Other Gambling Discussion

[mattys123]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

I like the line for the Colts, have already taken a bite at it, and included it in my first multi.

The Saints/Cards line depends a lot on whether or not Anquan Boldin plays next week or not. If he does, Warner will have 2 star WR's to throw to, plus the other "servicable" receivers who have been performing recently.

I like the Vikings against Cowboys, as I just think the Vikes can control the clock just a little better with Peterson. Favre can't be trusted 100% (I still remember the 6 INT game in the playoffs) but he probably has the best O-line and team around him he's had in a decade.

The San Diego game, if you are having a bet, obviously comes down to line and overs/unders betting, because the Chargers will be too short to back straight out. I can get a 9.0 point head start for the Jets at the moment, but if I could find 10 I'd be all over it.

Will wait till later in the week before going "big" on my selections, but I'm pretty sure I won't change much, just the Cards/Saints line maybe if Boldin comes up.

 

[Wizard]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

mattys123 we are a better team with Q on the sidelines. Hard to believe i know but its becoming more and more evident.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

Boldin is quite a selfish player that has a tendency to whinge when Larry gets more balls thrown to him, but in this match up v NO i think Ari could use him as without him you know Saints CB's will be getting a lot of over the top help from Darren Sharper to shadow Fitzgerald.

This game may come down to whether one of these teams can establish a running game & keep the other team's O off the field.

The Saints at home still hold the advantage in my book, but i can understand people wanting a piece of Ari +7 or $3.30

 

[Wizard]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

If they wanna bring that help to FItz then we will make them stupid and use Breaston and Doucet all day.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

If they wanna bring that help to FItz then we will make them stupid and use Breaston and Doucet all day.

Warner with time makes any D look silly, mind you so does Brees....

Sharper is pretty smart, it wouldn't surprise me if he got another pick this week.

Whoever makes some Defensive plays will win, like today...the Ari D came up big early & late, made up for being owned the rest of the game.

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

Vikings -2.5 looks good to me - very hard to beat home and too many people all over Dallas at the moment. I still don't think they are that good - Philly was a great matchup for them.

I do think the Saints will win as well but laying 7 against a team with as much firepower as the Cards is tough to do. The over will be tempting but it will be set very high of course.

As a Ravens fan, it's hard to be objective, but I might take the points against the Colts....only a small bite. Momentum does mean something and I think the Ravens have some belief after today (even though NE were ordinary) and the Colts won't have played anything meaningful for a while. Of course, if Flacco actually is forced to throw, then they probably can't win. Get that dude a receiver in the offseason!

 

[The Big Woofer]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

Vikings -2.5 looks good to me - very hard to beat home and too many people all over Dallas at the moment. I still don't think they are that good - Philly was a great matchup for them.

I do think the Saints will win as well but laying 7 against a team with as much firepower as the Cards is tough to do. The over will be tempting but it will be set very high of course.

As a Ravens fan, it's hard to be objective, but I might take the points against the Colts....only a small bite. Momentum does mean something and I think the Ravens have some belief after today (even though NE were ordinary) and the Colts won't have played anything meaningful for a while. Of course, if Flacco actually is forced to throw, then they probably can't win. Get that dude a receiver in the offseason!

I reckon for Balt to win they might need some points from their D, an Ed Reed Pick Six like @ Miami last year would help them.....if they get some turnovers leading to some easy points they got a chance, need to find a way to put up 24 min.

I wonder if this Min -2.5 is a trap set to get Min money, usually you'd have the home team favoured by more than a FG in this game, especially as Min is 8-0 at home this year....whereas the NO/Ari line of 7 seems a tad high considering the form coming in--again it makes me think they're after Arizona money.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

The Saints/Cards matchup is an interesting one because both teams are pretty similar in their strengths and weaknesses but achieve it differently.

Both D's force tunovers and I suspect whoever wins that battle wins the game.

Offensively the real battle is probably the running game. Both will put up yards through the air. We know that. On the ground I reckon the Saints have the advantage but the flipside is our run D has been terrible of late. Charles Grant out doesn't help that. He's a much better run stopper than he is pass rusher.

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

I reckon for Balt to win they might need some points from their D, an Ed Reed Pick Six like @ Miami last year would help them.....if they get some turnovers leading to some easy points they got a chance, need to find a way to put up 24 min.

I wonder if this Min -2.5 is a trap set to get Min money, usually you'd have the home team favoured by more than a FG in this game, especially as Min is 8-0 at home this year....whereas the NO/Ari line of 7 seems a tad high considering the form coming in--again it makes me think they're after Arizona money.

I don't know about a trap, but they had to make it 2.5 to get any action on the Vikings, given the form of the Cowboys and they fact that they are a public team and money will come on for them regardless.

Same thing with the Saints - they are basically a public team now so, yes, that line would be set to attract Arizona money.

 

[footylover18]

Re: Viking's made -2.5 favourite v Dallas

Cowboys are a serious threat for the SB.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

Arizona (3.40)-Dallas (2.20)-Indianapolis (1.38) = $10.32

I think that is a worthwhile bet at attractive odds. Even taking Arizona/Dallas with Indianapolis would be alright... ??

 

[Woodson]

Re: Early Lines Saints -7, Vikes -2.5, SD -7.5, Indy -6.5

Arizona (3.40)-Dallas (2.20)-Indianapolis (1.38) = $10.32

I think that is a worthwhile bet at attractive odds. Even taking Arizona/Dallas with Indianapolis would be alright... ??

I'd suggest taking the +7 point start for the Cards instead of h2h... but if you look in the near future, the $8.50 on offer is damn good odds.

Supabah match up odds..

Indianapolis Colts v New Orleans Saints 4.50
San Diego Chargers v New Orleans Saints 5.50
Indianapolis Colts v Minnesota Vikings 7.50
San Diego Chargers v Minnesota Vikings 8.00
Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys 8.50
San Diego Chargers v Dallas Cowboys 11.00
Baltimore Ravens v New Orleans Saints 15.00
Indianapolis Colts v Arizona Cardinals 16.00
San Diego Chargers v Arizona Cardinals 19.00
New York Jets v New Orleans Saints 21.00
Baltimore Ravens v Minnesota Vikings 25.00
Baltimore Ravens v Dallas Cowboys 26.00
New York Jets v Minnesota Vikings 34.00
New York Jets v Dallas Cowboys 36.00
Baltimore Ravens v Arizona Cardinals 46.00
New York Jets v Arizona Cardinals 81.00

source: Sportsbet

 

[The Big Woofer]

Betting on AFC & NFC Championship Games

Betting on AFC & NFC Championship Games

There's been some good discussion on here re: these 2 games, but i thought i'd start a thread specifically with regards to people having a bet on these games.

Now first i mus point this out, my last few weeks of NFL punting have sucked more than a Tera Patrick flick, however sometimes you gotta stick to your guns so i will post my thoughts on the games & encourage open debate & exchange of ideas on making a profit from these games.

AFC

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

NY Jets +8

I can see a possible upset brewing here.

In this matchup NYJ take on a pass-happy Offense with many targets & people are saying there will be too many targets for them to cover especially with a great QB on the other side, h'mm wasn't SD QB Rivers supposed to have too many play makers for the Jets to handle?? (Ind like SD have played in a lot of close games this year) The only one NYJ struggled to cover was TE Gates as they tried to use a LB on him, whom lucky for them played poorly & dropped balls at critical times.
Ind will look to use TE Clark--THIS IS THE PLAYER NYJ MUST STOP OR CURTAIL TO WIN....NFL is about adjustments & i doubt NYJ will try & cover Clark in the exact same way as they did Gates. Why is this match up so important, well because Reggie Wayne is going to be stuck on Revis Island for the entire game, meaning NYJ can give extra help to cover Garcon, Clark & Ind's other receivers....

Ind rank 30th in rush Offense so Manning won't get a lot of help from that department, especially against this NYJ tough front line. Manning is great, but he's 2-5 all time in the playoffs against the 3-4 Defense, which NYJ employ, i never like betting a one dimensional passing team in the playoffs against a good D, i always remember Dan Marino and the Dolphins being blown out at home in the AFC title game in '92, whilst i'm not saying Indy will get blown out i can envisage some problems for the colts without an effective running game.

Let's look at the other side of the ball, the Jets we all know are a run first team, & many will point to the Balimore game whereby Ind shut down the run fairly well. However NYJ run the ball in a different way to Balt--NYJ have 2 power runners in Jones & Greene & a great Offensive line to open gaps, the Ravens relied on 1 RB Rice who is a speed & finese runner & this played into the hands of Ind's undersized but quick D line, this time its not a good matchup for Indy & I see NYJ being able to wear these guys down over the course of the day.

I actually think Sanchez's job will be made a lot easier by the running game, he should get some chances in the play-action. As long as the Jets don't self-destruct like the Ravens I think they can hang in there cover the spread & perhaps even pull the upset @ $3.90

NFC

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

New Orleans -3.5

The venue in this game is huge, the Saints 12th man will make it very hard for the Vikings O to comminucate & keep their timing.
The Saints rushed QB Warner all over the field last week as they did to Brady during the other big home game this year that was noisy. I expect them to get pressure to Favre & he's a different QB if you can pressure him on the road, he still flings the ball into coverage & the Saints secondary is now back to being healthy & have Sharper (back there reading Favre's eyes) i am sure Sharper knows a thing or two about his ex-teamates subtle tendancies. The Saints' D has been the questionable part of the team, however if you look how they've performed this year when they've all been healthy it paints a different picture, they also get a big advantage with crowd noise in this game.

I think both teams will put a decent rush on the QB, however the Saints O line hasn't allowed Brees to be sacked very often this year & Brees can release the ball a little faster than Favre & favre's road record in the playoffs shows how hard it is to win in such a hostile environment--there won't be many stadiums that will have ever been much louder than the Super Dome this week. The Vikes 4 road losses this year they have lost by at least 6 points & have only beaten 1 playoff team on the road (GB).

Many people are picking the Vikings pointing to their supposed better balanced Offense--this is a myth, in fact the Saints have averaged more yards per game rushing than the Vikes & whilst AP is great the Saints have a variety of backs who all run in different ways.

Good luck all, can't wait for the action to begin.

 

[fuey]

Re: Betting on AFC & NFC Championship Games

I've taken a wild one with HT/FT doubles for both games...

Jets to be in front at HT, Colts to win.
"Other" for the NFC game, which I assume will win if it's a tie at half time.
Added in a Tsonga AO win for a $84 value.

In terms of regular betting, I liked the Jets with the line and a total score under 38.5. I don't think the Colts will score more than 24pts in a win, and less if the Jets happen to win. So I thought it was pretty safe.

Vikes will keep it close, but I didn't really like the line. Still think they're too well rounded, so would've taken them H2H.

 

[Woodson]

Re: Betting on AFC & NFC Championship Games

I've taken a wild one with HT/FT doubles for both games...

Jets to be in front at HT, Colts to win.
"Other" for the NFC game, which I assume will win if it's a tie at half time.
Added in a Tsonga AO win for a $84 value.

In terms of regular betting, I liked the Jets with the line and a total score under 38.5. I don't think the Colts will score more than 24pts in a win, and less if the Jets happen to win. So I thought it was pretty safe.

Vikes will keep it close, but I didn't really like the line. Still think they're too well rounded, so would've taken them H2H.

I'm thinking along the lines of a 27-17 scoreline at least. Consider that the J-E-T-S were held to 3 & out on their first three possessions lw, the Chargers regretfully left Nine points on the field and the Colts were 15pts with 10minutes left in the third Q in week 16 all adds up to an OVERS game. Don't tell me that Peyton isn't capable to torch the 6 man blitz with limited cover... that's why a early statement will manufacture Endzone points or the J-E-T-S will indeed control the tempo which may also produce a breakout burst run from either of their RB's. I also recall Manning rallying the Colts from an 18 pt deficit vs the Pats in one of the most amazing AFC CC ever played. Stopping the pass when you have Peyton involved is harder than stopping the run IMHO. Colts D will stack the box giving Sanchez opportunities to make plays and put the J-E-T-S in ideal scoring position. Really like the OVERS (39.5). Safest bet of the day For value, consider Keller to score a TD anytime @ $3.10. @ sportsbet

As for the NFC CC... I'll take Rice to score a TD anytime @ $2.10.. decent value as it's Favre go-to man.

 

[Chism]

Re: Betting on AFC & NFC Championship Games

I've taken a wild one with HT/FT doubles for both games...

Jets to be in front at HT, Colts to win.
"Other" for the NFC game, which I assume will win if it's a tie at half time.
Added in a Tsonga AO win for a $84 value.

Good work Fuey and a nice collect coming your way. Good stuff. $$$$$$$

 

[Exe Gesis]

Someone was telling me how their friend made an NFL prop bet using an Australian-based site, won 700 dollars on a 15 dollar multibet of "Anytime TD" involving Taysom Hill, Tyreek Hill, Aiyuk, and some other player or two.

Anyway.....i have a sportsbet account that i never use because it doesnt have any NFL ptop bets.

Do you guys know what that possible Aust site was? Id like to sign up and blow my money making outrageous prop bets in lieu of winning thousands of dollars every week.

TAB? What other sites?

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Someone was telling me how their friend made an NFL prop bet using an Australian-based site, won 700 dollars on a 15 dollar multibet of "Anytime TD" involving Taysom Hill, Tyreek Hill, Aiyuk, and some other player or two.

Anyway.....i have a sportsbet account that i never use because it doesnt have any NFL ptop bets.

Do you guys know what that possible Aust site was? Id like to sign up and blow my money making outrageous prop bets in lieu of winning thousands of dollars every week.

TAB? What other sites?

I know but I’m not telling to save your money. Gambling is harmful

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Someone was telling me how their friend made an NFL prop bet using an Australian-based site, won 700 dollars on a 15 dollar multibet of "Anytime TD" involving Taysom Hill, Tyreek Hill, Aiyuk, and some other player or two.

Anyway.....i have a sportsbet account that i never use because it doesnt have any NFL ptop bets.

Do you guys know what that possible Aust site was? Id like to sign up and blow my money making outrageous prop bets in lieu of winning thousands of dollars every week.

TAB? What other sites?

Looks like Sportsbet offers it. Can’t see anything on TAB

 

[Exe Gesis]

I thought you were trying to help me save money and not gamble? Great friend you turned out to be

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I thought you were trying to help me save money and not gamble? Great friend you turned out to be

Yeah sorry changed my mind

 

[offtherails9]

I thought you were trying to help me save money and not gamble? Great friend you turned out to be

Yeah it was SB mate. I had a nice one on the weekend.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD, Derrick Henry over 113.5 yards, Dolphins, Tampa and Ravens to all win, plus Kelce for a TD. Think the odds were like $17

 

[Exe Gesis]

Yeah it was SB mate. I had a nice one on the weekend.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD, Derrick Henry over 113.5 yards, Dolphins, Tampa and Ravens to all win, plus Kelce for a TD. Think the odds were like $17

I cant find it when I'm on the NFL section.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Can you point me the way, kind sir.

 

[offtherails9]

I cant find it when I'm on the NFL section.

So you click on the game, say Packers Titans, and 'Any Time Touchdown Scorer' will be in the popular markets section at the top. You add your specific selection to your betslip, then go to a different game and do the same. They will then be sitting in your bet slip, and you can multi bet them at the bottom of your betslip.