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Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list.
It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.
But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.
Number of 30+ players on list:
Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.
So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.
That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.
What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.
What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.
It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old list – the 5th oldest behind Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast.
But dig a bit deeper and you see that, much like the list of 4-5 years ago, there’s age-profile skew on Geelong’s list but not in the way you might think. Geelong has only four players aged 30+ on its list which is as per the league median and average. When you look at Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney they have far bigger problems than Geelong on this front.
Number of 30+ players on list:
Hawthorn | 10 |
Collingwood | 8 |
Adelaide | 7 |
Sydney | 7 |
Carlton | 5 |
West Coast | 5 |
Western Bulldogs | 5 |
Brisbane | 4 |
Essendon | 4 |
Geelong | 4 |
GWS Giants | 4 |
North Melbourne | 4 |
Port Adelaide | 4 |
Richmond | 4 |
St Kilda | 4 |
Fremantle | 3 |
Gold Coast | 3 |
Melbourne | 3 |
|
Dig a little further and you see that Geelong’s high average age is driven by its large number of 26-29 year olds – here we rank equal first. We know from history that having a large number of players in this bracket is positively correlated with winning the flag. It is unambiguously a good thing in terms of the near future.
Geelong | 15 |
North Melbourne | 15 |
Richmond | 14 |
Collingwood | 13 |
West Coast | 13 |
Essendon | 13 |
Port Adelaide | 13 |
Fremantle | 13 |
Adelaide | 12 |
GWS Giants | 12 |
Hawthorn | 10 |
St Kilda | 10 |
Gold Coast | 10 |
Melbourne | 10 |
Sydney | 9 |
Brisbane | 9 |
Western Bulldogs | 8 |
Carlton | 7 |
So this might lead one to conclude that Geelong has been sacrificing youth in order to develop that 26-29 year old bracket. First, let’s look at the 18-21 year old bracket. Geelong actually ranks equal 4th having well above the league average and median number of players in this age bracket. There is absolutely no shortage of players in this category for Geelong.
Carlton | 20 |
Gold Coast | 19 |
Sydney | 19 |
Geelong | 18 |
Port Adelaide | 18 |
Fremantle | 18 |
Brisbane | 18 |
Hawthorn | 17 |
North Melbourne | 16 |
GWS Giants | 16 |
Richmond | 15 |
West Coast | 15 |
Collingwood | 13 |
Western Bulldogs | 13 |
Essendon | 12 |
Adelaide | 12 |
St Kilda | 10 |
Melbourne | 10 |
That leaves the final cohort and this is where things look worrying for Geelong. This group – 22 to 25 year olds – are the players on your list that are starting to come into their own and, if things work out, will become the players that form the core of your next premiership when they move into the 26-29 year bracket. Geelong ranks dead last.
St Kilda | 24 |
Melbourne | 24 |
Western Bulldogs | 19 |
Essendon | 18 |
Gold Coast | 16 |
Carlton | 15 |
Brisbane | 15 |
Sydney | 14 |
GWS Giants | 14 |
Collingwood | 13 |
Adelaide | 13 |
Richmond | 13 |
West Coast | 12 |
Port Adelaide | 12 |
Fremantle | 12 |
North Melbourne | 11 |
Hawthorn | 10 |
Geelong | 9 |
What has happened to put Geelong in this position? The players in this cohort are from the drafts of 2011-2014. Geelong has lost from that era: Hamling, Kersten, Murdoch, McCarthy, Thurlow, Hartman, Lang, Jansen and Gregson. You quickly see that the failure to develop/hang on to these players has led to a huge gap in Geelong’s list. It was a dire era of recruitment for Geelong that will leave a mark for some time yet. There was also a failure with mature players during this era, but not to the extent you might think: McIntosh (pick 38, 2012), Clark (for Varcoe) and Stanley (for pick 18, 2014) were at least arguably at the cost of a player who might now be a 22-25 year old on our list had we gone in a different direction.
What is the upshot of all of this? Well, for all the calls to ‘hit the draft’ and focus on youth I think there’s a strong chance you will see Geelong target players with some experience both through the draft (in continuing a pattern of recruiting mature agers) and through trades focusing on players with AFL experience aged 22-25.