List Mgmt. Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

cynical

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Dec 18, 2009
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the problem is that even though we have a large group of 21 and under players most of them are late picks who wont make it
our mid age group is also filled with list cloggers

we lack quality players in the prime 22-27 age group (the type of players who can run out full games in multiple finals, like GWS)

as far as a high correlation with 26+ and up players thats because most clubs who are contending have a lot of A graders who still have it and a group of core players in the prime age group to do the heavy lifting, our 28+ group is filled with cheap mercenaries and our prime age group is slim

you dont win flags when more than half your older players are guys like Hendo, Scooter, Rohan, Tuohy, Smith etc

the only good thing about our list is having Clark, Miers, Sav, Parfitt, Narkle and Constable all showing they have talent, all we can do is build under those guys

it's a waste of time to use resources on players older because we simply dont have enough talent to win a flag

focus on players 22 and under and in 6 years we might have a good enough group to contend (would need a huge amount of luck)

or continue what we are doing and keep getting found out in finals, cos B graders with poor skills get found out in finals
 

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year of the cat

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Agree. The point of getting players in this bracket is so they develop into the core group of your Premiership tilt when they reach 26-29. So I would be looking for quality over quantity but at the same time would be willing to pay the price for that quality.
The one advantage of recruiting players at that age is that there is exposed form. The disadvantage is that you pay that premium. You also have to convince these players that you are still a desirable destination for them. I wonder whether we still are?
 

Baudolino

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Apr 20, 2011
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the problem is that even though we have a large group of 21 and under players most of them are late picks who wont make it
our mid age group is also filled with list cloggers

we lack quality players in the prime 22-27 age group (the type of players who can run out full games in multiple finals, like GWS)

as far as a high correlation with 26+ and up players thats because most clubs who are contending have a lot of A graders who still have it and a group of core players in the prime age group to do the heavy lifting, our 28+ group is filled with cheap mercenaries and our prime age group is slim
So to summarise:

1. Our u-21 group sucks
2. Our 22-27 group sucks
3. Our 28+ group sucks

A highly nuanced take from you as usual.
 

catempire

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Mar 20, 2004
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The one advantage of recruiting players at that age is that there is exposed form. The disadvantage is that you pay that premium. You also have to convince these players that you are still a desirable destination for them. I wonder whether we still are?
In part, that’s what is behind the philosophy of remaining a finals contender. It’s much harder to attract players if you can’t sell the message that they’ll be playing finals every year. This is the problem clubs like St Kilda and North have got into.
 

Strange Cat

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They're my early, pre-trade period tip to slide down the ladder next year. Not a Melbourne-esque "fall off the face of the earth" type slide, but a slide from 2nd to either bottom half of the eight or just outside the eight.
Plus they will facing a harder draw next year, i was having the exact same conversation with a mate the other night regarding Brissy
 

year of the cat

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In part, that’s what is behind the philosophy of remaining a finals contender. It’s much harder to attract players if you can’t sell the message that they’ll be playing finals every year. This is the problem clubs like St Kilda and North have got into.
Is just playing finals enough or do you also need to be seen to be building to be a legitimate flag contender as well? I agree that the likes of Saints/North struggle due in part to that - also I'd say it's because they aren't really sexy clubs with big fan bases.

Geelong also can promote it's country lifestyle to those players that don't want to live in the big smoke. I think our recent history (1989-2019) is demonstration though that in the main we are a well managed, professional club and therefore should still be a desirable club to move to.
 

catempire

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Is just playing finals enough or do you also need to be seen to be building to be a legitimate flag contender as well? I agree that the likes of Saints/North struggle due in part to that - also I'd say it's because they aren't really sexy clubs with big fan bases.

Geelong also can promote it's country lifestyle to those players that don't want to live in the big smoke. I think our recent history (1989-2019) is demonstration though that in the main we are a well managed, professional club and therefore should still be a desirable club to move to.
I think players (and clubs more generally) see playing finals as a chance to be a legitimate flag contender. I think Geelong’s reputation on that front is second to none. I think the fan take on this issue is far removed from the industry.
 

cynical

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Dec 18, 2009
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So to summarise:

1. Our u-21 group sucks
2. Our 22-27 group sucks
3. Our 28+ group sucks

A highly nuanced take from you as usual.
our 21 and under group has some talent, but most of them are list cloggers

at this stage there are 6/18 that look decent (i dont rate henry)

the rest are mostly late draft picks and rookie upgrades so dont expect a good return out of them

so far only Clark looks to have genuine star ability, hopefully that changes but odds aren't in our favour
 

lionbear

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Feb 25, 2007
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They're my early, pre-trade period tip to slide down the ladder next year. Not a Melbourne-esque "fall off the face of the earth" type slide, but a slide from 2nd to either bottom half of the eight or just outside the eight.
Thats my feel and am prepared for it.

Just feel we are in a take 1 step back to take 2 steps forward position.
 

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cats_09

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Jun 21, 2011
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I would have thought he would have been removed already:)
Under the official terms of the AFLPA CBA, contracts run through to October
and the first list lodgement date

We all know he won't be on their list next year, but technically he's still there for now
 

Lana

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Jul 23, 2010
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Long term my only real concern is that we have nothing between Kolodjashnij (24 and half by round 1 next year) and Stewart(27 by round 1 next year) which was pretty much the gap in the middle that we had back in 2015 so we're definitely going to look at topping up. On the plus side we have a better younger group now then what we had back then. I feel that when we do go down we will have avoided a full rebuild.
 

you pick one

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In part, that’s what is behind the philosophy of remaining a finals contender. It’s much harder to attract players if you can’t sell the message that they’ll be playing finals every year. This is the problem clubs like St Kilda and North have got into.
It depends a bit on the wins you do have though,The Hawks finished out of the 8 this year but, with wins over GWSx2,Geelong,west Coast and Collingwood they will still be a genuine chance to draw good players
 

Cosmic Energy

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Sep 9, 2009
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My early, pre-trade/draft best 22 for 2020 including their 2020 end of season age

Assuming GAJ and HT retire and Kelly is traded

B Tuohy (30) Blicavs (29) Bews (26)
HB Stewart (27) Kolo (25) O'Connor (23)
C Selwood (32) Narkle (22) Clark (19)
HF Dahlhaus (28) Sav (22) Parfitt (22)
F Hawkins (32) Rohan (29) Miers (21)

R Stanley (29) Dangerfield (30) Duncan (29)

Int Menegola (28) Guthrie (28) Atkins (25) Henry (22)

Average age is 26.2. Good chance that we get at least one draftee who would likely come into the team at the expense of Menegola/Tuohy/Guthrie thus lowering the average age to 25.7 assuming an 18 year old.
I’m thinking unless we can bring in another ready-to-go good quality small forward, GAJ should go on. He kicked and setup a lot of goals. I don’t see anyone in the 2s who’s going to fill the void. As Miers, Narkle, Parfitt continue to develop and improve, they will take a bit more of the load maybe we can manage him more through the year to get a bit more out of him at the end, should we make it. If Cocky comes back and plays a full year and is kicking goals, and Rohan puts together a whole year kicking goals, then Gaz might start to struggle with Dalhaus and Atkins also doing their pressure thing. The MC can start to make the tough calls during the year. We’ve carried Scott Selwood for a long time, so perhaps one more year for Gaz knowing that he could find himself out of the team at times if all goes well for our list.

We’re also very light on for good ball users. I think we underused him at times through the year when we should have got the ball in his hands.
 

Pivo

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In part, that’s what is behind the philosophy of remaining a finals contender. It’s much harder to attract players if you can’t sell the message that they’ll be playing finals every year. This is the problem clubs like St Kilda and North have got into.
I understand where you are coming from but Todd Goldstein & Shaun Higgins don't really agree with your assertion.

Which, looking at your research, might have been a good thing.

We still need a ruckman though...
 

CatRiot

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Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Its a bit Bipolar the Cats list by Age Brackets.
 

Whit3y

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What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Good post

Some of us, not many but some here have been fairly critical of Wells during those 5 years that you have mentioned.
 

00VicWard001

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Sep 3, 2011
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Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Great post.

Note the other teams who are low on the 22-25 year old list. Richmond, WC, Collingwood. I'd say the top teams are all having this issue. But is it an issue? Modern trading, drafting of state league players, trading of pre-selection players and the mid-season draft allows this age-group to be picked up more easily than ever before - without putting in the development time from when they were 18 years old.

I would say, based on something Chris Scott said about the great work the recruiting team did to find Kelly - we'll be looking to grab one or two of these types from the VFL.
 

Moggy

Premiership Player
Sep 7, 2012
3,222
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Geelong
In relation to this you should also look at the players in each bracket and the potential they have to make best 22 or 26
we currently have about 9 guys under 22 that either play or would if available.
Absolutely agree.

It would be great to see a percentage of total games played per age category per team. As it stands you don’t know if the youth are just making up the numbers.

Anyone got a spare afternoon? ;-)
 

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
41,183
38,832
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Yes ..very good post CE.. and you may well be right. I just read phantom draft the had a ping at our >23's really you break on age is a better descriptor..

I will say the transition group from freshmen to sophomores. (18-21>22-25) seems to be highly affected by the lack of quality..thru lack of quality picks or poor selections ; we have been very good at finding moneyball in that ready to play ..the Stewarts and Menegola's etc.. but not so good at drafting guys who transition into the mainstays pre-2016.
I like what we have done the last 3 years even though I feel we are devoid of gun young early pick mids..but we are playing catch up to a degree. So ..if you are correct then we will look at the likes of Taylor and Cuttler etc becuase of the hole that the Thurlow<>Lang era has left..
 
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