Analysis Geelong 2017 Defence

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They won't make the same mistakes again this year.. I hope
I'd love to share the same confidence.

If they didn't drop Bartel and Blicavs last year I can't see Mackie or Taylor playing VFL.
 
Neither can I. In particular I can't imagine any veteran being dropped, especially those from the premiership years (as distant as they are becoming).
It's a matter of finding a role for them and hoping they perform it. I'd still like to know what Bartel's role was last year other than being a witches hat.
 

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We will. I expect all of Stanley, Blitz and Smith to play as well.
I have no doubt all 3 will play and continue to make us too top heavy. We have enough run on our list now to utilise to good effect, particularly in defence, the area we were deficient in last year.
 
I'd love to share the same confidence.

If they didn't drop Bartel and Blicavs last year I can't see Mackie or Taylor playing VFL.
Realistically, when you have a crack at the flag, you expect your players to force their way in, you don't gift players games to develop them for a future flag. Whether you agree with the sentiment or not, there simply were no players good enough to fill the roles that Bartel and Blicavs played this year. They weren't dropped because they shouldn't have been dropped.

We have the depth and experience to drop Lonners and Mackie if form warrants. I would be surprised if both aren't rested regularly this year, given their age and our stocks.

Not sure why you would even dream of dropping Taylor, he shouldered a pretty big burden in bringing a very new backline together successfully, last year. Our points against was second best in the league, working with two sub fifty gamers, an elevated vfl rookie, a first year cat traded from a basket case club, and the others well over their 30's. In such an even competition last year, that is a special achievement.

Meta stats as proof of an individual player's worth being irrelevant, he is clearly our best replacement for Lonners. Regardless of how he played last year, I would drop a player on the cusp of retirement, before I dropped his more mobile, better aerial, better kick replacement of the next two years.
 
Realistically, when you have a crack at the flag, you expect your players to force their way in, you don't gift players games to develop them for a future flag. Whether you agree with the sentiment or not, there simply were no players good enough to fill the roles that Bartel and Blicavs played this year. They weren't dropped because they shouldn't have been dropped.

That's a fair point but most pundits didn't expect Geelong to seriously challenge for last years premiership given the nature of our abysmal 2015 season. Even the most ardent optimist would have been second guessing themselves even after the recruiting spree that netted Dangerfield. In fact a lot on this board were calling for youngsters to be blooded. We had too many deficiencies to win last years flag.

When Scott Selwood came into the side, and a lesser extent Menegola, Blivacs should have been the one to make way given his form and the fact that Selwood was to be the defensive mid. Blicavs doesn't have enough tricks to play as a pure mid and he wasn't displacing Stanley or Smith form the side to play as a ruck.

As for Bartel, the fact that the Wolves were circling in the media about possibly being dropped is proof enough that his form wasn't the best. Horlin-Smith was beating down the door all year in the VFL for no reward. If they weren't prepared to play Horlin-Smith then what's he still doing on the list?

We have the depth and experience to drop Lonners and Mackie if form warrants. I would be surprised if both aren't rested regularly this year, given their age and our stocks.
I'm not sure we have the depth at full back but we certainly do in Mackie's case. I still can't see the latter being dropped though despite his apparent troubles under extreme pressure such as finals.
Not sure why you would even dream of dropping Taylor, he shouldered a pretty big burden in bringing a very new backline together successfully, last year. Our points against was second best in the league, working with two sub fifty gamers, an elevated vfl rookie, a first year cat traded from a basket case club, and the others well over their 30's. In such an even competition last year, that is a special achievement.Meta stats as proof of an individual player's worth being irrelevant, he is clearly our best replacement for Lonners. Regardless of how he played last year, I would drop a player on the cusp of retirement, before I dropped his more mobile, better aerial, better kick replacement of the next two years.

Taylor is in decline and structurally can afford to be dropped as we have the depth to cover. At the moment we're too tall down back and something needs to give. Hendo was our best tall last year and Domsy picks himself at full back. I see no room for Harry as good as he's been in the past unless it's forward... I'm not confident he he'd be a consistent performer there either at his age but that's my opinion.
 
Neither Kolodjashnij or Lonergan are 'sub average' field kicks. Also, I think Lonergan is competing with Taylor for the full back position since they're the only two really suited to that role and Domsy has the runs on the board and did pretty well in the spot last year. Taylor plays forward or in the VFL imo If we're talking structure.

As for Thurlow, I think he needs to earn his spot back as his previous performances weren't good enough for him to be an automatic inclusion in the side... and taking into account him coming back from a knee reco which can take up to a year before you're anywhere near what you were before the injury happened. People expecting the world from Thurlow next year could be left a little disappointed.
Doms is a real 'heart in your mouth' kick for me
Kolo isn't, he is fine.

Agree on Thurlow, he was just in the best 22 this time last year (but we were expecting a breakout year as well)
He may be 12 months away from being back in that position
 
Apologies for the lengthy reply, good points deserve a proper response
That's a fair point but most pundits didn't expect Geelong to seriously challenge for last years premiership given the nature of our abysmal 2015 season. Even the most ardent optimist would have been second guessing themselves even after the recruiting spree that netted Dangerfield. In fact a lot on this board were calling for youngsters to be blooded. We had too many deficiencies to win last years flag.
I agree, but I think it quickly became apparent after the close loss to GWS that we had to re-assess our chances. As you say, Blicavs and Bartels positions in the side were under the pump in the latter third of the season, by which time we were running firmly in the top four. But, with only a few games separating 1st from 5th, I just feel it would have been difficult for the MC to have subbed greener players in for either Bartel or Blicavs.

When Scott Selwood came into the side, and a lesser extent Menegola, Blivacs should have been the one to make way given his form and the fact that Selwood was to be the defensive mid. Blicavs doesn't have enough tricks to play as a pure mid and he wasn't displacing Stanley or Smith form the side to play as a ruck.
I agree with you regarding scooter, they both play defensive mid roles. But they are not like for like. I think Scooter is a tagger, where Blicavs impedes the opposition running lines and generally tackles anyone he can reach with his flappers. Blicavs allows Joel or Paddy a clear run at the tap, while Scooter stops a dangerous opponent from attacking. Otherwise scooter was a half back flank or sitting on the bench resting, and Blicavs was a third man up rucking wingman. I'm not confident that dropping him for any of our available pure mids would have produced a net benefit to the team. I think we might find out the answer this year, with the third man rule change negating about 20% of Blicavs proven utility.

I don't think Menegola is a replacement for Blicavs though, he is a rotation option for either Joel or Paddy, or support as an inside extractor. He put more pressure on Bartel, Caddy and Guthries position, IMO, and was probably the main reason those guys spent so much time on flanks after he came back from injury.

As for Bartel, the fact that the Wolves were circling in the media about possibly being dropped is proof enough that his form wasn't the best. Horlin-Smith was beating down the door all year in the VFL for no reward. If they weren't prepared to play Horlin-Smith then what's he still doing on the list?
I really can't disagree with you here. Again, I think it probably had a bit to do with Bartels utility as a mid/wing/flanker, where we were a bit on the inexperienced side at times last year. GHS just doesn't seem to have the currency to buy a spot. I honestly don't know though, I would love to know what the story with GHS is.

Tbh, he is not alone - Murdoch and Lang should have been banging down the door for Jimmys spot too, were given every opportunity during the season to prove it and both wasted their opportunities.

I'm not sure we have the depth at full back but we certainly do in Mackie's case. I still can't see the latter being dropped though despite his apparent troubles under extreme pressure such as finals.

Taylor is in decline and structurally can afford to be dropped as we have the depth to cover. At the moment we're too tall down back and something needs to give. Hendo was our best tall last year and Domsy picks himself at full back. I see no room for Harry as good as he's been in the past unless it's forward... I'm not confident he he'd be a consistent performer there either at his age but that's my opinion.

Happy to see Mackie play if his form warrants it, but he should be a straight swap for Kolo only. Kolo has to lift his stats considerably to catch up to Mackie's 2016 benchmark, so I won't be surprised if he is groomed to taper at the end of the season when Mackie's spaghetti legs blow up.

I think we are roughly on the same page here, just split between which of our declining KP backmen plays fullback moving forward, and whether the other plays at all. Both of us agree that we can't preferably carry Taylor, Henderson, Kolo/Mackie and Lonergan in our back six at the same time.

I hope they don't try to squeeze in Taylor as CHF, or at the expense of Black as third tall. Taylor is not a forward, if he can't displace Lonners, then we shouldn't be trying to change his role from back to forward.

Given that I think our midfield delivery to our forwards was more the cause of the forward line dysfunction last year than lack of quality forwards, I hope they fix root cause rather than put a crafty backman in there to pinch marks from the type of wayward loopers we banged down there in 2016. That will probably improve as they gel as a group and buy each other more time to settle and kick, hopefully.

And happy new year to you!
 
Could Mackie and Taylor work up forward
Would a forward line of

HF: Cockatoo Taylor Motlop
F: Menzel Hawkins Mackie
 

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Why put needless pressure on him to perform, weakening our backline and forward line as a result? We are having a crack at the flag this year, and won't speculate on 2nd kpf and kpd unless the kitty litter has hit the fan, imo.

I agree with you in principle, though, and don't think it will be an either or proposition to play Kolo or Thurlow. E.g a Ruggles or Bews makes way for Thurlow, rather than Kolo, or Thurlow takes a wing, or Taylor/Hendo go forward, or neither Thurlow or Kolo play. Cattle available and cattle opposed will play a big part in who plays where and when.

Whatever the combination, I hope the mc choose with a view to maximise the best matchups to our advantage each week, which means all the boys will need to be flexible in their roles back there, imo.

We aren't close to a flag but playing smaller in defense can only be a positive. I just dont rate kolo that highly, he has had a dream apprenticeship already, doesn't need to be protected anymore.
 
We aren't close to a flag but playing smaller in defense can only be a positive. I just dont rate kolo that highly, he has had a dream apprenticeship already, doesn't need to be protected anymore.
He's been solid enough and he's got all the right attributes, but yeah he's been given enough games now. Doesn't have to be a lock for best 22 if there's someone better.
 
Last year I remember posters (inc myself) bemoaning the fact that we had no run and carry in defence and we were a little too top heavy and predictable.

We've managed to make this area a perceived strength in the off-season and now have an abundance of options. Players like Tuohy, Thurlow, Stewart, Bews, Ruggles, and maybe Cunico are now all fighting for 2 or 3 spots in the backline so it'll keep them all on their toes and give us much needed depth in a area we were lacking in 2016.

It's amazing that even after the loss of arguably the greatest medium/small defender in the clubs history that the defence will still remain a strength.

There will still be healthy debate on how we fit them all in.
 
We aren't close to a flag but playing smaller in defense can only be a positive. I just dont rate kolo that highly, he has had a dream apprenticeship already, doesn't need to be protected anymore.
Fair enough, writing us off seems pretty silly right now, but that is your prerogative.
 
Apologies for the lengthy reply, good points deserve a proper response
I agree, but I think it quickly became apparent after the close loss to GWS that we had to re-assess our chances. As you say, Blicavs and Bartels positions in the side were under the pump in the latter third of the season, by which time we were running firmly in the top four. But, with only a few games separating 1st from 5th, I just feel it would have been difficult for the MC to have subbed greener players in for either Bartel or Blicavs.


I agree with you regarding scooter, they both play defensive mid roles. But they are not like for like. I think Scooter is a tagger, where Blicavs impedes the opposition running lines and generally tackles anyone he can reach with his flappers. Blicavs allows Joel or Paddy a clear run at the tap, while Scooter stops a dangerous opponent from attacking. Otherwise scooter was a half back flank or sitting on the bench resting, and Blicavs was a third man up rucking wingman. I'm not confident that dropping him for any of our available pure mids would have produced a net benefit to the team. I think we might find out the answer this year, with the third man rule change negating about 20% of Blicavs proven utility.

I don't think Menegola is a replacement for Blicavs though, he is a rotation option for either Joel or Paddy, or support as an inside extractor. He put more pressure on Bartel, Caddy and Guthries position, IMO, and was probably the main reason those guys spent so much time on flanks after he came back from injury.


I really can't disagree with you here. Again, I think it probably had a bit to do with Bartels utility as a mid/wing/flanker, where we were a bit on the inexperienced side at times last year. GHS just doesn't seem to have the currency to buy a spot. I honestly don't know though, I would love to know what the story with GHS is.

Tbh, he is not alone - Murdoch and Lang should have been banging down the door for Jimmys spot too, were given every opportunity during the season to prove it and both wasted their opportunities.



Happy to see Mackie play if his form warrants it, but he should be a straight swap for Kolo only. Kolo has to lift his stats considerably to catch up to Mackie's 2016 benchmark, so I won't be surprised if he is groomed to taper at the end of the season when Mackie's spaghetti legs blow up.

I think we are roughly on the same page here, just split between which of our declining KP backmen plays fullback moving forward, and whether the other plays at all. Both of us agree that we can't preferably carry Taylor, Henderson, Kolo/Mackie and Lonergan in our back six at the same time.

I hope they don't try to squeeze in Taylor as CHF, or at the expense of Black as third tall. Taylor is not a forward, if he can't displace Lonners, then we shouldn't be trying to change his role from back to forward.

Given that I think our midfield delivery to our forwards was more the cause of the forward line dysfunction last year than lack of quality forwards, I hope they fix root cause rather than put a crafty backman in there to pinch marks from the type of wayward loopers we banged down there in 2016. That will probably improve as they gel as a group and buy each other more time to settle and kick, hopefully.

And happy new year to you!

Great post... super analysis too...

Well played.

Feel free to add more anytime :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:

GO Catters
 
Unless stanley finds the consistency that has eluded him so far or 2017 black becomes 2013 black i think its pretty likely taylor or henderson is going to CHF.

Obviously there was one report that Taylor trained with the forwards but I haven't heard anything since and have heard diddly-squat on Henderson.
With Lonergan most likely hanging up the boots at the end of the season it seems more a stop gap measure if either of these two are sent forward in 2017. With the addition of new defensive recruits Tuohy and Stewart and the return of Thurlow, the on field experience/guidance of both Taylor and Henderson would be invaluable in developing that important defensive synergy quickly over the offseason.

I spoke to a footballing person only yesterday who knows Black well and he felt he was unlucky at North with injury and if not for Waite's consistently strong form would have seen more regular games in the 1s. He rates him and believes he is a good get for us and is a much better prospect than Kersten ... time will tell of course.

We all know Stanley has amazing physical attributes for someone over 200cm but the foot fracture in 2015 was a significant setback. Apparently he had discomfort for much of 2016 and this possibly may have affected his consistency and/or perceived form lapses. When fit and firing his acceleration, high leaping and long kicking would test the best defenders. For mine, he should be our first option to take the CHF role.
 
Both of them have honed their defensive skills over many seasons and are natural defenders. The half-arsed experiment of sending Henderson forward late in season 2016 was ill-conceived at best.

Both HarryT and Henderson are too slow up there and struggle to apply the requisite defensive pressure when the opposition defence runs the ball out.

Sure both of them have the ability to pinch hit the odd goal but they are the first two players I would select down back as that is where they are clearly most effective.

I'd be looking at the mobile talls in Stanley and Black to support Hawkins with Motlop, Menzel, McCarthy and possibly Lang the support cast. Perhaps Dangerfield should be rested up there more often to add even more fire power with his ability to win the contested ball and take pack marks.

We don't need a massively tall forward line to make things gel up there. Gunston (193cm) and Breust (184cm) have been excellent for the Hawks in terms of goal scoring with an ability to regularly snag opportunistic goals via deft knock-ons and reading the ball off packs.

Hopefully Brad Johnson, also an opportunistic goal scorer has/will impart a bit of that knowledge during his coaching stint at the Cattery.
Look, these are all fair points but for me it comes back to Hawkins needing another tall to support him. So putting our smalls and mediums to one side who is going to be that other tall to support Hawkins?

To me it seems pretty clear that Stanley isn't up to it on a permanent basis so that only really leaves Black or House that might be capable of filling that role. There is definite doubt as to whether either of these two guys will be able to provide enough support to Hawkins on a regular basis aswell. If one of these two guys can fill that role then great. That changes things. But if not we're going to see more of the same that happened in 2016 unless we move one of Taylor or Henderson forward and I don't want to see the same things happening again in 2017 cos it will drive me crazy.

We don't have the talent in smalls and mediums that Hawthorn do and we need to accept that rather than relying on inferior players to get the job done on a regular basis.

It will also help to provide better balance to our backline which needs addressing aswell so to me it just makes sense to flip one of those two defenders forward.
 
Doms is a real 'heart in your mouth' kick for me
Kolo isn't, he is fine.

Agree on Thurlow, he was just in the best 22 this time last year (but we were expecting a breakout year as well)
He may be 12 months away from being back in that position
It's a myth Willo carried over from his early years.
Some 2016 figures I found.The best of the best.At the half way mark 2016
  1. Tom Lonergan (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 92.5% – Games: 7
  2. Scott Thompson (NM) – Disposal efficiency: 89.3% – Games: 8
  3. Eric Mackenzie (WCE) – Disposal efficiency: 88.7% – Games: 9
  4. Dale Morris (WB) – Disposal efficiency: 88.4% – Games: 9
  5. Tim O’Brien (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 87.9% – Games: 6
  6. Harry Taylor (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 87.9% – Games: 9
  7. Kyle Cheney (Adel) – Disposal efficiency: 87.7% – Games: 9
  8. Lynden Dunn (Melb) – Disposal efficiency: 87.3% – Games: 4
  9. Alex Rance (Rich) – Disposal efficiency: 86.8% – Games: 7
  10. Michael Johnson (Fre) – Disposal efficiency: 86.5% – Games: 5
  11. Neville Jetta (Melb) – Disposal efficiency: 86.2% – Games: 8
  12. Kade Simpson (Carl) – Disposal efficiency: 85.8% – Games: 9
  13. Jason Johannisen (WB) – Disposal efficiency: 85.7% – Games: 4
  14. Jake Kolodjashnij (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 85.7% – Games: 6
  15. Shane Mumford (GWS) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 9
  16. James Frawley (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 8
  17. Lachie Henderson (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 8
  18. Michael Johnson (Fre) – Disposal efficiency: 85.5% – Games: 4
  19. Grant Birchall (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 85.4% – Games: 9
  20. Michael Hartley (Ess) – Disposal efficiency: 85.4 – Games: 8
 
Last edited:
Apologies for the lengthy reply, good points deserve a proper response
I agree, but I think it quickly became apparent after the close loss to GWS that we had to re-assess our chances. As you say, Blicavs and Bartels positions in the side were under the pump in the latter third of the season, by which time we were running firmly in the top four. But, with only a few games separating 1st from 5th, I just feel it would have been difficult for the MC to have subbed greener players in for either Bartel or Blicavs.


I agree with you regarding scooter, they both play defensive mid roles. But they are not like for like. I think Scooter is a tagger, where Blicavs impedes the opposition running lines and generally tackles anyone he can reach with his flappers. Blicavs allows Joel or Paddy a clear run at the tap, while Scooter stops a dangerous opponent from attacking. Otherwise scooter was a half back flank or sitting on the bench resting, and Blicavs was a third man up rucking wingman. I'm not confident that dropping him for any of our available pure mids would have produced a net benefit to the team. I think we might find out the answer this year, with the third man rule change negating about 20% of Blicavs proven utility.

I don't think Menegola is a replacement for Blicavs though, he is a rotation option for either Joel or Paddy, or support as an inside extractor. He put more pressure on Bartel, Caddy and Guthries position, IMO, and was probably the main reason those guys spent so much time on flanks after he came back from injury.


I really can't disagree with you here. Again, I think it probably had a bit to do with Bartels utility as a mid/wing/flanker, where we were a bit on the inexperienced side at times last year. GHS just doesn't seem to have the currency to buy a spot. I honestly don't know though, I would love to know what the story with GHS is.

Tbh, he is not alone - Murdoch and Lang should have been banging down the door for Jimmys spot too, were given every opportunity during the season to prove it and both wasted their opportunities.



Happy to see Mackie play if his form warrants it, but he should be a straight swap for Kolo only. Kolo has to lift his stats considerably to catch up to Mackie's 2016 benchmark, so I won't be surprised if he is groomed to taper at the end of the season when Mackie's spaghetti legs blow up.

I think we are roughly on the same page here, just split between which of our declining KP backmen plays fullback moving forward, and whether the other plays at all. Both of us agree that we can't preferably carry Taylor, Henderson, Kolo/Mackie and Lonergan in our back six at the same time.

I hope they don't try to squeeze in Taylor as CHF, or at the expense of Black as third tall. Taylor is not a forward, if he can't displace Lonners, then we shouldn't be trying to change his role from back to forward.

Given that I think our midfield delivery to our forwards was more the cause of the forward line dysfunction last year than lack of quality forwards, I hope they fix root cause rather than put a crafty backman in there to pinch marks from the type of wayward loopers we banged down there in 2016. That will probably improve as they gel as a group and buy each other more time to settle and kick, hopefully.

And happy new year to you!
Agree with Daz nice work,two points, Bartel they were always going to get him to 300 games and from then on it was to late to change things up.

"Given that I think our midfield delivery to our forwards was more the cause of the forward line dysfunction last year than lack of quality forwards,"

Far to simplistic in my opinion,potential A graders Hawkins and Menzel operating at B+ and no one else, and very difficult for midfielder to hit forwards on the chest with bullet like passes if they are not there to lead because they have pushed to far up the ground.
The forward line needs a complete over haul including game plan.
 
It's a myth Willo carried over from his early years.
Some 2016 figures I found.The best of the best.At the half way mark 2016
  1. Tom Lonergan (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 92.5% – Games: 7
  2. Scott Thompson (NM) – Disposal efficiency: 89.3% – Games: 8
  3. Eric Mackenzie (WCE) – Disposal efficiency: 88.7% – Games: 9
  4. Dale Morris (WB) – Disposal efficiency: 88.4% – Games: 9
  5. Tim O’Brien (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 87.9% – Games: 6
  6. Harry Taylor (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 87.9% – Games: 9
  7. Kyle Cheney (Adel) – Disposal efficiency: 87.7% – Games: 9
  8. Lynden Dunn (Melb) – Disposal efficiency: 87.3% – Games: 4
  9. Alex Rance (Rich) – Disposal efficiency: 86.8% – Games: 7
  10. Michael Johnson (Fre) – Disposal efficiency: 86.5% – Games: 5
  11. Neville Jetta (Melb) – Disposal efficiency: 86.2% – Games: 8
  12. Kade Simpson (Carl) – Disposal efficiency: 85.8% – Games: 9
  13. Jason Johannisen (WB) – Disposal efficiency: 85.7% – Games: 4
  14. Jake Kolodjashnij (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 85.7% – Games: 6
  15. Shane Mumford (GWS) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 9
  16. James Frawley (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 8
  17. Lachie Henderson (Geel) – Disposal efficiency: 85.6% – Games: 8
  18. Michael Johnson (Fre) – Disposal efficiency: 85.5% – Games: 4
  19. Grant Birchall (Haw) – Disposal efficiency: 85.4% – Games: 9
  20. Michael Hartley (Ess) – Disposal efficiency: 85.4 – Games: 8
JFI, how many of those of Lonergan's kicks exceed 15 metres?
 

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