Toast Freo the least experienced team this year (by a big margin)

[tonygeeks]

Its really only Fyfe who has been a bit injury prone. Unfortunately the way he plays its hard to avoid.

Walters , Shill and Blakley are probably trending in the wrong direction

Bennell , Apeness and Sandi firmly in the ' very unlikely to contribute bin


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[its free real estate]

A question about the youth argument, perhaps something only Ron The Bear can answer, but what is Lyon's win-loss rate when his side is the youngest of the two teams? Versus when his is the oldest, and against the league's average.

 

[Ron The Bear]

A question about the youth argument, perhaps something only Ron The Bear can answer, but what is Lyon's win-loss rate when his side is the youngest of the two teams? Versus when his is the oldest, and against the league's average.

Average age of all teams, record in all games, record with older teams, record with younger teams, difference b/w old & young teams

Coach|Avg Age|P|W|L|D|Win%||P|W|L|D|Win%||P|W|L|D|Win%||Diff
\Fagan, Chris|23.88|43|10|33|0|23.26||6|5|1|0|83.33||37|5|32|0|13.51||+69.82
\Beveridge, Luke|24.37|92|52|40|0|56.52||23|20|3|0|86.96||69|32|37|0|46.38||+40.58
\Hardwick, Damien|24.47|203|109|92|2|54.19||63|51|12|0|80.95||140|58|80|2|42.14||+38.81
\Richardson, Alan R.|24.91|110|37|71|2|34.55||50|27|23|0|54.00||60|10|48|2|18.33||+35.67
\Dew, Stuart|23.94|21|4|17|0|19.05||2|1|1|0|50.00||19|3|16|0|15.79||+34.21
\Goodwin, Simon|24.75|44|25|19|0|56.82||14|11|3|0|78.57||30|14|16|0|46.67||+31.90
\Scott, Brad|25.36|200|102|98|0|51.00||123|77|46|0|62.60||77|25|52|0|32.47||+30.13
\Cameron, Leon|24.18|114|62|49|3|55.70||34|25|8|1|75.00||80|37|41|2|47.50||+27.50
\Lyon, Ross|25.70|283|163|115|5|58.48||204|131|69|4|65.20||79|32|46|1|41.14||+24.06
\Clarkson, Alastair|25.15|326|204|120|2|62.88||180|132|47|1|73.61||146|72|73|1|49.66||+23.95
\Scott, Chris|26.02|188|130|56|2|69.68||149|110|37|2|74.50||39|20|19|0|51.28||+23.21
\Buckley, Nathan|24.66|157|84|72|1|53.82||53|35|18|0|66.04||104|49|54|1|47.60||+18.44
\Simpson, Adam|25.77|114|72|41|1|63.60||78|53|24|1|68.59||36|19|17|0|52.78||+15.81
\Hinkley, Ken|24.83|136|77|59|0|56.62||62|40|22|0|64.52||74|37|37|0|50.00||+14.52
\Longmire, John|25.78|194|131|61|2|68.04||148|104|42|2|70.95||46|27|19|0|58.70||+12.25
\Worsfold, John|24.43|347|175|170|2|50.72||122|67|54|1|55.33||225|108|116|1|48.22||+7.11
\Bolton, Brendon|24.87|70|20|50|0|28.57||31|10|21|0|32.26||39|10|29|0|25.64||+6.62
\Pyke, Don|25.47|70|45|24|1|65.00||43|27|15|1|63.95||27|18|9|0|66.67||-2.71
\||||||||||||||||||||
\Totals|25.05|2712|1502|1187|23|55.81||1385|926|446|13|67.33||1327|576|741|10|43.78||+23.55

 

[its free real estate]

Great stats Ron The Bear, thanks.

So Lyon is around the league average (slightly below) for win-loss rate when it comes to fielding sides both older and younger. Like Longmire and Chris Scott, he overwhelmingly fields sides older than his opponents, but they have better than average win rates when their sides are younger than their opposition.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Great stats Ron The Bear, thanks.

So Lyon is around the league average when it comes to fielding sides both older and younger. Like Longmire and Chris Scott, he overwhelmingly fields sides older than his opponents, but they have better than average win rates when their sides are younger than their opposition.

Yeah, but neither Scott nor Longmire have been in the position Lyon is in now.

When the team's age is falling, it's hard to win.

When the team is conceding 1+ years per player, it's hard to win.

When the team is younger than ~24, it's hard to win.

 

[Joao]

Its really only Fyfe who has been a bit injury prone. Unfortunately the way he plays its hard to avoid.

Shilly seems to be the king of soft tissue these days which is sad

 

[PapaJ]

Shilly seems to be the king of soft tissue these days which is sad

Yeah, SHill has not had a good run at it for a few seasons now, and it shows. Not only in his ability to get on the park, but when he's there, he's not quite playing to his potential either. In fact, without looking at it closely, I'm fairly sure the past few seasons at least he starts strongly, usually amongst our best and slowly deteriorates as the season goes on, nearly always injury related.

Not the thread for it I suppose, but not sure why coaches/medical staff don't pick up on this and just start these sorts of players (e.g. Sandi) pre-season later and introduce them later into the AFL season too so it helps balance the team a bit. Especially with so many young players, they can't run out a season either, so play them earlier and have the older/injury prone guys more up for it later in the year, or something along those lines anyway.

 

[mightymouse75]

Yeah, SHill has not had a good run at it for a few seasons now, and it shows. Not only in his ability to get on the park, but when he's there, he's not quite playing to his potential either. In fact, without looking at it closely, I'm fairly sure the past few seasons at least he starts strongly, usually amongst our best and slowly deteriorates as the season goes on, nearly always injury related.

Not the thread for it I suppose, but not sure why coaches/medical staff don't pick up on this and just start these sorts of players (e.g. Sandi) pre-season later and introduce them later into the AFL season too so it helps balance the team a bit. Especially with so many young players, they can't run out a season either, so play them earlier and have the older/injury prone guys more up for it later in the year, or something along those lines anyway.

You are hired

 

[apuchar]

Yeah, SHill has not had a good run at it for a few seasons now, and it shows. Not only in his ability to get on the park, but when he's there, he's not quite playing to his potential either. In fact, without looking at it closely, I'm fairly sure the past few seasons at least he starts strongly, usually amongst our best and slowly deteriorates as the season goes on, nearly always injury related.

Not the thread for it I suppose, but not sure why coaches/medical staff don't pick up on this and just start these sorts of players (e.g. Sandi) pre-season later and introduce them later into the AFL season too so it helps balance the team a bit. Especially with so many young players, they can't run out a season either, so play them earlier and have the older/injury prone guys more up for it later in the year, or something along those lines anyway.

Good point, but we want early wins, so best available.

 

[wayToGo_]

Good point, but we want early wins, so best available.

Do we though? Brisbane started like a train wreck this season and finished strong and everyone is singing their praises. We started strong and crawled to the finish line and we're apparently a club in crisis.

 

[apuchar]

Do we though? Brisbane started like a train wreck this season and finished strong and everyone is singing their praises. We started strong and crawled to the finish line and we're apparently a club in crisis.

Hopefully our young guys will be better with a 2nd pre-season and don't fade quite so dramatically. But yes, I understand what you are saying. Just can't see us doing it.

 

[Stilgar]

Yeah, but neither Scott nor Longmire have been in the position Lyon is in now.

When the team's age is falling, it's hard to win.

When the team is conceding 1+ years per player, it's hard to win.

When the team is younger than ~24, it's hard to win.

Thanks for that Ron.

Geez that backfired on the "Ross is just a useless coach" agenda a bit

 

[Dockers v Channel7West]

Yeah, SHill has not had a good run at it for a few seasons now, and it shows. Not only in his ability to get on the park, but when he's there, he's not quite playing to his potential either. In fact, without looking at it closely, I'm fairly sure the past few seasons at least he starts strongly, usually amongst our best and slowly deteriorates as the season goes on, nearly always injury related.

Not the thread for it I suppose, but not sure why coaches/medical staff don't pick up on this and just start these sorts of players (e.g. Sandi) pre-season later and introduce them later into the AFL season too so it helps balance the team a bit. Especially with so many young players, they can't run out a season either, so play them earlier and have the older/injury prone guys more up for it later in the year, or something along those lines anyway.

Hill great at home but travels as well as Guiness
Play him every second week and save for end of year.

 

[Dockers v Channel7West]

Great stats

Our youthfull team whaterever stats you look at indicate we should benefit hugely from the next pre season and it shows that RTB has put youth ahead of results this year.
Which he said he would do
That is why I think he deserves next year and I am more than hopefull of positive change and development. I like the look of our list
However
I will jump ship at end of next year if the Negatorians are right

 

[beetz]

This average age argument is a bit deceiving and kind of a waste of time. There is no magic number, plus the difference is maximum 2 years between the youngest team and the oldest. Also, players such as Sandilands who could probably play until he's 40 is a lot different to a midfielder for example (unless you're Brent Harvey).

Lesser average age shouldn't be an excuse for some of the performances this year imo.

 

[Ron The Bear]

This average age argument is a bit deceiving and kind of a waste of time. There is no magic number, plus the difference is maximum 2 years between the youngest team and the oldest. Also, players such as Sandilands who could probably play until he's 40 is a lot different to a midfielder for example (unless you're Brent Harvey).

Lesser average age shouldn't be an excuse for some of the performances this year imo.

Record of older teams in all games

Age diff|Played|W|L|D|Win %
\< 0.5|4843|2465|2333|45|51.36
\0.5 - 1|4122|2274|1806|42|55.68
\1 - 1.5|2865|1679|1152|34|59.20
\1.5 - 2|1806|1140|647|19|63.65
\2 - 2.5|977|648|318|11|66.89
\2.5 - 3|482|335|143|4|69.92
\> 3|312|247|62|3|79.65

That's a pretty compelling linear relationship over 122 seasons, when nothing else is known about the two teams.

 

[Taylor]

I think the only reliable conclusion to draw from the data is that a group of younger players is more likely to have average to poor footballers in it than an equal number of older players, the time between finds that out. Physically the older players can deliver their ability more consistently for a longer time but the game has moved beyond effort wins now.

 

[its free real estate]

I think the only reliable conclusion to draw from the data is that a group of younger players is more likely to have average to poor footballers in it than an equal number of older players, the time between finds that out. Physically the older players can deliver their ability more consistently for a longer time but the game has moved beyond effort wins now.

Yeah, this. Time is a sorting process. A team with an average age of ~26 should be better than a team with an average age of 23, because the likelihood that a 26 year old is worse than a 23 year old listed AFL player is pretty low. Obviously when a side gets too old it runs the risk of being slow and injury prone.

Ron The Bear correctly notes that our performances this year are understandable in the context of how young we are, but that doesn't change the fact that we were the older team in nearly every single game in 2016, and went 4-18. That was truly a diabolical year, and it exposed how bad our list management had been.

That year should have seen a clean out of the football department - including sacking Bond and Lloyd. It was entirely foreseeable what would happen, and we still had blokes past their use by date in the side this year.

This argument is crap:

Thanks for that Ron.

Geez that backfired on the "Ross is just a useless coach" agenda a bit

Is Ross not capable of seeing the same thing? Why did we have the oldest team (some older by 2-3 years) in 2016, and lose?

 

[Nothing]

Yeah, this. Time is a sorting process. A team with an average age of ~26 should be better than a team with an average age of 23, because the likelihood that a 26 year old is worse than a 23 year old listed AFL player is pretty low. Obviously when a side gets too old it runs the risk of being slow and injury prone.

Ron The Bear correctly notes that our performances this year are understandable in the context of how young we are, but that doesn't change the fact that we were the older team in nearly every single game in 2016, and went 4-18. That was truly a diabolical year, and it exposed how bad our list management had been.

That year should have seen a clean out of the football department - including sacking Bond and Lloyd. It was entirely foreseeable what would happen, and we still had blokes past their use by date in the side this year.

This argument is crap:



Is Ross not capable of seeing the same thing? Why did we have the oldest team (some older by 2-3 years) in 2016, and lose?

After starting 2016 trying for a flag we didn't have the younger players on the list to reduce the average age. Having said that, there was a clear shift to younger players if they were available.
You can't magic young players onto the list post drafts.

 

[eastfreo75]

Yeah, SHill has not had a good run at it for a few seasons now, and it shows. Not only in his ability to get on the park, but when he's there, he's not quite playing to his potential either. In fact, without looking at it closely, I'm fairly sure the past few seasons at least he starts strongly, usually amongst our best and slowly deteriorates as the season goes on, nearly always injury related.

Not the thread for it I suppose, but not sure why coaches/medical staff don't pick up on this and just start these sorts of players (e.g. Sandi) pre-season later and introduce them later into the AFL season too so it helps balance the team a bit. Especially with so many young players, they can't run out a season either, so play them earlier and have the older/injury prone guys more up for it later in the year, or something along those lines anyway.

Totally agree.

Why do teams rush players back and just see their performance drop and get re-injured? Better to start their season later.

We always start with an older team and get blown off the park in the first two rounds. Then, we bring some youth in and the balance is about right and we do pretty good. After the break, we will start having older players out, our average age goes down and then the 60 plus loss come thick and fast.

Most likely it's better to have a more balanced team in terms of age. Goldie locks average age.

 

[Taylor]

I think we can get away with immature bodies in certain positions on the ground; half back, forward pockets - playing 75-100m of the ground only and most of their involvements come when out in space.

Playing them in the ruck, inside midfield, key back, key forward is like a dad playing against his primary school aged son, in a few years he might wipe the floor with his dad but for now it's no contest.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I think the only reliable conclusion to draw from the data is that a group of younger players is more likely to have average to poor footballers in it than an equal number of older players, the time between finds that out. Physically the older players can deliver their ability more consistently for a longer time but the game has moved beyond effort wins now.

You could also infer that an older team not conforming to those winning percentages requires change, and a younger team above the obverse is promising.