Analysis Geelong 2021 - contenders or a decline

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BigVic

Premiership Player
Sep 7, 2009
3,245
2,061
Bull Creek WA
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Chelsea, Barca, Houston Rockets
We’ve seen in the past GWS last year and Adelaide 2017 miss Finals the following following a loss to Richmond the previous year’s Grand Final. With Geelong losing the 2020 AFL grand final to Richmond, will they be up there again or slide down the ladder.
 

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Anja_Nees

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 14, 2001
5,958
8,067
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Had 14 players over 28 last week, some well into their 30s.

I know they’ve done very well to stay competitive over the long term but that is a serious imbalance and a lot of players heading out of their peak years.

Looks as though they’ll be trading to be thereabouts again, but I think they need a rejuvenation.
 

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Art Vandelay_

TheBrownDog
Oct 28, 2012
84,134
111,313
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Bushrangers
Thats what the hawks and crows thought too.

We will see.
Hawks and crows have done them before and are doing them now.

We have not in the AFL’s draft era. Once the draft became prominent have not had a pick better than 7 and not missed finals for more than 3 seasons at a time, and often only slipping out only 1 season at a time.

If you think we’re going to slide history suggests we will find a way to keep ourselves in contention.
 

Virus

Amazing
Oct 24, 2020
152
266
AFL Club
Geelong
If we finish top four in 2021 and the AFL is insisting on keeping the pre-finals bye then we’ll be playing a 2nd grand final in a row that we have no business being apart of. The only reason we made it this far was because Brisbane played 1 game in about a month.
 

Infamy

🐯🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
Oct 1, 2004
10,847
13,992
Melbourne, VIC
AFL Club
Richmond
If they get Cameron (28 next year) & Higgins (33 next year) then you would think they'll be Top 4 again, but the cliff they are approaching with an aging list will be one of the biggest in AFL history. They'd want to win a flag from this push as they will be in a lot of trouble once these older players start dropping off.
 

WillHayward

Premiership Player
Aug 13, 2018
4,593
6,150
Newcastle
AFL Club
Sydney
Hawks and crows have done them before and are doing them now.

We have not in the AFL’s draft era. Once the draft became prominent have not had a pick better than 7 and not missed finals for more than 3 seasons at a time, and often only slipping out only 1 season at a time.

If you think we’re going to slide history suggests we will find a way to keep ourselves in contention.
Crows and Hawks didnt plan on rebuilds. Thats my whole point.

The system is set up in a certain way.
Yes you have very done well to stay up so long which is a great credit to the running of the club.

Wont last forever. Sooner or later u will have a big drop.
 

btdg

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2005
4,163
4,307
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Carlton
I reckon they are a good chance to slide.

Losing Ablett, Taylor, and a few names like Narkle also potentially moving on. And even the blokes who feel younger are older than we think - Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola, Blicavs, Stanley all 28+ and Stewart is 27. This has been a long year and we’re deep in October now, that’s a short turnaround for older bodies, which likely means either a slow start to next year or mounting injuries...

Plus there has to be some scars from that GF effort in the same way there were for GWS and Adelaide. Hidden by a good start is that when the game was there to be won they got trounced to the tune of a 53 point turnaround that was really kickstarted by some absolute howler mistakes. Dangerfield and Hawkins utterly failed to show up, Rohan entrenched himself in the ‘worst grand final performers ever’ hall of fame, and the sheer brilliance of a backline that is somehow the most rock solid in the league yet comprised mostly of players who can melt at any moment was exposed.

Fast forward to mid next year and I wouldnt at all be surprised to see them where GWS were in 2020 - sitting in 9th-11th with everyone just assuming it will turn. Then suddenly the drop a howler on their home deck to a bottom 4 team, and finals become a stretch, and suddenly they’re facing the same cliff Hawthorn ran into this year.
 

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