Geelong - back to back?

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BigVic

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Hawthorn 1991 were Too Old, Too Slow but were too good exactly like Geelong this year.
 

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lordbob

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Aug 21, 2009
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Geelong managed their team fantastically this year and that contributed to the health of their list.

Im gonna say they will drop next year. Simply because their best players are mostly coming into the twilight of their careers and this is when the body starts falling away.
28+ players in the GF team
28 - Bews
29 - C. Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron
30 - Rohan, Duncan
31 - Blicavs, Stanley
32 - Dangerfield, Tuohy
33 - Smith, Hawkins, Selwood

Thats 13/22 grand final players that are highly unlikely (but still possible) to see an improvement in and will be hard pressed to not experience a decline in output.

In saying that, their best was better than the rest of the competition this year so it will largely come down to how many retire and how many can continue to perform at their current level or near enough to it.
 

SA HAWK

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Correct but maybe this year causes them to fix it up a bit. Also need to deepen the midfield and as good as they are have less dependency on Gawn, Petraca and Oliver. All very achievable.
The forward line is a personnel problem not sure how they fix that.

Not many good key forwards on the market.
 

BF Tiger

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I think they start favourites for 2023, and if they have a good run with injury they'll give it a real shake. The Hawkins-Cameron double act is so hard to contain and is their most important set-up IMHO. Need them to both be healthy at the business end of the season.
 

blueiris

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Surely some of Dads army have to retire soon they probably have one last creak in them though
 

Cyber_punk

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Surely some of Dads army have to retire soon they probably have one last creak in them though

With the form they are in they should probably go again. Why die wondering? Squeeze as much juice from the orange while you can.
 

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JohnZ

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Geelong managed their team fantastically this year and that contributed to the health of their list.

Im gonna say they will drop next year. Simply because their best players are mostly coming into the twilight of their careers and this is when the body starts falling away.
28+ players in the GF team
28 - Bews
29 - C. Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron
30 - Rohan, Duncan
31 - Blicavs, Stanley
32 - Dangerfield, Tuohy
33 - Smith, Hawkins, Selwood

Thats 13/22 grand final players that are highly unlikely (but still possible) to see an improvement in and will be hard pressed to not experience a decline in output.

In saying that, their best was better than the rest of the competition this year so it will largely come down to how many retire and how many can continue to perform at their current level or near enough to it.
Question. If you say that the likes of Smith, Hawkins, Selwood, Dangerfield and Tuohy have peaked and declining, does that decline start now, or back when they were 28? Because either Bews, Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron have peaked earlier than them, or have another 2-3 years before they decline based on your "logic".

Maybe some of them will hit the wall (so to speak), but based on output none of them looked cooked on the weekend (as opposed to say Sam Reid or Buddy Franklin). Don't see any reason why their output next year wouldn't match their output this year (whilst the younger brigade continue to improve and maybe even push them out of the team).
 

DanA

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Geelong managed their team fantastically this year and that contributed to the health of their list.

Im gonna say they will drop next year. Simply because their best players are mostly coming into the twilight of their careers and this is when the body starts falling away.
28+ players in the GF team
28 - Bews
29 - C. Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron
30 - Rohan, Duncan
31 - Blicavs, Stanley
32 - Dangerfield, Tuohy
33 - Smith, Hawkins, Selwood

Thats 13/22 grand final players that are highly unlikely (but still possible) to see an improvement in and will be hard pressed to not experience a decline in output.

In saying that, their best was better than the rest of the competition this year so it will largely come down to how many retire and how many can continue to perform at their current level or near enough to it.
From that list I would say:
  • Hawkins, Touhy, Smith, Blicavs, and Stanley are playing the best or near best football of their career
  • Selwood & Dangerfield have seen a significant decline in the last 3 years
  • C.Guthrie has had a shoulder injury for the last two years which may have a permanent negative impact.
  • Rohan was back to seeing a fair bit of injury time on the sideline.
  • No issues with the rest and I'd say Menegola was well of his best with injuries in 2022
On the flip side
  • Holmes, De Koning would be expected to make significant progress in 2023
  • Miers, Stengle, Zuthrie, and Close are still in that 50-100 game area where players improve.
We might not be much better but I'm not sure we will be much worse either. We've got a pretty good nucleus of 30 players and it might be that we add to that with the likes of Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn, and a kid or two developing in the VFL. For the most part it will likely be the same team though.
 

juss

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Geelong had a commanding win this weekend, but they had just about everything go right for them this year, and had basically a full list to pick from when finals rolled around while having strong continuity in their best 22 all year.

However, the question must be asked regarding Geelong's premiership chances in 2023, and how likely they are to go back to back. Anyone who's played footy will tell you how hard it is to win a premiership let alone defend one, and Geelong know this better than just about anyone, having last gone back to back 70 years ago despite having some incredibly dominant sides over that time.

Do you think Geelong will go back to back, and how do you like their chances of them being able to successfully defend their premiership?
Back to backs are more unlikely than likely, as even one flag is hard to win.

I can see some other clubs being stronger contenders with more hunger in 2023 and winning the flag, which is not a knock on Geelong, it's just how the premiership chase goes.
 

DanA

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Their fitness and conditioning is underrated never gets brought up.

If you dig into the list, there's no doubt Geelong has targeted some pretty great endurance runners. I would guess Blicavs, I.Smith, and Holmes are all in the top half-dozen distance runners in the AFL with several others that I'd consider good runners. As a Cats fan, it has become noticeable in the 4th quarter.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Agreed.

Maybe it's partly wishful thinking on my part but feel like this flag was a culmination of a decade of efforts and disappointment that fueled the group and that is something that I'm not sure the older bodies can sustain again.

Mentally i think all the older players are still very hungry its just whether our medical guys can manage them well enough that they can still perform well and avoid injuries. No doubt most of our older guys will be regularly rested to keep them fresh like selwood was this year.
 

Heeney2Franklin

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If you dig into the list, there's no doubt Geelong has targeted some pretty great endurance runners. I would guess Blicavs, I.Smith, and Holmes are all in the top half-dozen distance runners in the AFL with several others that I'd consider good runners. As a Cats fan, it has become noticeable in the 4th quarter.

Holmes deserved a medal in hindsight you could of carried him in the side quite easily :moustache:
 

lordbob

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Question. If you say that the likes of Smith, Hawkins, Selwood, Dangerfield and Tuohy have peaked and declining, does that decline start now, or back when they were 28? Because either Bews, Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron have peaked earlier than them, or have another 2-3 years before they decline based on your "logic".

Maybe some of them will hit the wall (so to speak), but based on output none of them looked cooked on the weekend (as opposed to say Sam Reid or Buddy Franklin). Don't see any reason why their output next year wouldn't match their output this year (whilst the younger brigade continue to improve and maybe even push them out of the team).
Im not saying they will definitely decline, more that the older players will eventually decline. Some start declining much later eg burgoyne/harvey, others have their decline earlier. With them all being another year older, its another year closer. Whether that year is next year or not is yet to be seen, but i wouldnt be betting my house that none of them experience a decline next year. Which ones and by how much only time will tell.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Who do you think the retirements might be aside from perhaps Joel Selwood?

Pretty much all the older guys are either already contracted for next year (danger duncan blitz stanley ceglar etc) or recently mentioned they want to go on (hawk smith tuohy etc). Of course some might change their minds and decide to go out on a high but i expect all of the older guys to go on bar dahlhaus who will retire/be delisted.
 

Defabs

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With the form they are in they should probably go again. Why die wondering? Squeeze as much juice from the orange while you can.
That’s what Brisbane did and it set them back nearly 15 years. They did make one finals in between but that was it. That’s the price you pay if you are not successful the year after.

Similarly although Collingwood lost the GFs in 2002 and 2003, Collingwood erred by not trading out, retiring or delisting any of the 22 from the 2003 GF team. It caused 2 years of being chained to the bottom as a result.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Geelong managed their team fantastically this year and that contributed to the health of their list.

Im gonna say they will drop next year. Simply because their best players are mostly coming into the twilight of their careers and this is when the body starts falling away.
28+ players in the GF team
28 - Bews
29 - C. Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron
30 - Rohan, Duncan
31 - Blicavs, Stanley
32 - Dangerfield, Tuohy
33 - Smith, Hawkins, Selwood

Thats 13/22 grand final players that are highly unlikely (but still possible) to see an improvement in and will be hard pressed to not experience a decline in output.

In saying that, their best was better than the rest of the competition this year so it will largely come down to how many retire and how many can continue to perform at their current level or near enough to it.

Those are all valid points but id add some things.
Its likely de koning will continue to get better as he grows into afl.
Guys like zuthrie atkins close have taken massive steps forward this year and are on an upward trajectory.
Menegola barely played this year due to injury and was best 22 prior (admittedly at his age injuries can be terminal but equally he could come straight back in).
Holmes was massively improved this year and will be a really good player moving forward. If henry and bruhn come thats 3 first round picks from 2020 who have the potential to come into the 22 and impact next year.
The club is quite bullish on stephens (who was a first round pick from 2019 and has had an awful injury run) as well as conway neale and dempsey.
Obviously theres a lot of ifs in there but theres enough talent on the list that if 4 or 5 of thossle guys come through next year (like stengle sdk holmes zuthrie etc did this year) that we can still contend even if 4 or 5 of the older guys get injured or drop off in form.

That said theres a reason why going back to back has happened so rarely in the modern era its incredibly hard to do. So im definitely not expecting we will.
 

Pure_Ownage

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That’s what Brisbane did and it set them back nearly 15 years. They did make one finals in between but that was it. That’s the price you pay if you are not successful the year after.

Similarly although Collingwood lost the GFs in 2002 and 2003, Collingwood erred by not trading out, retiring or delisting any of the 22 from the 2003 GF team. It caused 2 years of being chained to the bottom as a result.
Going again next year wont do that in and of itself. Particularly since we can rest and rotate guys again. But if say 13 older guys all retire in the same year and you have to put half a team of kids in then it can set you back years. The key is to stagger the retirements 3 or 4 at a time over each of the next 4 years which im sure the club will try to do. That makes more sense to me.
 

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