List Mgmt. Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
33,568
62,249
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
 

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Cataholic

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 11, 2009
17,239
19,511
a happy wanderer
AFL Club
Geelong
Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Excellent post.

Well constructed, and very informative.
 

fpm84

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2005
11,166
25,346
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
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Interesting analysis and certainly true about our poor recruiting from 2011-2014.

Still, it is also worth noting that by early in the the 2020 season, Parfitt and Narkle will both enter this age bracket and within 12 months Ratugolea and Henry will be there too. These four players are now entrenched in our best 22 and seem likely to play crucial roles for us over the next 5-10 years.

It would be nice to see us target some players in this age range during trade period. For example, Sam Powell-Pepper (22 in January) has stagnated at Port but clearly has plenty of ability.
 

Partridge

Hall of Famer
Nov 12, 2002
35,971
38,942
AFL Club
Geelong
Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​
That's true but it's going to shift pretty quickly. Tuohy, Henderson, and Scott Selwood all turn 30 before the start of next season. Dangerfield will be 30 in early April next season. The 4 suddenly becomes 8, although I guess you could more reasonably expect it to be 6 if Taylor and Ablett give it away. The 26-29 cohort will also lose 4 as a result.


What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
It's going to be very interesting to see which way they go. And which players in that younger category get opportunities.

Good analysis.
 

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
33,568
62,249
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
That's true but it's going to shift pretty quickly. Tuohy, Henderson, and Scott Selwood all turn 30 before the start of next season. Dangerfield will be 30 in early April next season. The 4 suddenly becomes 8, although I guess you could more reasonably expect it to be 6 if Taylor and Ablett give it away. The 26-29 cohort will also lose 4 as a result.
Yep, it’s a snapshot in time so needs to be looked at as such. But time stands still for no one. Other teams aren’t full of Benjamin Buttons either.
 

FredLeDeux

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 2, 2012
24,947
36,899
AFL Club
Geelong
Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
It's interesting that Collingwood, Richmond and WC are also in the bottom half on the 22-25 list, with GWS also slap in the middle.
 

cats_09

Spec Moderator
Jun 21, 2011
15,342
27,842
AFL Club
Geelong
Thanks for the analysis CE

Seems similar to a few years ago where we had a lack of quality players in the 26 - 29 age gap and that went back to the 2007 - 2009 drafts. We addressed those issues at the time by hitting the FA & trade table in 2015 where we targeted Danger, Henderson, Scooter & Smith - those 4 players are all born between Dec 89 & April 90, so surely not a coincidence they were all bought in during the same period

Now our gap is with the younger age bracket, so it will be interesting to see how the club tries to address that issue - will they look at fringe players from other clubs who are in that age bracket, or do they also look at using later draft picks to target VFL (and equivalent leagues) players?
 

romeohwho

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2015
9,040
9,430
AFL Club
Geelong
It's interesting that Collingwood, Richmond and WC are also in the bottom half on the 22-25 list, with GWS also slap in the middle.
WC. Interesting -and the trade guy on radio this morning said WC have a stack of young players and great depth there. So he must have been referring to real youth.
 

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
33,568
62,249
Melbourne
AFL Club
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It's interesting that Collingwood, Richmond and WC are also in the bottom half on the 22-25 list, with GWS also slap in the middle.
There’s a lot of interesting stuff about other teams I learnt from this exercise.

Adelaide and Hawthorn are stuffed.

Brisbane are poised nicely but did they have a Melbourne 2018 year?

Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and Bulldogs have nice profiles for 2021-23.

Carlton and Gold Coast are miles off.

Some teams seem to keep it together over long periods of time - Collingwood, Geelong, West Cost. Richmond are starting to do the same.
 

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cats_09

Spec Moderator
Jun 21, 2011
15,342
27,842
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There’s a lot of interesting stuff about other teams I learnt from this exercise.

Adelaide and Hawthorn are stuffed.

Brisbane are poised nicely but did they have a Melbourne 2018 year?

Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and Bulldogs have nice profiles for 2021-23.

Carlton and Gold Coast are miles off.

Some teams seem to keep it together over long periods of time - Collingwood, Geelong, West Cost. Richmond are starting to do the same.
The hardest thing for them going into 2020 is that they will have a much harder drawer/fixture than they did this year, just due to where they finished the season versus their efforts from last year

They got a few really good wins early in the year when other teams weren't at their best and then rode that wave of momentum to the finals - how do they go next year when they will be more the hunted and not necessarily have things as easy.

Not expecting them to drop to 17th like Melbourne this year, but if they don't get off to the a good start then they could find themselves in that 5th - 12th finish
 

Baudolino

Premiership Player
Apr 20, 2011
4,350
10,497
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Brisbane are poised nicely but did they have a Melbourne 2018 year?
They're my early, pre-trade period tip to slide down the ladder next year. Not a Melbourne-esque "fall off the face of the earth" type slide, but a slide from 2nd to either bottom half of the eight or just outside the eight.
 

year of the cat

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 27, 2006
18,379
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Great analysis. What we don't want to have happen is to be trading into that 22-25 category just for the sake of it if a player becomes available. If they are quality and we can get them for the right price then consider it. Those players though, if quality, tend to command a high price. Maybe we also just need to be prepared to take a bit of pain for the greater long term good? It doesn't need to be long term. It's been shown a few times recently with Bulldogs that you can return quickly to the top after being down for a short period.

I'm optimistic about our medium term future. I think we will have a significant fall over the next couple of years (particularly if Kelly goes) but we have enough decent youth to bounce back fairly quickly.
 

Baudolino

Premiership Player
Apr 20, 2011
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Don't the Hawk only have 8 players over 30 years of age?

Henderson 31
Puopolo 31
Stratton 30
Smith 30
Birchall 31
Frawley 31
Burgoyne 36
McEvoy 30

Who am I missing?
 

stac

Rookie
Aug 30, 2019
30
43
AFL Club
Geelong
In relation to this you should also look at the players in each bracket and the potential they have to make best 22 or 26
we currently have about 9 guys under 22 that either play or would if available.
 

lionbear

Geelong Member from 2016
Feb 25, 2007
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I have thought from about July this year, our drafting and trading the next month is the most important since 2011.

We have a good crop of kids, but how we manage the replacements for Selwood, Hawkins, Ablett and Kelly will decide if we push for flags or move into mid table the next 4 or 5 years.

The key posiition we get this year via draft needs to be a 10 year player.
 

romeohwho

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2015
9,040
9,430
AFL Club
Geelong
There’s a lot of interesting stuff about other teams I learnt from this exercise.

Adelaide and Hawthorn are stuffed.

Brisbane are poised nicely but did they have a Melbourne 2018 year?

Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and Bulldogs have nice profiles for 2021-23.

Carlton and Gold Coast are miles off.

Some teams seem to keep it together over long periods of time - Collingwood, Geelong, West Cost. Richmond are starting to do the same.
It’s Balme. We have to get him back. ;) Richmond are like page for page our story.
 

Wojcinski

If your dad has no beard, you've got two mums
Aug 14, 2011
12,558
17,259
AFL Club
Geelong
My early, pre-trade/draft best 22 for 2020 including their 2020 end of season age

Assuming GAJ and HT retire and Kelly is traded

B Tuohy (30) Blicavs (29) Bews (26)
HB Stewart (27) Kolo (25) O'Connor (23)
C Selwood (32) Narkle (22) Clark (19)
HF Dahlhaus (28) Sav (22) Parfitt (22)
F Hawkins (32) Rohan (29) Miers (21)

R Stanley (29) Dangerfield (30) Duncan (29)

Int Menegola (28) Guthrie (28) Atkins (25) Henry (22)

Average age is 26.2. Good chance that we get at least one draftee who would likely come into the team at the expense of Menegola/Tuohy/Guthrie thus lowering the average age to 25.7 assuming an 18 year old.
 

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
33,568
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What we don't want to have happen is to be trading into that 22-25 category just for the sake of it if a player becomes available. If they are quality and we can get them for the right price then consider it. Those players though, if quality, tend to command a high price.
Agree. The point of getting players in this bracket is so they develop into the core group of your Premiership tilt when they reach 26-29. So I would be looking for quality over quantity but at the same time would be willing to pay the price for that quality.
 

lionbear

Geelong Member from 2016
Feb 25, 2007
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Don't the Hawk only have 8 players over 30 years of age?

Henderson 31
Puopolo 31
Stratton 30
Smith 30
Birchall 31
Frawley 31
Burgoyne 36
McEvoy 30

Who am I missing?
Roughead may have been counted even though he would not be on the list, was looking through there list seeing if there is another over 30, they have alot of players born in 1991.
 

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