List Mgmt. Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

Turbocat

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Thanks for the analysis CE

Seems similar to a few years ago where we had a lack of quality players in the 26 - 29 age gap and that went back to the 2007 - 2009 drafts. We addressed those issues at the time by hitting the FA & trade table in 2015 where we targeted Danger, Henderson, Scooter & Smith - those 4 players are all born between Dec 89 & April 90, so surely not a coincidence they were all bought in during the same period

Now our gap is with the younger age bracket, so it will be interesting to see how the club tries to address that issue - will they look at fringe players from other clubs who are in that age bracket, or do they also look at using later draft picks to target VFL (and equivalent leagues) players?
There has been noise they need 3 picks in draft for cap reasons.. but would it surprise if they would like to solve the ruck issue with a player in that 23-25 range rather than a draft pick? Danger is a win but how often is someone in the AA side want to specifically come to gee... Henderson has been average to slight loss.. 50 games..not ideal for a r1..but how does it compare to Lang for eg. SS ..FA but a fail. Smith much the same but low cost..
The Pods type are rare .....

Imo ..if we look at the easiest way to solve this issue is next year... several good FA type next year ..in the right age group.. ..and we just suck it up in 2020..draft as good as we can and plan for a FA attack in 12 months time..
 

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Turbocat

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The one advantage of recruiting players at that age is that there is exposed form. The disadvantage is that you pay that premium. You also have to convince these players that you are still a desirable destination for them. I wonder whether we still are?
Yep you pay a premium and you have to have them want you...hence our Boomerang Falcon approach. As yet we have not had one FA of the quality of Lynch or Buddy ... they are game changes. If Cameron and Gaff and Whitfield were all FA next year ..and all wanted Geelong ..can you imagine the supercharging it would do to our side. Its a sugar hit temptation imo..as its highly unlikely to get on let alone 3.. where as generally we do have a good keep them once they are here culture... one can even feel that someone like Kelly is teetering.. one more year and we may have him for good.
 

Turbocat

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Long term my only real concern is that we have nothing between Kolodjashnij (24 and half by round 1 next year) and Stewart(27 by round 1 next year) which was pretty much the gap in the middle that we had back in 2015 so we're definitely going to look at topping up. On the plus side we have a better younger group now then what we had back then. I feel that when we do go down we will have avoided a full rebuild.
No Dangers wanting to come back this time however ..
 

CatToTheFuture

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Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​

Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.

Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​

So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.

Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​

That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.

St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​

What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.

What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
That is some good insight. I like the idea of bulking out that side of the list with some of the following names:

Luke Partington - recent Margarey medalist turns 23 start of next season. Free as a delisted player
Luke Reynolds - highest goal shot accuracy of any forward at any level and averaging 2+ in the premiership sanfl side. Free as a delisted player and 24 years old
Ben Sokol - kicked 6 goals and was BOG in wafl GF last week. 24 years old. Draft
Jake Riccardi is another name thrown around though he's younger but likely to get some draft attention

There's options around we could give a run to
 

Turbocat

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That is some good insight. I like the idea of bulking out that side of the list with some of the following names:

Luke Partington - recent Margarey medalist turns 23 start of next season. Free as a delisted player
Luke Reynolds - highest goal shot accuracy of any forward at any level and averaging 2+ in the premiership sanfl side. Free as a delisted player and 24 years old
Ben Sokol - kicked 6 goals and was BOG in wafl GF last week. 24 years old. Draft
Jake Riccardi is another name thrown around though he's younger but likely to get some draft attention

There's options around we could give a run to

 

CatToTheFuture

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Was was also named CHF in the SANFL team of the year after kicking 45. There FF kicked 46. Was delisted by Carlton 2014 so can choose to go to any club he wants as per supplemental listing rules.

He is 100% a moneyball gamble. He doesn't look too quick and I'm not sure how much defensive pressure he adds but he has a pretty terrific left foot. But do you want someone who at 24 has some issues you might be able to with through and a couple of neat skills or a kid that is green as grass but 5 years younger? If we've got a spot for a forward and the choice is pick 65 or this guy I think it's not an awful choice

What's that online news article paywall viewer site? There's an article I'm trying to read on him about his kicking accuracy
 

Turbocat

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Was was also named CHF in the SANFL team of the year after kicking 45. There FF kicked 46. Was delisted by Carlton 2014 so can choose to go to any club he wants as per supplemental listing rules.

He is 100% a moneyball gamble. He doesn't look too quick and I'm not sure how much defensive pressure he adds but he has a pretty terrific left foot. But do you want someone who at 24 has some issues you might be able to with through and a couple of neat skills or a kid that is green as grass but 5 years younger? If we've got a spot for a forward and the choice is pick 65 or this guy I think it's not an awful choice

What's that online news article paywall viewer site? There's an article I'm trying to read on him about his kicking accuracy
The issue would be a pressure mindset at afl level... no chf that for sure... it like the rcuk that just won the award on wa being 194cm...
if we had a spot..not the worst option I have seen....


The numbers that show Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds is the leading sharpshooter in the land
North’s Ben Brown is the AFL’s most accurate goalkicker. But an SANFL sharpshooter from the Bay holds the national title of most accurate in senior league football.

A South Australian left-footer can lay claim to being the best kick for goal in Australia.
Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds — who sits equal-second in the race for the Ken Farmer Medal as the top goalkicker in the SANFL — is statistically the most accurate shot in the land when it comes to major Australian Football competitions.

Exclusive Champion Data statistics show that no player who has been a regular goalkicker in the AFL or State Leagues in the past four seasons has been such a Deadeye Dick in front of the sticks as Reynolds.

The 24-year-old is, in fact, in a class of his own.

The former Port Adelaide Magpie and Carlton rookie boasts a stunning accuracy percentage of 77.1 from 118 scoring shots — nearly six per cent higher than the next-ranked player, veteran

Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds kicks for goal. Picture: Flash Gordon Photography


Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds kicks for goal. Picture: Flash Gordon Photography

In an era where increasingly poor goalkicking is costing teams matches — Melbourne missed three regulation set shots in the final quarter of its two-point loss to Adelaide in Darwin on Saturday night — Reynolds is the money man.

“Kicking goals is your bread and butter as a forward, so I take great pride in being able to kick straight and not waste opportunities,’’ said Reynolds, who also plays SACA first-grade cricket for Port Adelaide.

“I’m happy that I have a pretty good record in front of the goals because that is the one stat, goalkicking accuracy, that really hasn’t improved in most competitions.

“I find that quite surprising and, in some ways, a little bit disappointing.’’

Set shot accuracy in the AFL has slumped from 61.1 per cent from 2011-18 to 59.6 per cent this season.

Reynolds, who spent a year on Carlton’s rookie list in 2014, has booted 54.15 from set shots in the past four seasons at 78.3 per cent accuracy.

He has a refined, smooth goalkicking technique, which he works hard on at training, and does not try to overcomplicate matters.

“I spend a lot of my time at training, when I’m not doing set drills, practising my goalkicking and making sure my technique is sound, just staying on top of that,’’ said Reynolds, who started kicking the ball with his dad, Lewis, in his backyard as a kid.
 

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Landgraft

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It is pointless having large numbers in the 22- 25 bracket if they are not currently playing or are on the fringe of playing.
This bracket is made up of potential List cloggers
I see we have moved beyond the imagined perils of list cloggers to now the far more pressing risk of potential list cloggers.

It's amazing that the club even bothers listing players when so few of them are going to justify any investment.
 

CatToTheFuture

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The issue would be a pressure mindset at afl level... no chf that for sure... it like the rcuk that just won the award on wa being 194cm...
if we had a spot..not the worst option I have seen....


The numbers that show Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds is the leading sharpshooter in the land
North’s Ben Brown is the AFL’s most accurate goalkicker. But an SANFL sharpshooter from the Bay holds the national title of most accurate in senior league football.

A South Australian left-footer can lay claim to being the best kick for goal in Australia.
Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds — who sits equal-second in the race for the Ken Farmer Medal as the top goalkicker in the SANFL — is statistically the most accurate shot in the land when it comes to major Australian Football competitions.

Exclusive Champion Data statistics show that no player who has been a regular goalkicker in the AFL or State Leagues in the past four seasons has been such a Deadeye Dick in front of the sticks as Reynolds.

The 24-year-old is, in fact, in a class of his own.

The former Port Adelaide Magpie and Carlton rookie boasts a stunning accuracy percentage of 77.1 from 118 scoring shots — nearly six per cent higher than the next-ranked player, veteran

Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds kicks for goal. Picture: Flash Gordon Photography


Glenelg’s Luke Reynolds kicks for goal. Picture: Flash Gordon Photography

In an era where increasingly poor goalkicking is costing teams matches — Melbourne missed three regulation set shots in the final quarter of its two-point loss to Adelaide in Darwin on Saturday night — Reynolds is the money man.

“Kicking goals is your bread and butter as a forward, so I take great pride in being able to kick straight and not waste opportunities,’’ said Reynolds, who also plays SACA first-grade cricket for Port Adelaide.

“I’m happy that I have a pretty good record in front of the goals because that is the one stat, goalkicking accuracy, that really hasn’t improved in most competitions.

“I find that quite surprising and, in some ways, a little bit disappointing.’’

Set shot accuracy in the AFL has slumped from 61.1 per cent from 2011-18 to 59.6 per cent this season.

Reynolds, who spent a year on Carlton’s rookie list in 2014, has booted 54.15 from set shots in the past four seasons at 78.3 per cent accuracy.

He has a refined, smooth goalkicking technique, which he works hard on at training, and does not try to overcomplicate matters.

“I spend a lot of my time at training, when I’m not doing set drills, practising my goalkicking and making sure my technique is sound, just staying on top of that,’’ said Reynolds, who started kicking the ball with his dad, Lewis, in his backyard as a kid.
Thanks!
 

Turbocat

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Hawthorn, and maybe the Swans, are the best comparisons to us beause they have had similar success era. And therefore the same problems at the draft table over that time. So, how do we compare?
catempire said Haw were in Barney Rubble ..not sure if he mentioned swans... I think swans have been a tad luck with their academy player ..being such a high quality . or they would be a lot heavier than they are atm.
 

catempire

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catempire said Haw were in Barney Rubble ..not sure if he mentioned swans... I think swans have been a tad luck with their academy player ..being such a high quality . or they would be a lot heavier than they are atm.
I’ve liked the Swans recruiting generally in the past few years. Obviously he academy has helped enormously with Heeney and Mills but guys like Florent, Hayward and McCartin will be very good players and then they’ve hit a few rookies too like Ronke and Papley. Blakey is going to be a beauty.
 

Turbocat

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I’ve liked the Swans recruiting generally in the past few years. Obviously he academy has helped enormously with Heeney and Mills but guys like Florent, Hayward and McCartin will be very good players and then they’ve hit a few rookies too like Ronke and Papley. Blakey is going to be a beauty.
Blakey is another gift from their academy ..really should be at North or Brisb. I hate to see SJ stay up there for years and his son then playing for the swans...

No doubt they can recruit.. Dawson was a R4 pick..
 

Down at K Park

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I’ve liked the Swans recruiting generally in the past few years. Obviously he academy has helped enormously with Heeney and Mills but guys like Florent, Hayward and McCartin will be very good players and then they’ve hit a few rookies too like Ronke and Papley. Blakey is going to be a beauty.
How is it the swans have an academy, but also get father/sons?

Isn’t that an unfair advantage? We aren’t getting any advantage from father/sons atm and have no academy.

Hawkins was a long time ago, and since then it’s been bews and brownless who give us no advantage.
 

cats_09

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How is it the swans have an academy, but also get father/sons?

Isn’t that an unfair advantage? We aren’t getting any advantage from father/sons atm and have no academy.

Hawkins was a long time ago, and since then it’s been bews and brownless who give us no advantage.
We do have an academy:

The Next Generation Academy has been developed in conjunction with AFL Barwon and AFLNT to offer skill and development opportunities for new and existing players from diverse and indigenous backgrounds...

...Further to this, under AFL Academy Guidelines, the club has been allocated regions of Barwon in Victoria (aligned with TAC cup region of the Geelong Falcons) and East Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory, from which Academy participants can be recruited from.

---
It's how we were able to do this last year:

GEELONG has finalised its list with Blake Schlensog from its Next Generation Academy joining as a Category B Rookie.

NGA info - https://m.geelongcats.com.au/football/next-gen
 

Down at K Park

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We do have an academy:

The Next Generation Academy has been developed in conjunction with AFL Barwon and AFLNT to offer skill and development opportunities for new and existing players from diverse and indigenous backgrounds...

...Further to this, under AFL Academy Guidelines, the club has been allocated regions of Barwon in Victoria (aligned with TAC cup region of the Geelong Falcons) and East Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory, from which Academy participants can be recruited from.

---
It's how we were able to do this last year:

GEELONG has finalised its list with Blake Schlensog from its Next Generation Academy joining as a Category B Rookie.

NGA info - https://m.geelongcats.com.au/football/next-gen
Is it only indiginous players?

How come other clubs get non-indiginous from their acadamies?
 

cats_09

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Is it only indiginous players?

How come other clubs get non-indiginous from their acadamies?
I think it's also to do with regional metrics and a few other things. If we look at things from a very basic level:

NSW & Qld - football code of choice tends to be rugby (union or league) and that is the more dominant code

Vic, Tas, SA, WA - football code of choice tends to be AFL

I think the academies that teams like GWS, Swans, GC & Lions have are to help establish the game and unearth younger talent in regions that aren't necessarily associated with AFL. I read the story earlier this year about Tom Trbojevic (now really good Manly player), he was a member of the Swans academy but turned his back on AFL with one reason being his ability to sign an NRL contract at a younger age without having to worry about the uncertainty of the AFL draft.

The AFL have a full page with more information about the NGA and it's purpose which can be found at - https://www.afl.com.au/news/game-development/nab-afl-rising-star-program/nga-clubacademies
 

Chinacats

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In part, that’s what is behind the philosophy of remaining a finals contender. It’s much harder to attract players if you can’t sell the message that they’ll be playing finals every year. This is the problem clubs like St Kilda and North have got into.
Seems they all want to go to st.kilda now. They’re coming!
 

DanA

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I'm late to the party but I don't agree with the OP.

It's not about broad demographics. It's about difference makers and with Kelly gone Stewart is the only difference-maker under the age of 29 at the start of next year. Who's going to step into Dangerfield and Selwood's shoes and be the players that carry this team forward? I just don't see anybody on this list. You can quote all the stats about age profile you like but once Danger, Hawkins & Selwood drop off we're not gonna be contenders until we find equivalent talents and they reach their football prime.
 

Vdubs

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Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.

It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.

But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.

Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn
10​
Collingwood
8​
Adelaide
7​
Sydney
7​
Carlton
5​
West Coast
5​
Western Bulldogs
5​
Brisbane
4​
Essendon
4​
Geelong
4
GWS Giants
4​
North Melbourne
4​
Port Adelaide
4​
Richmond
4​
St Kilda
4​
Fremantle
3​
Gold Coast
3​
Melbourne
3​
Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.


Geelong
15​
North Melbourne
15​
Richmond
14​
Collingwood
13​
West Coast
13​
Essendon
13​
Port Adelaide
13​
Fremantle
13​
Adelaide
12​
GWS Giants
12​
Hawthorn
10​
St Kilda
10​
Gold Coast
10​
Melbourne
10​
Sydney
9​
Brisbane
9​
Western Bulldogs
8​
Carlton
7​
So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.


Carlton
20​
Gold Coast
19​
Sydney
19​
Geelong
18​
Port Adelaide
18​
Fremantle
18​
Brisbane
18​
Hawthorn
17​
North Melbourne
16​
GWS Giants
16​
Richmond
15​
West Coast
15​
Collingwood
13​
Western Bulldogs
13​
Essendon
12​
Adelaide
12​
St Kilda
10​
Melbourne
10​
That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.


St Kilda
24​
Melbourne
24​
Western Bulldogs
19​
Essendon
18​
Gold Coast
16​
Carlton
15​
Brisbane
15​
Sydney
14​
GWS Giants
14​
Collingwood
13​
Adelaide
13​
Richmond
13​
West Coast
12​
Port Adelaide
12​
Fremantle
12​
North Melbourne
11​
Hawthorn
10​
Geelong
9​
What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.


What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
Brilliant, logical, informative post. Must have taken some preparation.
I think you should seek a pay rise.
 

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