Geelong Cats 2021-2022; moneyball edition

[Chinacats]

This approach gives us a shot at a flag. That’s the position you want your club to be in. I still want to see the likes of Clarke, Simpson, narkle , de koning push through into the team.

 

[Cursed Cat]

My take on Smith and Higgins is we manage them to play 15-17 games each next year, and use the other games for the fringe players, so we have the team cherry ripe for the finals, with more experience into the younger players as well.

Is this a reasonable concept?

What if the fringe players prove their worth to the best 22?

Do they inevitably make way for more experienced players come finals?

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

What if the fringe players prove their worth to the best 22?

Do they inevitably make way for more experienced players come finals?

They shouldn't. If the fringe players are performing better come finals they should keep their spot, just like this year where Simpson played finals and Steven didn't.

Really hoping there are a few more kids ready to take their chances and demand selection in 2021. Clark is the main one I want to see do it.

 

[Cronin]

Flag or nothing, end of story.

No pressure

 

[CabWesty]

What if the fringe players prove their worth to the best 22?

Do they inevitably make way for more experienced players come finals?

Nope, if the fringe guy makes the position their own, they get the position. We want to have as many guys as possible to be match fit for the finals, and maximise the standard of our bottom 6.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What if the fringe players prove their worth to the best 22?

Do they inevitably make way for more experienced players come finals?

You select the team on form come finals.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I'm not pleased to see Shaun leave his spiritual home, nor am I a fan of your clubs Russian Roulette approach to list management, but I have to concede that if Higgins & Smith had played the attacking forward of centre midfield role for Geelong this year, then the cats would have taken home the flag.

If a club is attempting to go all in with its chip stack in order to obtain an immediate premiership, then this years trade period was the perfect call.

If the game does return to normal venue fixturing, then Geelong are now far better served in covering their outside pace weakness on the bigger, quicker grounds.

 

[Turbocat]

I'm not pleased to see Shaun leave his spiritual home, nor am I a fan of your clubs Russian Roulette approach to list management, but I have to concede that if Higgins & Smith had played the attacking forward of centre midfield role for Geelong this year, then the cats would have taken home the flag.

If a club is attempting to go all in with its chip stack in order to obtain an immediate premiership, then this years trade period was the perfect call.

If the game does return to normal venue fixturing, then Geelong are now far better served in covering their outside pace weakness on the bigger, quicker grounds.

We will see I guess.... what do you guys plan to do with the P30 Higgins cost us? Use it or trade up

 

[Snake_Baker]

We will see I guess.... what do you guys plan to do with the P30 Higgins cost us? Use it or trade up

A project ruckmen I suspect.

Max Heath or Shannon Neale.

 

[Nickoo]

I think there is a good chance 4 of those players will be gone at the end of next season if your list is accurate, and only 1 of them do I think will be best 22 next year.

I think speculating further than that is fairly pointless because you don't know how much of a drop off there might be in a players performance(or not, see Hawkins this year) in the year to come.

The guys whose contracts end in 2022 might do plenty to go around again.

Which ones?


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[Turbocat]

We've got Cameron sewn up for 5 years, and he has been reasonably durable for sure - he won't be asked to bash and crash too much at Geelong.
Hopefully he can sustain quality output until he is 32; it's not an outrageous expectation.

The other two trade-ins are a bit ''iffy'' though I reckon - Higgins will start next season as a 33 year old and history shows that wear and tear accumulates on even the best of 'em.
He and Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

will need to be monitored and managed as shrewdly as possible.

It will be an unusually mature squad next year, the key will be getting some young fresh legs in their to balance things out; I know we already have a few solid best 22 younger players but imo we need at least a couple more to step up next year too - Frankie Evans might be among the likely; DeKoning will be itching for a game or 3.

Trying to forecast sides too far ahead has probably never been harder.. player can come in or go out quickly. I have fro years maintained its almost pointless expecting an excact prediction. One only hs to go back 4 years .. and lets see if you predicted our 2021 side. ... but here gos..

If we assume the worst happens , that all bar the bold above are done by 2022. what does 2023 look like. I have not counted players who have not debuted..bar Stephens and SDek, have allowed for losing Kolo and Menegola to FA. Narkle may have gone.(if not him someone else) Dahl gone

Considering the competition is so strong its hard to imagine that the side I project will be a top side but I doubt it will be a cellar dweller.
I think we need to find at least 2 quality mids , probably another KPP or two.. and a ruck.

Depending on players we lose, one can probably project .. that Smith will not be the last FA that we try to add. Id expect us to be looking at players that are available ..most side will look at Merrit ..Id say we would too if he likes us. Would we look at Crouchs brother? Certainly we would enquire about Kelly if he wants to depart our friend at GWS , I wonder if we are still competitive would we enquire about Gawn ... if not we need to find more ruck talent.

Next year "atm" ..we have 4 strong picks. Do we draft or use them in trade?

If the right younish in the comp player come available , that may shorten development time..ie Flanders ..i'm sure their would be others. If we lose Menegola & Kolo next year as FA ..it complicated chasing Free Agents. So maybe then we go super hard at draft and one or two trades next year rather than FA's..if they do leave.

Although I have not given any credit to them ... there are players on our list that could easily become players.

So my assessment is ... The much stated chips all in , crash and burn etc ..is a chance but its not as ensured as somethink. What more likely to happen is we ease from being in the top line of a premiership threat to the middle group of 6 teams. If we can somewhere find a couple of bonus kids .. the crash can easily not happen .


2023
Bews , Blitz , Stewart
Clark , SDek , MOC
Parfitt , ,Simpson
Miers , Cameron , Duncan
Close , Dangerfield,
Fort , Guthrie ,
Henry, Stephens, ,

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Trying to forecast sides too far ahead has probably never been harder.. player can come in or go out quickly. I have fro years maintained its almost pointless expecting an excact prediction. One only hs to go back 4 years .. and lets see if you predicted our 2021 side. ... but here gos..

If we assume the worst happens , that all bar the bold above are done by 2022. what does 2023 look like. I have not counted players who have not debuted..bar Stephens and SDek, have allowed for losing Kolo and Menegola to FA. Narkle may have gone.(if not him someone else) Dahl gone

Considering the competition is so strong its hard to imagine that the side I project will be a top side but I doubt it will be a cellar dweller.
I think we need to find at least 2 quality mids , probably another KPP or two.. and a ruck.

Depending on players we lose, one can probably project .. that Smith will not be the last FA that we try to add. Id expect us to be looking at players that are available ..most side will look at Merrit ..Id say we would too if he likes us. Would we look at Crouchs brother? Certainly we would enquire about Kelly if he wants to depart our friend at GWS , I wonder if we are still competitive would we enquire about Gawn ... if not we need to find more ruck talent.

Next year "atm" ..we have 4 strong picks. Do we draft or use them in trade?

If the right younish in the comp player come available , that may shorten development time..ie Flanders ..i'm sure their would be others. If we lose Menegola & Kolo next year as FA ..it complicated chasing Free Agents. So maybe then we go super hard at draft and one or two trades next year rather than FA's..if they do leave.

Although I have not given any credit to them ... there are players on our list that could easily become players.

So my assessment is ... The much stated chips all in , crash and burn etc ..is a chance but its not as ensured as somethink. What more likely to happen is we ease from being in the top line of a premiership threat to the middle group of 6 teams. If we can somewhere find a couple of bonus kids .. the crash can easily not happen .


2023
Bews , Blitz , Stewart
Clark , SDek , MOC
Parfitt , ,Simpson
Miers , Cameron , Duncan
Close , Dangerfield,
Fort , Guthrie ,
Henry, Stephens, ,

Find 5 players by 2023? I could live with that.

If we don't play Clark this year though he's gone i think. I also think he's arguably the best kick in the side.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If we want to seriously moneyball 2021 we will need to go in with some list spots available so that we can pick up some kids in the mid-season drafts.

Going to be hard to get past the Jack Higgins effect in assessing these kids though when many of the overagers aren't in school and are just hitting the gym and training with maybe a part time job on the side.

I'd still advocate keeping a spot open in case a Riccardi or Pickett starts to become apparent. Maybe 2 spots

 

[Turbocat]

Find 5 players by 2023? I could live with that.

If we don't play Clark this year though he's gone i think. I also think he's arguably the best kick in the side.

plus or minus a couple I guess. If Clark goes ..and some one else goes early ... but my point is ..its constant theme that we are at the edge of a cliff with the line fraying .. Simpson is an example of how a player can present. Would it really be that much a of s surprise if one or two names already on our list step up...and I think I have been reasonably negative , one or two of the older players will probably hang in there longer than anticipated.

but yes .. they key to it is find a way to get games into Clark, Stephens , SDek and one or two others. Tarheny was higly rated and Evans looked very hopeful in the scratch matches

 

[GoGeta]

If we win a flag it’s worth it. If we don’t the plan has failed. Gotta go for it! I worry hub games flattered us. Can these 30+ players take us all the way? Need to manage them very well during the season so they’re fresh at the end.

I agree, I think people are overlooking the impact of hub/shortened game times on our team.

 

[you pick one]

plus or minus a couple I guess. If Clark goes ..and some one else goes early ... but my point is ..its constant theme that we are at the edge of a cliff with the line fraying .. Simpson is an example of how a player can present. Would it really be that much a of s surprise if one or two names already on our list step...and I think I have been reasonably negative , one or two of th eolder players will probably hang in there longer than anticipated.

but yes .. they key to it is find a way to get games into Clark, Stephens , SDek and one or two others. Tarheny was higly rated and Evans looked very hopeful in the scratch matches

That would also have been in the Cats equation when deciding on doing the deal for Cameron now and going harder in the draft next year,we have a few to have a look at don't we.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

plus or minus a couple I guess. If Clark goes ..and some one else goes early ... but my point is ..its constant theme that we are at the edge of a cliff with the line fraying .. Simpson is an example of how a player can present. Would it really be that much a of s surprise if one or two names already on our list step...and I think I have been reasonably negative , one or two of th eolder players will probably hang in there longer than anticipated.

but yes .. they key to it is find a way to get games into Clark, Stephens , SDek and one or two others. Tarheny was higly rated and Evans looked very hopeful in the scratch matches

Agree. 1 year is a long term outlook in footy, and we have a reasonably set 2 year list