Geelong & Brisbane - a very rare miss

carnaroys08

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Sep 4, 2007
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If Tigers didn’t have to contend with the injury issues in the first half of the year, I doubt one of those teams would of been top 2. I would question the near miss. One of them should never have been top 2.
Yeah good call. Assessing The Lions, realistically, Brisbane had a bit of luck to clock up wins in Rounds 1, 2, 3, 9, 22 & were a bit stiff not to win Rounds 8, 10, 12. We had 16 wins yet the Bombers, Pies, Tigers & GWS had the wood on us & Geelong were a little stiff not to have won at the Gabba that hot day. That puts 4 or 5 teams in front of us & indicates the Lions realistic spot in the pecking order this year (with the bottom 6 draw) was genuinely 5th or 6th.
 
Yeah good call. Assessing The Lions, realistically, Brisbane had a bit of luck to clock up wins in Rounds 1, 2, 3, 9, 22 & were a bit stiff not to win Rounds 8, 10, 12. We had 16 wins yet the Bombers, Pies, Tigers & GWS had the wood on us & Geelong were a little stiff not to have won at the Gabba that hot day. That puts 4 or 5 teams in front of us & indicates the Lions realistic spot in the pecking order this year (with the bottom 6 draw) was genuinely 5th or 6th.

I’m not putting you guys down. You had a great year. Absolute ripper in fact and are great to watch. But top 4 is another step up again. There’s no reason why you can’t achieve great things in the next 5 years.


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May 8, 2007
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Don't underestimate the effect of the draw. When and who you play is huge. As had been said, you may get lucky with injuries or suspensions - maybe not.

When the 2019 draw came out, it had Richmond playing 3 of last years Top 4 in the last 5 rounds. Now Melbourne turned out to be crap, but Richmond also got Brisbane, who were pretty good in 2019.

By comparison, West Coast had a dream run into the finals - the only Top-4 side from 2018 they played in the last 5 rounds was Richmond. (They also played Hawthorn, who were Top-4 after the 2018 H&A, but crashed in straight sets). Collingwood played 2 of the 2018 Top-4 (but one of them was Melbourne) no 2018 Top-4 sides in the last 5 rounds (they did cop Brisbane).

I have no idea if this was and advantage or disadvantage for Richmond - it's just variations in the draw. You can draw your own conclusion. Apparently it is better to play at home leading into the finals - is it better to play good or not-so-good sides in the run-in?

Look - The AFL competition has 2 interesting quirks. An un-balanced fixture, and a final series that gives rewards to the better-performed clubs throughout that unbalanced fixture. We argue about it endlessly, it could be fixed, but it looks we are stuck with it.
 

Jack5

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Three teams finished on the same number of wins at the top of the ladder. So cant really say there was a clear top two by any material amount. Where are they if they drop a game and a half?

How much do you think Brisbane's draw was worth or Geelong's home ground advantage? Take off a game and half and they may not have made top four, depending on who you give the points to.

People have already mentioned injury runs to Tigers, Pies and Giants throughout the year compared to Cats and Lions with players coming back in for finals.
 

carnaroys08

Cancelled
Sep 4, 2007
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Brisbane Lions
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Cowboys, Storm.
Yeah, it is an unusual stat. I guess it brings into question the weighted draw system. Take Melbourne for example. Blinder last season, terrible this season, do they get a softer draw, will it assist them getting back up the ladder next year.
Brisbane had a soft draw. Can they maintain it? I think they really were a 5-8 list. Not a top 4 list yet.
The Lions draw was interesting. I wouldn't call it soft. The teams we drew twice were Hawks (Top 4 H&A), Dogs, Port, North & Suns. We had no advantage against last years Preliminary Finalists playing the Eagles/Pies at home & GWS/Tigers away.

So far as maintaining it, I think they can. The hardest it could possibly get is if the Lions draw GWS twice, Richmond twice, Geelong twice, Collingwood twice Eagles twice & Gold Coast twice. Conservatively 5 wins I'd say. The other 12 games ought see the Lions winning at least 5 of 6 remaining home games & 3 of 6 of the other away games. That's at the very least 13 wins for next year for the Lions imo. The list has a lot of upside & will make for an even stronger team next season. Pre-fixture prediction 15-18 wins.

Your 5-8 rating for this year is fair. After our straight sets exit, we did actually finish 5th for draft purposes I believe. I'd say we were 5th or 6th in the pecking order this year.
 
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The Lions draw was interesting. I wouldn't call it soft. The teams we drew twice were Hawks (Top 4 H&A), Dogs, Port, North & Suns. We had no advantage against last years Preliminary Finalists playing the Eagles/Pies at home & GWS/Tigers away.

So far as maintaining it, I think they can. The hardest it could possibly get is if the Lions draw GWS twice, Richmond twice, Geelong twice, Collingwood twice Eagles twice & Gold Coast twice. Conservatively 5 wins I'd say. The other 12 games ought see the Lions winning at least 5 of 6 remaining home games & 3 of 6 of the other away games. That's at the very least 13 wins for next year for the Lions imo. The list has a lot of upside & will make for an even stronger team next season. Pre-fixture prediction 15-18 wins.

Your 5-8 rating for this year is fair. After our straight sets exit, we did actually finish 5th for draft purposes I believe. I'd say we were 5th or 6th in the pecking order this year.

They key thing is getting your s**t together so you become a destination club and then it rolls from there as well. Hodge was an inspired get. Players will want to come to you now. I like what you’re doing.
 

carnaroys08

Cancelled
Sep 4, 2007
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Cowboys, Storm.
BIRDBRAIN said:
The draw really does interfere with the natural order of things. You get a soft draw you go up the ladder like Brisbane, punching above your weight, but then you get punished with the draft picks you get, you get a tough draw the next year and down the ladder again you go, just like Melbourne did.

Yep, correct. And that’s how i’m really answering the OP i guess.

captain blood 17 , I'd say you agreeing with BIRDBRAINS statement in it's entirety is an example of "Blond with lots of cleavage bias" stemming from BIRDBRAINS current profile picture. Surely you don't really believe the Lions could possibly do a Melbourne slide? Melbourne had a problem beating top 8 sides remember. In the H&A season, the Lions beat top 8 sides the Eagles, Dogs, Cats at the Gabba & GWS away. The Finalists we lost to were Footscray(A) Essendon(A) & the Pies(H). Predicting the Lions could slide like Melbourne is ignoring this evidence due to focusing too much on the profile picture of the poster I believe. I wouldn't feel silly or anything If I were you captain. This phenomena of "Blonde with lots of cleavage bias" is known to occur frequently in men, even those with high levels of intelligence are not immune.
 
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carnaroys08

Cancelled
Sep 4, 2007
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AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
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Cowboys, Storm.
Injuries were more of a factor to Brisbane's success this year. They didn't have a best 22 player miss major time pretty much all year and picked pretty much the same team for a lot of the season and in the run in to finals. That's how you get on a roll of positive performances.
Brisbane's Injury Prevention Team has been recognised for being the best in the League for a couple of years now. Brisbane have demonstrated that injuries can not entirely be put down to luck & having the best prevention programme is highly beneficial.
 
Sep 22, 2011
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Well there ya go, didn’t happen for 40 years and now it’s happened two years in a row.

- Two straight top 2 finishes for Brisbane without a GF

- 1 and 2 both hosted preliminary finals and both lost

Wonder if there’s something in the pre-finals bye being a disadvantage for the Qualifying Final winners. One game in three weeks not ideal you’d think.
 
Aug 15, 2015
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Well there ya go, didn’t happen for 40 years and now it’s happened two years in a row.

- Two straight top 2 finishes for Brisbane without a GF

- 1 and 2 both hosted preliminary finals and both lost

Wonder if there’s something in the pre-finals bye being a disadvantage for the Qualifying Final winners. One game in three weeks not ideal you’d think.

Another outstanding innovation by Gillon.

Aside from the lack of match practice for teams winning the QF, it absolutely sucks the momentum and excitement of the season out. All of a sudden there is a week with no footy. I don't bother consuming any football media since there are no games to talk about.
 
If Tigers didn’t have to contend with the injury issues in the first half of the year, I doubt one of those teams would of been top 2. I would question the near miss. One of them should never have been top 2.
Of course......
 
Jul 11, 2005
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Geelong
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Another outstanding innovation by Gillon.

Aside from the lack of match practice for teams winning the QF, it absolutely sucks the momentum and excitement of the season out. All of a sudden there is a week with no footy. I don't bother consuming any football media since there are no games to talk about.
Pre Finals bye was completely not required in a shortened season where teams got a bye during it.

AFL should cap the season at 20 matches, and scrap the pre-finals bye.
 

Ron The Bear

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36 teams have won grand finals after playing two games in the previous four weeks when their opponent had at least one extra game. Seems a bit of a cop-out to suggest it's stopping teams from winning prelims. Maybe their preparation is off in some way.
 
Good win last night. Bears got a righteous smacking.


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Given our recent rivalry I genuinely hope the GF is close and goes down as one of the greatest.....with a Cats win😉
 
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