List Mgmt. Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

Dec 10, 2003
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Thought some of you might be interested to see a comparison between the composition of the past few flag sides and Geelong’s best 22 now.
View attachment 980432
Note: I’ve counted Hawkins as a top 10 pick given he was taken under the previous F/S system.

It’s clear there’s a class gap at the top end, with Geelong having about two fewer first round picks and slightly fewer second rounders. That’s about three players difference at the top end in total. Arguably, we have managed to bridge a fair bit of that gap in acquiring Dangerfield through trade.

But it does tend to indicate to me that there’s not a world of difference between us and the composition of successful recent teams. It’s a matter of 2-3 players at the top end. Note that this doesn’t include Clark, Stephens or Cockatoo, all of whom, if they made Geelong’s best 22, would immediately bridge the gap in quality that is observed. Geelong also has another three first round picks to come shortly. So again, the scope to bridge the gap is within reach.

At the risk of banging on about it, it again shows to me that the first round failures in Smedts, Thurlow and Lang, added to by the injury failures in Menzel and Cockatoo, are what have hurt us most. It is not any decision to favour an approach to bring in ready-made over drafting. If anything, the above shows that we haven’t utilised that approach significantly more than recent successful clubs.

As usual you make a good case ... id say the devil is in the detail ..if our T10 picks are Hawkins and JS ... we are probably only able to say one is playing at that level now ... and adding a couple of players like SDek or Stephens would not make us that much better now.. so there is probably an age range/ games played to symbolise players close to their best. How many R1 picks under 70 games and over 280 games for example in those flags side?

For example the has been commentary on Riewoldt at Richmond..280 games , Cotchen 248 , Martin 241 , Lynch 172 .....

I agree failure of draft picks has played a significant role in current situation , and one might have expected Smedts to succeed or Lang .... I think there is ample evidence that we just have not had enough access to prime end of the draft... and even this year we will not be able to add a single figure pick without significant painful trading. If we count up the first 3 columns we are 3 players down in that high end talent zone ..and we have tried redress that with clever drafting at the tail end and trades.. but its getting hard to do

And ..there is something different about drafting a player than bringing him in. The Danger ..and this year Crouch and Cameron ... .. not sure its quite the same. Not many work like Danger and Neale. Id say there would be very few if any flag side that have not drafted single figure picks... and all 6 left this year have players like that again.. although our time within that stat is running out
 
As usual you make a good case ... id say the devil is in the detail ..if our T10 picks are Hawkins and JS ... we are probably only able to say one is playing at that level now ... and adding a couple of players like SDek or Stephens would not make us that much better now.. so there is probably an age range/ games played to symbolise players close to their best. How many R1 picks under 70 games and over 280 games for example in those flags side?

For example the has been commentary on Riewoldt at Richmond..280 games , Cotchen 248 , Martin 241 , Lynch 172 .....

I agree failure of draft picks has played a significant role in current situation , and one might have expected Smedts to succeed or Lang .... I think there is ample evidence that we just have not had enough access to prime end of the draft... and even this year we will not be able to add a single figure pick without significant painful trading. If we count up the first 3 columns we are 3 players down in that high end talent zone ..and we have tried redress that with clever drafting at the tail end and trades.. but its getting hard to do

And ..there is something different about drafting a player than bringing him in. The Danger ..and this year Crouch and Cameron ... .. not sure its quite the same. Not many work like Danger and Neale. Id say there would be very few if any flag side that have not drafted single figure picks... and all 6 left this year have players like that again.. although our time within that stat is running out
As you know I prefer to explore objective analysis like this as it takes the emotion out of it. A few points in response if I may...

Rarely can any type of analysis answer all questions and this is no different. The question I sought to answer here was “has Geelong’s approach to building a team been substantially different to recent success stories?” I think it has elucidated that the approach hasn’t been altogether different but for a slight difference in access to top end talent (as you point out) and an ability to convert access to top end talent into successes.

In terms of mentioning Stephens and Clark, I did so in terms of what they could offer in future, not now. It’s unknown but they are here and they evidence, in part, an approach that includes making first round selections.

I have some other thoughts on what this means for the future which I’ll add later.
 
Dec 10, 2003
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As you know I prefer to explore objective analysis like this as it takes the emotion out of it. A few points in response if I may...

Rarely can any type of analysis answer all questions and this is no different. The question I sought to answer here was “has Geelong’s approach to building a team been substantially different to recent success stories?” I think it has elucidated that the approach hasn’t been altogether different but for a slight difference in access to top end talent (as you point out) and an ability to convert access to top end talent into successes.

In terms of mentioning Stephens and Clark, I did so in terms of what they could offer in future, not now. It’s unknown but they are here and they evidence, in part, an approach that includes making first round selections.

I have some other thoughts on what this means for the future which I’ll add later.

fair enough ... I don't mind taking the energy out of the stats and looking at the in cool way. I have the opinion that within the stats there sub groups .. the more one breaks it down the simplicity tends to go to as one tries tighten the focus. I look forward to stage 2
 
Mar 27, 2006
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That’s where the biggest gap is though - non top 10 first round picks. Had just 2 of those come off we would have been essentially identical to those successful teams (in profile).

So you are effectively surmising, injuries aside with Menzel, that our talent idenfication has deteriorated?
 
So you are effectively surmising, injuries aside with Menzel, that our talent idenfication has deteriorated?
Not as such, because it was a dark period from 2010-2015 and then it seems to have come good again. Those dark years are about the only blot on Wells otherwise immaculate copybook.
 
Thought some of you might be interested to see a comparison between the composition of the past few flag sides and Geelong’s best 22 now.
View attachment 980432
Note: I’ve counted Hawkins as a top 10 pick given he was taken under the previous F/S system.

It’s clear there’s a class gap at the top end, with Geelong having about two fewer first round picks and slightly fewer second rounders. That’s about three players difference at the top end in total. Arguably, we have managed to bridge a fair bit of that gap in acquiring Dangerfield through trade.

But it does tend to indicate to me that there’s not a world of difference between us and the composition of successful recent teams. It’s a matter of 2-3 players at the top end. Note that this doesn’t include Clark, Stephens or Cockatoo, all of whom, if they made Geelong’s best 22, would immediately bridge the gap in quality that is observed. Geelong also has another three first round picks to come shortly. So again, the scope to bridge the gap is within reach.

At the risk of banging on about it, it again shows to me that the first round failures in Smedts, Thurlow and Lang, added to by the injury failures in Menzel and Cockatoo, are what have hurt us most. It is not any decision to favour an approach to bring in ready-made over drafting. If anything, the above shows that we haven’t utilised that approach significantly more than recent successful clubs.
CE is back MOFOS...

Look out... Graph porn in the hizzie!

And highly informative too.

GO Catters
 
5 players out of 6 drafts seems very very average. No wonder he had to trade in mature players to fill in age gaps.
Well worse than average, I’d guess.
 

patmatcat

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Interesting analysis and certainly true about our poor recruiting from 2011-2014.

Still, it is also worth noting that by early in the the 2020 season, Parfitt and Narkle will both enter this age bracket and within 12 months Ratugolea and Henry will be there too. These four players are now entrenched in our best 22 and seem likely to play crucial roles for us over the next 5-10 years.

It would be nice to see us target some players in this age range during trade period. For example, Sam Powell-Pepper (22 in January) has stagnated at Port but clearly has plenty of ability.


Recruiting is a fine line, we get Grundy over Thurlow, possibly win another GF... inspired choice. bla... bla... bla.. instead we got another 'versatile defender'
 
Mar 27, 2006
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Not as such, because it was a dark period from 2010-2015 and then it seems to have come good again. Those dark years are about the only blot on Wells otherwise immaculate copybook.

That’s 6 long dark years. It exceeds the period that Carl had draft penalties. Essendon too. It’s hardly surprising we are scratching and clawing to remain in the finals. And that we can’t quite get to a GF.
 

Footy Smarts

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Jun 19, 2006
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My point is that we have a dearth of quality kids, no doubt due to our ladder position each year precluding us from the top end of the draft. But sooner or later it will bite.

The 4 that you’ve named are what I’d call solid players. All have deficiencies and aren’t young stars. We could get lucky and someone like Stephens may end up better than his draft position would indicate - but its a gamble.

We may need to swallow a bit of medicine as Sydney and the Hawks are currently doing in order to develop a list with some genuine quality through the 22.

I completely agree that we are likely to have to take some medicine in the not too distant future. But if Cockatoo, Narkle and Constable leave nothing really changes. As you say all our young players have some talent but also deficiencies. So do those 3 and they're about in the middle in terms of talent they've shown (Cockatoo a bit different but obviously the injuries are a big factor). If they leave chances are we'll just replace them with other young talented players with deficiencies.
 

Lana

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Jul 23, 2010
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5 players out of 6 drafts seems very very average. No wonder he had to trade in mature players to fill in age gaps.

Just for comparison with the other teams in the top 4, Port have 7, Brisbane 8(a couple of which are de-list bait this year), Richmond 11 (did well with late picks in 2014 and 2015), pretty sure we used a lot less picks in that time.
 
That’s 6 long dark years. It exceeds the period that Carl had draft penalties. Essendon too. It’s hardly surprising we are scratching and clawing to remain in the finals. And that we can’t quite get to a GF.
Well, let’s see what happens in the next 10 days. But generally I think the unconventional recruitment - principally mature agers and Cat Bs - has saved us from a world of pain.

I think we have weathered the storm in a way.
 
No A-graders there mate. Which is why the top 6-7 picks in the draft are critical. Reckon I'd look to trade up now this year.

Clark Will be an A grade. but broadly you have a point.
 
Mar 27, 2006
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Well, let’s see what happens in the next 10 days. But generally I think the unconventional recruitment - principally mature agers and Cat Bs - has saved us from a world of pain.

I think we have weathered the storm in a way.

More than happy to eat humble pie if we jag the flag (I know you’ll remind me too 😉) but I think we go back to what worked to get us 3 flags. More FS’s!
 

BORIS332

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Dec 22, 2016
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We scored 42. Who gives a fug how many scoring shots we had. Last time i checked, the points on the scoreboard show who won the game. The one with the highest number wins. Unless i’m mistaken and it’s changed recently?

Thought you said we can’t score in finals. We scored more times than Port did. Tom Hawkins not kicking straight isn’t a systematic fault in our game plan.
 

goyoucatters

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Thought you said we can’t score in finals. We scored more times than Port did. Tom Hawkins not kicking straight isn’t a systematic fault in our game plan.

Add to that the two scoring shots we left out there at the end of the first and third quarters. It really wasn't a matter of not having enough chances, or of having a game plan that couldn't possibly succeed.

I generally like Stoker's contributions on the club podcast. But at one point this week he said we were 'horrible' for 90% of Thursday's night's game. Given we should have been three goals up going into half-time, it's hard to imagine what that supposedly makes Port's effort for most of the first half.

We're all emotional about another finals series potentially slipping from our grasp. I do understand that. But it's simply an exercise in being overly emotive to say we never had a chance or that we were lucky to get that close on Thursday night.

Kick straight at goal (which is actually a given for success in any game plan you go with), and we win that match.
 
May 18, 2016
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Thought you said we can’t score in finals. We scored more times than Port did. Tom Hawkins not kicking straight isn’t a systematic fault in our game plan.
Wtf. We scored 42 points. 42.

That is f all.

But keep living in your little fairy land where points are worth as much as goals:drunk:

These scott apologists just keep getting more deluded with every mounting finals loss.
 
More than happy to eat humble pie if we jag the flag (I know you’ll remind me too 😉) but I think we go back to what worked to get us 3 flags. More FS’s!
What worked previously is an outdated model. Doubt it would work anymore.
 
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