Preview Freo -v- GWS : the Return of the Hunchback of Notre Manuka... (Round 5, 2019)

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Apr 8, 2008
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Winter is coming.

House Labor is battling House Liberal, with House Greens facing off against House Nationals. And Fat Weird Clive is hanging around like a bloated Roose Bolton...

Into this foreboding maelstrom venture our brave band of violet vandals, looking to pinch a win from the Oarsome Orange Overlords (aka King Gilly's favourite sons and protected species).

For the second year in a row, those of us Dockers tragics who are marooned deep in the cold wild depths of the national capital get to finally see our Freo team live and exclusive at beautiful Manuka.
And in the election season as well!!

Despite the barren depths of winter, this happy coincidence of politics and purple would have sent my old mate Pricey into raptures of prose and poetry.
Sadly Matt won't be here to see it unfold, or barrack for our underdog rebels as they come up against the Kings inner court's favoured sons.

So how to preview the match in a way that would do Pricey justice??

Well, there are the stats: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_comparison?team1_id=9&team2_id=25
First 4 - v- last 4 - Freo won the first four meetings of these clubs. GWS has owned us since then, including a romp at this venue last season.
GWS take more marks, have more uncontested posessions, bounce it more and have more efficient and effective disposals.
Both teams have almost the same clearances (stoppage clearances are exactly the same), and nearly the same clangers and one percenters.
We tackle more, take more contested marks, but turn it over a heap more. And we intercept in defence more than they do.

So that's the numbers.

What about the ins and the outs?
Likely Freo ins n outs: IN: Fyfe, Cox, Ballantyne OUT: Hamling (conc), Hughes, Schultz
GWS: IN: Greene OUT: Ward (knee, poor fella)

While Fwyfe Bannister strengthens House Freo, Gang GWS still have way more talent on the park.

The tournament jousting will happen on a genuine oval shaped field, with fair warm weather and rolling verdant expanses of well tended lush lawn (sadly dewy in the afternoon's fading light - hello slipsie footed Tyron "Ballas" Lannister). The shape of Manuka means play tends to concentrate along the far wing, rather than spread across the ground like most other venues. Siege cannons and walls across half back don't work...

GWS have really learned to exploit this aspect of the ground to their advantage - and we weren't ready for it at all last year. It will be interesting to see how the new 6-6-6 rules alter this if at all - I have a feeling we will see even more shots on goal from deep in the pockets.

What about the words?? Matt was a wordsmith after all...

Well, I reckon it comes down to the letters. And the scores for the letters.

So, will:
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Beat
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By my Scrabble count that is 41 for GWS and 43 for Freo, so we win.
And there aren't enough Scrabble letters for Himmelllberqzzzqz, so they can't sub him in for Grubby Greene.

So we're a chance, right???

Well, maybe if Switkowski plays, and we can get the W on a triple letter score tile, and the I on a triple word score tile.
Otherwise we might just struggle. Feel free to suggest Scrabble strategies I have missed...

Outlandish Predictions
GWS
- Jackson Hately debuts and collects 20 posessions.
Freo - Hogan plays full back and has more marks and spoils than the rest of the forwards. Combined.

Tactic of the game
Rosscoe Lyon loves him some chaos random football - max effort and defensive swarming, albiet without silken skill or finesse.
Will it work in the oval orifice that is Manuka?? Well, as Littlefinger says:
"Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder."

Key Player
In a week in which we nearly lost one of the world's great architectural masterpieces, it is fitting that we will be playing a team that will win in large part through the Hunchback of Notre Manuka - aka the return of the pig - DeBoer.

Result
Well, I know we will have a hard go at it, but my fellow Freo frenzied folk, I fear Ramsay Bolton put it best:

"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention."

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I think I tipped a GWS vs ESS grand final this year , don't know about that one but where everyone was jumping off the Giants with the players they lost I thought it might improve them by balancing up the superstar / worker bee mix

I think they might be a tougher team to beat this year so can't tip us straight out but I think they might be a little flat for this and we look like we have the makings of a team that can hang in there better than previous years

Bring in Darcy for a learning opportunity against the bloke we want him to become , if we put Lobb up against Mummy he'll be transported back to his school days getting his head flushed down the toilet

Freo make them fight for it but GWS 16-24 pts
 
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I think I tipped a GWS vs ESS grand final this year , don't know about that one but where everyone was jumping off the Giants with the players they lost I thought it might improve them by balancing up the superstar / worker bee mix

I think they might be a tougher team to beat this year so can't tip us straight out but I think they might be a little flat for this and we look like we have the makings of a team that can hang in there better than previous years

Bring in Darcy for a learning opportunity against the bloke we want him to become , if we put Lobb up against Mummy he'll be transported back to his school days getting his head flushed down the toilet

Freo make them fight for it but GWS 16-24 pts
I have a lot of respect for Lobb's heart in the fight.

I still recall his first game at ruck in 2015 against North, Mummy did his ankle the week before against the Pies, and Phillips was relected as ruck but hurt his back in training on the Wednesday. With no time to work with our mids and up against Goldstein he did get flogged. Goldstein broke the world record record for taps and they killed us with quick goals out of centre clearances.

My memory from that game though is a still spindly looking Lobb goIng in as fiercely at the last tap as he did the first. Tooth and nail was how Leon described his fight in that game.

In 2017 the last year Mummy and Lobb played together Lobb was used to rescue Mummy when the ruck wasn't going well. Noticeably against the Pies at Spotless, who we'd never beaten. With Mummy rucking in the first QTR against a rampant Grundy we went in 5 goals to 1 down at QTR time and couldn't buy a clearance. Lobb rucked the second QTR and we clawed it back to win by 2 points eventually.

My point is that although Mummy actually coached him last year, I think Lobb would relish the chance to take it up to him. I dont know enough about Darcy to comment if he's a better option though.
 
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wow that preview had it all - topicality, current events, pop culture, stats, word play and a quality Matt Price reference! enjoy the game!!
 
Brilliant preview. "Tactic of the game Rosscoe Lyon loves him some chaos random football - max effort and defensive swarming, albiet without silken skill or finesse. Will it work in the oval orifice that is Manuka?? Well, as Littlefinger says:

"Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder."

I want to know more about whether Ross or fwd scout has adequately prepared us for Manuka's true oval orifice 178 x 150 dimensions. Same as Launceston and nowhere else really.

"What we don’t know is usually what gets us killed” . "Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is." Littlefinger

I'm not convinced the usual Ross chaos ball is the correct plan to climb this ladder at Manuka. Our players will try and give magnificent effort with both sides undermanned but I think their forwards will prevail.

Score Freo 4.9 to GWS 9.15
 
Haven’t followed GWS closely. Deboer seems like he is moved to a tagging role this season and is a causing quite a stir on the mainboard. Anyone been watching GWS games? He have always been a fair player when he was with us, so I assumed the tigers fans are just being salty about “his tactics”. Just seems odd that both Dusty and Dangerfield both had a go at him and even caught MRP citing and fines.

Will most likely go to Fyfe if he returns. Not really that concerned since we have bigger problems in our team than Fyfe being tagged.
 

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Haven’t followed GWS closely. Deboer seems like he is moved to a tagging role this season and is a causing quite a stir on the mainboard. Anyone been watching GWS games? He have always been a fair player when he was with us, so I assumed the tigers fans are just being salty about “his tactics”. Just seems odd that both Dusty and Dangerfield both had a go at him and even caught MRP citing and fines.

Will most likely go to Fyfe if he returns. Not really that concerned since we have bigger problems in our team than Fyfe being tagged.
It was really Dimma who whined about Dusty being tagged which enabled the Tigers fans outrage. De Boer c can't be blamed for Dusty whacking Kennedy in the back if the head with an elbow well off the play. I don't think he's a dirty player, but he did have a bad tempered day and lost his cool.

Nothing much in the Dangerfield incident. De Boer was holding him off the ball from behind, as taggers do, and Danger broke free. He then swung his arms blindly behind him a * off kind of gesture, and hit De Boer in the midriff.

I'm not sure he'll tag, but he might. With Ward out I think he'll stay in the midfield in some role to lead the youngsters. Although not a vice captain He's probably next in line for the captaincy if Davis misses a game for any reason.
 
Going to be in Canberra on Saturday for the first time in 42 years so will be good to be there in person. Only seen Freo in person away from Perth once and that was a win at Marvel against Saints, so here's hoping. Hoping but not expecting. But them again, GWS < WC by 52 points, Freo < WC 13 points, so basic algebra suggests Freo > GWS by 39 points. QED.
 
Going to be in Canberra on Saturday for the first time in 42 years so will be good to be there in person. Only seen Freo in person away from Perth once and that was a win at Marvel against Saints, so here's hoping. Hoping but not expecting. But them again, GWS < WC by 52 points, Freo < WC 13 points, so basic algebra suggests Freo > GWS by 39 points. QED.
GWS d Geelong by 4 points; Geelong d Freo by 133 points...GWS d Freo by...never mind.
 
Like to think we have improved where we can put up a showing this week, but we're a long way from these guys - and things like plane delays, unfamiliar venue, post Derby week etc. We wont have the maturity, talent and organisational discipline to overcome the plastic fantastic GWS - manufactured to make sure they win these sorts of games and easily.

Fyfe is back and that will help, but it's quite likely he wont be all there. History says after a bad knock like that it's a couple of weeks before its all pointing in the right direction, sometimes more. Mundy is great, but he's taking longer to get into the games these days - after that we're so thin in the middle when it comes to true ball winning class, we just wont get to use the ball with purpose often enough to stay in touch.

If for some reason the Giants do take us lightly, we might get a jump - that might give us a sniff but, again, we'd need to take every trick to really keep them at arms length for the whole game, and we just don't seem to be able to do that.

GWS by 5-6 goals would be about par - if we can do better than that, young guys play well, and we come away without injury, I'll be happy enough to just move on to next week.
 
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