ladder then this whole beat up is a slur that is based on a falsehood. You'd be right to feel agrieved if you believed this.
Is this your position?

The big red flag question is whether West Coast get unduly favoured by the umpires or is the outlier just a quirk of playing style and personnel over the last 15 years? Your analysis did not address this.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

, but when this trend has existed since 2003 and all of a sudden, as soon as we go top of the table, it's a widely talked about issue throughout the footy media landscape? We had a massive differential in the years where we were outside the 8 but now, all of a sudden, it's a major talking point. That doesn't seem odd to you?

Seems about right, they weren't threatened by you before. They always thought both teams had a huge homeground advantage but were willing to accept it when you weren't a threat. They probably chalked it up to equalisation for the MCG deal.

if we catch 10 people holding the ball, and the free stats at the end of the game show a 10 free differential in our favour, were we given a free ride by the umps? or did we just play better? this whole issues started around the fact that if you look at the stats post game WC tend to have a large amount of frees.

All other things being equal you should have a legitimate and well earned +10 differential.