Geelong 2025

[catstragic]

Enjoy this season guys, looking forward 16 of our current best 22 are likely to be doing something else other than footballing for a living. This is what the lists age profile like in four years. Also highlights how AtkinsClose/Miers/Constable/Narkle/Esava/Henry/Oconnor and Parfitts health and development are critical to long term success- Currently that's our future core. Get enough game time as possible into these guys as a unit and then plug in KPP's as availability dictates and I don't think the cliff is going to be quite as steep as many are prognosticating.

Name	Type	#	DOB	Age
Jed Bews	Def-Med-Gen	24	14 Dec, 1993	31 y 188 d	Prob gone
Mark Blicavs	Mid-Tall	46	28 Mar, 1991	34 y 84 d	gone
Jeremy Cameron	Fwd-Tall-Key	5	1 Apr, 1993	32 y 80 d	Prob gone
Jordan Clark	Def-Med-Gen	6	16 Oct, 2000	24 y 247 d
Charlie Constable	Mid-Tall	18	18 May, 1999	26 y 33 d
Luke Dahlhaus	Mid-Smal	40	21 Aug, 1992	32 y 303 d	gone
Patrick Dangerfield	Mid-Med	35	5 Apr, 1990	35 y 76 d	gone
Sam De Koning	Def-Tall-Key	16	26 Feb, 2001	24 y 114 d
Mitch Duncan	Mid-Med	22	10 Jun, 1991	34 y 10 d	gone
Francis Evans	Fwd-Med-Gen	31	23 Aug, 2001	23 y 301 d
Darcy Fort	Ruck-Tall	28	6 Aug, 1993	31 y 318 d
Cameron Guthrie	Mid-Med	29	19 Aug, 1992	32 y 305 d	Prob gone
Tom Hawkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	26	21 Jul, 1988	36 y 334 d	gone
Jack Henry	Fwd-Tall-Gen	38	29 Aug, 1998	26 y 295 d
Shaun Higgins	Fwd-Med-Gen	4	4 Mar, 1988	73 y 108 d	gone
Max Holmes	Mid-Med	9	29 Aug, 2002	22 y 295 d
Ben Jarvis	Fwd-Med-Gen	10	27 Jul, 2000	24 y 328 d
Josh Jenkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	11	8 Feb, 1989	36 y 132 d	gone
Jake Kolodjashnij	Def-Tall-Gen	8	9 Aug, 1995	29 y 315 d
Nathan Kreuger	Fwd-Tall-Key	15	25 Jun, 1999	25 y 360 d
Sam Menegola	Mid-Med	27	7 Mar, 1992	33 y 105 d	gone
Gryan Miers	Fwd-Smal-Gen	32	30 Mar, 1999	26 y 82 d
Quinton Narkle	Fwd-Med-Gen	19	3 Dec, 1997	27 y 199 d
Shannon Neale	Ruck-Tall	33	25 Jul, 2002	22 y 330 d
Mark O'Connor	Mid-Med	42	17 Jan, 1997	28 y 154 d
Brandan Parfitt	Mid-Smal	3	27 Apr, 1998	27 y 54 d
Esava Ratugolea	Fwd-Tall-Key	17	24 Jul, 1998	26 y 331 d
Gary Rohan	Fwd-Med-Gen	23	7 Jun, 1991	34 y 13 d	gone
Joel Selwood	Mid-Med	14	26 May, 1988	37 y 25 d	gone
Isaac Smith	Mid-Med	7	30 Dec, 1988	36 y 172 d	gone
Rhys Stanley	Util-Tall	1	1 Dec, 1990	34 y 201 d	gone
Cooper Stephens	Mid-Med	12	17 Jan, 2001	24 y 154 d
Nick Stevens	Def-Tall-Gen	21	23 Mar, 2002	23 y 89 d
Tom Stewart	Def-Tall-Key	44	15 Mar, 1993	32 y 97 d	Prob gone
Cameron Taheny	Mid-Med	41	3 Aug, 2001	23 y 321 d
Zach Tuohy	Def-Med-Gen	2	10 Dec, 1989	34 y 192 d	gone

Tom Atkins	Mid-Med	30	18 Sep, 1995	29 y 275 d
Oscar Brownless	Fwd-Med-Gen	20	16 Feb, 2000	25 y 124 d
Bradley Close	Fwd-Smal-Gen	45	30 Jul, 1998	26 y 325 d
Zach Guthrie	Def-Med-Gen	39	30 Jun, 1998	26 y 355 d
Lachie Henderson	Def-Tall-Key	25	14 Dec, 1989	35 y 188 d
Stefan Okunbor	Def-Tall-Key	43	12 Aug, 1998	26 y 312 d
Sam Simpson	Mid-Smal	37	14 Jun, 1998	27 y 6 d
Paul Tsapatolis	Ruck-Tall	36	20 Jun, 2002	23 y 0 d

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Stewart should still be around and Cameron is signed on to 2026.

I’ve stopped trying to predict 4-5 years into the future. Logically in 2011, we’d be pretty ****ed by 2016. Logically in 2016 we wouldn’t be a top side by 2020.

Obviously looking at our list now, we should be a bit shit by 2025. However, I have trust in the club that we’ll still be a good side then. They’ve earned that trust by what they’ve accomplished.

 

[cats_09]

Cameron will still be playing in 2025 - signed a 5 year contract when he joined the club, and had a trigger clause for a 6th year

I'd also think it's likely that guys like Stewart, Guthrie, Duncan, Bews, etc could very well still be playing and it will depend on their body more than their age. The same with Menegola & Blicavs who are seen as 2 of the fittest guys at the club

 

[standupand]

Enjoy this season guys, looking forward 16 of our current best 22 are likely to be doing something else other than footballing for a living. This is what the lists age profile like in four years. Also highlights how AtkinsClose/Miers/Constable/Narkle/Esava/Henry/Oconnor and Parfitts health and development are critical to long term success- Currently that's our future core. Get enough game time as possible into these guys as a unit and then plug in KPP's as availability dictates and I don't think the cliff is going to be quite as steep as many are prognosticating.

Name	Type	#	DOB	Age
Jed Bews	Def-Med-Gen	24	14 Dec, 1993	31 y 188 d	Prob gone
Mark Blicavs	Mid-Tall	46	28 Mar, 1991	34 y 84 d	gone
Jeremy Cameron	Fwd-Tall-Key	5	1 Apr, 1993	32 y 80 d	Prob gone
Jordan Clark	Def-Med-Gen	6	16 Oct, 2000	24 y 247 d
Charlie Constable	Mid-Tall	18	18 May, 1999	26 y 33 d
Luke Dahlhaus	Mid-Smal	40	21 Aug, 1992	32 y 303 d	gone
Patrick Dangerfield	Mid-Med	35	5 Apr, 1990	35 y 76 d	gone
Sam De Koning	Def-Tall-Key	16	26 Feb, 2001	24 y 114 d
Mitch Duncan	Mid-Med	22	10 Jun, 1991	34 y 10 d	gone
Francis Evans	Fwd-Med-Gen	31	23 Aug, 2001	23 y 301 d
Darcy Fort	Ruck-Tall	28	6 Aug, 1993	31 y 318 d
Cameron Guthrie	Mid-Med	29	19 Aug, 1992	32 y 305 d	Prob gone
Tom Hawkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	26	21 Jul, 1988	36 y 334 d	gone
Jack Henry	Fwd-Tall-Gen	38	29 Aug, 1998	26 y 295 d
Shaun Higgins	Fwd-Med-Gen	4	4 Mar, 1988	73 y 108 d	gone
Max Holmes	Mid-Med	9	29 Aug, 2002	22 y 295 d
Ben Jarvis	Fwd-Med-Gen	10	27 Jul, 2000	24 y 328 d
Josh Jenkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	11	8 Feb, 1989	36 y 132 d	gone
Jake Kolodjashnij	Def-Tall-Gen	8	9 Aug, 1995	29 y 315 d
Nathan Kreuger	Fwd-Tall-Key	15	25 Jun, 1999	25 y 360 d
Sam Menegola	Mid-Med	27	7 Mar, 1992	33 y 105 d	gone
Gryan Miers	Fwd-Smal-Gen	32	30 Mar, 1999	26 y 82 d
Quinton Narkle	Fwd-Med-Gen	19	3 Dec, 1997	27 y 199 d
Shannon Neale	Ruck-Tall	33	25 Jul, 2002	22 y 330 d
Mark O'Connor	Mid-Med	42	17 Jan, 1997	28 y 154 d
Brandan Parfitt	Mid-Smal	3	27 Apr, 1998	27 y 54 d
Esava Ratugolea	Fwd-Tall-Key	17	24 Jul, 1998	26 y 331 d
Gary Rohan	Fwd-Med-Gen	23	7 Jun, 1991	34 y 13 d	gone
Joel Selwood	Mid-Med	14	26 May, 1988	37 y 25 d	gone
Isaac Smith	Mid-Med	7	30 Dec, 1988	36 y 172 d	gone
Rhys Stanley	Util-Tall	1	1 Dec, 1990	34 y 201 d	gone
Cooper Stephens	Mid-Med	12	17 Jan, 2001	24 y 154 d
Nick Stevens	Def-Tall-Gen	21	23 Mar, 2002	23 y 89 d
Tom Stewart	Def-Tall-Key	44	15 Mar, 1993	32 y 97 d	Prob gone
Cameron Taheny	Mid-Med	41	3 Aug, 2001	23 y 321 d
Zach Tuohy	Def-Med-Gen	2	10 Dec, 1989	34 y 192 d	gone

Tom Atkins	Mid-Med	30	18 Sep, 1995	29 y 275 d
Oscar Brownless	Fwd-Med-Gen	20	16 Feb, 2000	25 y 124 d
Bradley Close	Fwd-Smal-Gen	45	30 Jul, 1998	26 y 325 d
Zach Guthrie	Def-Med-Gen	39	30 Jun, 1998	26 y 355 d
Lachie Henderson	Def-Tall-Key	25	14 Dec, 1989	35 y 188 d
Stefan Okunbor	Def-Tall-Key	43	12 Aug, 1998	26 y 312 d
Sam Simpson	Mid-Smal	37	14 Jun, 1998	27 y 6 d
Paul Tsapatolis	Ruck-Tall	36	20 Jun, 2002	23 y 0 d

Imagining a 73 year old Shaun Higgins running around out there...

 

[Sttew]

In 2025 Esava will be our full forward with 65%KE

 

[petrolium]

Around 3/4 of our list from 2016 are no longer on our list in 2021. It is impossible to predict who will be there in 2025, but history shows our list will look vastly different overall however there should hopefully be a core group of 5-6 players at least who come through together from now. This core group are now 21-22yrs old so essentially Henry, MOC, Parfitt, Narkle, Esava and Miers. I’d expect Stewart, Cameron, Menegola and C.Guthrie to still be there in 2025. Too early to say with our current recent draftees but history says majority won’t make it to 2025.

Those players should form virtually half of our 2025 team (still a very good group). Who the others are will be interesting, however as long as Cameron is there, I’m sure we’ll still be aiming to contend. Keep an eye on ex-Falcons or players from regional Vic on other AFL lists (as has been our recent trend) to come in to top up that group, along with future draftees of course, during this time.


Some possible additions to this group may include:
- Darcy Tucker (will be 29 in 2025)
- Sean Darcy (28)
- Lloyd Meek (28)
- Jackson Nelson (30)
- James Worpel (27)
- Jarrod Brander (27)
- Lachie Ash (25)
- Tanner Bruhn (24)
- Oliver Henry (24)

 

[catstragic]

Imagining a 73 year old Shaun Higgins running around out there...

Lol. I saw my typo after i posted and was gonna fix it but thought stuff it, either way he aint gonna be playing

 

[catstragic]

Stewart should still be around and Cameron is signed on to 2026.

I’ve stopped trying to predict 4-5 years into the future. Logically in 2011, we’d be pretty f’ed by 2016. Logically in 2016 we wouldn’t be a top side by 2020.

Obviously looking at our list now, we should be a bit sh*t by 2025. However, I have trust in the club that we’ll still be a good side then. They’ve earned that trust by what they’ve accomplished.

That's not my takeaway- I don't think we will be shit in 2025. I see an already very solid youthful core that will be in their prime. Hawkins is the really difficult one to replace-We have been blessed having him and he has been one of the top KPF's for nearly a decade. JC is has been excellent but Hawkins just does so many constructive things in the forward line, without him in the team I think our record over the last decade looks much worse. I also think the current list strategy makes sense-we are basically limiting experience for 1/2 of our future core players while giving our short term chances at a GF a boost.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I'll be honest, 2025 onwards is shaping as a pretty bleak period. Not bottom 4 type but that 8th-12th I reckon.
I'm not a doom and gloomer and no doubt the club will look to plug holes as they come up but geez we have a lot of super talent leaving within these next handful of years and I'm not sure if they are replaceable (more looking at Hawkins and Cameron, we don't have any young tall forward talent on the list currently).
Of course I wouldn't be surprised to see us STILL in top 4 contention either..

 

[FredLeDeux]

Enjoy this season guys, looking forward 16 of our current best 22 are likely to be doing something else other than footballing for a living. This is what the lists age profile like in four years. Also highlights how AtkinsClose/Miers/Constable/Narkle/Esava/Henry/Oconnor and Parfitts health and development are critical to long term success- Currently that's our future core. Get enough game time as possible into these guys as a unit and then plug in KPP's as availability dictates and I don't think the cliff is going to be quite as steep as many are prognosticating.

Name	Type	#	DOB	Age
Jed Bews	Def-Med-Gen	24	14 Dec, 1993	31 y 188 d	Prob gone
Mark Blicavs	Mid-Tall	46	28 Mar, 1991	34 y 84 d	gone
Jeremy Cameron	Fwd-Tall-Key	5	1 Apr, 1993	32 y 80 d	Prob gone
Jordan Clark	Def-Med-Gen	6	16 Oct, 2000	24 y 247 d
Charlie Constable	Mid-Tall	18	18 May, 1999	26 y 33 d
Luke Dahlhaus	Mid-Smal	40	21 Aug, 1992	32 y 303 d	gone
Patrick Dangerfield	Mid-Med	35	5 Apr, 1990	35 y 76 d	gone
Sam De Koning	Def-Tall-Key	16	26 Feb, 2001	24 y 114 d
Mitch Duncan	Mid-Med	22	10 Jun, 1991	34 y 10 d	gone
Francis Evans	Fwd-Med-Gen	31	23 Aug, 2001	23 y 301 d
Darcy Fort	Ruck-Tall	28	6 Aug, 1993	31 y 318 d
Cameron Guthrie	Mid-Med	29	19 Aug, 1992	32 y 305 d	Prob gone
Tom Hawkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	26	21 Jul, 1988	36 y 334 d	gone
Jack Henry	Fwd-Tall-Gen	38	29 Aug, 1998	26 y 295 d
Shaun Higgins	Fwd-Med-Gen	4	4 Mar, 1988	73 y 108 d	gone
Max Holmes	Mid-Med	9	29 Aug, 2002	22 y 295 d
Ben Jarvis	Fwd-Med-Gen	10	27 Jul, 2000	24 y 328 d
Josh Jenkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	11	8 Feb, 1989	36 y 132 d	gone
Jake Kolodjashnij	Def-Tall-Gen	8	9 Aug, 1995	29 y 315 d
Nathan Kreuger	Fwd-Tall-Key	15	25 Jun, 1999	25 y 360 d
Sam Menegola	Mid-Med	27	7 Mar, 1992	33 y 105 d	gone
Gryan Miers	Fwd-Smal-Gen	32	30 Mar, 1999	26 y 82 d
Quinton Narkle	Fwd-Med-Gen	19	3 Dec, 1997	27 y 199 d
Shannon Neale	Ruck-Tall	33	25 Jul, 2002	22 y 330 d
Mark O'Connor	Mid-Med	42	17 Jan, 1997	28 y 154 d
Brandan Parfitt	Mid-Smal	3	27 Apr, 1998	27 y 54 d
Esava Ratugolea	Fwd-Tall-Key	17	24 Jul, 1998	26 y 331 d
Gary Rohan	Fwd-Med-Gen	23	7 Jun, 1991	34 y 13 d	gone
Joel Selwood	Mid-Med	14	26 May, 1988	37 y 25 d	gone
Isaac Smith	Mid-Med	7	30 Dec, 1988	36 y 172 d	gone
Rhys Stanley	Util-Tall	1	1 Dec, 1990	34 y 201 d	gone
Cooper Stephens	Mid-Med	12	17 Jan, 2001	24 y 154 d
Nick Stevens	Def-Tall-Gen	21	23 Mar, 2002	23 y 89 d
Tom Stewart	Def-Tall-Key	44	15 Mar, 1993	32 y 97 d	Prob gone
Cameron Taheny	Mid-Med	41	3 Aug, 2001	23 y 321 d
Zach Tuohy	Def-Med-Gen	2	10 Dec, 1989	34 y 192 d	gone

Tom Atkins	Mid-Med	30	18 Sep, 1995	29 y 275 d
Oscar Brownless	Fwd-Med-Gen	20	16 Feb, 2000	25 y 124 d
Bradley Close	Fwd-Smal-Gen	45	30 Jul, 1998	26 y 325 d
Zach Guthrie	Def-Med-Gen	39	30 Jun, 1998	26 y 355 d
Lachie Henderson	Def-Tall-Key	25	14 Dec, 1989	35 y 188 d
Stefan Okunbor	Def-Tall-Key	43	12 Aug, 1998	26 y 312 d
Sam Simpson	Mid-Smal	37	14 Jun, 1998	27 y 6 d
Paul Tsapatolis	Ruck-Tall	36	20 Jun, 2002	23 y 0 d

So, Kolo is Captain

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Imagining a 73 year old Shaun Higgins running around out there...

I'm imagining Shaun Higgins will be a vfl regular next year and retired the next

 

[Turbocat]

Enjoy this season guys, looking forward 16 of our current best 22 are likely to be doing something else other than footballing for a living. This is what the lists age profile like in four years. Also highlights how AtkinsClose/Miers/Constable/Narkle/Esava/Henry/Oconnor and Parfitts health and development are critical to long term success- Currently that's our future core. Get enough game time as possible into these guys as a unit and then plug in KPP's as availability dictates and I don't think the cliff is going to be quite as steep as many are prognosticating.

Name	Type	#	DOB	Age
Jed Bews	Def-Med-Gen	24	14 Dec, 1993	31 y 188 d	Prob gone
Mark Blicavs	Mid-Tall	46	28 Mar, 1991	34 y 84 d	gone
Jeremy Cameron	Fwd-Tall-Key	5	1 Apr, 1993	32 y 80 d	Prob gone
Jordan Clark	Def-Med-Gen	6	16 Oct, 2000	24 y 247 d
Charlie Constable	Mid-Tall	18	18 May, 1999	26 y 33 d
Luke Dahlhaus	Mid-Smal	40	21 Aug, 1992	32 y 303 d	gone
Patrick Dangerfield	Mid-Med	35	5 Apr, 1990	35 y 76 d	gone
Sam De Koning	Def-Tall-Key	16	26 Feb, 2001	24 y 114 d
Mitch Duncan	Mid-Med	22	10 Jun, 1991	34 y 10 d	gone
Francis Evans	Fwd-Med-Gen	31	23 Aug, 2001	23 y 301 d
Darcy Fort	Ruck-Tall	28	6 Aug, 1993	31 y 318 d
Cameron Guthrie	Mid-Med	29	19 Aug, 1992	32 y 305 d	Prob gone
Tom Hawkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	26	21 Jul, 1988	36 y 334 d	gone
Jack Henry	Fwd-Tall-Gen	38	29 Aug, 1998	26 y 295 d
Shaun Higgins	Fwd-Med-Gen	4	4 Mar, 1988	73 y 108 d	gone
Max Holmes	Mid-Med	9	29 Aug, 2002	22 y 295 d
Ben Jarvis	Fwd-Med-Gen	10	27 Jul, 2000	24 y 328 d
Josh Jenkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	11	8 Feb, 1989	36 y 132 d	gone
Jake Kolodjashnij	Def-Tall-Gen	8	9 Aug, 1995	29 y 315 d
Nathan Kreuger	Fwd-Tall-Key	15	25 Jun, 1999	25 y 360 d
Sam Menegola	Mid-Med	27	7 Mar, 1992	33 y 105 d	gone
Gryan Miers	Fwd-Smal-Gen	32	30 Mar, 1999	26 y 82 d
Quinton Narkle	Fwd-Med-Gen	19	3 Dec, 1997	27 y 199 d
Shannon Neale	Ruck-Tall	33	25 Jul, 2002	22 y 330 d
Mark O'Connor	Mid-Med	42	17 Jan, 1997	28 y 154 d
Brandan Parfitt	Mid-Smal	3	27 Apr, 1998	27 y 54 d
Esava Ratugolea	Fwd-Tall-Key	17	24 Jul, 1998	26 y 331 d
Gary Rohan	Fwd-Med-Gen	23	7 Jun, 1991	34 y 13 d	gone
Joel Selwood	Mid-Med	14	26 May, 1988	37 y 25 d	gone
Isaac Smith	Mid-Med	7	30 Dec, 1988	36 y 172 d	gone
Rhys Stanley	Util-Tall	1	1 Dec, 1990	34 y 201 d	gone
Cooper Stephens	Mid-Med	12	17 Jan, 2001	24 y 154 d
Nick Stevens	Def-Tall-Gen	21	23 Mar, 2002	23 y 89 d
Tom Stewart	Def-Tall-Key	44	15 Mar, 1993	32 y 97 d	Prob gone
Cameron Taheny	Mid-Med	41	3 Aug, 2001	23 y 321 d
Zach Tuohy	Def-Med-Gen	2	10 Dec, 1989	34 y 192 d	gone

Tom Atkins	Mid-Med	30	18 Sep, 1995	29 y 275 d
Oscar Brownless	Fwd-Med-Gen	20	16 Feb, 2000	25 y 124 d
Bradley Close	Fwd-Smal-Gen	45	30 Jul, 1998	26 y 325 d
Zach Guthrie	Def-Med-Gen	39	30 Jun, 1998	26 y 355 d
Lachie Henderson	Def-Tall-Key	25	14 Dec, 1989	35 y 188 d
Stefan Okunbor	Def-Tall-Key	43	12 Aug, 1998	26 y 312 d
Sam Simpson	Mid-Smal	37	14 Jun, 1998	27 y 6 d
Paul Tsapatolis	Ruck-Tall	36	20 Jun, 2002	23 y 0 d

There are probably two or three that one might predict is gone and are still in the side. Likewize players like Tarheny, Stevens, Stephens, Neale, Fort, Constable have done nothing to convince me that they are certain to be on our list in 2025.

Its like trying to predict the weather for the 2025 GF. If we went back 5 years... would you have said we would would have Cameron, Smith, Higgins, had Tim Kelly, Jack Stevens come and gone etc...

Id agree that by the names things might be dire. They could also be alright... and if all the players we like develop, they could be still a good side. Id say it's probable we fall out of contention for a couple of years unless we develop a couple of high end players from the players we have drafted. Would we have said in 2016 that Guthrie would be AA.

 

[catempire]

Relevant to this topic…

This post from 2017. Shows (1) how much list turnover is possible in four years (2) how much is unknowable this far out.

Part II: Are we approaching “The Cliff”?

First a definitional issue – what is The Cliff? I’d say it’s where your list gets to a point that it’s clear that you can’t win a flag with the core of your current group and you have to make a fairly sudden change in approach to your list management approach by building from the bottom-up. It also involves the gap in talent between you and the contenders being so great that the only way to bridge it is through natural improvement in draftees over a longer time horizon. Plugging gaps with imported players will not be sufficient.

A good start to assess if we are headed that way is to look at our best 25 players and see how many of them will be retired in 3-4 years’ time (as distinct from those that are traded because you at least get a return on them). Let’s make a conservative assumption that anyone 27 years old or over now will not be here in four years time (to play season 2021).

Let’s work with:

Lonergan, Tom 32
Mackie, Andrew 32
Taylor, Harry 30
Hawkins, Tom 28
Selwood, Joel 28
Henderson, Lachlan 27
Smith, Zac 27
Tuohy, Zach 27
Dangerfield, Patrick 26
Motlop, Steven 26
Selwood, Scott 26
Stanley, Rhys 26
Blicavs, Mark 25
Duncan, Mitchell 25
Menegola, Sam 25
Menzel, Daniel 25
Guthrie, Cameron 24
Horlin-Smith, George 24
Murdoch, Jordan 24
Ruggles, Tom 24
McCarthy, Lincoln 23
Thurlow, Jackson 22
Kolodjashnij, Jake 21
Lang, Darcy 21
Cockatoo, Nakia 20

So let’s assume that’s eight players gone.

Now let’s go back four years (season 2013) and have a look at our list. In our best 25 players we had these players who have since departed:

Steve Johnson
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Mathew Stokes
Corey Enright
Paul Chapman
Joel Corey
James Podsiadly
Josh Hunt
Jared Rivers

That’s 10 best 25 players we have since lost from our 2013 side.

Now, I’m sure you can all remember that around that time in 2012-2013 everyone was freaking out and saying “how on earth are we going to replace all of these players? We are surely headed for The Cliff!” But as we know, it didn’t happen (for the reasons I set out in Part I). And we still made a Prelim in 2016 and we are good odds to do so again in 2017. How did we avoid The Cliff?

These are the players who have been added to our list since 2013 and have effectively replaced the 10 players now departed in our best 25 and the means by which we acquired them (in brackets):

Henderson (pick 17 2016)
Smith (picks 49 and 53)
Tuohy (2017 first round pick and pick 63 with Carlton’s 2017 second round pick coming back to us)
Dangerfield (picks 9 2015, 28 and Dean Gore)
Scott Selwood (free agent)
Rhys Stanley (pick 21 traded for Christensen)
Sam Menegola (drafted with pick 66)
Ruggles (drafted with pick 44 rookie draft)
Kolodjashnij (drafted with pick 41)
Lang (drafted with pick 16 2013)
Cockatoo (drafted with pick 10 2014)

So in sum, to replace the departed 10 from 2013 it took six first round picks, one second round pick, a bunch of later picks, a rookie pick and a free agent. We managed to “use” six first round picks in that time because we got an extra through Christensen and we have already used this year’s to get Tuohy.

But what it demonstrates is that replacing 10 or so of your best 25 players in a four year period is entirely possible. We can and we will replace Lonergan, Mackie, Taylor, Hawkins, Selwood, Henderson Smith and Tuohy by the time 2021 rolls around. It will be done using (in draft or trade or combination) the three first round picks we have between now and then, the four second round picks, the bunch of later picks, and any free agents we can entice.

There is a question for debate about whether we have the younger cohort now that can step into the middle aged cohort we have now – Motlop, S.Selwood , Stanley, Blicavs, Duncan, Menegola, Menzel, Guthrie, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Ruggles and McCarthy. Are we going to be able to find their equivalents from Buzza, House, Kolodjashnij, Lang, Cockatoo, Cunico, Gregson, Hayball, O'Connor, Gardner, Narkle, Parsons, Z.Guthrie, Henry, Jones, Parfitt, Ratugolea and Simpson? I can see the doubt about that proposition. Only Kolo, Lang, Cockatoo and Gregson have shown AFL quality so far. We are going to need to have quite a few of the others step up to fill the gaps.

In summary, are we inevitably headed for the cliff and a rebuild? It’s possible but I don’t think it’s right to say it’s inevitable.

Next up: Part III - What does a 'conventional rebuild' look like (and is it any better than the alternative)?

 

[Ricketz]

Enjoy this season guys, looking forward 16 of our current best 22 are likely to be doing something else other than footballing for a living. This is what the lists age profile like in four years. Also highlights how AtkinsClose/Miers/Constable/Narkle/Esava/Henry/Oconnor and Parfitts health and development are critical to long term success- Currently that's our future core. Get enough game time as possible into these guys as a unit and then plug in KPP's as availability dictates and I don't think the cliff is going to be quite as steep as many are prognosticating.

Name	Type	#	DOB	Age
Jed Bews	Def-Med-Gen	24	14 Dec, 1993	31 y 188 d	Prob gone
Mark Blicavs	Mid-Tall	46	28 Mar, 1991	34 y 84 d	gone
Jeremy Cameron	Fwd-Tall-Key	5	1 Apr, 1993	32 y 80 d	Prob gone
Jordan Clark	Def-Med-Gen	6	16 Oct, 2000	24 y 247 d
Charlie Constable	Mid-Tall	18	18 May, 1999	26 y 33 d
Luke Dahlhaus	Mid-Smal	40	21 Aug, 1992	32 y 303 d	gone
Patrick Dangerfield	Mid-Med	35	5 Apr, 1990	35 y 76 d	gone
Sam De Koning	Def-Tall-Key	16	26 Feb, 2001	24 y 114 d
Mitch Duncan	Mid-Med	22	10 Jun, 1991	34 y 10 d	gone
Francis Evans	Fwd-Med-Gen	31	23 Aug, 2001	23 y 301 d
Darcy Fort	Ruck-Tall	28	6 Aug, 1993	31 y 318 d
Cameron Guthrie	Mid-Med	29	19 Aug, 1992	32 y 305 d	Prob gone
Tom Hawkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	26	21 Jul, 1988	36 y 334 d	gone
Jack Henry	Fwd-Tall-Gen	38	29 Aug, 1998	26 y 295 d
Shaun Higgins	Fwd-Med-Gen	4	4 Mar, 1988	73 y 108 d	gone
Max Holmes	Mid-Med	9	29 Aug, 2002	22 y 295 d
Ben Jarvis	Fwd-Med-Gen	10	27 Jul, 2000	24 y 328 d
Josh Jenkins	Fwd-Tall-Key	11	8 Feb, 1989	36 y 132 d	gone
Jake Kolodjashnij	Def-Tall-Gen	8	9 Aug, 1995	29 y 315 d
Nathan Kreuger	Fwd-Tall-Key	15	25 Jun, 1999	25 y 360 d
Sam Menegola	Mid-Med	27	7 Mar, 1992	33 y 105 d	gone
Gryan Miers	Fwd-Smal-Gen	32	30 Mar, 1999	26 y 82 d
Quinton Narkle	Fwd-Med-Gen	19	3 Dec, 1997	27 y 199 d
Shannon Neale	Ruck-Tall	33	25 Jul, 2002	22 y 330 d
Mark O'Connor	Mid-Med	42	17 Jan, 1997	28 y 154 d
Brandan Parfitt	Mid-Smal	3	27 Apr, 1998	27 y 54 d
Esava Ratugolea	Fwd-Tall-Key	17	24 Jul, 1998	26 y 331 d
Gary Rohan	Fwd-Med-Gen	23	7 Jun, 1991	34 y 13 d	gone
Joel Selwood	Mid-Med	14	26 May, 1988	37 y 25 d	gone
Isaac Smith	Mid-Med	7	30 Dec, 1988	36 y 172 d	gone
Rhys Stanley	Util-Tall	1	1 Dec, 1990	34 y 201 d	gone
Cooper Stephens	Mid-Med	12	17 Jan, 2001	24 y 154 d
Nick Stevens	Def-Tall-Gen	21	23 Mar, 2002	23 y 89 d
Tom Stewart	Def-Tall-Key	44	15 Mar, 1993	32 y 97 d	Prob gone
Cameron Taheny	Mid-Med	41	3 Aug, 2001	23 y 321 d
Zach Tuohy	Def-Med-Gen	2	10 Dec, 1989	34 y 192 d	gone

Tom Atkins	Mid-Med	30	18 Sep, 1995	29 y 275 d
Oscar Brownless	Fwd-Med-Gen	20	16 Feb, 2000	25 y 124 d
Bradley Close	Fwd-Smal-Gen	45	30 Jul, 1998	26 y 325 d
Zach Guthrie	Def-Med-Gen	39	30 Jun, 1998	26 y 355 d
Lachie Henderson	Def-Tall-Key	25	14 Dec, 1989	35 y 188 d
Stefan Okunbor	Def-Tall-Key	43	12 Aug, 1998	26 y 312 d
Sam Simpson	Mid-Smal	37	14 Jun, 1998	27 y 6 d
Paul Tsapatolis	Ruck-Tall	36	20 Jun, 2002	23 y 0 d

I don't reckon you can assume anyone 32 and under will be probably gone, save a career ending injury or being traded. I think players will consistently be playing past 33 these days.

 

[Drunkcat]

Imagining a 73 year old Shaun Higgins running around out there...

Playing like 72 year old now....Well done would have took me 4hrs to put that up lol

 

[catempire]

Between now and going into season 2025 we will have had access to:

Three first round picks
Six second round picks
Four third round picks
Four fourth round picks
(Etc.)
Four opportunities to trade in players
Four opportunities to bring in free agents

Plus the players outside your best 25 should have had ample opportunity to come into their own, like Kolo, O’Connor, Narkle, Parfitt, Ratugolea and Simpson did in the 2017 exercise above.

You should be able to replace any dozen players in that time. They won’t all be at the peak of their powers at once nor do you need them to be. You just need to maintain an overall level of quality that keeps you in the mix.

There is zero reason why Geelong won’t continue to replenish beyond this year and up until and beyond 2025.

 

[Turbocat]

Between now and going into season 2025 we will have had access to:

Three first round picks
Six second round picks
Four third round picks
Four fourth round picks
(Etc.)
Four opportunities to trade in players
Four opportunities to bring in free agents

Plus the players outside your best 25 should have had ample opportunity to come into their own, like Kolo, O’Connor, Narkle, Parfitt, Ratugolea and Simpson did in the 2017 exercise above.

You should be able to replace any dozen players in that time. They won’t all be at the peak of their powers at once nor do you need them to be. You just need to maintain an overall level of quality that keeps you in the mix.

There is zero reason why Geelong won’t continue to replenish beyond this year and up until and beyond 2025.

Id say in that period we probably have access to three or four FA's. It would not be hard to change the list profile , whether that is a solution to quality is a different discussion..which the list above seems to be centric about. For eg we could add Billings and Ross from Stkilda as Free Agents with little complaint from Stkilda imo. Do we want them? Probably not but there will be players that we would want. 12 months ago id have said we would not want Smith.

My only query is losing the absolute quality players that we have previous had from very early picks. How do we replace them. Probably do no not thru draft. The picks you have mention. We probably do not use them all , we probably trade a player or two in.It could all go pear shape... but its hard to see us becoming Gold Coast any time soon. Too many players will look at Rohan and Cameron etc and will want to participate in that.


So then at the draft we just need to find enough rough cut gems. Perhaps like Holmes. The 2016 draft is the one we can judge our approach by. WE did that while bringing in players. Stewart has played the most games from that draft. If we could find another one like him , it all changes.

 

[winty]

The way Hawkins is going this year, it wouldn't surprise me if he's still running around in 2025. Getting better with age.

 

[standupand]

Playing like 72 year old now....Well done would have took me 4hrs to put that up lol

lol But seriously, how good would it be if he was back at the club as a 73 year old to celebrate the 40 year anniversary reunion of the 2021 premiership.

 

[standupand]

The way Hawkins is going this year, it wouldn't surprise me if he's still running around in 2025. Getting better with age.

Even with a few 30 year olds on the list now, we're not looking at a cliff in the next 4 years. We already have promising young players who are best 22 or thereabouts on every line. It is Tom Hawkins who stands out as the player we just can't replace. When he calls it a day, I think we'll struggle to keep being contenders.

 

[Turbocat]

The way Hawkins is going this year, it wouldn't surprise me if he's still running around in 2025. Getting better with age.

The end can come quick

 

[jim boy]

In 2011 we were the oldest premiership team, have done ok since then.

Geelong doesn't really bottom out - have never finished below 12, no current Geelong player was alive when we last finished bottom 4, 53 years since we last won a wooden spoon (with a not too shabby 4 wins from 18 matches).

 

[standupand]

In 2011 we were the oldest premiership team, have done ok since then.

Geelong doesn't really bottom out - have never finished below 12, no current Geelong player was alive when we last finished bottom 4, 53 years since we last won a wooden spoon (with a not too shabby 4 wins from 18 matches).

Sucks having to always call St Kilda up whenever we need to stir the damn soup.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I'll be honest, 2025 onwards is shaping as a pretty bleak period. Not bottom 4 type but that 8th-12th I reckon.
I'm not a doom and gloomer and no doubt the club will look to plug holes as they come up but geez we have a lot of super talent leaving within these next handful of years and I'm not sure if they are replaceable (more looking at Hawkins and Cameron, we don't have any young tall forward talent on the list currently).
Of course I wouldn't be surprised to see us STILL in top 4 contention either..

we have alot less talent departing in the period your highlighting than we had depart between 2010-2020 yet here we are.

im not saying we won't decline.. we literally have to eventually... it is getting to the point of almost AFL rule changes to almost strap a sand bag to our bags like they do the horses...

if we hit RFA/FA, trade, and draft in similar fashion... we will continue to be a good side. Will all depend on our continued recruitment strategies.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

we have alot less talent departing in the period your highlighting than we had depart between 2010-2020 yet here we are.

im not saying we won't decline.. we literally have to eventually... it is getting to the point of almost AFL rule changes to almost strap a sand bag to our bags like they do the horses...

if we hit RFA/FA, trade, and draft in similar fashion... we will continue to be a good side. Will all depend on our continued recruitment strategies.

We do for sure.
It's a short term view of course, as in I look at the team statically as it is now and who we will lose without accounting for the types of players we might bring in, and in that I think Hawkins and Selwood leaving is our critical mass.
When Otto, Ling, Moons etc all left we still have a core group of senior players, they are almost exhausted now.
Of course that's ignoring natural growth and progression from those currently on the list and the improvement they'll likely bring, and the potential of other inclusions.