Strategy Full rebuild v rebuild on the run

[loki04]

I went into the year thinking 7-12 was our range so that’d include finals.

I thought we were in full rebuild mode so thought bottom 5.

Imo we are still lacking another high end talent or 2 to come through and pair with ND.

We are going the luck out and try pinch one route.
See what happens I guess.
If we don't win a flag then it's a massive wasted year imo and sets the rebuild time frame back even further, because you can bet in 2 or so years after not winning one and we lose more senior talent to age the calls will come to do it properly.

 

[Markfs]

The press will turn in him in that situation if we drop. He seems like a coach so I hope it doesnt happen.

The press will turn on him? We all know who applies the real pressure

 

[Markfs]

So what's the prime focus of a full rebuild? To go to the bottom of the ladder to get the best draft picks? ....or to retire older players to make room for younger ones?

 

[Bianconeri]

A worry I do have is Fly making a rod for his own back. Raising expectations too much in your 1st year can backfire if you dont have the talent on the list to consolidate. When , in the next few seasosn our starting 22 becomes a young inexperienced one, which it almost certainly must, I hope he gets cut some slack and understanding. The press will turn in him in that situation if we drop. He seems like a coach so I hope it doesnt happen.

I have the opposite worry, AFL clubs are reluctant to let go of coaches that show the slightest bit of promise. A bigger worry is he turns into a Chris Scott or Ken Hinkley.

 

[Bianconeri]

I thought we were in full rebuild mode so thought bottom 5.

Imo we are still lacking another high end talent or 2 to come through and pair with ND.

We are going the luck out and try pinch one route.
See what happens I guess.
If we don't win a flag then it's a massive wasted year imo and sets the rebuild time frame back even further, because you can bet in 2 or so years after not winning one and we lose more senior talent to age the calls will come to do it properly.

It’s too much of a gamble for a first year coach to go into rebuild mode straight away. He was always going to try and get the best out of the list and earn credits in the bank before tearing it down.

I’m happy with the strategy of getting the best out of the current group then rebuilding in a few years time. Nick Daicos will probably be around for another 16 years and will see a few rebuilds in his time.

My main hope is the club club don’t completely screw over the next rebuild by not recruiting a developing key position forward.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I thought we were in full rebuild mode so thought bottom 5.

Imo we are still lacking another high end talent or 2 to come through and pair with ND.

We are going the luck out and try pinch one route.
See what happens I guess.
If we don't win a flag then it's a massive wasted year imo and sets the rebuild time frame back even further, because you can bet in 2 or so years after not winning one and we lose more senior talent to age the calls will come to do it properly.

I never thought we were as bad as 17th last year, just continually belted by the injury gods. The core group remained solid if we could keep them on the park, and thus far we’ve been pretty stable in that regard. Roughy, Grundy, Elliott, and Kreuger the most significant omissions and we’ve covered them.

 

[loki04]

I never thought we were as bad as 17th last year, just continually belted by the injury gods. The core group remained solid if we could keep them on the park, and thus far we’ve been pretty stable in that regard. Roughy, Grundy, Elliott, and Kreuger the most significant omissions and we’ve covered them.

I thought they would play 1 or 2 youths too many which would tip the balance over what the seniors could guide and carry hence results would be competitive but end up going against us.

 

[Bungeye]

Do not do a full rebuild!

Adelaide crows were a very competitive team for a number of years, that is until they started to retire and trade a number of players. If they held firm and accepted the fact they were a mid table team, things could've played out much differently.

North Melbourne were very competitive under Scott, his last season involved a number of close losses. Even an extra two years of Brent Harvey

Brent Harvey

Age

45

Ht

167cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

0.6

3star

G

0.6

3star

would have been invaluable to the team.

Lastly, I think supporters have alot to answer for, they become too irrational and want to burn the whole place down all too quickly. We are way too reactive, when we really should have preventative measures in place to soften the fall.

 

[Pie eyed]

like most media stories, there has to be an easy answer. The hawks did actually move along quite a few senior players. We had a list which was a lot better than 17th on the ladder.

Actually Geelong is a better example of alternatives to the full rebuild. We understand the problems with their model and we might see it again in the finals.

I certainly agree with the article that putting all your eggs in the top 10 of the draft basket is a very limited strategy. Good players do pass through that net. Clubs are becoming less and less arrogant about their drafting prowess and are looking at the lower leagues to find those that missed their eye.

The way Collingwoods rebuild is being described is a direct result of the results so far.
If we were bottom of the ladder it would be described as a full rebuild.
The facts is the footy media are parasitic pieces of s**t who will say, write or intimate anything to fill their allotted space whether print or media time.
campaigners to the end who deserve your full disgust.
Not one of them should get out unscathed.


Facile, flaccid confabulators riding headlong into infamy.

They are what you wipe your arse with tomorrow.

 

[Deadly Assassin]

Why so many experts had us as locks for bottom 4 this year boggles the mind. We were never going to be bottom 4 with the quality we have on our list and there were laughable predictions from experts predicting we'd spend a decade in the wilderness.

Remember that 2018 was the start of our 'window' not too much different to 2008 being the start of Hawthorn's last 'window' only differences being they won a flag and we didn't, along with us needing a change of coach unlike them.

We had 4 years out of the finals 2014-2017 and it was an eternity for us. In the modern era our club along with Geelong, Sydney and West Coast are the big 4 perennial finals contenders given all of these clubs have no more than 3-4 years in a row out of finals before they're back contending again.

We don't do rebuilds like Adelaide and North Melbourne (currently), Brisbane (2010s), Carlton and St Kilda (last 10 years), Fremantle (last 6 years), Melbourne (2007-2017), Richmond (2002-2012) etc. despite what neutrals and experts like to think and wish for, and I won't be surprised if we go deep in finals this year. No one predicted us to finish anywhere near the top 8 in 2018 yet we were a kick away from winning a premiership, and I hope we get to play Richmond in September so we can break their hearts again when it matters just like 2018.

 

[loki04]

Why so many experts had us as locks for bottom 4 this year boggles the mind. We were never going to be bottom 4 with the quality we have on our list and there were laughable predictions from experts predicting we'd spend a decade in the wilderness.

Remember that 2018 was the start of our 'window' not too much different to 2008 being the start of Hawthorn's last 'window' only differences being they won a flag and we didn't, along with us needing a change of coach unlike them.

We had 4 years out of the finals 2014-2017 and it was an eternity for us. In the modern era our club along with Geelong, Sydney and West Coast are the big 4 perennial finals contenders given all of these clubs have no more than 3-4 years in a row out of finals before they're back contending again.

We don't do rebuilds like Adelaide and North Melbourne (currently), Brisbane (2010s), Carlton and St Kilda (last 10 years), Fremantle (last 6 years), Melbourne (2007-2017), Richmond (2002-2012) etc. despite what neutrals and experts like to think and wish for, and I won't be surprised if we go deep in finals this year. No one predicted us to finish anywhere near the top 8 in 2018 yet we were a kick away from winning a premiership, and I hope we get to play Richmond in September so we can break their hearts again when it matters just like 2018.

Because a smart club looking for sustained success and to build a multiple premiership team would of managed out the 2022 season.

Yes not every team can rebuild a multi flag team but the ONLY chance of you doing so is taking the Geelong (also saints of 00s unlucky), Hawks, Collingwood (should of won back 2 back 10/11 potentially in 2012 too), Richmond and Melb (now Carlton) route.

The club has basically decided stuff it making up numbers in finals and lucking out potentially pinching one is where it's at.
It's great we are winning for now probably make finals and go out in either the Semi or Preliminary. Woopty do.
Helps nothing long term and inhibits list growth. For mine this year is Flag or bust. We are now riding a death horse.

The issue is if it goes wrong you waste each generations chances at flagging as a eventual proper rebuild WILL happen. Right now they are trying to win a flag in the generation that has Pendles, Sidebum, Howe, Elliott, Grundy, Adams, Crisp, WHE, Mihocek and Cox.

We fail to flag over the next 2 years and we lose a few of those players and then the rest become 30/31/32 years old.

Now our 28 yo's are Moore, Maynard, Degoey Cameron, Noble.

We only had one year down and secured Nick Daicos fs but in doing so traded out of the 1st and 2nd rounds and got basically a heap of 3rd rounders back.

So we have a single player after the next mid ranged aged players move to senior types to build a side around.

Ginni is great but he is not a player that a side is built around he is a cream on top type.

Henry is a impact player with a low disposal count type. Sticky hands bit of xfactor largely inconsistent and unsighted. Has in 2022 come alive in the 2nd half of games typically and has a lot of development left.

Rest of 2020 crop can't even crack regular bests in the 2s ATM.

FFS Hine thinks KPF stands for kaPOW fatman.


Each delay in rebuild actually screws over a generation of player.
It typically takes 5 to 7 years for a full rebuild to come to fruition. This is the only TYPE of rebuild that has produced multiple flag teams.

Pendles Sideass Howe Elliott Mihocek Hoskin-Elliott

Grundy Adams Crisp Cameron

Moore Degoey Maynard etc.

Quaynor J.Daicos
2020 crop Henry Macrae Reef Poulter McMahon Ginnivan (club is really relying g on this crop bucking trends).
2021 crop basically NDaicos.
2022 crop now looking like a single low teens pick and 3 shitty mid - late 3rd rounders not attached to us.

Most multiple flag teams have bulk of the 22 drafted within 4 or so years of each other, develop together and come through together, they then usually trade in to fill needs and gaps in what they missed at the draft board.

For mine if we don't win a flag in next 2 years heads should roll as they basically set back our rebuild another 3 years with sweet fa to show and not even hope of a gun team on the horizon.

So in response to your rant...rant over.

 

[loki04]

The way Collingwoods rebuild is being described is a direct result of the results so far.
If we were bottom of the ladder it would be described as a full rebuild.
The facts is the footy media are parasitic pieces of s**t who will say, write or intimate anything to fill their allotted space whether print or media time.
campaigners to the end who deserve your full disgust.
Not one of them should get out unscathed.


Facile, flaccid confabulators riding headlong into infamy.

They are what you wipe your arse with tomorrow.

Not really. The team selection is not that of a team in full rebuild mode.

Cox would not of seen a return.
Grundy would of been put to pasture for the entire season not even looked at returning this year.
Macrea, Poulter and likely McMahon would of been getting games pumped into them.
Players like WHE Noble would make way.
Experimentation would be going on with Maynard Quaynor Josh and Nick Daicos getting midfield time. Moore would be getting fwd time.
AFL development and positional experiment with a bonus goal to lower ladder position maximising our draft board and likelihood of landing a player that will help us deliver one or more flags would be the aim.

We are not in full rebuild mode.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Because a smart club looking for sustained success and to build a multiple premiership team would of managed out the 2022 season.

Yes not every team can rebuild a multi flag team but the ONLY chance of you doing so is taking the Geelong (also saints of 00s unlucky), Hawks, Collingwood (should of won back 2 back 10/11 potentially in 2012 too), Richmond and Melb (now Carlton) route.

The club has basically decided stuff it making up numbers in finals and lucking out potentially pinching one is where it's at.
It's great we are winning for now probably make finals and go out in either the Semi or Preliminary. Woopty do.
Helps nothing long term and inhibits list growth. For mine this year is Flag or bust. We are now riding a death horse.

The issue is if it goes wrong you waste each generations chances at flagging as a eventual proper rebuild WILL happen. Right now they are trying to win a flag in the generation that has Pendles, Sidebum, Howe, Elliott, Grundy, Adams, Crisp, WHE, Mihocek and Cox.

We fail to flag over the next 2 years and we lose a few of those players and then the rest become 30/31/32 years old.

Now our 28 yo's are Moore, Maynard, Degoey Cameron, Noble.

We only had one year down and secured Nick Daicos fs but in doing so traded out of the 1st and 2nd rounds and got basically a heap of 3rd rounders back.

So we have a single player after the next mid ranged aged players move to senior types to build a side around.

Ginni is great but he is not a player that a side is built around he is a cream on top type.

Henry is a impact player with a low disposal count type. Sticky hands bit of xfactor largely inconsistent and unsighted. Has in 2022 come alive in the 2nd half of games typically and has a lot of development left.

Rest of 2020 crop can't even crack regular bests in the 2s ATM.

FFS Hine thinks KPF stands for kaPOW fatman.
View attachment 1437459

Each delay in rebuild actually screws over a generation of player.
It typically takes 5 to 7 years for a full rebuild to come to fruition. This is the only TYPE of rebuild that has produced multiple flag teams.

Pendles Sideass Howe Elliott Mihocek Hoskin-Elliott

Grundy Adams Crisp Cameron

Moore Degoey Maynard etc.

Quaynor J.Daicos
2020 crop Henry Macrae Reef Poulter McMahon Ginnivan (club is really relying g on this crop bucking trends).
2021 crop basically NDaicos.
2022 crop now looking like a single low teens pick and 3 shitty mid - late 3rd rounders not attached to us.

Most multiple flag teams have bulk of the 22 drafted within 4 or so years of each other, develop together and come through together, they then usually trade in to fill needs and gaps in what they missed at the draft board.

For mine if we don't win a flag in next 2 years heads should roll as they basically set back our rebuild another 3 years with sweet fa to show and not even hope of a gun team on the horizon.

So in response to your rant...rant over.

Long depressing read. I'm just happy we are finally playing watchable football and have got our act together in the now.

 

[Finnishpie]

Agreed. I think Fly has been given a really difficult task with the list but has done a great job so far. Wisely he has drip fed the kids into the 22 and kept an experienced older 22 out on the park each week. We have bounced well as one or two posters predicted. Not me. Gets trickier going forward when the older talent moves on. the kids he has used, Henry , Ginny and Beau have really come on. Better than expected but they were the ones who looked most likely in 2021. The rest of the class of 20 is probably struggling a bit, 19 looks a bust and 21 has one bone fide superstar but the others are only maybes.

The likes of Kreuger, Dean and Lippa offer some talent to fill partly the age hole in our list without being stars.

A worry I do have is Fly making a rod for his own back. Raising expectations too much in your 1st year can backfire if you dont have the talent on the list to consolidate. When , in the next few seasosn our starting 22 becomes a young inexperienced one, which it almost certainly must, I hope he gets cut some slack and understanding. The press will turn in him in that situation if we drop. He seems like a coach so I hope it doesnt happen.

So I do think that maybe we need to trade out a couple of players to try to get 2-3 more top 20 picks. we’re just so thin on the ground, I can’t think of who that could be.

De Goey To get to a club of his choice? Elliot, but he’s much loved? Grundy and pay half his wage? Who else is there?

 

[Finnishpie]

So what's the prime focus of a full rebuild? To go to the bottom of the ladder to get the best draft picks? ....or to retire older players to make room for younger ones?

To get 10 picks in the top 20 in 3 years and another bunch of speculative choices. so that 15 out of your 22 all come from a 4 year period.

 

[Markfs]

To get 10 picks in the top 20 in 3 years and another bunch of speculative choices. so that 15 out of your 22 all come from a 4 year period.

well that means being on the bottom for that period and probably a total loss of game style as per North now, or Melb and Carlton in the past decade. It also ends up with admin in crisis etc. Just thinking about it, hawthorn is about the only club managing it well with 3 years around 14th on the ladder and maintaiing its integrity but thats why the hawks have been successful. Their fans understand the process and trust the people in charge. Pie fans arent like that and neithehr are other clubs. We would discintergrate self-explode

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

We have a very underrated core list of best 22 players aged under 30

Moore, crisp, DeGoey, Maynard, Cameron, Grundy, lipinski, Quaynor, JDaicos, n Daicos (easily core despite his youth) Noble, mcCreery and Ginnivan. Henry and Murphy are not far away from joining that list.

That’s a pretty solid foundation to add to our list of older players, some of whom could easily have three years still left in their legs.

Add the possibility of McInnes McRae Kreuger Dean Carmichael and others …..and there is potential to quickly grow that core list from within our own ranks.

I really don’t see this cliff that others see just because Pendles Sidey Elliott Howe and Adams are over 30. This mini rebuild on the run has set us up for the next phase. Whether the rebuild on the run was strategic or just the result of the clubs incompetence is another question!!!

 

[Markfs]

I don’t really get the point of the article.

Each year I expect the club to select the players that give us the best chance to win. It’s the Collingwood way, and is why we have won more games and played in more grand finals than any other club.

It’s winning on the last Saturday in September which has always been our problem.

no doubt jmac....and often we have been beaten by better players...but what i consider the best footy dept i've seen in my time wouldnt survive the 3 or so years at the bottom to deliver the top draft picks to be a complete team.....so here we go again with a good bunch of boys trying their best.

 

[Markfs]

We have a very underrated core list of best 22 players aged under 30

Moore, crisp, DeGoey, Maynard, Cameron, Grundy, lipinski, Quaynor, JDaicos, n Daicos (easily core despite his youth) Noble, mcCreery and Ginnivan. Henry and Murphy are not far away from joining that list.

That’s a pretty solid foundation to add to our list of older players, some of whom could easily have three years still left in their legs.

Add the possibility of McInnes McRae Kreuger Dean Carmichael and others …..and there is potential to quickly grow that core list from within our own ranks.

I really don’t see this cliff that others see just because Pendles Sidey Elliott Howe and Adams are over 30. This mini rebuild on the run has set us up for the next phase. Whether the rebuild on the run was strategic or just the result of the clubs incompetence is another question!!!

i dont know who is under-rating the list other than a lot of people on BF last year who wanted to get rid of murphy and cameron and noble. The other younger guys came on quick enough not to be trashed. Now they're core players it seems. As are the likelihood of half a dozen guys who have hardly played a game. All of that sounds more like overs than unders. But an average list has got us to grand finals in the past so we might be on the road again.

 

[coolidge1000]

It’s too much of a gamble for a first year coach to go into rebuild mode straight away. He was always going to try and get the best out of the list and earn credits in the bank before tearing it down.

I’m happy with the strategy of getting the best out of the current group then rebuilding in a few years time. Nick Daicos will probably be around for another 16 years and will see a few rebuilds in his time.

My main hope is the club club don’t completely screw over the next rebuild by not recruiting a developing key position forward.

The best way to rebuild is to replace the pieces gradually and if you look at it that's what fly is trying to do . Ok we have sidey Howe and pendles as the big 3 but he's even started there by shifting pendles out of the centre. We have kids in the vfl that will come through I think he's doing it spot on gradually replacing the pieces

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

i dont know who is under-rating the list other than a lot of people on BF last year who wanted to get rid of murphy and cameron and noble. The other younger guys came on quick enough not to be trashed. Now they're core players it seems. As are the likelihood of half a dozen guys who have hardly played a game. All of that sounds more like overs than unders. But an average list has got us to grand finals in the past so we might be on the road again.

Even on this thread there are many are saying we have a two year window before we are in a world of pain when the veteran stars leave.

That to me says these people are underrating our core list.

 

[Markfs]

Even on this thread there are many are saying we have a two year window before we are in a world of pain when the veteran stars leave.

That to me says these people are underrating our core list.

ordinary teams can win premierships. malthouse almost did it in 2002. we've tried and made finals and come close with teams like the current one. We might do it again. However, on the balance, other teams have more to offer in the big games in sept. I dont see much in the youngsters other than a support cast - except for a few like henry and daicos and quaynor who are a cut above it

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Three who are a cut above it is a pretty damned good hit rate already given lack of first round picks in recent years. Personally I’d add josh daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

to that list to make it four.

The rest of the kids are unknowns. But even without them making the grade we have a strong core that isn’t overly relying on players aged over 30.

By 2024 the players in the large 2020 intake will be 22 years old and we will know where they are at. At vfl level it’s very much a development process with not much dead wood on the list.

 

[Markfs]

Three who are a cut above it is a pretty damned good hit rate already given lack of first round picks in recent years. Personally I’d add josh daicos to that list to make it four.

The rest of the kids are unknowns. But even without them making the grade we have a strong core that isn’t overly relying on players aged over 30.

By 2024 the players in the large 2020 intake will be 22 years old and we will know where they are at. At vfl level it’s very much a development process with not much dead wood on the list.

you could make a case that josh is on par with someone like ed langdon that everyone seems to rave about so i can certainly see him in a premiership team. however, its the next level players that seem to catch pie teams out in grand finals. De goey is the type. For me, I'd be happier to stay at the bottom for a couple of years to get a couple of key players, although I dont want the current footy dept to be disbanded because of fan anxiety...so i'm happy enough with the current course but i half expect that we'll get pipped in grand finals by a team with more individual firepower. I'm not really interested in good seasons with bad endings....

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

. I'm not really interested in good seasons with bad endings....

That’s where we differ. I want a good season and I’m not scared of bad endings. I don’t believe that dipping to the bottom is the only way to win a premiership.