Geelong & Brisbane - a very rare miss

[Ricky Vaughn]

The draw didn’t inflate our position, we’re just a s**t Finals side

 

[Crankyhawk]

That might explain one. Yet not even one of them made the GF. That’s very rare - hasn’t happened in 40 years.

The final 5 system made it very rare for both top 2 to miss. 3rd would need to beat 2nd then 1st the next week, 2nd would need to go out in straight sets and 1st loses the prelim.
Can’t remember much about final 6.

 

[Forward Press]

A thread not about Richmond gets turned into a 'look at how good Richmond is' thread by Richmond supporters.

Just another day on the BigFooty main board.

 

[Grockadoc]

That might explain one. Yet not even one of them made the GF. That’s very rare - hasn’t happened in 40 years.

Geelong's early form was overhyped. They banked early wins and crumbled after the bye.

Brisbane were running high on emotion with a young list. The season was bound to take a toll sooner or later.

Can see why it happened. Still an amazing stat.

Also, Geelong's lead of 21 points at half time is the highest margin at half time in a game they have lost since 1930.

 

[Forward Press]

Also, Geelong's lead of 21 points at half time is the highest margin at half time in a game they have lost since 1930.

That stat isn't even remotely true. The legendary comeback game in 2006 by us at Kardinia Park sprung immediately to mind, I am sure there are many other examples since 1930.

 

[My Tilly]

That stat isn't even remotely true. The legendary comeback game in 2006 by us at Kardinia Park sprung immediately to mind, I am sure there are many other examples since 1930.

Round 6, 1989 is another infamous game where we held a 49 point lead and lost the game.

 

[Grockadoc]

That stat isn't even remotely true. The legendary comeback game in 2006 by us at Kardinia Park sprung immediately to mind, I am sure there are many other examples since 1930.

Woops, forgot the bit about it being in a final.

Bruce mentioned it on the telecast at half time. He said something along the lines of it will be the greatest margin for a team to come back from at half time against Geelong in a final since 1930.

 

[Dan26]

The match-up this year between 3 v 6 is, I think, the lowest in the VFL/AFL's 123 year history (i.e it adds up to 9)

In 2016, it was 1 v 7 (eight) and in 1980 it was 3 v 5 (also eight)

1999 was 2 v 6 as well (also eight)

Unless someone else can come up with another year I have missed I think 3v6 is the lowest ranked Grand Final in history.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Unless someone else can come up with another year I have missed I think 3v6 is the lowest ranked Grand Final in history.

I love this stat.

I also love this stat because it shows how injury can affect a contender. Richmond have been the best side over the past 3 seasons and with a full side for the entirety of 2019 probably win the minor premiership.
GWS have the most talented list in the comp on paper and won a prelim without arguably their 3 best players. A full season of injury free football and i'd say we have ended up with the two best teams in the grand final. Hopefully plays out this way.

 

[Forward Press]

I love this stat.

I also love this stat because it shows how injury can affect a contender. Richmond have been the best side over the past 3 seasons and with a full side for the entirety of 2019 probably win the minor premiership.
GWS have the most talented list in the comp on paper and won a prelim without arguably their 3 best players. A full season of injury free football and i'd say we have ended up with the two best teams in the grand final. Hopefully plays out this way.

Yes, don't think you'll find many disputing that Richmond and GWS were amongst the top handful of teams this year and both certainly deserve a flag whoever wins on Saturday.

Also demonstrates that finals are another kettle of fish - what happened in Round 3 or whatever matters little now for the two Grand Final teams. Completely different form lines and team compositions.

 

[Americanpies]

Geelong's early form was overhyped. They banked early wins and crumbled after the bye.

Brisbane were running high on emotion with a young list. The season was bound to take a toll sooner or later.

Can see why it happened. Still an amazing stat.

Also, Geelong's lead of 21 points at half time is the highest margin at half time in a game they have lost since 1930.

where have you pulled this stat from?

2006 Round 10 v Geelong, Skilled Stadium
When a team is down by 54 points late in the third quarter, most people would accept that the match is all but over – not the Eagles.

In one of the greatest fightbacks in history, the Eagles never gave up hope of triumphing to eventually run out three-point winners.

Daniel Kerr and Ben Cousins were instrumental in cutting down Geelong’s lead while utility Adam Hunter made amends for his poor first half with two important goals in the final term.

Geelong coach Mark Thompson described the match as “pretty tragic” from his perspective as the Cats added another entry to their growing list of unlosable games.

And to show that it wasn’t a fluke, the Eagles recorded another remarkable comeback win over Carlton the following week after trailing by as much as 44 points in the third quarter.

 

[master bate]

Yeah, it is an unusual stat. I guess it brings into question the weighted draw system. Take Melbourne for example. Blinder last season, terrible this season, do they get a softer draw, will it assist them getting back up the ladder next year.
Brisbane had a soft draw. Can they maintain it? I think they really were a 5-8 list. Not a top 4 list yet.

The draw is overrated. You play 5 teams twice. The difference between a top teams draw and a bottom teams draw can be 1 extra finalist. Yes Melbourne played Coll, Rich and WCE twice which were tough but they also go St Kilda and Sydney, if the dees weren't rubbish this year they could've gone 2/5 in the double ups pretty easily based on the ladder.

When and where you play teams makes more of a difference I think. Some teams avoid Geelong and Tassie, some teams seem to get the luck on who's suspended and who's injured. In game injuries etc.

Injuries were more of a factor to Brisbane's success this year. They didn't have a best 22 player miss major time pretty much all year and picked pretty much the same team for a lot of the season and in the run in to finals. That's how you get on a roll of positive performances.

I think their midfield is close to top 4 already, good ruck, 2.5 stars, quality on both wings, lots of rotation pieces. But they need to replace Hodge and go a step up down back and their forward line is just too early to tell with some of the younger players. The most important thing they did is re-establish the Gabba as a fortress and place to go watch footy, they'll make finals for sure next year if they keep that place rocking.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Must admit its not super surprising. Geelong dominated the first half of the season then limped into finals. Aging list caught up with them. Able to play at a very high level for part of a season but then the grind of the long AFL season eventually becomes too much. Remind me of North a few years back when they started off incredibly well (a bit more talented though) but then struggled).

Brisbane honestly fluked their H&A position. Nothing against Brisbane but they had a golden run of injuries and fixture not to mention doing super well in getting over the line in close games. Wasn't surprised they got found out against the better teams in finals given their youth and inexperience. Not that they were a bad team but I think with a more normal run of injuries and a more challenging draw they would have lost a few more games.

Both teams probably were more like 4-6th type quality but it just worked out they finished 1 and 2 in H&A.

Brisbane did get lucky but that doesn't detract from their immense improvement, which is no fluke. I predicted them to finish about 7-10, but even 4-6 would've been impressive.

4-7 is my prediction for next season.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I love this stat.

I also love this stat because it shows how injury can affect a contender. Richmond have been the best side over the past 3 seasons and with a full side for the entirety of 2019 probably win the minor premiership.
GWS have the most talented list in the comp on paper and won a prelim without arguably their 3 best players. A full season of injury free football and i'd say we have ended up with the two best teams in the grand final. Hopefully plays out this way.

It doesn’t at all, really.

Injuries happen every year. In 123 years I’m sure there’s been many contenders with worse injury runs than Richmond.

It is truly bloody unique this year.

People seem to be struggling with it a little, they’re citing factors that happen basically every year to justify something that happens very, very rarely.

The thread’s been made about Richmond, but it’s not really about them at all. It’s not the slightest bit remarkable for a third-place side to make the GF.

What is exceedingly rare is for both 1st and 2nd to miss. Brisbane and Geelong, a very rare combination in the top two.

 

[HTT]

And what’s amazing is neither team was overly poor in September either, it wasn’t some monumental choke. Geelong were very disappointing in week 1 but stepped up after that, while the Lions had opportunities in both games.
Overall just a very even season, and the two best performed teams in September have made the GF.

 

[Grockadoc]

where have you pulled this stat from?

2006 Round 10 v Geelong, Skilled Stadium
When a team is down by 54 points late in the third quarter, most people would accept that the match is all but over – not the Eagles.

In one of the greatest fightbacks in history, the Eagles never gave up hope of triumphing to eventually run out three-point winners.

Daniel Kerr and Ben Cousins were instrumental in cutting down Geelong’s lead while utility Adam Hunter made amends for his poor first half with two important goals in the final term.

Geelong coach Mark Thompson described the match as “pretty tragic” from his perspective as the Cats added another entry to their growing list of unlosable games.

And to show that it wasn’t a fluke, the Eagles recorded another remarkable comeback win over Carlton the following week after trailing by as much as 44 points in the third quarter.

As I said in this thread, I forgot to add in the finals caveat. It was in reference to finals only. And it was mentioned by Bruce on the broadcast.

 

[Americanpies]

As I said in this thread, I forgot to add in the finals caveat. It was in reference to finals only. And it was mentioned by Bruce on the broadcast.

oh fair enough. Sorry. It's just I remembered hearing that 54 point comeback on the radio. One of the greatest comebacks of all time. Cousins went off.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

The thread’s been made about Richmond, but it’s not really about them at all. It’s not the slightest bit remarkable for a third-place side to make the GF.

No, it's all about Richmond.....

 

[BF Tiger]

I love this stat.

I also love this stat because it shows how injury can affect a contender. Richmond have been the best side over the past 3 seasons and with a full side for the entirety of 2019 probably win the minor premiership.
GWS have the most talented list in the comp on paper and won a prelim without arguably their 3 best players. A full season of injury free football and i'd say we have ended up with the two best teams in the grand final. Hopefully plays out this way.

Something Richmond seemingly never did was really go for the kill when we had our foot on the throat of a few sides this season. If we'd kicked six more goals and stopped six goals being scored against us across the 22 games then we would have had a percentage that landed us in second spot. Geez, we possibly could've beaten the Suns by an extra six goals alone.

 

[kickazz]

6 losses is high for a minor premier, would be interesting to see how the numbers stack up when this is factored in.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I honestly believe that if all the players in AFL are restored to 100% health then we have the best 2 teams in this years grand final.

Hard to argue, I’d agree.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Incredibly unlucky that we faced the two eventual Grand Finalists.
Having been in a position to win both games, I'm quietly confident that we won't do a 'Melbourne' next season.

Quite hilarious that people still go on about the soft draw when our fixture was judged the 9th hardest at the start of the year, which for a bottom 4 team, is rare.

Most just parrot the soft draw bit without a clue of what they are talking about.

Had those two teams covered in terms of pure talent but the lack of experience and young tired bodies was too much to overcome at this stage. Still kick straight V the Tigers and we win.

 

[JEagle]

Lack of experience got Brisbane. Peaking at the wrong time got Geelong. Last year WCE won because our form line more or less peaked at the back end of the season. This is what Richmond has done this year.

I never get carried away when a team like Geelong shoots out of the gates. Invariably there is a form slump that follows, and it's usually right before finals.

 

[Craze]

That result in 1980 was a bit of an anomaly.

Richmond lost it's last H&A game at the Lakeside Oval against South Melbourne (a very windy afternoon IIRC), falling from 1st to 3rd. Richmond's percentage was still a standout - 138.4 (both Geelong and Carlton were low 120's).

Reigning premier Carlton had had a good (but not great) H&A season, and there was factional infighting at the club from memory with Wow Jones taking over as coach from Jezza. They were so chick full f talent that they were always going to finish top-3, but I think the poor preparation affected their finals performances (out in straight sets).

Geelong were probably the 2nd best team in it that year (with all due respect to Collingwood). They had beaten Richmond at the MCG earlier in the year, and got within 4 goals of Richmond in the Qualifying Final. Bill Goggin said after the GF that he thought Geelong would have got a lot closer than Collingwood, and he's probably right.

 

[saints_333]

lets not forget that Hawthorn won their finals from lower down in the top 4. Final places mean nothing. Imo as long as you finish in at least the top 3 then you can win the flag which Richmond has done (if they win it). The win % from there down drops dramatically.