Prediction Garthy vs Balta

[Cdog71]

I would be pretty surprised if Garthwaite doesn’t carve out a 100+ AFL game career somewhere, whether it be at Richmond or at a combination of clubs. The minimum career I would expect barring injuries interfering would be along the lines of Kyle Cheney who was listed at three separate clubs over 11 seasons, playing 85 matches and never quite making it as a first choice player. You would presume he only cost about $200-250k per season, and filled a useful role at both Hawks and Crows. I would expect no worse than that for Garthwaite and quite possibly a lot more. This season will tell us a lot and I think he will have made a very positive impression by the end of it. He seems to judge the ball in the air exceptionally well, and is a highly committed player. Can also go forward and take a good grab. You just forget any disappointment from last season as he was badly underdone and refer back to how he was tracking beforehand.

Balta you would think at some point everything will line up for him, he will mature and develop, an opportunity will open up, and the selectors will identify the right role in the team. I think we are going to have a lot of fun watching him over the years. He appeals as a rare type, where there isn’t really a clear precedent in living memory in AFL ranks. Well beaten into a creditable third by Ben King and Sam Frost in the GF sprint shows he is mortal physically and if you watch it his running technique looks less efficient than the other runners, hinged forward at the hips and over-striding a bit. So even athletically he can tidy himself up in areas.



His mixture of speed, leap, strength and power, combined with aggressive instinct should amount to him being a star AFL player, I am confident of that. This is assuming a level of dedication to match his physical attributes of course...

I thought a similar thing when I saw the race MR sprinting is pretty technical when your looking to get good at it.
Menadue is a good example, I think he did have alot of sprinting exp but the thing about it, it doesn’t translate to gameplay well cause your holding a ball and you won’t often get that much of a straight line to head in so its hard to get to max velocity.
And thats the thing with Balta like you mentioned, he doesn’t sprint as such.
He can just run really bloody fast.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I thought a similar thing when I saw the race MR sprinting is pretty technical when your looking to get good at it.
Menadue is a good example, I think he did have alot of sprinting exp but the thing about it, it doesn’t translate to gameplay well cause your holding a ball and you won’t often get that much of a straight line to head in so its hard to get to max velocity.
And thats the thing with Balta like you mentioned, he doesn’t sprint as such.
He can just run really bloody fast.

I take your point Cdog, yet I do think it is important for footballers, or anyone doing sports where you need to run a lot, to develop efficient running technique. One of the key effects of this is you will use less energy covering the same distances, and for a player like Balta you would think this would assist his endurance, which is for now said to be a weakness. If you think about it though, say you are a backman deep against a forward and the opposition has a kick in. Your forward goes on a long searching run to lead for the kick in, anything up to 80 metres typically at full speed. You follow him. There is potentially a massive difference in the outcome of that play if your technique gets you even 2-3 extra feet. This could mean you effect a spoil where you otherwise couldn’t, or you make the kicker have to go lower increasing the chances of an intercept mark or you make the kicker look elsewhere and your forward is now a long way from home with no impact, and he knows you can run more efficiently than him so he is less motivated to get all the way back to his position in a hurry. Straight line running technique does matter in footy.

It is a good point you make about Menadue, and I am not entirely sure why his explosive speed didn’t translate into being a better footballer. I expect is was to do with lack of strength in a contest and lack of confidence to take tackles etc. Maybe also lack of ability to read play at the elite level.

 

[Cdog71]

One of the key effects of this is you will use less energy covering the same distances, and for a player like Balta you would think this would assist his endurance, which is for now said to be a weakness

100% agree
The more I think of Balta the more I think coaches have used him to win games rather than try and develop and make him learn to play positions well.

I had a look at Garth and whats interesting he was a reasonably successful fwd and got to TAC level as one (actually did pretty well at the draft combine for kicking accuracy even with his dbl handed drop, got equal second)
I think he may have stopped growing.
They made him a def and he came second in the BnF behind Clayton Oliver at Murray Bushrangers only lost 7% of 1v1’s for the season.
Makes me think he’s coachable.
I know all players have some responsability when playing but I don’t think I’ve seen Balta or Chol in a position where if they don’t do well it’ll affect the scoreboard.
Last thing about Garth and Balta...if you did the old footy on the floor battle, whoever comes back with it wins.
I dunno that Garth would win but I think he might be prepared to lose an ear to get it.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

100% agree
The more I think of Balta the more I think coaches have used him to win games rather than try and develop and make him learn to play positions well.

I had a look at Garth and whats interesting he was a reasonably successful fwd and got to TAC level as one (actually did pretty well at the draft combine for kicking accuracy even with his dbl handed drop, got equal second)
I think he may have stopped growing.
They made him a def and he came second in the BnF behind Clayton Oliver at Murray Bushrangers only lost 7% of 1v1’s for the season.
Makes me think he’s coachable.
I know all players have some responsability when playing but I don’t think I’ve seen Balta or Chol in a position where if they don’t do well it’ll affect the scoreboard.
Last thing about Garth and Balta...if you did the old footy on the floor battle, whoever comes back with it wins.
I dunno that Garth would win but I think he might be prepared to lose an ear to get it.

That is completely understandable considering how we were travelling early last year...

 

[Phar Ace]

Last thing about Garth and Balta...if you did the old footy on the floor battle, whoever comes back with it wins.
I dunno that Garth would win but I think he might be prepared to lose an ear to get it.

And I think if you had them do ten, Balta would look glorious in 4, while Garth would scrounge out 6.

 

[mopsy]

Cant see Garthwaite at this stage making it.

Has never for me projected fwd as a genuine AFL KPD. Work rate and desperation can only take you so far.

Still looks undersized is not the quickest or most athletic bloke going around.

I start with what attributes does he have that suggest he can play kpp at afl level and i cannot find too many.

The next question is what attributes does he need to play on third tall types.
Maybe the answer is to play him as a fwd.

 

[Roksman]

Don't forget that Garthwaite had a very interrupted preseason - Achilles issues from memory.

Give the kid some time, no need to write him off yet.

 

[db26]

Nothing wrong with his kicking it might be awkward,but hits his targets I give him that.People say not much going for him I disagree.The kids a natural footballer cant teach that reads the play well and knows when to punch or mark got better now.193 cm isn't small for a key back these days it's about how the player defends not only height.Leo Barry was on the the small side, but would take most forwards to the cleaners.The other thing to he is very coachable Garth.

 

[mopsy]

On Balta he actually reminds me as being a slightly taller bigger Trent Croad

 

[mopsy]

Nothing wrong with his kicking it might be awkward,but hits his targets I give him that.People say not much going for him I disagree.The kids a natural footballer cant teach that reads the play well and knows when to punch or mark got better now.193 cm isn't small for a key back these days it's about how the player defends not only height.Leo Barry was on the the small side, but would take most forwards to the cleaners.The other thing to he is very coachable Garth.

Leo Barry was only 184cm and believe it or not was rarely asked to play kpp only out of neccesity when injuries hit.
Athletically Barry and Garthwaite are chalk and cheese.

Even though we have had this discussion over his height hes listed at 191cm but even if 193 the two heights are okay to play kpp as long as they have other attributes to offset that.
Garthwaite has neither the size or pace/leap to suggest he should be playing kpd at afl level.
His 9 senior games were not good in fact even for a new player they bordered on cringeworthy.

Now im not having a go here im just commenting on what ive seen as far as his senior games go and his physical attributes to play as a defender.

I just dont see it with him, and cant see where the improvement will come from because of the lack of attributes.
I really hope he proves me wrong because with Rance gone Astbury getting close to 30 we only really have Balta and Nyuon in the system who look capable at least the physical attributes for the game side of it.

I actually think we should have gone out and bought in a cheap short term mature kpd like Sam Frost who went to Hawthorn or even Hartley who was a delisted free agent and if an emergency hit could play but would still guide the kids in the vfl.

 

[sante]

Who is to say either will be in the 22? Rance was replaced last year without either

 

[mopsy]

Who is to say either will be in the 22? Rance was replaced last year without either

Do you really think that is what the club is after/wanted or that it was ideal.

We won a flag with only JR as a genuine tall fwd it didnt stop the club going out and getting Lynch.While it worked the club clearly didnt think it was ideal going with just one kpf.

For what it is worth when all four talls Rance, Grimes, Astbury and Broad were fit or not suspended all four were played at every opportunity.
It was clearly the structure they preferred. Injury and circumstance dictated last yr that this was not the case and there was no one to take Rances spot. Garthwaite showed he was not up to it yet in how many games? and Balta was not played there until too late.

 

[tiger_tough]

Don't forget that Garthwaite had a very interrupted preseason - Achilles issues from memory.

Give the kid some time, no need to write him off yet.

That's it.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Cant see Garthwaite at this stage making it.

Has never for me projected fwd as a genuine AFL KPD. Work rate and desperation can only take you so far.

Still looks undersized is not the quickest or most athletic bloke going around.

I start with what attributes does he have that suggest he can play kpp at afl level and i cannot find too many.

The next question is what attributes does he need to play on third tall types.
Maybe the answer is to play him as a fwd.

Yes I just can’t see him filling in a kpb role or as a 3rd tall down back.
Having watched him a bit in the 2s last season is a good one on one player but lacks closing speed and vertical leap.

 

[sante]

Do you really think that is what the club is after/wanted or that it was ideal.

We won a flag with only JR as a genuine tall fwd it didnt stop the club going out and getting Lynch.While it worked the club clearly didnt think it was ideal going with just one kpf.

For what it is worth when all four talls Rance, Grimes, Astbury and Broad were fit or not suspended all four were played at every opportunity.
It was clearly the structure they preferred. Injury and circumstance dictated last yr that this was not the case and there was no one to take Rances spot. Garthwaite showed he was not up to it yet in how many games? and Balta was not played there until too late.

I’m just saying that if the club think neither are ready, we won’t play either for the sake of having that extra tall. Grimes, Astbury and Broad can cope with it

 

[Grrr]

Do you really think that is what the club is after/wanted or that it was ideal.

We won a flag with only JR as a genuine tall fwd it didnt stop the club going out and getting Lynch.While it worked the club clearly didnt think it was ideal going with just one kpf.

For what it is worth when all four talls Rance, Grimes, Astbury and Broad were fit or not suspended all four were played at every opportunity.
It was clearly the structure they preferred. Injury and circumstance dictated last yr that this was not the case and there was no one to take Rances spot. Garthwaite showed he was not up to it yet in how many games? and Balta was not played there until too late.

Agree with most of what you are saying about Garth other than the fact that he had almost no preseason last year due to achilles. If there is one injury that can slow a player it is the achilles. Astbury copped a lot of criticism on here regarding his turning circle of the Queen Mary after he was injured, so I was not that surprised when he got games last year, when he was clearly underdone but played out of necessity, that he looked way off the pace. Wasn't even playing well in the ressies.

So you'd expect a much fitter, leaner, stronger and more agile player this season to last. He looked that way on the website video. He would have worked on that over the preseason.

His strength are his running ability (stamina) and his body use. Knows how to read the ball in the air and use his body to protect the space. Very similar to Astbury. He is 2cm short and very little spring (achilles wouldn't have helped in that regard), so like you say he has a lot to prove. But it is not like he has no AFL attributes, just needs to improve on the ones he is deficient in. You'd think a good preseason will help in that regard. One thing is for sure, he will be a better player this year than he has ever been before.

Having said that, like you, I still want Balta at CHB.

 

[mopsy]

I’m just saying that if the club think neither are ready, we won’t play either for the sake of having that extra tall. Grimes, Astbury and Broad can cope with it

I think your wrong there. Imo they will play both Garthwaite and Balta and get as many games as possible into them and hope they reach the standard. Later in the yr if neither have taken the step up then they will head into finals with what they had this yr. They will do this for several reasons and not the least is their preffered option is to go with four talls that includes two genuine sized kpd,s.

Theres also If Astbury in particular goes down im sure the club will want to have players there coming in or taking over his role with afl experince behind them.

Interesting point Garthwaite played with Broad, Grimes and Astbury in the team for 4 of his 7 games. The only times it changed was when one or two of the others were injured.

 

[Dr Tigris]

With Rance gone I suspect that the club will be after a 195cm+ KPD next off season. Might be Garth and Balta have to wait a little if we can grab a genuine quality young KPD.

 

[Phar Ace]

With Rance gone I suspect that the club will be after a 195cm+ KPD next off season. Might be Garth and Balta have to wait a little if we can grab a genuine quality young KPD.

I personally hope we have another look at Dyson Hilder from SA - I know he was overlooked by every Club, but I still think he has attributes worth considering, especially as a replacement to Astbury some day

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

Not really. We've won 2 flags in that time and we've got the best back line in the comp.

I still have high hopes for Garth.

I agree with the sentiment that Balta could be anything but there have been plenty athletic freaks in the past that had the same potential and go on to play 20-30 odd games then disappear into the wilderness. Hopefully he can develop his consistency this year.

most those athletic freaks didn’t get as much game time as balta has , because balls has a bit more than athlericism to his advantage. Don’t like the McBean personality comparisons, stories, but he’s already gone past him anyway

 

[Dr Tigris]

I personally hope we have another look at Dyson Hilder from SA - I know he was overlooked by every Club, but I still think he has attributes worth considering, especially as a replacement to Astbury some day

I'm talking of a similar player to Tom Lynch, except KPD. Top end guy to take that key position spot for the next 5+ years. We'll have $, and a need.

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

I personally hope we have another look at Dyson Hilder from SA - I know he was overlooked by every Club, but I still think he has attributes worth considering, especially as a replacement to Astbury some day

friend of yours?

 

[tiger_tough]

most those athletic freaks didn’t get as much game time as balta has , because balls has a bit more than athlericism to his advantage. Don’t like the McBean personality comparisons, stories, but he’s already gone past him anyway

I didn't mention McBean.

Remember David Gourdis? Athletic freak, same size. Smashed the draft camp from memory. Low footy IQ, only played a handful of games.

Hopefully Balta can go much further.

 

[Grrr]

I didn't mention McBean.

Remember David Gourdis? Athletic freak, same size. Smashed the draft camp from memory. Low footy IQ, only played a handful of games.

Hopefully Balta can go much further.

View attachment 805679

A closer comparison is Rance. Both said by some to possess great athleticism and size but lack footy smarts. If anything Balta is further advanced than Rance at the same stage.

 

[tiger_tough]

A closer comparison is Rance. Both said by some to possess great athleticism and size but lack footy smarts. If anything Balta is further advanced than Rance at the same stage.

A closer comparison or a more hopeful comparison? I can see him going either way. Fingers crossed.