Analysis Fremantle's point deficit - What happens if they get pick 1..?

[Dockeroo]

On a separate note, a question for the draft experts that I can’t seem to find a definitive answer for. If a team finished last and gets pick 1 in the draft order, but has a points deficit from the previous year of 265 (like Fremantle this year), do they automatically slide back to pick 2?
Put simply, is it impossible to receive pick 1 if a team is carrying a points deficit of even 1 point?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

On a separate note, a question for the draft experts that I can’t seem to find a definitive answer for. If a team finished last and gets pick 1 in the draft order, but has a points deficit from the previous year of 265 (like Fremantle this year), do they automatically slide back to pick 2?
Put simply, is it impossible to receive pick 1 if a team is carrying a points deficit of even 1 point?

Pick 1 is 3000 points, pick 2 is 2517, so there's plenty of room to soak up a deficit before slipping back.

Edit: this is actually wrong.

 

[flipper83]

On a separate note, a question for the draft experts that I can’t seem to find a definitive answer for. If a team finished last and gets pick 1 in the draft order, but has a points deficit from the previous year of 265 (like Fremantle this year), do they automatically slide back to pick 2?
Put simply, is it impossible to receive pick 1 if a team is carrying a points deficit of even 1 point?

Also any points deficit comes out of the pick from the round a bid was made so a deficit on a 4th round bid would be taken off the 4th round pick the following year.

 

[briztoon]

On a separate note, a question for the draft experts that I can’t seem to find a definitive answer for. If a team finished last and gets pick 1 in the draft order, but has a points deficit from the previous year of 265 (like Fremantle this year), do they automatically slide back to pick 2?
Put simply, is it impossible to receive pick 1 if a team is carrying a points deficit of even 1 point?

Pick 1 is 3000 points, pick 2 is 2517, so there's plenty of room to soak up a deficit before slipping back.

Unfortunately that’s not how it works.

Twomey has reported in the past, that if a team does not have the full value or more, in points to equal a picks point value, then they skip one spot in the draft.

So yes, in such a scenario, Fremantle would slide from pick 1 to pick 2, even if they have more points than pick two’s value. Because they don’t have the points value of pick 1.

 

[Dockeroo]

Unfortunately that’s not how it works.

Twomey has reported in the past, that if a team does not have the full value or more, in points to equal a picks point value, then they skip one spot in the draft.

So yes, in such a scenario, Fremantle would slide from pick 1 to pick 2, even if they have more points than pick two’s value. Because they don’t have the points value of pick 1.

Thanks for the reply. There seems to be quite a bit of confusion about this. Here’s an extra layer of complication for you.
say Adelaide finish last and freo 17th. Crows have pick 1 and freo pick 2nat seasons end. At trade week, Brad crouch departs Adelaide for a $900k per year deal elsewhere as a FA. Crows then get a first round compensation pick after their first, which means they now have pick 1, pick 2 and freo slide to pick 3.
but the deficit (265 points) at pick 3 would push freo back 2 spots to pick 5?
The deficit applied at pick 2 not push freo back at all in the order.
My question is, will the AFL apply the deficit to the draft position before or after the free agency pick is allocated?

 

[briztoon]

Thanks for the reply. There seems to be quite a bit of confusion about this. Here’s an extra layer of complication for you.
say Adelaide finish last and freo 17th. Crows have pick 1 and freo pick 2nat seasons end. At trade week, Brad crouch departs Adelaide for a $900k per year deal elsewhere as a FA. Crows then get a first round compensation pick after their first, which means they now have pick 1, pick 2 and freo slide to pick 3.
but the deficit (265 points) at pick 3 would push freo back 2 spots to pick 5?
The deficit applied at pick 2 not push freo back at all in the order.
My question is, will the AFL apply the deficit to the draft position before or after the free agency pick is allocated?

Deficits are paid for, before the beginning of trade week, so clubs are able to trade such picks, and opposing teams have a fixed knowledge of what they are trading for.

If Freo finish 17, their pick 2 will be pushed back to pick 3 anyway. And the team that finished 16th will now have pick 2.

So if Adelaide receive a pick 2 compensation pick, your first pick will only slide back to pick 4, regardless of the points before hand, at that point.

 

[briztoon]

Thanks for the reply. There seems to be quite a bit of confusion about this. Here’s an extra layer of complication for you.
say Adelaide finish last and freo 17th. Crows have pick 1 and freo pick 2nat seasons end. At trade week, Brad crouch departs Adelaide for a $900k per year deal elsewhere as a FA. Crows then get a first round compensation pick after their first, which means they now have pick 1, pick 2 and freo slide to pick 3.
but the deficit (265 points) at pick 3 would push freo back 2 spots to pick 5?
The deficit applied at pick 2 not push freo back at all in the order.
My question is, will the AFL apply the deficit to the draft position before or after the free agency pick is allocated?

As I said in my first reply, you need the full value of a pick to keep that spot in the draft.

If you have pick 2 and have to pay off a deficit, you will automatically be pushed back to pick 3, even though you still have more points than pick 3’s value.

Because you no longer have the full value of pick 2.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Unfortunately that’s not how it works.

Twomey has reported in the past, that if a team does not have the full value or more, in points to equal a picks point value, then they skip one spot in the draft.

So yes, in such a scenario, Fremantle would slide from pick 1 to pick 2, even if they have more points than pick two’s value. Because they don’t have the points value of pick 1.

I stand corrected. Given whoever's second doesn't have the points either though that is typically-bizarre AFL reasoning.

 

[Mego Red]

Pick 1 is 3000 points, pick 2 is 2517, so there's plenty of room to soak up a deficit before slipping back.

That's not how it works.

Pick 1 costs 3000 points. If Freo finish last, they'll need to deduct a point deficit, so they won't HAVE 3000 points.

 

[Lore]

That's not how it works.

Pick 1 costs 3000 points. If Freo finish last, they'll need to deduct a point deficit, so they won't HAVE 3000 points.

As long as they have more points than the club with pick 2, they'll still pick first. You can call it pick 1.5 if you like..

 

[Dockeroo]

As long as they have more points than the club with pick 2, they'll still pick first. You can call it pick 1.5 if you like..

Are you sure about this? There is a clear difference of opinion between certain posters on this and I’ve never seen anything official from the AFL as evidence either way?

 

[GWS Goose]

That's not how it works.

Pick 1 costs 3000 points. If Freo finish last, they'll need to deduct a point deficit, so they won't HAVE 3000 points.

I've read this from a few posters, and I assume it is correct, but it doesn't make sense to me. If they still have more points than the next pick, it should still be their selection.

 

[Lore]

Are you sure about this? There is a clear difference of opinion between certain posters on this and I’ve never seen anything official from the AFL as evidence either way?

There isn't a specific rule to fall back on that we are aware of, but if you check the bidding system information that explains how it all works, the pick slots in wherever it fits.

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

So for example, page 9 deals with a hypothetical bid matched for Isaac Heeney. The deficit at the last change is 80 points, and they have pick 57, which is worth 182 points.

182-80=102.

Pick 57 moves back to pick 64, according to page 9, even though Pick 64 is ordinarily worth 101 points, and our pick 57 is worth 102. So the pick 57 slots in ahead of the original pick 64.

The same principle is applied in all of the other examples in that document, with the pick slotted in ahead of the original pick with the next highest number of points.

If it comes to it there is no way of knowing what the AFL will choose to do, as they seem to make it up as they go along and we don't have access to the document that they sent to all the clubs that explains all of the little details of how things work. But if Fremantle has pick 1 and subtracts a deficit that leaves them with more points than the value of pick 2, then according to the known principles, it should still be pick 1, or 'pick 1.5' if you like.

The other posters whose opinions I would respect on this point are Dylan82 and dlanod. GUMBLETRON and briztoon are also reasonably well versed in the inner workings of the draft, and I've had very interesting conversations with them on the finer points in the past.

 

[briztoon]

There isn't a specific rule to fall back on that we are aware of, but if you check the bidding system information that explains how it all works, the pick slots in wherever it fits.

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

So for example, page 9 deals with a hypothetical bid matched for Isaac Heeney. The deficit at the last change is 80 points, and they have pick 57, which is worth 182 points.

182-80=102.

Pick 57 moves back to pick 64, according to page 9, even though Pick 64 is ordinarily worth 101 points, and our pick 57 is worth 102. So the pick 57 slots in ahead of the original pick 64.

The same principle is applied in all of the other examples in that document, with the pick slotted in ahead of the original pick with the next highest number of points.

If it comes to it there is no way of knowing what the AFL will choose to do, as they seem to make it up as they go along and we don't have access to the document that they sent to all the clubs that explains all of the little details of how things work. But if Fremantle has pick 1 and subtracts a deficit that leaves them with more points than the value of pick 2, then according to the known principles, it should still be pick 1, or 'pick 1.5' if you like.

The other posters whose opinions I would respect on this point are Dylan82 and dlanod. GUMBLETRON and briztoon are also reasonably well versed in the inner workings of the draft, and I've had very interesting conversations with them on the finer points in the past.

My information is directly from Cal Twomey. I thought it was from an article originally, but now I believe I heard him explain it on one of his podcasts.

It will take a while to re-listen to everything since last years draft.

 

[dlanod]

But if Fremantle has pick 1 and subtracts a deficit that leaves them with more points than the value of pick 2, then according to the known principles, it should still be pick 1, or 'pick 1.5' if you like.

Yep. Pick 1.

I'm not sure where the confusion is. Look at it the other way - if Fremantle's deficit taken off pick 1 leaves them with a pick worth 2,600 points (for example) where do posters who don't think this is the case expect that pick to move to? Pick 2 is 2,517. How is the 2,600 points going to be worth less than 2,517?

 

[briztoon]

Yep. Pick 1.

I'm not sure where the confusion is. Look at it the other way - if Fremantle's deficit taken off pick 1 leaves them with a pick worth 2,600 points (for example) where do posters who don't think this is the case expect that pick to move to? Pick 2 is 2,517. How is the 2,600 points going to be worth less than 2,517?

As I mentioned, Twomey said, for a team to have pick 1, they must have the full points value of pick 1. i.e. 3000 points.

 

[briztoon]

Ok Lore & dlanod found it. On the Freo website, from Peter Bell himself.

Bell: Frederick signing tops off historic National Draft haul

Fremantle have set themselves up for the future with their four selections in the 2019 NAB National Draft, according to general manager of football Peter Bell.

www.fremantlefc.com.au

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Aaaannddd down the rabbit hole we go.

How good is the AFL, national, multi-million (billion??) dollar sporting competition where the rules are vague, hard to find and often deliberately hidden

 

[dlanod]

As I mentioned, Twomey said, for a team to have pick 1, they must have the full points value of pick 1. i.e. 3000 points.

Ok @Lore & @dlanod found it. On the Freo website, from Peter Bell himself.

It wouldn't be the first time a club was wrong. They might be right, but how does it make sense that the team meant to be picking second get pick 1 when they only have 2,517 points? That's even more less than 3,000.

 

[briztoon]

It wouldn't be the first time a club was wrong. They might be right, but how does it make sense that the team meant to be picking second get pick 1 when they only have 2,517 points? That's even more less than 3,000.

Since they get bumped up to pick 1, I presume (which is dangerous) that they will be given the 3000 points that goes with pick 1.

As I’ve repeatedly mentioned, Twomey explained this in one of his podcasts.

 

[GWS Goose]

It wouldn't be the first time a club was wrong. They might be right, but how does it make sense that the team meant to be picking second get pick 1 when they only have 2,517 points? That's even more less than 3,000.

This is exactly my thoughts.

 

[GWS Goose]

Since they get bumped up to pick 1, I presume (which is dangerous) that they will be given the 3000 points that goes with pick 1.

As I’ve repeatedly mentioned, Twomey explained this in one of his podcasts.

It may be both correct and wrong.
It is definitely wrong even if it is correct

 

[Dockeroo]

The AFL will just make it up when the season is over. The vaguaries and conjecture around what will happen is a bit of a joke. In any case I expect freo to pick up a few wins in WA later in the season and avoid the spoon, making this debate immaterial!

 

[Lore]

Ok Lore & dlanod found it. On the Freo website, from Peter Bell himself.

Bell: Frederick signing tops off historic National Draft haul

Fremantle have set themselves up for the future with their four selections in the 2019 NAB National Draft, according to general manager of football Peter Bell.

www.fremantlefc.com.au

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I wouldn't assume based on what Peter Bell is saying there that they'd actually sat there and figured it out. If they had, they'd know that the last pick in round 1 in 2020 is pick 19 and will slide back to 30, owing to GC's priority pick that is slotted into the middle of the first round. I think what he's trying to say is that a later pick will slide further than an earlier pick, and gave a couple of examples from the top of his head.

I'm trying to find Twomey talking about it but no luck yet.

Pick 1 could conceivably become Pick 2 if the deficit is greater than the difference, so it's not impossible that it would slide, but they would need a bigger deficit than they currently have for that to happen. As it stands, Pick 1 minus the current deficit of 265 points is still the most valuable pick in the draft, and would still accord the holder the first selection in the draft.

The logical conclusion of a system that applies a pick demotion regardless of the size of the deficit is that even if the deficit was 15 points (which is the difference between pick 18 and a discounted pick 13), the club would be docked by 32 times more than it owed, which is ludicrous.

It would make more sense to apply the deficit to the next pick/s after the one that was matched, so their next pick after pick 9, if they can't just "dock" it from pick 1.

 

[Dockeroo]

I wouldn't assume based on what Peter Bell is saying there that they'd actually sat there and figured it out. If they had, they'd know that the last pick in round 1 in 2020 is pick 19 and will slide back to 30, owing to GC's priority pick that is slotted into the middle of the first round. I think what he's trying to say is that a later pick will slide further than an earlier pick, and gave a couple of examples from the top of his head.

I'm trying to find Twomey talking about it but no luck yet.

Pick 1 could conceivably become Pick 2 if the deficit is greater than the difference, so it's not impossible that it would slide, but they would need a bigger deficit than they currently have for that to happen. As it stands, Pick 1 minus the current deficit of 265 points is still the most valuable pick in the draft, and would still accord the holder the first selection in the draft.

The logical conclusion of a system that applies a pick demotion regardless of the size of the deficit is that even if the deficit was 15 points (which is the difference between pick 18 and a discounted pick 13), the club would be docked by 32 times more than it owed, which is ludicrous.

It would make more sense to apply the deficit to the next pick/s after the one that was matched, so their next pick after pick 9, if they can't just "dock" it from pick 1.

I’d want a bit more solid evidence than a quote from peter bell a few minutes after last years draft. The logic Lore presented around a side suffering almost a 600 point penalty if they had a deficit of just one point makes a mockery of the whole thing. On this issue, I genuinely think no one has a bloody clue what might happen!