Analysis Games Experience - A lesson in tempering expectations

WallyStringhaus

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Aug 27, 2015
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In previous postings I have highlighted some data with regards to experience levels and how the Club under Bevo has massively over-achieved when compared with the rest of the competition. It still baffles me that people on this board have been so quick to jump off of the #inbevowetrust bandwagon, especially when you consider just how young and inexperienced our list is at the moment.

Below is a chart that shows 10 years worth of data;
  • The Green line illustrates the total games played by the Premiers of each season
  • The Black line shows the average games played by the eight finalists of each season
  • The Red line displays the average games played by the bottom four sides of each season
Chart.jpg


For reasons that have been discussed Ad nauseam the Premiership team from 2016 was unable to stick together, let's just pretend for a moment that they did. What would our experience level look like if Hamling decided to stay, Jake behaved himself, Dahl stayed motivated, Biggs, Boyd, Picken and Clay didn't retire early and Moz and Dicko had an injury free run. If we use the 21 premiership players and subbed in Suckling for M.Boyd and imagine for a second that we had a Richmond like injury free run, adding around 50 games to each player would see our total games experience sit at around 2750...right in the pocket for where a consistent finals team needs to be.

On the weekend our total games played was 1615. In Round One 2018 it was 1510. History shows us that this is bottom four level. That we won 8 games last year was a feat on par with making the finals in 2015. If we can get another 8 this year then we should all be very encouraged. Brisbane finished 18th in 2017 and had a total games played of 1615 in Round 23 of that season. They've added Charlie Cameron, Luke Hodge and Lachie Neale and pumped some games into their youth and they now sit at 2142 games played and are on track for a home final. It can turn very, very quickly.

Only 5 teams have made the finals with less than 2000 games experience. Three of those teams were early in the decade (Freo 2010, Carl 2010/11) and the Dogs in 2015/16. Only one of those teams were able to make it past the Semi-Final stage which shows just what a remarkable achievement 2016 was. Out of 72 finals teams since 2010 only one has made a Prelim with less than 2000 games experience, that side went on to not only win that Prelim but a GF as well.

Luke Beveridge is a miracle worker and we as fans need to give him the time to build his team. We are showing we can sustain good levels of football against quality, hardened and experienced units. What is lacking is a bit of consistency and continuity. If we show a bit of patience and just let these young blokes marinate and throw in a few key ingredients at the draft/trade period then we will be tasting success again in no time! Go Dogs!
 

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fpcookie

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Great post mate. Do you have our average games played in each year for the period you've graphed by any chance? (or could add it to the graph?) Would be interesting to see how we stacked up against the comp in each year.
 

WallyStringhaus

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Great post, Wally.
To be honest mate I've actually been inspired to post because of your attitude. Previously when this board has become toxic I've just stayed away. Seeing your passion over the last week has reminded me that when times are tough this board needs more level headed and realistic posters contributing. So thank you👍
 

Yojimbo

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Nov 14, 2012
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Lovely graphs Waldo, so in essence what you are saying is that the premiership team of 2016 had the
experience of a bottom four side, probably worse when you remove the outliers in Boyd, Morris and
Murphy noting that every team has these older outliers. I struggle to explain why so many of our
ex-players are playing for sides above us on the ladder and I can't work out why Marcus Adams
would think hey I want to go to Brisbane possibly the tallest list in the AFL. I do a similar thing sans
the sexy and informative graphs for every game, every year and last year our best age spread was
in our biggest loss for the year yet we were remarkably young in some of our victories.

The reality is MOST premierships are grown over many years, many years of assembling a core
group of players and gelling them together on the field of battle, this can be a five to seven year
endeavour you see teams bring in a truck load of talent every year through trading, but this
method does not work for the bonds of cohesion and trust are not built on the training track yes
they are refined, but not built. To forge a great sword it must see extreme heat and cold and it
takes time.
 

Charlie Bucket

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Nov 16, 2015
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To be honest mate I've actually been inspired to post because of your attitude. Previously when this board has become toxic I've just stayed away. Seeing your passion over the last week has reminded me that when times are tough this board needs more level headed and realistic posters contributing. So thank you👍
Haha, all good mate. I thought most posters were probably getting sick of me posting, defending the coach, players and club so it’s good to see you share the same view.

You’ve absolutely nailed it in your post and i’m sure it’ll change quite a few perspectives for those that have a proper think about what you’ve written.

👍
 

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Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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Great post. I am disappointed where we are at but have not lost faith in Bevo. The age profile you provided is a relevant stat and we may be building a core for our next flag. The million $ question is how good will this core group be in a 2 years, who do we retain and how well to we draft and trade. It is very difficult for the likes of us, north and saints to recruit big name stars and we should only be paying realistic market prices to attract this type. Time will tell we obviously need some quality talls and some pace to add to what we have.
 

Snake Livermore

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The main caveat on this is we need some of the kids to become good enough they are permanent fixtures in the side. Otherwise we will continue to rotate our newest shiniest players in and out of the team, then shedding a few from the list each year, and we will be forever young. Do you really want to live forever? Forever...
 

bresker

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If you look back at season 2015, there were some magnificent victories with Murphy, Morris, Boyd orchestrating matters, backed up by a firing forward line. But there were some horrendous defeats too. West Coast 162 v Bulldogs 85, Round 21. We matched them for about a half of football then they destroyed us. Sound familiar? There was a very poor last round defeat to Brisbane; we got hammered by Port Adelaide and Hawthorn; only narrowly defeated St Kilda and Carlton in drab, drab games.

Yet next year we won the premiership!
 

LondonBulldog

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May 27, 2002
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Nice graph. Yet many factors will determine if we rise, not just our young kids (which will help).

For example, most keen dogs supporter could see the rise coming when Bevo took over. A good balance of older war horses (Morris, Boyd, Picken) and some young stars (Bont, Macrae, Boyd).

Now at the moment, there are still some good kids (Naughten, Richards, Smith and potential a few others) yet the older support is not there. Trengove couldn't get a game a Port and wouldn't play in most top 8 sides. Lloyd and Gowers who both are ok, have meant we have barely any forward pressure (vs Picken and Dalh), a hall mark of our premiership year. Plus our KP stocks are bare. Our midfield is too slow with too many stat getters and only one class onballer (Bont). We have allowed players such as Hunter develop a game that suits him but not to the greater good of the team. The fast past run from defence has turn into stop and prop and chip.

Therefore the trading (need at least two good players) and recruiting this year is paramount to go with any natural improvement in the youngsters. Please get a tall. Gardner will be a positive.
 

fpcookie

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For example, most keen dogs supporter could see the rise coming when Bevo took over. A good balance of older war horses (Morris, Boyd, Picken) and some young stars (Bont, Macrae, Boyd).
Really??? If I remember correctly, a large majority on here had us penciled in for last or second last for 2015 (myself included).
 

Chicago1

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Apr 19, 2001
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Your graph and explanation reminded me of high school maths. You explain stuff far better than Mr Dennerlein ever did in 1968. Before the Doggies and Cubs won their championships in 2016, I always used the phrase "I live in hope". Your post reminded me that I should start using it again. Thanks.
 

AJARWA

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Mar 2, 2012
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The thing I've found most disappointing about this year is our losses to the teams we were beating last year, like Suns, Carlton and North.

Has anyone done any age and experience graphs of our 22 and the opposing team's 22, for those games this year v last year?
 

Substance

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Aug 6, 2012
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A few of us on this board have been clued in to this for years. A few more needed reminding(even had to remind myself at times), but some will never accept the reality of how inexperienced we are. It's unrealistic to expect us to make finals, but to be honest I was hoping for a better year than we have had so far, given that we have had fewer injuries than ever before under Beveridge.
 

Proffessor

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The flaw with this reasoning is that our level of experience has been under Beveridge's control.

It is essentially his fault that we keep fielding such young teams.

It's like blaming your mediocre performance on an injury that you intentionally gave yourself before the game.

By handicapping the team in this way, the coach will look like a hero if we happen to win, but in reality he is preparing to fail.
 

Luder

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Jun 7, 2019
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The flaw with this reasoning is that our level of experience has been under Beveridge's control.

It is essentially his fault that we keep fielding such young teams.

It's like blaming your mediocre performance on an injury that you intentionally gave yourself before the game.

By handicapping the team in this way, the coach will look like a hero if we happen to win, but in reality he is preparing to fail.
That's an odd way to say we're rebuilding
 
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