Autopsy Geelong loses to Dons by 34 points at MCG.

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It seems that the MC decided to punt on Smith being able to ruck for 99% of the game. He has been able to do this reasonably effectively in the past. I would assume that they thought we should be able to beat Essendon regardless of whether we lost the ruck, so they wanted to see what Smith could do in this role. It was probably a fair assumption, and I don't think they thought we would be a mile behind at half time and chasing the ball so much.
I reckon Buzza was a bit stiff to miss in Ratugolea's absence, but apart from that I can see the logic in picking another running player and having Blitz as the second ruck option.
 

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I think that's a bit of a stretch for a club which won its last flag seven years ago. Who would have played in them? Selwood in three, Ablett, Hawk and Harry in two, Duncan in one as a substitute, that's literally it. Five in twenty-two.

No - i meant purely from a supporters angle

2013 season - was the last time i got upset when or if we dropped games - because the side then was capable ( and nearly got to the GF ) of winning a premiership. Like when Bartel got in the back free - and the subsequent 50 metres to bury North on the siren - i was riding every kick in the last qtr - but i havent done that for 5 years

What Geel has done since - and done pretty well - is stayed relevent - competitive - but short of a flag winning possibly

So when they put in a shocker and get flogged - its a bit dissappointing - but you ( as a supporter ) just move onto next weeks game .
 
Sounds like he had a shocker against the bombers. Who didn’t. Other than that, he’s been a bit off the pace but has still played pretty well. Average for him is still better than most of the team. I never expected him to be the saviour, rather just needs to play a role and he can certainly do that.
Wracks up the disposals but does nowhere near the damage he used to. He can get over 30 and I would struggle to remember the majority of them.

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I think that's a bit of a stretch for a club which won its last flag seven years ago. Who would have played in them? Selwood in three, Ablett, Hawk and Harry in two, Duncan in one as a substitute, that's literally it. Five in twenty-two.

And even the harshest critics here aren't suggesting that the skipper ever plays with an air of complacency. Or Duncan for that matter, really.

So you're down to three, at most. With Hawk unfairly maligned on occasions for mine and HT never really too questionable regarding his intensity or effort either.

Which leaves an ageing Gaz. Who has definitely come back to try and recapture the possibility of team success. But I don't really believe he's planning to do that without bringing some commitment as well.

We have more than a few spurious attestations raised on this board. And I think the idea that a key source of our current issues is the self-satisfied attitude of players bloated by premiership success would have to just about be the leader amongst them.

The biggest difference between the glory years of '07-'11 and this team is not the attitude or commitment of the players. It's actually a matter seen in something as simple as the relatively objective measure of AA selection year upon year.

2007 9 AA's
2008 7 AA's
2009 5 AA's
2010 6 AA's
2011 3 AA's
2012 1 AA (Hawkins)
2013 4 AA's
2014 1 AA (Selwood)
2015 0
2016 3 AA's (Selwood, Dangerfield, Enright)
2017 2 AA's (Selwood, Dangerfield)

With 2018 looking right now as if Stewart could/should make the extended squad as well. But nobody else is jumping off the page as another possible addition the squad, let alone the final team.

That's 30 AA's in five years over the premiership years. With 11 coming in the six full years since then.

And since 2014, only two current players have earned AA selection. With one of them new to the club in 2016.

So the current malaise of regularly seeming just about good enough but then being flattened under the weight of extreme pressure actually fits well with the notion that we had a simply stellar team for a number of years, and have a far more middling squad now.

For mine, that's a more reasonable explanation for our inability to be consistently elite, rather than the convenient yet specious idea that we have too many players on the current list sated by past glories.
 
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Wracks up the disposals but does nowhere near the damage he used to. He can get over 30 and I would struggle to remember the majority of them.

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What about that beautiful goal against the demons! Nope, of course he isn’t as damaging or constructive as he once was. Selwood and Dangerfield -you could say the same about them too at the moment, couldn’t you? Think you are being a bit tough on him. I mean I don’t know what you were expecting.
Thought he was pretty good in demons, Hawks, pies games and the WC game till he got injured. He just has to play a part in certain games that matter. Still has an understanding of the game and an ability to hit targets. He will be fine.
 
When I’ve got a bit more time I’m going to look at the stats on this: does Geelong lose more games it should than other teams?

It certainly seems like it but I suspect it’s confirmation bias as you say.

I suspect so, too. But then again, maybe not.

We are (or were) stastical outliers for winning close ones, can we also be statistical outliers for losing post-bye? Losing to 'lesser' teams when we're favourites?

Are any/all of those things statistical quirks or are they part of 'who we are'.

It'll be a fascinating look, I reckon.
Data since 2015. Heavy favourite = $1.30 or less.

B40E6259-2781-4BF7-9125-764F8751134C.jpeg

I think this proves what we feared!
 
Data since 2015. Heavy favourite = $1.30 or less.

View attachment 500477

I think this proves what we feared!

Whoooooooaaaaaaa - good research there, catempire !

Of teams with 20+ games of heavy favouritism, we're far and away the worst. That's really telling. We're dropping almost a third of 'should win' games. Teams with 30+ games doesn't look much better.

Of course there are other factors that feed into it, but on the surface that's....confirming what we all sorta, kinda wondered.

Tipping the Eagles when they're heavy favourites looks like a certainty (I suspect it also doesn't offer the best odds!)

Hope I read the table right, numbers aren't always my strong suit!
 
Whoooooooaaaaaaa - good research there, catempire !

Of teams with 20+ games of heavy favouritism, we're far and away the worst. That's really telling. We're dropping almost a third of 'should win' games. Teams with 30+ games doesn't look much better.

Of course there are other factors that feed into it, but on the surface that's....confirming what we all sorta, kinda wondered.

Tipping the Eagles when they're heavy favourites looks like a certainty (I suspect it also doesn't offer the best odds!)

Hope I read the table right, numbers aren't always my strong suit!
Yep, but if the eagles had to play several more of their home games at the G, like we do, maybe their win/loss ratio would look worse. Am assuming most of our ‘unexpected’ losses are at the G.
 

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Yep, but if the eagles had to play several more of their home games at the G, like we do, maybe their win/loss ratio would look worse. Am assuming most of our ‘unexpected’ losses are at the G.

That would be one of the 'other factors' I was talking about - it'd be interesting to see that.

Who do we play at the G that we'd be heavy favourites for? Collingwood (their win/loss record against us since 2005 is better than ANYONE else's in the league), Essendon (yep), Richmond, Carlton (if Etihad poses problems for us?). Hawthorn we'd never be heavy favourites for - and we tend to win those anyway.

That would account for a few.
 
Just heard a guy on 6PM news ask, how will The Blues bounce back this week?
Great! that's all we need.
 
That would be one of the 'other factors' I was talking about - it'd be interesting to see that.

Who do we play at the G that we'd be heavy favourites for? Collingwood (their win/loss record against us since 2005 is better than ANYONE else's in the league), Essendon (yep), Richmond, Carlton (if Etihad poses problems for us?). Hawthorn we'd never be heavy favourites for - and we tend to win those anyway.

That would account for a few.
I would think we rarely lose at K.park ( even against swans we can’t be heavy favs at home).
We must have a pretty good w/l ratio at Etihad.
There can’t be that many games that we have been ‘heavy favs’ for in last 3 years.
So it must be pies and bombers at the g. But we all know we are not heavy favs for those games!
 
I would think we rarely lose at K.park ( even against swans we can’t be heavy favs at home).
We must have a pretty good w/l ratio at Etihad.
There can’t be that many games that we have been ‘heavy favs’ for in last 3 years.
So it must be pies and bombers at the g. But we all know we are not heavy favs for those games!

There have been 29 games we've been heavy favourites since 2015, according to catempire 's data, where 'heavy favourite' is defined as odds of $1.30 or less to win head to head.

I reckon the 'heavy favourite' games we win are the ones we play as true home matches, the ones we lose might be the occasional away match at the G and some random ones like a dropped Gold Coast game or something?

I wonder what the odds were for the Bombers and Collingwood games have been. Collingwood haven't been travelling very well over the past few years, but they usually step up a gear for us....hrm!
 
Talking Footy dissecting the Essendon vs Geelong game. All talk about how good Essendon were.

Carey says it was all about intent, angry Woosha etc like he was turning back the clock to his time as the Eagles captain.
 
Darcy giving a verbal wristy to Dyson Heppell about his endeavour to meet with the young leaders and apologise for being crap.
 

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