Autopsy Geelong lose to Port by 11 points

Max Milburn

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Freo in 2015 was the last team that had a record of 11-2 or better. They were 12-1 and 137.8.

Before that Port in 2014 was 11-2 and 148.5, Hawthorn in 2013 were 12-1 and 145, Geelong in 2013 were 11-2 and 128.9, Collingwood in 2012 were 11-2 and 124.2, Geelong in 2011 were 13-0 and 145.1, Geelong in 2009 were 13-0 and 149.7.

The one team that fits most closely with your “true” 11-2 description is Collingwood in 2011 who were 12-1 and 169.7. But as the numbers show, that was an outlier among 11-2, 12-1 and 13-0 teams and no 11-2 team in recent history has done significantly better than Geelong in 2019.

Saints in 2009 were 13-0 and 177.5 which is the highest I can find on a quick search.
Well I'll be fact.
 

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Nickoo

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The percentage of 146 is healthy, but it actually tells a little bit of a story, I think.
My recollection is that teams with an 11-2 record or similar would normally have a significantly higher percentage, c.160-170%.
Which indicates what I've said elsewhere, that we have been consistent, but we have also been less dominant than you would expect from a "true 11-2 team".
Debating the truth of an 11-2 team is interesting. I think it highlights how hard it is to do these days as compared to the past when there were ‘truer’ 11-2’s! And high scores in the past were much more common leading to higher percentage wins if a team gets on top.


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Nickoo

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No, because it happened directly after a bye. If we had put forward 2 or 3 sub-par performances between now and the end of the h&a I wouldn't be concerned. We can win every game for the rest of the h&a season but to win it, we've got to get over the pre-finals bye and potentially a bye prior to a prelim.

Some used the word either in this thread or another, the post bye malaise which is about apt.
It happened in 2007 as well....PF.


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Hello Kitty

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Herne Hill Hammer

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It happened in 2007 as well....PF.


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Yep. If it wasn't for Ablett and Ottens Geelong wouldn't have even made the gf which is incredible to think about considering they won the thing by 20 goals.

I saw Bomba speak about it a few years ago and he said he hated byes because he really struggled to get the side going again afterwards.
 

FredLeDeux

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Freo in 2015 was the last team that had a record of 11-2 or better. They were 12-1 and 137.8.

Before that Port in 2014 was 11-2 and 148.5, Hawthorn in 2013 were 12-1 and 145, Geelong in 2013 were 11-2 and 128.9, Collingwood in 2012 were 11-2 and 124.2, Geelong in 2011 were 13-0 and 145.1, Geelong in 2009 were 13-0 and 149.7.

The one team that fits most closely with your “true” 11-2 description is Collingwood in 2011 who were 12-1 and 169.7. But as the numbers show, that was an outlier among 11-2, 12-1 and 13-0 teams and no 11-2 team in recent history has done significantly better than Geelong in 2019.

Saints in 2009 were 13-0 and 177.5 which is the highest I can find on a quick search.
The great tragedy of Science—the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact. Huxley
 

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Munich

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Yep. If it wasn't for Ablett and Ottens Geelong wouldn't have even made the gf which is incredible to think about considering they won the thing by 20 goals.

I saw Bomba speak about it a few years ago and he said he hated byes because he really struggled to get the side going again afterwards.
The issue is first week of finals. We're screwed unless they decide to fix whatever it is.
 

Hinkley29

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No, because it happened directly after a bye. If we had put forward 2 or 3 sub-par performances between now and the end of the h&a I wouldn't be concerned. We can win every game for the rest of the h&a season but to win it, we've got to get over the pre-finals bye and potentially a bye prior to a prelim.

Some used the word either in this thread or another, the post bye malaise which is about apt.
Are you seriously comparing a mid season bye to a week off in finals time? They are not even close to being the same thing.

Come on man
 

fpm84

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Would need to rewatch to get the wording right, but Scott alluded on AFL360 tonight that quite a few players have been sore and their workloads may not have been managed correctly during the week off.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Are you seriously comparing a mid season bye to a week off in finals time? They are not even close to being the same thing.

Come on man
Have you even been watching us for the last 9 years?

A bye / a week off, it doesn't matter what you call it are one and the same, momentum killers. Explain to me why they are different.
 

Nickoo

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Lloyd on Footy classified had the hit on Henry as a ‘brilliant piece of play’. Well that was a either a dangerous kidney thump or a push in the back. Certainly not a brilliant piece of play except that they got away with it. I cannot imagine the cats getting away with anything like that.

Hope like anything the doggies pick’em off this weekend. Boy oh boy I dislike port. Always been a sniper club but worse now.


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Cataholic

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True. Despite forensic analysis of shots for goal etc any footy watcher worth his salt would say we were clearly beaten on the day.
From where I was sitting they had 22 shots on goal to our 16.

A stat could be put forward saying their volume of shots on goal was 37.5% greater than ours. They missed some very easy shots, and the margin should've been higher, which would've more accurately reflected their dominance.

But such stats aren't necessary. As you said, we were clearly thrashed. No glasses needed to see that.
 

Hinkley29

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Have you even been watching us for the last 9 years?

A bye / a week off, it doesn't matter what you call it are one and the same, momentum killers. Explain to me why they are different.
In the game just gone, Port were playing for their season, in front of their rabid fans in their biggest game of the year. The week off allowed them to build themselves into a frenzy.

Geelong on the other hand had very little riding on the game, were travelling for just another regular mid season game. The week off in this circumstance just put us to sleep.

There is no question that that bye was an advantage for port given the circumstances.

In the finals, we will be playing at home, and will have everything on the line, as will our opponent. Both teams will be pumped up to the same extent given they will both be building to what is a massive game. The bye will likely benefit neither team. If we lose that game it will just mean that the other team is better than us, bye or no bye.

The 2 situations are not remotely comparable.
 

Wojcinski

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In the game just gone, Port were playing for their season, in front of their rabid fans in their biggest game of the year. The week off allowed them to build themselves into a frenzy.

Geelong on the other hand had very little riding on the game, were travelling for just another regular mid season game. The week off in this circumstance just put us to sleep.

There is no question that that bye was an advantage for port given the circumstances.

In the finals, we will be playing at home, and will have everything on the line, as will our opponent. Both teams will be pumped up to the same extent given they will both be building to what is a massive game. The bye will likely benefit neither team. If we lose that game it will just mean that the other team is better than us, bye or no bye.

The 2 situations are not remotely comparable.
I've made a few posts about it already this week but we're just dealing with blow in supporters who think a footy club can just win every single game they play. It is Geelong 07-11 syndrome.
 

Ricky Vaughn

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I've made a few posts about it already this week but we're just dealing with blow in supporters who think a footy club can just win every single game they play. It is Geelong 07-11 syndrome.
Disagree here.
I doubt any person posting on Bigfooty is a blow in supporter.

I've been incredibly negative about this loss purely because of what it represents.
To me, losing after the bye is a strong indicator we'll play like s**t in Finals. It has been for 6 years, I expect it will be again.
 

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