Autopsy Geelong lose to Port by 11 points

Hinkley29

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Disagree here.
I doubt any person posting on Bigfooty is a blow in supporter.

I've been incredibly negative about this loss purely because of what it represents.
To me, losing after the bye is a strong indicator we'll play like **** in Finals. It has been for 6 years, I expect it will be again.
Losing a game that had little riding on it in the middle of June is a “strong indicator that we’ll play like crap in finals”? Even though we have been clearly the best performed side in the comp this season?

Spare me.
 

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Ricky Vaughn

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Losing a game that had little riding on it in the middle of June is a “strong indicator that we’ll play like crap in finals”? Even though we have been clearly the best performed side in the comp this season?

Spare me.
Losing a game off the bye indicates Geelong haven't changed.
If Geelong haven't changed they will fail in Finals.

One loss in isolation obviously means little, but this particular loss indicates a hell of a lot about Geelong's fortunes this season.
 

Hinkley29

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Losing a game off the bye indicates Geelong haven't changed.
If Geelong haven't changed they will fail in Finals.

One loss in isolation obviously means little, but this particular loss indicates a hell of a lot about Geelong's fortunes this season.
Far out.

A superb 12 game block to start the season means nothing, but 1 meaningless game in June means we are doomed.

I know some Geelong fans love to wallow in pessimism but this almost takes the cake.
 

Ricky Vaughn

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Far out.

A superb 12 game block to start the season means nothing, but 1 meaningless game in June means we are doomed.

I know some Geelong fans love to wallow in pessimism but this almost takes the cake.
I just wish I had some evidence to support my theory.
Like our Finals performances under Scott in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 or even 2018.

Basically, this loss is the big sign that says DON'T SWIM - SHARKS at the beach, and an alarming number of Geelong supporters are saying "I know the sign's there, and for the past 6 years every time I see this sign there's been sharks, but I don't like that sign, so I'll ignore it.
 

Max Milburn

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Aug 10, 2018
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I just wish I had some evidence to support my theory.
Like our Finals performances under Scott in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 or even 2018.

Basically, this loss is the big sign that says DON'T SWIM - SHARKS at the beach, and an alarming number of Geelong supporters are saying "I know the sign's there, and for the past 6 years every time I see this sign there's been sharks, but I don't like that sign, so I'll ignore it.
It's not enough that you want to ruin our day at the footy, now we can't even enjoy a good surf.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Jun 22, 2008
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In the game just gone, Port were playing for their season, in front of their rabid fans in their biggest game of the year. The week off allowed them to build themselves into a frenzy.

Geelong on the other hand had very little riding on the game, were travelling for just another regular mid season game. The week off in this circumstance just put us to sleep.

There is no question that that bye was an advantage for port given the circumstances.

In the finals, we will be playing at home, and will have everything on the line, as will our opponent. Both teams will be pumped up to the same extent given they will both be building to what is a massive game. The bye will likely benefit neither team. If we lose that game it will just mean that the other team is better than us, bye or no bye.

The 2 situations are not remotely comparable.
How have the 3 past years gone first week of the finals coming off the bye?

Beat a Hawthorn side in 2016 that were completely cooked and only fell over the line then because Smith missed after the siren. Had another bye then got destroyed in the prelim.

2017 destroyed.

2018 destroyed.

With everything on the line as you put it, we should have smashed Hawthorn in 2016 and we didn't really give a yelp in the other 2.

I've been banging on about this for years and posting about it for years.

I don't believe that a side that has consistently been in the top 4 since 2004 can have a win loss record under one coach over an 8 1/2 year period of 72% yet in games following a bye that drops to 14.5% and there not be something wrong.

Everyone else has woken up to it now and it is being talked about on every footy program. Yet the only ones that don't think it's at least a bit unusual are right here on the Geelong boards of Big Footy.
 

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steady2

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Losing a game off the bye indicates Geelong haven't changed.
If Geelong haven't changed they will fail in Finals.

One loss in isolation obviously means little, but this particular loss indicates a hell of a lot about Geelong's fortunes this season.
In bizzarro world! It means that Geelong have not changed their inability to perform well after the mid-season bye. That is all. Your post ignores the brilliant and desperate footy by the Port team, excellent and clever coaching from Hinkley...it is all Geelong. The Cats team this year is considerably different in personnel, style and structure with a different game plan from previous years. OH the hoodoo bye...of course. Next year we need to buy hoodoo dolls, stick a few pins in, sacrifice a few chickens and pray to spirit of bye byes.
 

steady2

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I just wish I had some evidence to support my theory.
Like our Finals performances under Scott in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 or even 2018.

Basically, this loss is the big sign that says DON'T SWIM - SHARKS at the beach, and an alarming number of Geelong supporters are saying "I know the sign's there, and for the past 6 years every time I see this sign there's been sharks, but I don't like that sign, so I'll ignore it.
What theory? That losing the bye means that we are hopeless in the finals? Please present a scientific and logical argument then.
 

Ricky Vaughn

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What theory? That losing the bye means that we are hopeless in the finals? Please present a scientific and logical argument then.
"That losing the bye means..."
That's where you lost it.

Losing the bye doesn't "mean" anything, but it does indicate a few things.

I'm actually going to go into this a little bit, so for those who have already dismissed me as a crackpot, please stop reading (although you're gonna miss some good s**t).

Start with what we know about Geelong
At the most basic level, Geelong have been very good in the H&A season and terrible in Finals.
I'm not here to work out why, there's plenty of theories around it. Only in 2012 and 2016 were we beaten by a team in Finals we failed to beat in the H&A. Fremantle, Hawthorn, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne. All those sides knocked us out of Finals, after losing to us in the H&A season. A few of those sides we beat twice, many comfortably. It hasn't been a slight drop off, it been a ******* disaster.

So, after promising Home and Away Season's, we've dished up a giant turd in Finals for 6 years, so now I'm looking for things that will indicate if it will or won't happen again, because we can't actually know until Finals start.
Biggest indicator that it will, same coach and similar players. The players who've let us down in Finals are still on the list, and the main one who hasn't (Joel Selwood) is hampered by injury.

But 2019 has seen plenty of things to suggest it won't.
We haven't run into a Sydney 2016 (A side we simply can't beat)
We're still beating top sides, but not dropping our bundle against average sides
When the opposition controls the game, we are still difficult to score against.
When we control the game, we score in bunches.
(These stats support that)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-06-25/stats-files-the-afls-kings-of-momentum-revealed
Senior players are putting pressure on spots, rather than being gifted games.
Playing the MCG brilliantly

There's a lot of little, difficult to define things also
Our leaders (particularly Selwood and Dangerfield) seem far more selfless this season.
Adding new players and re-defining some roles has refreshed the group.
Structure and 1%'s seem to have been a focus right until the end. No excuse for not doing the little things or sticking to the structure regardless of the score.

While all those things are positive, the main concern I have with Geelong is how easy they've been to predict. They just run to the same patterns, season after season, which ends in Finals failure.

Geelong
Great H&A team - check
Can't win off the bye - check
Can't win finals - Unknown

I understand the people basically saying "just one loss" "can't win every game" "boys were sore" etc. but it feels like excuses we've heard before. This loss suggests to me not enough has changed to correct our abysmal Finals record.

All I'm interested in is how we'll go in Finals, and this game has reinforced my concern that not enough has changed. And as I keep ******* saying, if we haven't made enough changes, we aren't playing well in Finals.

Anyway, for reading that you get a prize.
I have nothing to offer, so get yourself an apple from your fruit basket, you've earned it.
 

Billy Bob65

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Commiserations on the loss.

Here are the midfield frequency stats from the match. If you haven't seen a previous post, this is an overall summary of how often your players were starting as one of the 5 mids at bounces.

Overall Summary - 20 Bounces

Duncan 16 (15w, 1i)
J.Selwood 16 (9i, 7w)
C.Guthrie 14 (1w)
Clark 14 wing
Kelly 13 (1w)
Dangerfield 12
Atkins 9 (2w)
Parfitt 3
Blicavs 3

Rucks:
Stanley 17
Fort 3

Centre Clearances - per Champion Data/AFL.com.au
Stanley 3
Dangerfield 2
Kelly 1
C.Guthrie 1
Ablett 1

1st Half - 10

Duncan 9 (8w, 1i)
J.Selwood 9 (6i, 3w)
Kelly 8 (7i, 1w)
C.Guthrie 7 (6i, 1w)
Clark 6 wing
Dangerfield 5
Atkins 4 (1w)
Parfitt 2

Stanley 9
Fort 1

Final Term - 5

J.Selwood 5 (3w, 2i)
Dangerfield 4
Duncan 3 wing
Clark 3 wing
Blicavs 3
C.Guthrie 2
Kelly 2
Atkins 2 (1i, 1w)
Parfitt 1

Stanley 4
Fort 1

Notes:
- Blicavs's first appearance in an analysed game since the Elimination Final against Melbourne. This was his first inside start in an analysed game since Rd 2, 2018, and most inside starts since the 2017 Prelim.
- Fewest starts and the lowest percentage of bounces attended for Kelly (65%) in an analysed game this season - 2nd lowest was Rd 2 where he attended 72% of bounces.
- Excluding the game he was injured in, this is the 2nd lowest percentage of bounces attended for Dangerfield (60%) in an analysed game this season. He attended 50% of bounces in the Rd 5 Hawthorn clash.
- Most starts for Atkins in an analysed game
- Least starts in analysed game this season for Parfitt (and that includes the game he was injured in)
 

And_ROOS

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Lloyd on Footy classified had the hit on Henry as a ‘brilliant piece of play’. Well that was a either a dangerous kidney thump or a push in the back. Certainly not a brilliant piece of play except that they got away with it. I cannot imagine the cats getting away with anything like that.

Hope like anything the doggies pick’em off this weekend. Boy oh boy I dislike port. Always been a sniper club but worse now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
If it were Ablett or Hawkins everyone would be screaming "dirty player" and "give him 4 weeks".
Then again, Lloyd is a sniper by trade so are you surprised its a brilliant piece of play to him? If Sam Mitchell had been at any other club he would be Lloyds favourite player of all time.

That hit on Henry was a massive dog act by a club that has form recruiting dog act players.
 

steady2

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"That losing the bye means..."
That's where you lost it.
No I was trying to assist you to present exactly what your theory is...it seemed that it was the statement I made since you were unable to articulate anything else.
Losing the bye doesn't "mean" anything, but it does indicate a few things.
Goody let's get to the nitty gritty.
Start with what we know about Geelong
At the most basic level, Geelong have been very good in the H&A season and terrible in Finals.
Not really. We didn't play finals in 2015 and were not very impressive last year in the H&A, no surprise we were knocked out in the first final.
...So, after promising Home and Away Season's, we've dished up a giant turd in Finals for 6 years...,
I just established that this claim is factually incorrect.
...so now I'm looking for things that will indicate if it will or won't happen again, because we can't actually know until Finals start. Biggest indicator that it will, same coach and similar players. The players who've let us down in Finals are still on the list, and the main one who hasn't (Joel Selwood) is hampered by injury.
Incorrect. Players like Murdoch, Walker, Caddy, Menzel, Gregson, Smedts, McCarthy, Lang, Thurlow, Motlop, Kersten and others are no longer with us and we have had a large turnover of retired champions. The coaching staff is quite different, although I note you only select the senior coach for targeting.
But 2019 has seen plenty of things to suggest it won't.
We haven't run into a Sydney 2016 (A side we simply can't beat)
We're still beating top sides, but not dropping our bundle against average sides
When the opposition controls the game, we are still difficult to score against.
When we control the game, we score in bunches.
(These stats support that)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-06-25/stats-files-the-afls-kings-of-momentum-revealed
Senior players are putting pressure on spots, rather than being gifted games.
Playing the MCG brilliantly
There's a lot of little, difficult to define things also
Our leaders (particularly Selwood and Dangerfield) seem far more selfless this season.
Adding new players and re-defining some roles has refreshed the group.
Structure and 1%'s seem to have been a focus right until the end. No excuse for not doing the little things or sticking to the structure regardless of the score.
Most of that is true and none of it supports your theory, which now seems to be that we are the same as the last six years.
While all those things are positive, the main concern I have with Geelong is how easy they've been to predict. They just run to the same patterns, season after season, which ends in Finals failure.
But you stated that you thought a failure in finals this year would not happen again ie; we are not running to the same pattern!!!!
Geelong
Great H&A team - check
Can't win off the bye - check
Can't win finals - Unknown
We have won finals but we have a poor record. However after proving your own theory wrong, you reiterate the illogical claim that "because we lost after the bye we will lose in the finals". You could simply have put that little checklist at the top of your post and left out the rest; you would at least be consistent, if illogical.
...All I'm interested in is how we'll go in Finals, and this game has reinforced my concern that not enough has changed. And as I keep ******* saying, if we haven't made enough changes, we aren't playing well in Finals.
What changes would you suggest? Let me guess. Sack the coach?
 

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