Free Kick Differential

[Patty_Moz]

A bit of talk about this lately after the Crows vs Bulldogs game. Tried to find a similar thread but couldn't.

So thought I'd look at the free kick stats over the years cos i was convinced Freo would have the worst differential by far. Pulled the stats from footywire which had free for / frees against from 1998-2016 (not sure how accurate they are).



It turns out I was wrong Freo in the bottom half but Brisbane and Melbourne get screwed. And **** WC they get their balls polished by the umps - more than double the differential of any other club over that time. Light blue also seems like a popular colour.

I think more attention should be paid to this and umpires that tend to have bias or are more influenced by crowds should be made aware or moved on.

 

[Lensen]

You can draw up a table of goals that goal umpires have given for each team and it won't be even either. It's not evidence of any umpire bias at all

 

[xLeCrAs2x]

Fremantle 0-9

Stop being sour.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Freo fan posts about FK differential... Surprise surprise it shows WCE as having the best run with the umps

 

[Omega Blue]

What i hate seeing is the umpites artificially squaring the ledger. If a frees there pay it if not put the whistle away

 

[wedgetail]

Surprise surprise it shows WCE as having the best run with the umps

what you are saying is that we should play a dirtier style of footy?

 

[Augustine]

Free kick differential rarely means anything in isolated games and my pet hate is people who go on about it to demonstrate how robbed they were. So I was ready to dismiss the OP however, over a period that long that West Coast having such a higher differential than others is fascinating. I don't know how to explain it, surely it shouldn't be that dramatically different.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Free kick differential rarely means anything in isolated games and my pet hate is people who go on about it to demonstrate how robbed they were. So I was ready to dismiss the OP however, over a period that long that West Coast having such a higher differential than others is fascinating. I don't know how to explain it, surely it shouldn't be that dramatically different.

Better tackling technique?

 

[Glorious couch life]

It'll be Footscray's turn to shine when McLeans are showing...

 

[Forward Press]

Free kick differential rarely means anything in isolated games and my pet hate is people who go on about it to demonstrate how robbed they were. So I was ready to dismiss the OP however, over a period that long that West Coast having such a higher differential than others is fascinating. I don't know how to explain it, surely it shouldn't be that dramatically different.

Considering we only average 0.1 more free kicks for than the next highest, and aren't the lowest free kicks against, I'd suggest statistical aberration.

Or Luke Shuey and Adam Selwood and ducking and shrugging and booing if it makes people feel better.

 

[StingBitten]

Love ya work OP re Weagles.

DEATH TO SHELBYVILLE!

 

[wedgetail]

Free kick differential rarely means anything in isolated games and my pet hate is people who go on about it to demonstrate how robbed they were. So I was ready to dismiss the OP however, over a period that long that West Coast having such a higher differential than others is fascinating. I don't know how to explain it, surely it shouldn't be that dramatically different.

the table is misleading. ignore the absolute numbers and look at the averages. our average FF is at the top end, but not by much. our advantage is average frees against, second lowest in the league and again not by much, but enough. that is professionalism, not a conspiracy.

although the lemmings and their newspapers love this stuff so play on.

 

[Augustine]

Considering we only average 0.1 more free kicks for than the next highest, and aren't the lowest free kicks against, I'd suggest statistical aberration.

Or Luke Shuey and Adam Selwood and ducking and shrugging and booing if it makes people feel better.

Yeah I think you're right. Well at least the thread has taught me that over time every team averages between 16.5 and 19 free kicks for and against per game. Damning from the grand conspiracy theorists who claim the AFL is really the WWE.

 

[Tas]

There are no stats for it, but I am curious as to free kicks for effective tackles vs free kicks being awarded for being incorrectly tackled. If you derive a lot of your free kicks from good tackling that isn't as bad as getting a lot of free kicks because your players duck.

 

[believe_it]

You can draw up a table of goals that goal umpires have given for each team and it won't be even either. It's not evidence of any umpire bias at all

Not a valid comparison. Goal umpires don't use interpretation. There is no interpretation of the physical path of an object. A ball either goes through the goal or not.

 

[Furn2]

When people say the free kick count doesnt have to even they are wrong over a period this long.

In a game sure, one team can offend more than the other but over a long period like 10 years there shouldn't be a statistically significant difference without a reason for that result.

Whether that's bias, playing for frees or better disipline or whatever but it isn't just down to chance.

 

[believe_it]

Considering we only average 0.1 more free kicks for than the next highest, and aren't the lowest free kicks against, I'd suggest statistical aberration.

Or Luke Shuey and Adam Selwood and ducking and shrugging and booing if it makes people feel better.

No you average 0.8 free kicks per game more than the second highest. The differential for the Eagles is +2.1 free kicks per game - the second highest in the league is +1.1. It's a staggering difference to be held over such a long period.

 

[DarkSaint]

Would be interesting to find the stats of free kick differential between Eagles at Home and when they play away.

 

[mightymouse75]

It's piss weak. Dean cox used to wave his arms at the umpire and get a free . Then they recruited the ducks in shuie/selwood /hams and mister floppy head jack darling. #freekickWestcoast though hawthorn has taken that mantle recently.

 

[mightymouse75]

Would be interesting to find the stats of free kick differential between Eagles at Home and when they play away.

Imagine it would be even more lopsided.

 

[lamaros]

That is actually a huge difference and cannot be accounted for by general varience.

If the figures are correct.

 

[Scotland]

So over the course of 18/19 seasons the average West Coast free kick count is 18.8-16.7, so 19-17 and the average Brisbane free kick count is 17.1-18.2 so 17-18.

And people think this is noteworthy?

 

[Roddy]

The funniest thing about this, Bigfooty-wise, is that you go onto any of the ridiculous #freekickhawthorn threads and Eagles fans will be all over it, whining about a few games we got the rub of the green in in 2016, when they're the biggest umpy mummy's boy team in the history of the AFL.

 

[WCE_phil]

We have had a very good run at having some of the best rucks in the league for an extended period of time. From game to game over a season a large part of free kick differential i have found comes down to ruckmen and their style. We went gardine into cox into naitanui. Also in the last 6 years we also statistically have some of the lowest tackle numbers in the league. A lot of our style of play has been designed around harassing the opponent and causing pressure rather than lots of tackling. Also looking at some of the teams down the bottom end of the table the swans, hawks and the lions during the strong years were known for being very hard, aggressive teams that played on the boundaries of the rules. Unsociable football as the hawks like to call it. Probably the one that has suprised me the most is north as i'd always looked at them as a hard at it, contested type of team that was prone to giving away a few too many free kicks. Surely the original king flopper in Lindsay thomas wouldn't have been enough to correct that. However they have had good rucks for quite a lot of that period as well.

You'd have to say there are a few reasons there with also a large part being statistical anomaly.

 

[donpyke92]

There are some Eagles fans that will lament that we don't play 'unsociable footy' enough