Analysis Games Experience - A lesson in tempering expectations

[dogwatch]

The flaw with this reasoning is that our level of experience has been under Beveridge's control.

It is essentially his fault that we keep fielding such young teams.

It's like blaming your mediocre performance on an injury that you intentionally gave yourself before the game.

By handicapping the team in this way, the coach will look like a hero if we happen to win, but in reality he is preparing to fail.

Why would he want us to fail? (If that's what you're implying)

 

[fronkalicious]

Experience wins.

The problem is, we’ve pro-actively chosen to create such a young list. Terrible list management.

Stringer had to go. And we need class and goal-kicking, so I was happy to see dahlhaus gone too.

But not parlaying all of that cap space into quality, mature talent, has been an epic fail, and wasted golden Bontempelli years.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

The flaw with this reasoning is that our level of experience has been under Beveridge's control.

It is essentially his fault that we keep fielding such young teams.

It's like blaming your mediocre performance on an injury that you intentionally gave yourself before the game.

By handicapping the team in this way, the coach will look like a hero if we happen to win, but in reality he is preparing to fail.

Do you have any evidence to back up this opinion?

Last weekend West Coast had eight players in their side who had played 180 games.

We have one player on our entire list who has played 180 games (and he hasn't played a game this season).

Maybe we should have believed Chris Grant when he said that the Club saw this coming?

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Experience wins.

The problem is, we’ve pro-actively chosen to create such a young list. Terrible list management.

Stringer had to go. And we need class and goal-kicking, so I was happy to see dahlhaus gone too.

But not parlaying all of that cap space into quality, mature talent, has been an epic fail, and wasted golden Bontempelli years.

With the benefit of hindsight though Fronk of the players who have moved Clubs in the last two years, would any of them have made that big a difference?

You're a shrewd operator mate and you know that to get something you have to give something.

In 2017 Lever and Dev Smith were the best players to change clubs and they both cost 1st rounders (two in Lever's case). Knowing what we know now would you trade Naughton and Bailey Smith for Lever? Would you trade Naughts for Dev Smith?

I would argue that we managed to snare the best performed player from that trade period anyway in Crozier and he cost us bugger all.

2018 was similar. Shiel, May, Wingard all would have cost at least one first rounder and I'd much rather have Bailey Smith for the next dozen years. Once again (i know it's only early) but Sam Lloyd has well and truly outperformed Wingard at a fraction of the cost.

 

[bresker]

Bev isn't responsible for lst management or player recruitment. He has absolutely no choice but to play a young side. This isn't the premier league and we're not millionaires.

Patient sensais

 

[Proffessor]

Why would he want us to fail? (If that's what you're implying)

Failing isn't the aim, just a likely result of the strategy. The main aim of the strategy is to minimise expectations. As well as avoiding scrutiny it also maximises coaching credit should success actually occur.

 

[Proffessor]

That's an odd way to say we're rebuilding

And rebuilding is just a creative way of saying that we're not really trying at the moment.

 

[dogwatch]

Failing isn't the aim, just a likely result of the strategy. The main aim of the strategy is to minimise expectations. As well as avoiding scrutiny it also maximises coaching credit should success actually occur.

Yes, I suppose that's human nature. Most of us do it some stage or other. However it doesn't fit my understanding of Bevo's approach.

McCartney was the worst. He said don't expect anything for the next 5 years at which stage these lads will be physically and mentally ready for finals footy. Who's got 5 years to wait? Bevo could have said the same thing but he went out and got a flag in his second year. Yes, some of them were McCartney's class of 2011 but many of the stars were younger.

I certainly don't claim to understand what makes Bevo tick but it just seems unlikely to me.

 

[fronkalicious]

With the benefit of hindsight though Fronk of the players who have moved Clubs in the last two years, would any of them have made that big a difference?

You're a shrewd operator mate and you know that to get something you have to give something.

In 2017 Lever and Dev Smith were the best players to change clubs and they both cost 1st rounders (two in Lever's case). Knowing what we know now would you trade Naughton and Bailey Smith for Lever? Would you trade Naughts for Dev Smith?

I would argue that we managed to snare the best performed player from that trade period anyway in Crozier and he cost us bugger all.

2018 was similar. Shiel, May, Wingard all would have cost at least one first rounder and I'd much rather have Bailey Smith for the next dozen years. Once again (i know it's only early) but Sam Lloyd has well and truly outperformed Wingard at a fraction of the cost.

Lloyd and crozier are great examples. I agree. We needed to bring in more experience through free agency or cheaper trades.

We need to find an experienced ruckman, key defender and small forward this off-season, whatever the method. We can’t compete with these significant holes in our list and a ridiculous age profile.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Really??? If I remember correctly, a large majority on here had us penciled in for last or second last for 2015 (myself included).

Yeap, I said at the time Griffen leaving, Cooney moved on and a new coach was the best thing that could happen to the club.


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[The Buck]

And rebuilding is just a creative way of saying that we're not really trying at the moment.

So, dear Professor (correct spelling), what is your prescription for our club's improvement? What changes would you make? How would your plan be implemented?

 

[Proffessor]

Yes, I suppose that's human nature. Most of us do it some stage or other. However it doesn't fit my understanding of Bevo's approach.

McCartney was the worst. He said don't expect anything for the next 5 years at which stage these lads will be physically and mentally ready for finals footy. Who's got 5 years to wait? Bevo could have said the same thing but he went out and got a flag in his second year. Yes, some of them were McCartney's class of 2011 but many of the stars were younger.

I certainly don't claim to understand what makes Bevo tick but it just seems unlikely to me.

McCan'tney stopped trying halfway through his first season, and took the soft rebuild option from then on.

Beveridge tried reasonably hard for his first 2 years, but has been having an each way bet since early 2017.

He has always had a soft spot for the youth excuse card.

 

[Proffessor]

So, dear Professor (correct spelling), what is your prescription for our club's improvement? What changes would you make? How would your plan be implemented?

Simple. Stop prioritising youth development so much and pick our strongest 22 each match.

He hasn't done that since very early 2017.

 

[HahnPremium]

I think the inclusion of gardner straight away speaks volumes.
Volumes of uncertainty. Not saying whether he was a worthy inclusion or not but hints heavily at a plug the hole mentality.
Whatever plans were conceived beginning of the season have now been seen to be quickly changed and modified.
Which is worrying because our injury list is not that deep. Certainly not deep enough to radically include a mid season draftee who hasnt barnstormed selection.
It seems to me to be a revealing of a lot of doubts about the playstyle, the plan and the personnel.

 

[0utsider]

Simple. Stop prioritising youth development so much and pick our strongest 22 each match.

He hasn't done that since very early 2017.

Easy to make vague criticisms about overall strategy and vision, how about some specifics? Which players are you suggesting we aren't playing who are in our best 22? Crying out for Lin Jong and Fletcher Roberts are we? We need to accept that we just don't have the experience on our list anymore for a myriad of reasons and time and patience are the only way to solve that problem.

 

[Pugz89]

Simple. Stop prioritising youth development so much and pick our strongest 22 each match.

He hasn't done that since very early 2017.

Who said he isn't picking what he perceives to be his best 22 each week? Anything less would be counter productive, given he is so focused on building belief and getting buy in. It's frustrating as fk, but he's investing in the future by playing the team he is.

Right now, I'm not sure anyone could mount any strong cases that an under-21 player is keeping an over 25 player. Overall our whole list is young. Dickson, Suckling, Morris, Wood, Duryea, Lloyd and Trengove over 28, with the latter three brought in over the last two yrs to try and balance it out. Assuming I've not missed any, seven players 28 or older is crazy young. So Bevo hardly has an option with what he has at his disposal right now.

 

[AJARWA]

Easy to make vague criticisms about overall strategy and vision, how about some specifics? Which players are you suggesting we aren't playing who are in our best 22? Crying out for Lin Jong and Fletcher Roberts are we? We need to accept that we just don't have the experience on our list anymore for a myriad of reasons and time and patience are the only way to solve that problem.

It's not so much about playing experienced players but playing them in the right positions.

Trengove into the ruck and English ruck forward is the obvious one. I don't see why English needs to be first ruck. He's capable forward. Goldstein dominated us. Trengove was excellent v Stef Martin. And helped us have a good run in late 2018.

Lipinski and Smith at centre bounces when we've got some of the best inside mids in the league.

Hayes and Young debuting v Carlton also a poor decision imo.

But you make a good point. We are bereft of experience atm. There's not a lot of options.

 

[Proffessor]

Easy to make vague criticisms about overall strategy and vision, how about some specifics? Which players are you suggesting we aren't playing who are in our best 22? Crying out for Lin Jong and Fletcher Roberts are we? We need to accept that we just don't have the experience on our list anymore for a myriad of reasons and time and patience are the only way to solve that problem.

My criticisms are far from vague. Plenty of specific issues and alternatives discussed in other threads over an extended period.

Our list management has been poor obviously, letting far too many good mature players go and not replacing them with similar quality.

You mention Fletcher Roberts, if he had been given similar selection treatment to younger players then I would suggest that both he and the team would have benefited greatly. If he was younger his form would have seen him be a regular in the senior team.

Lewis Young's selection stretch in late 2017, and Lachie Young's stretch this year are clear examples of younger players being selected on perceived future potential rather than form to the detriment of the AFL team's prospects.

Footscray/VFL is our development team. Selection in the senior AFL team should be for those ready to play at the appropriate level.

It's not vague, and it shouldn't be hard to implement either.

 

[0utsider]

My criticisms are far from vague. Plenty of specific issues and alternatives discussed in other threads over an extended period.

Our list management has been poor obviously, letting far too many good mature players go and not replacing them with similar quality.

You mention Fletcher Roberts, if he had been given similar selection treatment to younger players then I would suggest that both he and the team would have benefited greatly. If he was younger his form would have seen him be a regular in the senior team.

Lewis Young's selection stretch in late 2017, and Lachie Young's stretch this year are clear examples of younger players being selected on perceived future potential rather than form to the detriment of the AFL team's prospects.

Footscray/VFL is our development team. Selection in the senior AFL team should be for those ready to play at the appropriate level.

It's not vague, and it shouldn't be hard to implement either.

There’s, no reason we have to commit to one extreme or the other. A team in our position needs balance between building for the future and creating a winning culture and high standards. We could play a slightly more short-term focused side (I still don’t think there are many major improvements to be made) and potentially (but still probably not) sneak into the 8, but I’d much rather see us experiment with the ability and potential of our list, struggle for a bit, and come out of it with a list than can compete at the top for years.

 

[Martyn_30_]

The problem is being a young team rarely translates into being a good team. The big issue at the club right now is how many players in their early twenties have shown signs but still have big question marks over them. If you end up with very little from this group there’s a huge hole in the list and you’re in the cycle of going young again.


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[Proffessor]

There’s, no reason we have to commit to one extreme or the other. A team in our position needs balance between building for the future and creating a winning culture and high standards. We could play a slightly more short-term focused side (I still don’t think there are many major improvements to be made) and potentially (but still probably not) sneak into the 8, but I’d much rather see us experiment with the ability and potential of our list, struggle for a bit, and come out of it with a list than can compete at the top for years.

No one is saying that we are at one extreme, or that we should go to the other.

Our balance is just a bit out as we are leaning too far to the youth development side, and not surprisingly we aren't winning regularly as a result.

Not calling for radical change just reasonable adjustments.

 

[bresker]

The problem is being a young team rarely translates into being a good team. The big issue at the club right now is how many players in their early twenties have shown signs but still have big question marks over them. If you end up with very little from this group there’s a huge hole in the list and you’re in the cycle of going young again.


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There's not much you can do about the players in their mid-twenties. Stick with them and hope it clicks; trade them or let their contracts expire and we rarely get good compo.

 

[dogwatch]

No one is saying that we are at one extreme, or that we should go to the other.

Our balance is just a bit out as we are leaning too far to the youth development side, and not surprisingly we aren't winning regularly as a result.

Not calling for radical change just reasonable adjustments.

What team would you put on the park next week against Carlton, Prof? Genuine question.

 

[Proffessor]

What team would you put on the park next week against Carlton, Prof? Genuine question.

Assuming players listed as fit or test on the current injury list are available I would go for something like the following:

B: Crozier Roberts Wood
HB: Suckling Cordy Williams
C: Liberatore Daniel Hunter
HF: Lloyd Naughton McClean
F: Dunkley Gowers Dickson
Fol: English Bontempelli Macrae
Int: Johannisen B.Smith Trengove Wallis
Em: Lewis Young Dale Lynch Sweet

Obviously there are a couple of potential injury concerns there, and 'talls' are in short supply (yes pun intended) due to some poor list management.
However, I think it would be a competitive side.

 

[Yojimbo]

C: Liberatore Daniel Hunter

Liberatore on the wing, Daniel in the guts, the MC needs you to McClean their act up.