Review Geelong defeats GCS by 34 points. Rd 10, 2021

[David the Cat]

Mark Twain....come on down....because when I read that Kolo was so great, for some reason you jumped into my mind.

 

[Seeds]

This is the best stat discussion we have had in a while.

 

[DanA]

The gymnastics is the fact that it requires ignoring the most obvious explanation: that in reasonable sample sizes the best one on one defenders will score highly on this measure. To tell a story otherwise requires a set of unlikely theories that magically happen to improve only Kolodjashnij’s performance and confirm the bias of those that don’t rate him.

Okay, so how do Darcy Moore, Harris Andrew, Mitch McGovern and Hurley score?

 

[thejester]

Okay, so how do Darcy Moore, Harris Andrew, Mitch McGovern and Hurley score?

Not sure this is the slam dunk you think it is.

 

[Cataholic]

Just looking at it from another angle

Who actually does collect all these stats, and how is their accuracy ensured?

 

[Seeds]

so going by those stats here is the clangers per 1000 metres gained.

henderson 5.8
stewart 4.7
henry 4.8
kolo 17.0

and there you go. Kolo is by far the most error prone disposer of the four when you factor in variations in disposal per game and a measure of the degree of difficulty. Around 4 times worse then henry and Stewart and 3 times worse then henderson.

 

[catempire]

Okay, so how do Darcy Moore, Harris Andrew, Mitch McGovern and Hurley score?

You still seem to be missing the point. Why would I want to pull out isolated examples when there’s a clear and compelling story from a large and comprehensive data set?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

So your changing your story. There aren’t any 10-12 disposal games with poor defensive pressure.

he has only played four full games this year. And in all but one he has been given less then 63 percent game time. with more normal game time he would of reached 20 disposals in other games too.

im Not changing any story and I’m not anti narkle so I don’t really have some anti stance or really care much about trying to disprove anything. I don’t have a stat for his defensive efforts and either do you. It’s more observational. He didn’t do too bad on the weekend in this regard and played a great game.

you seem to think it’s controversial pointing out his not a lock because he played one good game. If he plays like he did in his other games for the season he will be dropped once we have a fit team

 

[DanA]

You still seem to be missing the point. Why would I want to pull out isolated examples when there’s a clear and compelling story from a large and comprehensive data set?

Because one stat doesn’t provide compelling evidence, it’s just a stat and needs contexts and support.

 

[catempire]

Because one stat doesn’t provide compelling evidence, it’s just a stat and needs contexts and support.

It’s extremely compelling because it measures directly what we are interested in and filters out noise (such as how often they are put in the position of defending). If you started from first principles and asked: “how could we measure how good defenders are” you’d go straight to asking how often they get beaten and this stat does exactly that.

 

[Spazz Cat]

so going by those stats here is the clangers per 1000 metres gained.

henderson 5.8
stewart 4.7
henry 4.8
kolo 17.0

and there you go. Kolo is by far the most error prone disposer of the four when you factor in variations in disposal per game and a measure of the degree of difficulty. Around 4 times worse then henry and Stewart and 3 times worse then henderson.

s**t! Considering 50%+ of our defenders kicks are sideways and backwards that seems like a lot.
Do you have Blitz's one?

 

[bombersboy]

Geelong v Gold Coast
10 Joel Selwood (GEEL)
7 Tom Stewart (GEEL)
4 Sam Menegola (GEEL)
3 Quinton Narkle (GEEL)
3 Touk Miller (GCFC)
3 Mark Blicavs (GEEL)

Joel putting in another fine performance

I don't understand how Menegola has more votes than Narkle. I thought he butchered the ball in the first half.

 

[DanA]

It’s extremely compelling because it measures directly what we are interested in and filters out noise (such as how often they are put in the position of defending). If you started from first principles and asked: “how could we measure how good defenders are” you’d go straight to asking how often they get beaten and this stat does exactly that.

All good. Difference of opinion here but I think we’ve both made our points now.

 

[Down at K Park]

 

[Down at K Park]

Did anyone even slightly imply that?
I'm pretty sure the stats brought up were to support the opinion that he's an ok player... you know... which he is.

Did you even read the previous few pages? Plenty implied he was and tried defending him as being one of, if not our best defender.

An ok player yes. But that’s about it.

 

[DanA]

sh*t! Considering 50%+ of our defenders kicks are sideways and backwards that seems like a lot.
Do you have Blitz's one?

In fairness, if Stewart takes four kick ins and Henderson takes two that’s probably 300m and 100m respectively.

 

[year of the cat]

so going by those stats here is the clangers per 1000 metres gained.

henderson 5.8
stewart 4.7
henry 4.8
kolo 17.0

and there you go. Kolo is by far the most error prone disposer of the four when you factor in variations in disposal per game and a measure of the degree of difficulty. Around 4 times worse then henry and Stewart and 3 times worse then henderson.

If true it’s a damning stat. I think most of us in the “Kolo needs to be crucified Camp” can concede that his actual defending is ok. He can quite effective at taking an intercept mark when in form, is capable of playing on smaller types than himself (I don’t think aside from Riewoldt who he owns that talls are his go) - it’s his use of the footy when it’s in his hands that completely lets him down. He would probably be better advised to just kick “long, down the line” because his short kicking is terrible.

 

[Spazz Cat]

In fairness, if Stewart takes four kick ins and Henderson takes two that’s probably 300m and 100m respectively.

Yeah. Good call
Could also mean he doesn't pad stats as much as the blokes.

 

[frggr]

Interesting. But I’ll count it as yet another reason to drop him. We are old enough without having guys that look older than they are.

Get him some hair in a can

 

[frggr]

so going by those stats here is the clangers per 1000 metres gained.

henderson 5.8
stewart 4.7
henry 4.8
kolo 17.0

and there you go. Kolo is by far the most error prone disposer of the four when you factor in variations in disposal per game and a measure of the degree of difficulty. Around 4 times worse then henry and Stewart and 3 times worse then henderson.

That's um....concerning :/

 

[catempire]

so going by those stats here is the clangers per 1000 metres gained.

henderson 5.8
stewart 4.7
henry 4.8
kolo 17.0

and there you go. Kolo is by far the most error prone disposer of the four when you factor in variations in disposal per game and a measure of the degree of difficulty. Around 4 times worse then henry and Stewart and 3 times worse then henderson.

What on earth is clangers per 1000 metres gained purporting to show? Might as well do clangers per millimetres of shoe size.

 

[frggr]

What on earth is clangers per 1000 metres gained purporting to show? Might as well do clangers per millimetres of shoe size.

In theory, doesn't it show that his attempts to get the ball moving forward are more susceptible to errors than the attempts of his peers? eg he's getting caught HTB more often, OOF (the Bews Special), turning over the ball more often with kicks or ineffective handballs etc?

His secondary role, apart from stopping his opponent, is getting the ball moving toward his team's attacking end, after all.

 

[catempire]

In theory, doesn't it show that his attempts to get the ball moving forward are more susceptible to errors than his peers? eg he's getting caught HTB more often, OOF (the Bews Special), turning over the ball more often etc?

That would be clangers per possession wouldn’t it?

 

[Lana]

That would be clangers per possession wouldn’t it?

Less likely to * up a 20 metre kick backward than a 35 metre kick forward. Can see some value in looking at Metres gained per turnover

 

[year of the cat]

What on earth is clangers per 1000 metres gained purporting to show? Might as well do clangers per millimetres of shoe size.

It would be a reasonable measure of his overall effectiveness in having an offensive side to his game. If you agree that “metres gained” is an indicator of offensive ability when in possession, then that stat would indicate that we don’t move towards our forwards very far before Kolo gives it back to the opposition.

It’s a stat that tells a story about Kolo without telling the whole story.