Analysis Games Won Last 30 Games

[SpiritOfCarlton]

AFL is all about winning and losing.

Here is a graph covering over 120 years showing our Games won in the last 30 games.

Based on 120 years of history when we are up in this type of area we usually win premierships. This will be the only time in the entire history we have gone above 20 wins in 30 games and not won a flag. Graph goes from 2025 (left) to 1890s (right).

Apart from the 3 flags in a row in the 1900s and 1995 this is our third best result in terms of a 30 game form line in the history of the club.

 

[Thrawn]

Shouldn't this graph start from 1899?

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Shouldn't this graph start from 1899?

It does.

 

[Thrawn]

It does.

I meant left to right.

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

I meant left to right.

sigh If you cannot comprehend the other way I don't know what to say. Do you want me to make the graph go the other way?

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

 

[Thrawn]

sigh If you cannot comprehend the other way I don't know what to say. Do you want me to make the graph go the other way?

It's not about comprehension, it's just logical for the graph to begin that way. It is also an inherent bias for the human eye to view left to right if it's in chronological order.

Don't have to change things, I am just making a suggestion.

 

[GoBlues!]

AFL is all about winning and losing.

Here is a graph covering over 120 years showing our Games won in the last 30 games.

Based on 120 years of history when we are up in this type of area we usually win premierships. This will be the only time in the entire history we have gone above 20 wins in 30 games and not won a flag. Graph goes from 2025 (left) to 1890s (right).

Apart from the 3 flags in a row in the 1900s and 1995 this is our third best result in terms of a 30 game form line in the history of the club.

View attachment 2389193

The flaw in saying we’ve won premierships when we gone above 20 wins in 30 games is it doesn’t take into account over how many season/s those wins occurred.

Our recent good run of wins was split over two seasons (second half of 2023 and first half of 2024 seasons) which is not helpful to winning a premiership. In contrast in our last premiership year we had form over the whole season and only lost 2 games in the 1995 H&A season.

Therefore winning more than 20 times in 30 games is not necessarily a meaningful indicator of premiership readiness.

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

The flaw in saying we’ve won premierships when we gone above 20 wins in 30 games is it doesn’t take into account over how many season/s those wins occurred.

Our recent good run of wins was split over two seasons (second half of 2023 and first half of 2024 seasons) which is not helpful to winning a premiership. In contrast in our last premiership year we had form over the whole season and only lost 2 games in the 1995 H&A season.

Therefore winning more than 20 times in 30 games is not necessarily a meaningful indicator of premiership readiness.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

30 games could be a bit arbitrary. We'd need to look at which teams we beat and lost to, and where they were on the ladder when we played them.

2022 we had the late season fade, 2023 it was the 2nd quarter disaster, 2024 the second half disaster and 2025 was a disaster all around. I'm not sure what that 30 game stretch says aside from we missed a chance in a very open season due to that poor run from round 5 to 13 in 2023 and missing the double chance and home ground advantage.

We are a confidence team, but fall short in that area too often.

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

All I am pointing out is what has happened in the last few years is very rare historically. Measuring 20 or 30 games, does not matter. You can clearly see the three big droughts in the graph. We should be in a period of opportunity right now.

 

[Wickzki]

All I am pointing out is what has happened in the last few years is very rare historically. Measuring 20 or 30 games, does not matter. You can clearly see the three big droughts in the graph. We should be in a period of opportunity right now.

something, something list profile

 

[GoBlues!]

All I am pointing out is what has happened in the last few years is very rare historically. Measuring 20 or 30 games, does not matter. You can clearly see the three big droughts in the graph. We should be in a period of opportunity right now.

The optimism in that 2023/24 period is a distant memory SoC. Maybe that period was a false dawn an anomaly, because we’ve now lost 20 of the last 29 games.

 

[blue healer]

I'm not too sure where the historical figure of 14 wins in our last 30 games comes from. I can only find 10 and 6 of those were against bottom 3 teams, to make it worse 2 of the losses were also against bottom 3 sides.

I don't think we can gain any solace by looking at history, to paraphrase the industry super funds warning "past history is not an indicator of future returns".

 

[Blue1980]

We are 9-20 from our last 29 games, and we were 22-6 from our previous 28 before that. 8-1-16 previous 25 games before that.

 

[CJMB]

so basically, we're trending down, we missed '23, maybe things could look better in 2-8 years depending on the rebound cycle...

 

[JustaBattler]

View attachment 2389203

All that chart says (to me) is that Voss has lifted the side from bottom 4 to upper middling - the trend is positive. That could change depending on how ruthless Wright decides to get with fixing the bar bell nonsense of salary spend atm.

 

[Blue1980]

All that chart says (to me) is that Voss has lifted the side from bottom 4 to upper middling - the trend is positive. That could change depending on how ruthless Wright decides to get with fixing the bar bell nonsense of salary spend atm.

Or maybe we are heading back to bottom 4? 9 wins in last 29, 3 of those v West coast, 2 v north, 1 v Richmond, 1 v Essendon this year. That I don't think is all on Voss, it's been a lot of injury and loss of form and also our depth eroded in a big way last 2-3 years. Basically any type of injury run this year, we were ****ed as instead of being able to call on Dow, Setterfield, Martin (when fit), Cuningham (when fit), Marchbank (when fit), Kennedy, Owies etc we are calling upon greenhorns or battlers Will White, Evans, Lucas Camporeale, Matt Carroll, Moir, Wilson, HOK, HOF etc.